Strategic Foresight Group (SFG) is a

think tank A think tank, or public policy institute, is a research institute that performs research and advocacy concerning topics such as social policy, political strategy, economics, military, technology, and culture. Most think tanks are non-governme ...

based in India that works on

global issues A global issue is a matter of Social issue#Types of social issues, public concern worldwide. This list of global issues presents problems or phenomena affecting people around the world, including but not limited to widespread social issues, econ ...

. It was established in 2002. SFG has worked with governments and national institutions of 60 countries from around the world. It produces scenarios and policy concepts that have been discussed in the

United Nations Security Council The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is one of the six principal organs of the United Nations (UN) and is charged with ensuring international peace and security, recommending the admission of new UN members to the General Assembly, an ...

Parliament of India The Parliament of India (ISO 15919, ISO: ) is the supreme legislative body of the Government of India, Government of the Republic of India. It is a bicameralism, bicameral legislature composed of the Rajya Sabha (Council of States) and the Lok ...

, the

European Parliament The European Parliament (EP) is one of the two legislative bodies of the European Union and one of its seven institutions. Together with the Council of the European Union (known as the Council and informally as the Council of Ministers), it ...

Oxford University The University of Oxford is a collegiate research university in Oxford, England. There is evidence of teaching as early as 1096, making it the oldest university in the English-speaking world and the second-oldest continuously operating u ...

Cambridge University The University of Cambridge is a Public university, public collegiate university, collegiate research university in Cambridge, England. Founded in 1209, the University of Cambridge is the List of oldest universities in continuous operation, wo ...

House of Commons of the United Kingdom The House of Commons is the lower house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom. Like the upper house, the House of Lords, it meets in the Palace of Westminster in London, England. The House of Commons is an elected body consisting of 650 memb ...

House of Lords The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom. Like the lower house, the House of Commons of the United Kingdom, House of Commons, it meets in the Palace of Westminster in London, England. One of the oldest ext ...

World Bank The World Bank is an international financial institution that provides loans and Grant (money), grants to the governments of Least developed countries, low- and Developing country, middle-income countries for the purposes of economic development ...

World Economic Forum The World Economic Forum (WEF) is an international non-governmental organization, international advocacy non-governmental organization and think tank, based in Cologny, Canton of Geneva, Switzerland. It was founded on 24 January 1971 by German ...

, United Nations Alliance of Civilizations, and others. Sundeep Waslekar is the President of Strategic Foresight Group. Ilmas Futehally is the Vice President and Executive Director.

History

The founding of SFG coincided with a period of oscillating developments in India-Pakistan relations. SFG produced an assessment of the

cost of conflict Cost of Conflict is a tool which attempts to calculate the price of conflict to the human race. The idea is to examine this cost, not only in terms of the deaths and casualties and the economic costs borne by the people involved, but also the soc ...

between the two countries. India's then External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha, in a suo moto letter addressed to the President of SFG, described it as a valuable tool for the practitioners of foreign policy. SFG went on to undertake a similar exercise for

Sri Lanka Sri Lanka, officially the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka, also known historically as Ceylon, is an island country in South Asia. It lies in the Indian Ocean, southwest of the Bay of Bengal, separated from the Indian subcontinent, ...

. This report too attracted considerable attention. In 2005, its report, The Final Settlement created a public debate; for the first time it identified the centrality of the water dimension in the India-Pakistan relations. It was translated into

Urdu Urdu (; , , ) is an Indo-Aryan languages, Indo-Aryan language spoken chiefly in South Asia. It is the Languages of Pakistan, national language and ''lingua franca'' of Pakistan. In India, it is an Eighth Schedule to the Constitution of Indi ...

as well as Marathi. While SFG focused on

South Asia South Asia is the southern Subregion#Asia, subregion of Asia that is defined in both geographical and Ethnicity, ethnic-Culture, cultural terms. South Asia, with a population of 2.04 billion, contains a quarter (25%) of the world's populatio ...

including

India India, officially the Republic of India, is a country in South Asia. It is the List of countries and dependencies by area, seventh-largest country by area; the List of countries by population (United Nations), most populous country since ...

