Sovereign credit risk is the risk of a government of a

sovereign state A sovereign state is a State (polity), state that has the highest authority over a territory. It is commonly understood that Sovereignty#Sovereignty and independence, a sovereign state is independent. When referring to a specific polity, the ter ...

becoming unwilling or unable to meet its

loan In finance, a loan is the tender of money by one party to another with an agreement to pay it back. The recipient, or borrower, incurs a debt and is usually required to pay interest for the use of the money. The document evidencing the deb ...

or bond obligations leading to a

sovereign default A sovereign default is the failure or refusal of the government of a sovereign state to pay back its debt in full when due. Cessation of due payments (or receivables) may either be accompanied by that government's formal declaration that it wil ...

Credit rating agencies A credit rating agency (CRA, also called a ratings service) is a company that assigns credit ratings, which rate a debtor's ability to pay back debt by making timely principal and interest payments and the likelihood of default. An agency may r ...

will take into account the capital, interest, extraneous and procedural defaults, and failures to abide by the terms of bonds or other debt instruments when setting a country's credit rating. A sovereign cannot be forced to pay its debts even when in a

sovereign debt crisis A sovereign default is the failure or refusal of the government of a sovereign state to pay back its debt in full when due. Cessation of due payments (or receivables) may either be accompanied by that government's formal declaration that it wil ...

but it may be able to use inflation and money printing to reduce its debts. The lender may also use its own government to pressure the sovereign through diplomatic and even military means. The United States government for example has the Foreign Claims Settlement Commission to help lenders recover debts from sovereigns. The risks for the lender are therefore different to loans to individuals or corporates. This risk can be mitigated by

creditor A creditor or lender is a party (e.g., person, organization, company, or government) that has a claim on the services of a second party. It is a person or institution to whom money is owed. The first party, in general, has provided some propert ...

s and stakeholders taking extra precaution when making

investment Investment is traditionally defined as the "commitment of resources into something expected to gain value over time". If an investment involves money, then it can be defined as a "commitment of money to receive more money later". From a broade ...

s or

financial transaction A financial transaction is an Contract, agreement, or communication, between a buyer and seller to exchange goods, Service (economics), services, or assets for payment. Any transaction involves a change in the status of the finances of two or mo ...

s with foreign countries.

Factors

Five key factors that affect the probability of sovereign debt leading to sovereign risk are: debt service ratio, import ratio, investment ratio, variance of export revenue, and domestic money supply growth. The probability of loss increases with increases in debt service ratio, import ratio, variance of export revenue and/or domestic money supply growth. Frenkel, Karmann, Raahish and Scholtens also argue that the likelihood of rescheduling decreases as investment ratio increases, due to resultant

economic productivity Productivity is the efficiency of production of goods or services expressed by some measure. Measurements of productivity are often expressed as a ratio of an aggregate output to a single input or an aggregate input used in a production proce ...

gains. However, Saunders argues that debt rescheduling can become more likely if the investment ratio rises as the foreign country could become less dependent on its external creditors and so be less concerned about receiving

credit Credit (from Latin verb ''credit'', meaning "one believes") is the trust which allows one party to provide money or resources to another party wherein the second party does not reimburse the first party immediately (thereby generating a debt) ...

from these countries/investors.

Sovereign debt crisises

An example of states being unwilling or unable to meet its debt obligations was

Cyprus Cyprus (), officially the Republic of Cyprus, is an island country in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Situated in West Asia, its cultural identity and geopolitical orientation are overwhelmingly Southeast European. Cyprus is the List of isl ...

in 2013. Many countries faced sovereign risk in the

Great Recession The Great Recession was a period of market decline in economies around the world that occurred from late 2007 to mid-2009.

of the late-2000s.

References

Government debt {{Econ-stub

Factors

Sovereign debt crisises

See also

References