clinical trial Clinical trials are prospective biomedical or behavioral research studies on human subject research, human participants designed to answer specific questions about biomedical or behavioral interventions, including new treatments (such as novel v ...

s, a surrogate endpoint (or surrogate marker) is a measure of effect of a specific treatment that may correlate with a ''real'' clinical endpoint but does not necessarily have a guaranteed relationship. The

National Institutes of Health The National Institutes of Health, commonly referred to as NIH (with each letter pronounced individually), is the primary agency of the United States government The federal government of the United States (U.S. federal government or U ...

(USA) defines surrogate endpoint as "a

biomarker In biomedical contexts, a biomarker, or biological marker, is a measurable indicator of some biological state or condition. Biomarkers are often measured and evaluated using blood, urine, or soft tissues to examine normal biological processes, p ...

intended to substitute for a clinical endpoint". Surrogate markers are used when the primary endpoint is undesired (e.g., death), or when the number of events is very small, thus making it impractical to conduct a clinical trial to gather a statistically significant number of endpoints. The FDA and other regulatory agencies will often accept evidence from

s that show a direct clinical benefit to surrogate markers.Alexandra Goho, "An Imperfect Substitute" ''CR Magazine'', Spring 2009
/ref> Surrogate endpoints can be obtained from different modalities, such as, behavioural or cognitive scores, or

s from

Electroencephalography Electroencephalography (EEG) is a method to record an electrogram of the spontaneous electrical activity of the brain. The biosignals detected by EEG have been shown to represent the postsynaptic potentials of pyramidal neurons in the neocor ...

( qEEG), MRI, PET, or biochemical biomarkers. A correlate does not make a surrogate. It is a common misconception that if an outcome is a correlate (that is, correlated with the true clinical outcome) it can be used as a valid surrogate end point (that is, a replacement for the true clinical outcome). However, proper justification for such replacement requires that the effect of the intervention on the surrogate end point predicts the effect on the clinical outcome: a much stronger condition than correlation. In this context, the term ''Prentice criteria'' is used. The term "surrogate" should not be used in describing end points. Instead, descriptions of results and interpretations should be formulated in terms that designate the specific nature and category of variable assessed. A surrogate endpoint of a clinical trial is a laboratory measurement or a physical sign used as a substitute for a clinically meaningful endpoint that measures directly how a patient feels, functions or survives. Changes induced by a therapy on a surrogate endpoint are expected to reflect changes in a clinically meaningful endpoint.

Examples

Cardiovascular disease

A commonly used example is

cholesterol Cholesterol is any of a class of certain organic molecules called lipids. It is a sterol (or modified steroid), a type of lipid. Cholesterol is biosynthesized by all animal cells and is an essential structural component of animal cell membr ...

. While elevated cholesterol levels increase the likelihood for

heart disease Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a class of diseases that involve the heart or blood vessels. CVD includes coronary artery diseases (CAD) such as angina and myocardial infarction (commonly known as a heart attack). Other CVDs include stroke, ...

, the relationship is not linear - many people with normal cholesterol develop heart disease, and many with high cholesterol do not. "Death from heart disease" is the endpoint of interest, but "cholesterol" is the surrogate marker. A clinical trial may show that a particular drug (for example, simvastatin (Zocor)) is effective in reducing cholesterol, without showing directly that simvastatin prevents death. Proof of Zocor's efficacy in reducing cardiovascular disease was only presented five years after its original introduction, and then only for secondary prevention. In another case,

AstraZeneca AstraZeneca plc () is a British-Swedish multinational pharmaceutical and biotechnology company with its headquarters at the Cambridge Biomedical Campus in Cambridge, England. It has a portfolio of products for major diseases in areas includ ...

was accused of marketing

rosuvastatin Rosuvastatin, sold under the brand name Crestor among others, is a statin medication, used to prevent cardiovascular disease in those at high risk and treat abnormal lipids. It is recommended to be used together with dietary changes, exercise, ...

(Crestor) without providing hard endpoint data, relying instead on surrogate endpoints. The company countered that rosuvastatin had been tested on larger groups of patients than any other drug in the class, and that its effects should be comparable to the other statins.

Cancer

Progression Free Survival is a prominent example in

Oncology Oncology is a branch of medicine that deals with the study, treatment, diagnosis and prevention of cancer. A medical professional who practices oncology is an ''oncologist''. The name's etymological origin is the Greek word ὄγκος (''ó ...

contexts. There are examples of cancer drugs approved on the basis of progression-free survival failed to show subsequent improvements in overall survival in subsequent studies. In breast cancer, Bevacizumab (Avastin) initially gained approval from the

Food and Drug Administration The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA or US FDA) is a federal agency of the Department of Health and Human Services. The FDA is responsible for protecting and promoting public health through the control and supervision of food ...

, but subsequently had its license revoked. More patient focused surrogate endpoints may offer a more meaningful alternative such as Overall Treatment Utility.

Infectious disease

In HIV/AIDS medicine, CD4 counts and viral loads are used as surrogate markers for drug approval for clinical trials. In hepatitis C medicine, the surrogate endpoint "Sustained Virological Response" has been used for the approval of expensive drugs known as Direct Acting Antivirals. The validity of this surrogate endpoint for predicting clinical outcomes has been challenged. For several vaccines (anthrax, hepatitis A, etc), the induction of detectable antibodies in blood is used as a surrogate marker for vaccine effectiveness, as exposure of individuals to an actual pathogen is considered unethical.

Criticism

There have been a number of instances when studies using surrogate markers have been used to show benefit from a particular treatment, but later, a repeat study looking at endpoints has not shown a benefit, or has even shown a harm. In 2021, the FDA came under heavy criticism for the approval of an alzheimer's drug called Aduhelm based on a surrogate endpoint that was later shown to be based on fraudulent data.

References