, in its initial period, it has since widened the scope of its work to address

terrorism Terrorism, in its broadest sense, is the use of violence against non-combatants to achieve political or ideological aims. The term is used in this regard primarily to refer to intentional violence during peacetime or in the context of war aga ...

clash of civilizations The "Clash of Civilizations" is a thesis that people's cultural and religious identities will be the primary source of conflict in the post–Cold War world. The American political scientist Samuel P. Huntington argued that future wars would be ...

, water security and global governance issues. In 2004, SFG convened a roundtable to prepare a common intellectual framework for deconstructing terror. Since then SFG has been invited by Prime Ministers, Ministers of Foreign Affairs and governments of several countries in

North America North America is a continent in the Northern Hemisphere, Northern and Western Hemisphere, Western hemispheres. North America is bordered to the north by the Arctic Ocean, to the east by the Atlantic Ocean, to the southeast by South Ameri ...

Europe Europe is a continent located entirely in the Northern Hemisphere and mostly in the Eastern Hemisphere. It is bordered by the Arctic Ocean to the north, the Atlantic Ocean to the west, the Mediterranean Sea to the south, and Asia to the east ...

Asia Asia ( , ) is the largest continent in the world by both land area and population. It covers an area of more than 44 million square kilometres, about 30% of Earth's total land area and 8% of Earth's total surface area. The continent, which ...

and the

Middle East The Middle East (term originally coined in English language) is a geopolitical region encompassing the Arabian Peninsula, the Levant, Turkey, Egypt, Iran, and Iraq. The term came into widespread usage by the United Kingdom and western Eur ...

for policy consultations. In June 2005, SFG and the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats in Europe, jointly convened a roundtable at the

Brussels Brussels, officially the Brussels-Capital Region, (All text and all but one graphic show the English name as Brussels-Capital Region.) is a Communities, regions and language areas of Belgium#Regions, region of Belgium comprising #Municipalit ...

, involving serving and former cabinet ministers and parliamentarians from the Middle East and

. The roundtable adopted th
Brussels Consensus
on the principles and policies for a safer world. At the roundtable, Dr. Wolfgang Gerhardt, Chairman of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation, said "Strategic Foresight Group has a track record in exploring value-based working solutions to the problems of society. This is their intention here (at the 3rd Roundtable). It is also our intention at the FNSt."

2006–2007: West-Islam relations

Th
Third International Roundtable
was organised by Strategic Foresight Group and the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe at the European Parliament, Brussels, on 26–27 November 2006. The Roundtable was endorsed by the League of Arab States. It engaged important public institutions from the Western and Islamic worlds. About 40 leaders from Europe, Asia and the Middle East participated in the Roundtable. They included serving cabinet ministers, former ministers, leaders of

parliamentary In modern politics and history, a parliament is a legislative body of government. Generally, a modern parliament has three functions: Representation (politics), representing the Election#Suffrage, electorate, making laws, and overseeing ...

groups, special envoys of the heads of multilateral organisations and directors of important institutions. The distinguished group recommended an Inclusive Semi Permanent Conference on Peace in the Middle East, Western Islamic Dialogue and Engagement Initiative, International Historical Study Group on Common Human Civilisation, Arab Islamic

Renaissance The Renaissance ( , ) is a Periodization, period of history and a European cultural movement covering the 15th and 16th centuries. It marked the transition from the Middle Ages to modernity and was characterized by an effort to revive and sur ...

Initiative and the promotion of the Compact of Dialogue-Democracy-Development. The Roundtable welcomed the Report of the High Level Group of the Alliance of Civilizations of the

United Nations The United Nations (UN) is the Earth, global intergovernmental organization established by the signing of the Charter of the United Nations, UN Charter on 26 June 1945 with the stated purpose of maintaining international peace and internationa ...

