''The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History'' is a scholarly work by historian

David Hackett Fischer David Hackett Fischer (born December 2, 1935) is University Professor of History Emeritus at Brandeis University. Fischer's major works have covered topics ranging from large macroeconomic and cultural trends ('' Albion's Seed,'' '' The Great Wave ...

, published in 1996 by

Oxford University Press Oxford University Press (OUP) is the publishing house of the University of Oxford. It is the largest university press in the world. Its first book was printed in Oxford in 1478, with the Press officially granted the legal right to print books ...

. Hackett Fischer identified three complete

monetary Money is any item or verifiable record that is generally accepted as payment for goods and services and repayment of debts, such as taxes, in a particular country or socio-economic context. The primary functions which distinguish money are: med ...

waves in European history, each consisting of a price revolution, featuring high inflation, followed by a war crisis, followed by a new equilibrium. A fourth wave began, says Fischer, with the persistent monetary

inflation In economics, inflation is an increase in the average price of goods and services in terms of money. This increase is measured using a price index, typically a consumer price index (CPI). When the general price level rises, each unit of curre ...

of the 20th century.

First wave

Fischer says this began with the medieval price revolution, 1180-1350. There followed crisis in the 14th and 15th centuries, featuring the

Black Death The Black Death was a bubonic plague pandemic that occurred in Europe from 1346 to 1353. It was one of the list of epidemics, most fatal pandemics in human history; as many as people perished, perhaps 50% of Europe's 14th century population. ...

and

Hundred Years' War The Hundred Years' War (; 1337–1453) was a conflict between the kingdoms of Kingdom of England, England and Kingdom of France, France and a civil war in France during the Late Middle Ages. It emerged from feudal disputes over the Duchy ...

. Then equilibrium during the early

Renaissance The Renaissance ( , ) is a Periodization, period of history and a European cultural movement covering the 15th and 16th centuries. It marked the transition from the Middle Ages to modernity and was characterized by an effort to revive and sur ...

, 1400-1470.

Second wave

This began with the “price revolution of the 16th century”, in fact lasting from about 1470-1590. Crisis followed; depression, famine, the

Thirty Years' War The Thirty Years' War, fought primarily in Central Europe between 1618 and 1648, was one of the most destructive conflicts in History of Europe, European history. An estimated 4.5 to 8 million soldiers and civilians died from battle, famine ...

(1618–1648),

English Civil War The English Civil War or Great Rebellion was a series of civil wars and political machinations between Cavaliers, Royalists and Roundhead, Parliamentarians in the Kingdom of England from 1642 to 1651. Part of the wider 1639 to 1653 Wars of th ...

Dutch Revolt The Eighty Years' War or Dutch Revolt (; 1566/1568–1648) was an armed conflict in the Habsburg Netherlands between disparate groups of rebels and the Spanish government. The causes of the war included the Reformation, centralisation, exc ...

and other conflicts. According to Fischer the

Enlightenment Enlightenment or enlighten may refer to: Age of Enlightenment * Age of Enlightenment, period in Western intellectual history from the late 17th to late 18th century, centered in France but also encompassing (alphabetically by country or culture): ...

equilibrium which followed lasted from 1660-1730.

Third wave

The price revolution of the 18th century began about 1729. Commodity prices rose in England (sic), France and the United States (sic!). large population increases occurred in most of Europe. Wage rates failed to keep pace with grain price rises, and wealth inequality increased. A rising spirit of rebellion led to a “revolutionary crisis”, 1789-1820. The French Revolution was followed by the

Napoleonic wars {{Infobox military conflict , conflict = Napoleonic Wars , partof = the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars , image = Napoleonic Wars (revision).jpg , caption = Left to right, top to bottom:Battl ...

and

Latin American wars of independence The Latin American wars of independence may collectively refer to all of these anti-colonial military conflicts during the decolonization of Latin America around the early 19th century: * Spanish American wars of independence (1808–1833), multipl ...

. Stability was regained in the “Victorian equilibrium”, 1820-96. Consumer prices fell in England (sic). There were revolutions in transportation, agriculture, industry and commerce. But by the end of this era, young Englishmen were “bankrupt, bored and bloody-minded… the dark clouds began to gather.”

Fourth wave

Fischer identifies a further “price revolution” in the 20th century, by which time there were no new lands left to explore or colonise. The

German hyperinflation German(s) may refer to: * Germany, the country of the Germans and German things **Germania (Roman era) * Germans, citizens of Germany, people of German ancestry, or native speakers of the German language ** For citizenship in Germany, see also Ge ...

of 1923 and the

Great Depression The Great Depression was a severe global economic downturn from 1929 to 1939. The period was characterized by high rates of unemployment and poverty, drastic reductions in industrial production and international trade, and widespread bank and ...

of 1929 were followed by accelerating worldwide inflation after 1962. Though inflation had ended by 1996, Fischer speculated (1996) that “the great wave of the 20th century (approaches) its climax” and that “A major war in the Middle East or eastern Europe or elsewhere could reignite inflation.”

Conclusions

Fischer observed that these movements were not cycles but waves, with no fixed periodicity. Each wave had six common features. Chronologically, these were; 1), prolonged prosperity, 2) political disorder, 3) inflation spiral, 4) spiritual crisis, 5) revolution, deflation, 6) long era of equilibrium.

Limitations of the theory

Fischer predicted (1996) that “the price revolution of the 20th century has yet to reach its climax”. Recent works by

Steven Pinker Steven Arthur Pinker (born September 18, 1954) is a Canadian-American cognitive psychology, cognitive psychologist, psycholinguistics, psycholinguist, popular science author, and public intellectual. He is an advocate of evolutionary psycholo ...

and Joshua S Goldstein suggest that war and violence are decreasing, a trend which seems at odds with some of Fisher”s conclusions. Fischer did remind his readers that volatility would occur and increase.

Paul Krugman Paul Robin Krugman ( ; born February 28, 1953) is an American New Keynesian economics, New Keynesian economist who is the Distinguished Professor of Economics at the CUNY Graduate Center, Graduate Center of the City University of New York. He ...

offers the comment that “most big-think books about history offer only strained analogies mixed with pretentious statements of the obvious.” Thomas J Archdeacon calls the theory “vivid”, “shrewd” and “strongly persuasive”, but suspects it is “blood in the water for academic sharks hunting outsiders venturing into their territory.” The argument that the world is heading for a crisis “has the vagueness of analogy.” In a long and detailed review, John H Munro of Toronto university deplores the absence of mathematical modeling; the theory is “rather too neat” for him to accept. The book has also been criticised for having a Eurocentric or western bias, with no data at all about the significant Asian economies.Andre Gunder Frank and Robert Denemark, Reorienting the 19th century, Routledge, 2015, p 45 On the other hand, in the wake of the disruption of the

COVID-19 pandemic The COVID-19 pandemic (also known as the coronavirus pandemic and COVID pandemic), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), began with an disease outbreak, outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, in December ...

over 2020-21, the 2022

Russian invasion of Ukraine On 24 February 2022, , starting the largest and deadliest war in Europe since World War II, in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, conflict between the two countries which began in 2014. The fighting has caused hundreds of thou ...

, and the 2024 United States Presidential election, Fisher's argument that the west is heading for a crisis appears more convincing.

References

Notes

All pages are page numbers in the book. {{DEFAULTSORT:Great Wave, The Political books Books about economic history Oxford University Press books 1996 non-fiction books