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The turnover-pulse hypothesis, formulated by
paleontologist Paleontology, also spelled as palaeontology or palæontology, is the scientific study of the life of the past, mainly but not exclusively through the study of fossils. Paleontologists use fossils as a means to classify organisms, measure geolo ...
Elisabeth Vrba Elisabeth S. Vrba (May 27, 1942 – February 5, 2025) was an American paleontologist at Yale University who developed the turnover-pulse hypothesis. Background Vrba was born in Hamburg, Germany. In 1944, following the death of her father, sh ...
, suggests that major changes to the
climate Climate is the long-term weather pattern in a region, typically averaged over 30 years. More rigorously, it is the mean and variability of meteorological variables over a time spanning from months to millions of years. Some of the meteoro ...
or
ecosystem An ecosystem (or ecological system) is a system formed by Organism, organisms in interaction with their Biophysical environment, environment. The Biotic material, biotic and abiotic components are linked together through nutrient cycles and en ...
often result in a period of rapid
extinction Extinction is the termination of an organism by the death of its Endling, last member. A taxon may become Functional extinction, functionally extinct before the death of its last member if it loses the capacity to Reproduction, reproduce and ...
and high turnover of new species (a "pulse") across multiple different lineages. Changes may include climate change, tectonic plate shifting, and catastrophes, among other things. It can be seen as an extension of the concept of
evolutionary radiation An evolutionary radiation is an increase in taxonomic diversity that is caused by elevated rates of speciation, that may or may not be associated with an increase in morphological disparity. A significantly large and diverse radiation within ...
from a single to a multi-
clade In biology, a clade (), also known as a Monophyly, monophyletic group or natural group, is a group of organisms that is composed of a common ancestor and all of its descendants. Clades are the fundamental unit of cladistics, a modern approach t ...
context.


Theory

Ecosystems periodically experience significant disruptions which cause
mass extinction An extinction event (also known as a mass extinction or biotic crisis) is a widespread and rapid decrease in the biodiversity on Earth. Such an event is identified by a sharp fall in the diversity and abundance of multicellular organisms. It occ ...
s and
speciation Speciation is the evolutionary process by which populations evolve to become distinct species. The biologist Orator F. Cook coined the term in 1906 for cladogenesis, the splitting of lineages, as opposed to anagenesis, phyletic evolution within ...
. Vrba proposes that changes in the climate, through their effect on the physical environment, result in the "division of nimalpopulations into geographically and genetically isolated groups", which subsequently evolve into separate species. She also predicts that within an ecosystem this should occur for different groups of animals at roughly the same time, creating a "synchronous pulse" across multiple lineages. The hypothesis was developed to explain the different patterns of evolution seen in African antelopes. Vrba argued that the mammalian fauna of East Africa experienced a rapid burst of extinction and speciation between 2.8Ma and 2.5Ma, caused by a large fluctuation in temperature. During this event, so the hypothesis states, many species attempted to move from their now uninhabitable
habitat In ecology, habitat refers to the array of resources, biotic factors that are present in an area, such as to support the survival and reproduction of a particular species. A species' habitat can be seen as the physical manifestation of its ...
s and later developed different
adaptation In biology, adaptation has three related meanings. Firstly, it is the dynamic evolutionary process of natural selection that fits organisms to their environment, enhancing their evolutionary fitness. Secondly, it is a state reached by the p ...
s in their new environments, evolving into different species, such as the antelopes investigated by Vrba, which evolved from woodland browsers to grassland grazers. Vrba's support for the idea that different clades would all adapt synchronously and alongside climate events came from the fossil record of rodents from the Omo river valley.


Hominins

Vrba later proposed these changes as the spark for the emergence of the ''Homo'' lineage, as distinct from other
hominins The Hominini (hominins) form a taxonomic tribe of the subfamily Homininae (hominines). They comprise two extant genera: ''Homo'' (humans) and '' Pan'' (chimpanzees and bonobos), and in standard usage exclude the genus ''Gorilla'' (gorillas), ...
, which is dated to around this time. This aligns with the savannah hypothesis (or "aridity hypothesis"), which suggests that increasing aridity led to the growth and expansion of the
savannah A savanna or savannah is a mixed woodland-grassland (i.e. grassy woodland) biome and ecosystem characterised by the trees being sufficiently widely spaced so that the canopy does not close. The open canopy allows sufficient light to reach th ...
, requiring the hominins to come down from the trees and walk on two legs. The earliest archaeological sites containing tools also date to this period. However, it is still possible that the genus ''Homo'' had already evolved before the climate event.


Criticism

The main opposing viewpoint is the Red Queen hypothesis, proposed by Leigh Van Valen, which holds that extinction occurs in a constant turnover, instead of pulses. Studies on fossils from Turkana basin at the time of the conjectured dramatic shift 2.5 million years ago found that the rate of adaptation was significantly less than had been predicted by the turnover-pulse hypothesis, with a 50% to 60% species turnover spread over 1 million years instead of a 90% turnover in a few hundred thousand.Potts, Richard
"Environmental Hypotheses of Hominin Evolution."
Yearbook of Physical Anthropology, 1998. Web. 29 Oct. 2015.
Suggested explanations for the discrepancy include that "variations in fossil abundance through time skewed Vrba's data, creating a false peak" or that the "Turkana rift valley—which held a river bounded by woodland at this time—was buffered from the dramatic climatic shifts". A change to a cooler, dryer climate at some point between 2.8Ma and 2.5Ma is widely accepted (and corroborated by the composition of sediment layers on the seafloor), but peaks of adaptation among different species in East Africa have been noted at different times, meaning that though "large-mammal evidence is consistent with the idea of a faunal change in the late
Pliocene The Pliocene ( ; also Pleiocene) is the epoch (geology), epoch in the geologic time scale that extends from 5.33 to 2.58..there is currently no agreement about its extent and precise date." While there is a consensus that major climatic events cause widespread extinction, other studies of East Africa and other regions have failed to identify any pulse-like events resulting in synchronous evolution or speciation, and this likely relies on local conditions.


References

{{DEFAULTSORT:Turnover-Pulse Hypothesis Paleoanthropology