. At the beginning of 2007 Strategic Foresight Group brought out its global research report ''An Inclusive World: in which the West, Islam and the Rest have a stake''. Prof Shlomo Ben-Ami, former Foreign Minister of

Israel Israel, officially the State of Israel, is a country in West Asia. It Borders of Israel, shares borders with Lebanon to the north, Syria to the north-east, Jordan to the east, Egypt to the south-west, and the Mediterranean Sea to the west. Isr ...

describes this "as the most comprehensive approach to solve the crisis of our time that has ever been proposed." Prof Kamel Abu Jaber, former Foreign Minister of

Jordan Jordan, officially the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, is a country in the Southern Levant region of West Asia. Jordan is bordered by Syria to the north, Iraq to the east, Saudi Arabia to the south, and Israel and the occupied Palestinian ter ...

, calls it "hope in an otherwise hopeless international system." The philosophy of An Inclusive World could be subject of a new global debate to overcome the divides at the beginning of the 21st

century A century is a period of 100 years or 10 decades. Centuries are numbered ordinally in English and many other languages. The word ''century'' comes from the Latin ''centum'', meaning ''one hundred''. ''Century'' is sometimes abbreviated as c. ...

. The report was debated by

at one of the famous Oxford Union debates in May. It also featured three times in the debates at the House of Commons. The European Parliament and the League of Arab States circulated it widely among their members. It was translated into Arabic by the

Bibliotheca Alexandrina The Bibliotheca Alexandrina (Latin, 'Library of Alexandria'; , ) (BA) is a major library and cultural center on the shore of the Mediterranean Sea in Alexandria, Egypt. It is a commemoration of the Library of Alexandria, once one of the larg ...

based in Alexandria,

Egypt Egypt ( , ), officially the Arab Republic of Egypt, is a country spanning the Northeast Africa, northeast corner of Africa and Western Asia, southwest corner of Asia via the Sinai Peninsula. It is bordered by the Mediterranean Sea to northe ...

. Speaking on the Middle East at the World Economic Forum's Middle East Summit, Sundeep Waslekar said that the region's primary risk is a "triple deficit" – a democratization deficit combined with a development deficit leads to a dignity deficit, often manifested in instability and violence. One of the main conclusions of the Third International Roundtable was a proposal for the Inclusive Semi Permanent Conference for the Middle East. In 2008 SFG brought out a position paper on this subject, which was launched at the

in May 2008.

2008: Peace and Security

In 2008, SFG continued its work in the

Cost of conflict Cost of Conflict is a tool which attempts to calculate the price of conflict to the human race. The idea is to examine this cost, not only in terms of the deaths and casualties and the economic costs borne by the people involved, but also the soc ...

series, this time focussing on the Middle East, in alignment with its other work. The report on ''Cost of Conflict in the Middle East'' was launched at the United Nations office in Geneva in January 2009. It featured in floor debates in the House of Commons and House of Lords. It was discussed by a panel of ministers and senior diplomats at the United Nations Alliance of Civilizations when the latter hosted its forum in Istanbul in April 2009. The report was also discussed at the World Economic Forum Middle East summit at the Dead Sea in May 2009. It has since featured in several hundred newspapers, websites and blogs. In 2008, SFG came out with a report on 20 trends that would affect global security and economy in the next 20 years. In June 2008, SFG expanded the scope of its work with an international conference on Responsibility to the Future. It was co-hosted by the

United Nations Global Compact The United Nations Global Compact is a non-binding United Nations pact to get businesses and firms worldwide to adopt sustainable and socially responsible policies, and to report on their implementation. The UN Global Compact is the world's ...

, inaugurated by the

President of India The president of India (ISO 15919, ISO: ) is the head of state of the Republic of India. The president is the nominal head of the executive, the first citizen of the country, and the commander-in-chief, supreme commander of the Indian Armed ...

and attended by experts from 25 countries. Following the recommendations of the conference, SFG decided to address issues of water security in Asia and the Middle East.

