''Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction'' is a book by
Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner released in 2015. It details findings from
The Good Judgment Project
The Good Judgment Project (GJP) is an organization dedicated to "harnessing the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events". It was co-created by Philip E. Tetlock (author of '' Superforecasting'' and ''Expert Political Judgment''), decision sc ...
.
Reviews
''
The Economist
''The Economist'' is a British weekly newspaper printed in demitab format and published digitally. It focuses on current affairs, international business, politics, technology, and culture. Based in London, the newspaper is owned by The Econ ...
'' reports that
superforecaster
A superforecaster is a person who makes forecasts that can be shown by statistical means to have been consistently more accurate than the general public or experts. Superforecasters sometimes use modern analytical and statistical methodologies to ...
s are clever (with a good mental attitude), but not necessarily geniuses. It reports on the treasure trove of data coming from
The Good Judgment Project
The Good Judgment Project (GJP) is an organization dedicated to "harnessing the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events". It was co-created by Philip E. Tetlock (author of '' Superforecasting'' and ''Expert Political Judgment''), decision sc ...
, showing that accurately selected amateur forecasters (and the confidence they had in their forecasts) were often more accurately tuned than experts.
According to ''
The Wall Street Journal
''The Wall Street Journal'' is an American business-focused, international daily newspaper based in New York City, with international editions also available in Chinese and Japanese. The ''Journal'', along with its Asian editions, is published ...
'', ''Superforecasting'' is "The most important book on decision making since
Daniel Kahneman
Daniel Kahneman (; he, דניאל כהנמן; born March 5, 1934) is an Israeli-American psychologist and economist notable for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making, as well as behavioral economics, for which he was awarde ...
's
Thinking, Fast and Slow
''Thinking, Fast and Slow'' is a 2011 book by psychologist Daniel Kahneman.
The book's main thesis is a differentiation between two modes of thought: "System 1" is fast, instinctive and emotional; "System 2" is slower, more deliberative, and mo ...
."
The ''
Harvard Business Review
''Harvard Business Review'' (''HBR'') is a general management magazine published by Harvard Business Publishing, a wholly owned subsidiary of Harvard University. ''HBR'' is published six times a year and is headquartered in Brighton, Ma ...
'' paired it to the book ''
How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking'' by
Jordan Ellenberg
Jordan Stuart Ellenberg (born October 30, 1971) is an American mathematician who is a professor of mathematics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. His research involves arithmetic geometry. He is also an author of both fiction and non-ficti ...
.
See also
*
Guesstimate
''Guesstimate'' is an informal English portmanteau of ''guess'' and ''estimate'', first used by American statisticians in 1934 or 1935.[Fermi problem
In physics or engineering education, a Fermi problem, Fermi quiz, Fermi question, Fermi estimate, order-of-magnitude problem, order-of-magnitude estimate, or order estimation is an estimation problem designed to teach dimensional analysis or ...]
References
External links
Daily catch-up: dart-throwing chimpanzees and how to predict the future , Comment , Voices , The IndependentSUPERFORECASTING , Kirkus ReviewsSuperforecasting: The Art and Science of PredictionGood Judgment® Open
American non-fiction books
2015 non-fiction books
Forecasting
Crown Publishing Group books
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