Tobias Adrian (born 23 July 1971) is a German and American

economist An economist is a professional and practitioner in the social sciences, social science discipline of economics. The individual may also study, develop, and apply theories and concepts from economics and write about economic policy. Within this ...

who has been Financial Counsellor of the

International Monetary Fund The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is a major financial agency of the United Nations, and an international financial institution funded by 191 member countries, with headquarters in Washington, D.C. It is regarded as the global lender of las ...

and Head of their Monetary and Capital Markets Department since 2017. He was previously employed at the

Federal Reserve Bank of New York The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is one of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks of the United States. It is responsible for the Second District of the Federal Reserve System, which encompasses the New York (state), State of New York, the 12 norther ...

, where he was a senior vice president and the associate director of the Research and Statistics Group. His research covers aspects of risk to the wider economy of developments in

capital markets A capital market is a financial market in which long-term debt (over a year) or equity-backed securities are bought and sold, in contrast to a money market where short-term debt is bought and sold. Capital markets channel the wealth of savers t ...

. His work has covered the

2008 financial crisis The 2008 financial crisis, also known as the global financial crisis (GFC), was a major worldwide financial crisis centered in the United States. The causes of the 2008 crisis included excessive speculation on housing values by both homeowners ...

, monetary policy transmission, and the

yield curve In finance, the yield curve is a graph which depicts how the Yield to maturity, yields on debt instruments – such as bonds – vary as a function of their years remaining to Maturity (finance), maturity. Typically, the graph's horizontal ...

Early life and education

Adrian was born in Kronberg, West Germany and attended Humboldtschule, Bad Homburg. After studying at

Goethe University Frankfurt Goethe University Frankfurt () is a public research university located in Frankfurt am Main, Germany. It was founded in 1914 as a citizens' university, which means it was founded and funded by the wealthy and active liberal citizenry of Frankfurt ...

Paris Dauphine University Paris Dauphine University - PSL () is a Grande École and public institution of higher education and research based in Paris, France, Collegiate university, constituent college of PSL University. As of 2022, Dauphine has 9,400 students in 8 fields ...

, and the

London School of Economics The London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), established in 1895, is a public research university in London, England, and a member institution of the University of London. The school specialises in the social sciences. Founded ...

, he studied for a Ph.D. at the

Massachusetts Institute of Technology The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) is a Private university, private research university in Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States. Established in 1861, MIT has played a significant role in the development of many areas of moder ...

, graduating in 2003. His doctoral thesis was entitled "Learning, dynamics of beliefs, and asset pricing".

Career

While working at the Federal Reserve, Adrian made substantial contributions to the role of financial intermediaries in

monetary policy Monetary policy is the policy adopted by the monetary authority of a nation to affect monetary and other financial conditions to accomplish broader objectives like high employment and price stability (normally interpreted as a low and stable rat ...

transmission, with

Hyun-Song Shin Hyun Song Shin (; born 1959) is a South Korean economic theorist and financial economist who focuses on global games. He has been the Economic Adviser and Head of Research of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) since May 1, 2014. Pre ...

. He also documented how the inversion of the yield curve can be viewed as a causal transmission channel for monetary policy tightening, with Hyun-Song Shin and . This is based on earlier work with Estrella that documented the forecasting power of the yield curve. Adrian also worked on widely adopted yield curve models with Richard Crump and . Together with

Markus Brunnermeier Markus Konrad Brunnermeier (born March 22, 1969) is an economist, who is the Princeton University Department of Economics, Edwards S. Sanford Professor of Economics at Princeton University. Brunnermeier is a faculty member of Princeton's Princet ...

of Princeton University, Adrian created one of the first measures of

systemic risk In finance, systemic risk is the risk of collapse of an entire financial system or entire market, as opposed to the risk associated with any one individual entity, group or component of a system, that can be contained therein without harming the ...

, the CoVaR. This measure, which takes into account spillover and contagion effects between asset classes and industries, was used to

stress test Stress testing is a form of deliberately intense or thorough testing, used to determine the stability of a given system, critical infrastructure or entity. It involves testing beyond normal operational capacity, often to a breaking point, in orde ...

banks following the

great recession The Great Recession was a period of market decline in economies around the world that occurred from late 2007 to mid-2009.

. Adrian has published extensively on the topic of

market liquidity In business, economics or investment, market liquidity is a market's feature whereby an individual or firm can quickly purchase or sell an asset without causing a drastic change in the asset's price. Liquidity involves the trade-off between the ...

, including policy effects and its procyclical behavior. He has also written on the importance of the

shadow banking system The shadow banking system is a term for the collection of non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs) that legally provide services similar to traditional commercial banks but outside normal banking regulations. S&P Global estimates that, at end-2 ...

in capital markets, and its prominent role in the

. More recently, Adrian has studied how financial conditions present asymmetric risks to

GDP growth Gross domestic product (GDP) is a monetary measure of the total market value of all the final goods and services produced and rendered in a specific time period by a country or countries. GDP is often used to measure the economic performanc ...

with and . This work led to a novel model for economic forecasting, under which multimodal distributions (allowing both "good" and "bad" outcomes) arise naturally under tight financial conditions. With

Patrick Bolton Patrick Bolton (born June 11, 1957, Dublin, Ireland) is the Barbara and David Zalaznick Professor of Business at Columbia Business School (2005–present) and a visiting professor of finance at Imperial College London (2018–present). He is a p ...

and Alissa Kleinnijenhuis, Adrian has conducted a first empirical study of the costs and benefits of phasing out coal around the world, and documented a large net social gain on the order of trillions. Their work establishes a novel economic foundation for climate finance.

Selected works

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References

{{DEFAULTSORT:Adrian, Tobias Living people 21st-century German economists 21st-century American economists Federal Reserve economists International Monetary Fund people Alumni of the London School of Economics Massachusetts Institute of Technology alumni 1971 births