2009–2014: Water security

In 2009, SFG decided to focus on preventing conflicts arising out of resource scarcity, with focus on water. An international workshop on Water Stress and Climate Change in the Himalayan River Basins was organised in August 2009 in

Kathmandu Kathmandu () is the capital and largest city of Nepal, situated in the central part of the country within the Kathmandu Valley. As per the 2021 Nepal census, it has a population of 845,767 residing in 105,649 households, with approximately 4 mi ...

bringing together experts and policy makers on water issues from

China China, officially the People's Republic of China (PRC), is a country in East Asia. With population of China, a population exceeding 1.4 billion, it is the list of countries by population (United Nations), second-most populous country after ...

Nepal Nepal, officially the Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal, is a landlocked country in South Asia. It is mainly situated in the Himalayas, but also includes parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plain. It borders the Tibet Autonomous Region of China Ch ...

Bangladesh Bangladesh, officially the People's Republic of Bangladesh, is a country in South Asia. It is the List of countries and dependencies by population, eighth-most populous country in the world and among the List of countries and dependencies by ...

and

. The Second International Workshop was held in

Dhaka Dhaka ( or ; , ), List of renamed places in Bangladesh, formerly known as Dacca, is the capital city, capital and list of cities and towns in Bangladesh, largest city of Bangladesh. It is one of the list of largest cities, largest and list o ...

in January 2010. It resulted in the Dhaka Declaration on Water Security. The Dhaka Declaration highlights the significance of the rivers that flow from the

Himalayas The Himalayas, or Himalaya ( ), is a mountain range in Asia, separating the plains of the Indian subcontinent from the Tibetan Plateau. The range has some of the Earth's highest peaks, including the highest, Mount Everest. More than list of h ...

and the urgent need for cooperation between Basin countries. It has been predicted that due to the combined effect of melting of glaciers, extreme weather events and pollution, the rivers in the Eastern Himalayas will lose their flow from anywhere from 5 to 20 percent by 2050. This will have affect river flows mostly in the lean period, undermining plans to produce

hydroelectricity Hydroelectricity, or hydroelectric power, is Electricity generation, electricity generated from hydropower (water power). Hydropower supplies 15% of the world's electricity, almost 4,210 TWh in 2023, which is more than all other Renewable energ ...

and promote inland water navigation in the region. The Dhaka Declaration proposes an exchange of scientific data, particularly in the low flow period and joint research projects. It underscores the risk of conflicts due to

water scarcity Water scarcity (closely related to water stress or water crisis) is the lack of fresh water resources to meet the standard water demand. There are two types of water scarcity. One is ''physical.'' The other is ''economic water scarcity''. Physic ...

and floods leading to migration on a large scale. A report titled ''The Himalayan Challenge: Water Security in Emerging Asia'' was published in June 2010. This report is the first of its kind which evaluates future water balance and risks in India, China, Nepal and Bangladesh until the year 2030. A second report titled ''Himalayan Solutions'' was published in January 2011. In February 2010, an international initiative on Water Security in the Middle East was launched at Montreux, Switzerland, on 15–16 February, with two workshops attracting the participation of 60 leading policymakers, including members of Parliament, former Cabinet Ministers, senior leaders of Water Commissions and heads of research institutions from across the Middle East. In preparation for the workshops, SFG had held consultations with leaders in the Middle East, and distinguished experts from several countries in the region. A workshop was held in Sanliurfa, a town in

Turkey Turkey, officially the Republic of Türkiye, is a country mainly located in Anatolia in West Asia, with a relatively small part called East Thrace in Southeast Europe. It borders the Black Sea to the north; Georgia (country), Georgia, Armen ...

close to the Syrian border to discuss collaborative solutions to the issue of water security in the Middle East. Participants at the level of former Ministers and heads of Departments in Water Ministries participated in the workshop. A report titled ''The Blue Peace: Rethinking Middle East Water'' was launched by the President of Switzerland, Micheline Calmy-Rey. In April 2012, a High-Level Group was established under the Chairmanship of HRH Prince Hassan bin Talal of Jordan. In 2012, SFG began addressing the issue of sustainable and collaborative solutions to the

Nile River The Nile (also known as the Nile River or River Nile) is a major north-flowing river in northeastern Africa. It flows into the Mediterranean Sea. The Nile is the longest river in Africa. It has historically been considered the longest river i ...

