A self-defeating prophecy (''self-destroying'' or ''self-denying'' in some sources) is the complementary opposite of a
self-fulfilling prophecy A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that comes true at least in part as a result of a person's belief or expectation that the prediction would come true. In the phenomena, people tend to act the way they have been expected to in order to mak ...
; a prediction that prevents what it predicts from happening. This is also known as the prophet's dilemma.
A self-defeating prophecy can be the result of
rebellion
Rebellion is an uprising that resists and is organized against one's government. A rebel is a person who engages in a rebellion. A rebel group is a consciously coordinated group that seeks to gain political control over an entire state or a ...
to the prediction. If the audience of a prediction has an interest in seeing it falsified, and its fulfillment depends on their actions or inaction, their actions upon hearing it will make the prediction less plausible. If a prediction is made with this outcome specifically in mind, it is commonly referred to as
reverse psychology
Reverse psychology is a technique involving the assertion of a belief or behavior that is opposite to the one desired, with the expectation that this approach will encourage the subject of the persuasion to do what is actually desired. This techn ...
or warning. Also, when working to make a premonition come true, one can inadvertently change the circumstances so much that the prophecy cannot come true.
It is important to distinguish a self-defeating prophecy from a self-fulfilling prophecy that predicts a negative outcome. If a prophecy of a negative outcome is made, and that negative outcome is achieved as a result of
positive feedback
Positive feedback (exacerbating feedback, self-reinforcing feedback) is a process that occurs in a feedback loop where the outcome of a process reinforces the inciting process to build momentum. As such, these forces can exacerbate the effects ...
, then it is a self-fulfilling prophecy. For example, if a group of people decide they will not be able to achieve a goal and stop working towards the goal as a result, their prophecy was self-fulfilling. Likewise, if a prediction of a negative outcome is made, but the outcome is positive because of
negative feedback
Negative feedback (or balancing feedback) occurs when some function (Mathematics), function of the output of a system, process, or mechanism is feedback, fed back in a manner that tends to reduce the fluctuations in the output, whether caused ...
resulting from the rebellion, then that is a self-defeating prophecy.
Examples
* If an economic crisis is predicted, then consumers, manufacturers and authorities will respond to avoid economic loss, breaking the chain of events that would lead to crisis.
* The biblical prophet
Jonah
Jonah the son of Amittai or Jonas ( , ) is a Jewish prophet from Gath-hepher in the Northern Kingdom of Israel around the 8th century BCE according to the Hebrew Bible. He is the central figure of the Book of Jonah, one of the minor proph ...
famously ran away and refused to deliver God's prophecy of
Nineveh
Nineveh ( ; , ''URUNI.NU.A, Ninua''; , ''Nīnəwē''; , ''Nīnawā''; , ''Nīnwē''), was an ancient Assyrian city of Upper Mesopotamia, located in the modern-day city of Mosul (itself built out of the Assyrian town of Mepsila) in northern ...
's destruction, lest the inhabitants repent and cause God to forgive them and not destroy the city. Indeed, when Jonah eventually did deliver the prophecy, the people did mend their ways and caused the prophesied event not to happen.
* The
Year 2000 problem
The term year 2000 problem, or simply Y2K, refers to potential computer errors related to the Time formatting and storage bugs, formatting and storage of calendar data for dates in and after the year 2000. Many Computer program, programs repr ...
has been cited as a self-defeating prophecy, in that fear of massive technology failures caused by computers' internal clocks "rolling over" encouraged the very changes needed to avoid those failures.
* Pre-announcing products in a way that discourages current sales (the
Osborne effect) is also an example of a self-defeating prophecy.
* Predictions of environmental issues are sometimes corrected via legislation or behavior change and thus never happen.
* Epidemics with grim projections also encourage changes that can prevent those projections from coming true and in turn lead to people questioning the necessity of those changes because the projections did not come true.
See also
*
Catch-22 (logic), a logical trap in which the participant is forced into the same outcome regardless of choice
*
Preparedness paradox, a perception that successful planning means the planned-for danger was smaller than it was
*
Self-refuting idea
A self-refuting idea or self-defeating idea is an idea or statement whose falsehood is a logical consequence of the act or situation of holding them to be true. Many ideas are called self-refuting by their detractors, and such accusations are ther ...
, a logical statement that negates itself
*
Grandfather Paradox, similar paradox for time travel
References
External links
*
{{unintended consequences
Attitude attribution
Causality
Cognitive biases
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