Basin in

Africa Africa is the world's second-largest and second-most populous continent after Asia. At about 30.3 million km2 (11.7 million square miles) including adjacent islands, it covers 20% of Earth's land area and 6% of its total surfac ...

. The Nile has been governed by agreements that date back to colonial times and give

and

Sudan Sudan, officially the Republic of the Sudan, is a country in Northeast Africa. It borders the Central African Republic to the southwest, Chad to the west, Libya to the northwest, Egypt to the north, the Red Sea to the east, Eritrea and Ethiopi ...

majority share of water. The Nile Basin Countries have drafted a new Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) to replace the old agreements. This has created tensions between riparian countries. SFG organised a workshop in

Zurich Zurich (; ) is the list of cities in Switzerland, largest city in Switzerland and the capital of the canton of Zurich. It is in north-central Switzerland, at the northwestern tip of Lake Zurich. , the municipality had 448,664 inhabitants. The ...

in early 2012 bringing together members of parliaments, diplomats and scholars from these regions to discuss current and future prospects for the River. It published a report ''Blue Peace for the Nile'' which was launched on 22 March 2013, that also happens to be

World Water Day World Water Day is an annual United Nations (UN) observance day held on 22 March that highlights the importance of fresh water. The day is used to advocate for the sustainable management of Water resources, freshwater resources. The theme of eac ...

. SFG has developed the concept of Mega Arc of Hydro Insecurity, spanning from Vietnam and Thailand in the East across

Pakistan Pakistan, officially the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, is a country in South Asia. It is the List of countries and dependencies by population, fifth-most populous country, with a population of over 241.5 million, having the Islam by country# ...

Afghanistan Afghanistan, officially the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, is a landlocked country located at the crossroads of Central Asia and South Asia. It is bordered by Pakistan to the Durand Line, east and south, Iran to the Afghanistan–Iran borde ...

to the

and

and further downwards from

Tanzania Tanzania, officially the United Republic of Tanzania, is a country in East Africa within the African Great Lakes region. It is bordered by Uganda to the northwest; Kenya to the northeast; the Indian Ocean to the east; Mozambique and Malawi to t ...

. HRH Hassan bin Talal, Chairman of the United Nations Secretary General’s Advisory Board on Water and Sanitation launched the SFG report ''Water Cooperation for a Secure World'' in

Amman Amman ( , ; , ) is the capital and the largest city of Jordan, and the country's economic, political, and cultural center. With a population of four million as of 2021, Amman is Jordan's primate city and is the largest city in the Levant ...

on 28 November 2013. The report examines for the first time the relationship between water and peace around the world and is based on the study of 148 countries and 205 shared river basins. It concludes that any two nations engaged in active water cooperation do not go to war. Out of the 148 countries covered, 37 countries are not engaged in any significant degree of cooperation with their neighbouring countries. These 37 countries also face the risk of war. In the report, SFG developed a new Water Cooperation Quotient, which is a measure of active cooperation by riparian countries in the management of water resources using 10 parameters including legal, political, technical, environmental, economic and institutional aspects. It is calculated on a scale of 0 to 100, with 100 being the best performance. SFG also launched the report ''Rivers of Peace - Restructuring India-Bangladesh Relations'' in 2013. This report provides a new formula to resolve the impasse over the Teesta River Agreement between India and Bangladesh. A major breakthrough in developing consensus between multiple stakeholder representatives of Iraq and Turkey on a Plan of Action for promoting exchange and calibration of data and standards pertaining to Tigris river flows was achieved at a meeting organised by SFG in 2014. The outcome of the meeting which was held in Geneva has been referred to as the "Geneva Consensus On Tigris River". The first annual High-Level Forum on Blue Peace in the Middle East at Istanbul in September 2014. About 90 policymakers, Members of Parliament, serving and former Ministers, media leaders, academics and water experts from across the Middle East came together for this event. Participants proposed concrete initiatives at bilateral as well as regional levels to promote cooperation and sustainable management of water resources in the region. In March 2015, SFG launched two reports: ''The Hydro-Insecure: Crisis of Survival in the Middle East '' and ''Water and Violence: Crisis of Survival in the Middle East'', which highlight the challenges of water security and the larger effect it has on the region. For instance, the reports highlight that water insecurity is always accompanied by one or more issues such as poverty, war and conflict, low women's development and environmental degradation. According to the 'Hydro Insecure: Crisis of Survival in the Middle East' report, 40 million people are hydro-insecure, out of the total population of Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, which is roughly 140 million. SFG also analyses major global changes and shares perspectives at international conferences.

2015-2020: Global Water

The Global High-Level Panel on Water and Peace was launched in Geneva in 2015. It was co-convened by 15 countries and chaired by Danilo Turk, the former president of Slovenia and former Assistant Secretary-General of the United Nations. Strategic Foresight Group was selected to help the Panel in developing political and substantive recommendations. The Panel launched its report in September 2017 which advocates a number of specific recommendations on protecting water infrastructure in conflict zones, preferential and concessional finance for trans-boundary water projects, new mechanisms for hydro-diplomacy. After the report was launched, Strategic Foresight Group played a role in implementing the recommendations of the report, especially those relating to protection of water infrastructure in conflict zones and financing of joint water infrastructure. Strategic Foresight Group also produced the Blue Peace Bulletin that helped further disseminate the recommendations of the Global High-Level Panel on Water and Peace.

Since 2014: Critical Global Challenges

SFG is addressing major paradigm shifts due to major scientific, technological, environmental, economic, social, and political factors. In 2011, SFG published a document titled ''Big Questions of Our Time'' which addresses issues that will affect humanity in the next 50 years, approximately until 2060. It has since been involved in analysing critical global challenges and linkages between them. In 2016, Strategic Foresight Group briefed the historic

New York City New York, often called New York City (NYC), is the most populous city in the United States, located at the southern tip of New York State on one of the world's largest natural harbors. The city comprises five boroughs, each coextensive w ...

. It was for the first time that the UNSC had convened an open debate on "water, peace and security". SFG President Sundeep Waslekar was one of the four briefers along with UN Secretary-General

Ban Ki-moon Ban Ki-moon (born 13 June 1944) is a South Korean politician and diplomat who served as the eighth secretary-general of the United Nations between 2007 and 2016. Prior to his appointment as secretary-general, Ban was the South Korean minister ...

, Chairman of the Global High-Level Panel on Water and Peace

Danilo Türk Danilo Türk (; born 19 February 1952) is a Slovenian diplomat, professor of international law, human rights expert, and political figure who served as President of Slovenia from 2007 to 2012. He was the first Slovene ambassador to the United Nat ...

and ICRC Vice President Christine Beerli. In 2017, Strategic Foresight Group launched the second edition of the Water Cooperation Quotient, a rare document analyzing water cooperation in all of the world's shared river basins. The InterAction Council of Former Heads of State and Government provided the Foreword, authored by its two co-chairs, Mr

Bertie Ahern Bartholomew Patrick "Bertie" Ahern (born 12 September 1951) is an Irish former Fianna Fáil politician who served as Taoiseach from 1997 to 2008, and as Leader of Fianna Fáil from 1994 to 2008. A Teachta Dála (TD) from 1977 to 2011, he served ...

, former Prime Minister of Ireland and President

Olusegun Obasanjo Chief Olusegun Matthew Okikiola Ogunboye Aremu Obasanjo (; ; born 5 March 1937) is a Nigerian former army general, politician and statesman who served as Nigeria's head of state from 1976 to 1979 and later as its president from 1999 to 200 ...

, former President of Nigeria.Water Cooperation Quotient 2017
/ref>

References

External links

Strategic Foresight Group

* [https://web.archive.org/web/20120418230714/http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2004-02-10/india/28348576_1_explosion-fireball-cst ''Price Mumbai will pay if nuked'', Times of India, 10 February 2004]
FPRI Think Tank Directory
{{authority control Organizations involved in the Israeli–Palestinian peace process Israeli–Palestinian peace process Research institutes of international relations Think tanks established in 2002 Foreign policy and strategy think tanks in India 2002 establishments in Maharashtra