A scientific wager is a
wager whose outcome is settled by experiment or observation, following the
scientific method
The scientific method is an Empirical evidence, empirical method for acquiring knowledge that has been referred to while doing science since at least the 17th century. Historically, it was developed through the centuries from the ancient and ...
. It typically comprises a commitment to pay out when a currently-unknown or uncertain statement is resolved, and either proven or disproved. Some wagers have specific date restrictions for collection, but many are open. Wagers occasionally exert a powerful galvanizing effect on society and the scientific community.
Notable scientists who have made scientific wagers include
Stephen Hawking
Stephen William Hawking (8January 194214March 2018) was an English theoretical physics, theoretical physicist, cosmologist, and author who was director of research at the Centre for Theoretical Cosmology at the University of Cambridge. Between ...
and
Richard Feynman
Richard Phillips Feynman (; May 11, 1918 – February 15, 1988) was an American theoretical physicist. He is best known for his work in the path integral formulation of quantum mechanics, the theory of quantum electrodynamics, the physics of t ...
. The
Stanford Linear Accelerator has an open book containing about 35 wagers in
particle physics
Particle physics or high-energy physics is the study of Elementary particle, fundamental particles and fundamental interaction, forces that constitute matter and radiation. The field also studies combinations of elementary particles up to the s ...
dating back to 1980; many are still unresolved.
Notable scientific wagers
There are many examples of scientific wagers from the past two centuries, many related to large-scale questions in science at the time.
In 1870,
Alfred Russel Wallace
Alfred Russel Wallace (8 January 1823 – 7 November 1913) was an English naturalist, explorer, geographer, anthropologist, biologist and illustrator. He independently conceived the theory of evolution through natural selection; his 1858 pap ...
bet a
flat-Earth theorist named
John Hampden
John Hampden (24 June 1643) was an English politician from Oxfordshire, who was killed fighting for Roundhead, Parliament in the First English Civil War. An ally of Parliamentarian leader John Pym, and a cousin of Oliver Cromwell, he was one of ...
that he could prove the flat Earth hypothesis incorrect. The sum staked was . A test involving a stretch of the
Old Bedford River
The Old Bedford River is an artificial, partial diversion of the waters of the River Great Ouse in the Fens of Cambridgeshire, England. It was named after the Francis Russell, 4th Earl of Bedford, fourth Earl of Bedford who contracted with the ...
, in
Norfolk
Norfolk ( ) is a Ceremonial counties of England, ceremonial county in England, located in East Anglia and officially part of the East of England region. It borders Lincolnshire and The Wash to the north-west, the North Sea to the north and eas ...
, was agreed on: Wallace measured the curvature of the canal's surface using two markers separated by about and suspended at equal heights above the water's surface. Using a
telescope
A telescope is a device used to observe distant objects by their emission, Absorption (electromagnetic radiation), absorption, or Reflection (physics), reflection of electromagnetic radiation. Originally, it was an optical instrument using len ...
mounted 5 km from one of the markers, Wallace established that the nearer one appeared to be the higher of the two. An independent referee agreed that this showed the Earth's surface to curve away from the telescope, and so Wallace won his money. However, Hampden never accepted the result and made increasingly unpleasant threats to Wallace. This test is now known as the
Bedford Level experiment.
In 1975,
cosmologist Stephen Hawking
Stephen William Hawking (8January 194214March 2018) was an English theoretical physics, theoretical physicist, cosmologist, and author who was director of research at the Centre for Theoretical Cosmology at the University of Cambridge. Between ...
bet fellow cosmologist
Kip Thorne a subscription to
''Penthouse'' for Thorne against four years of ''
Private Eye
''Private Eye'' is a British fortnightly satirical and current affairs (news format), current affairs news magazine, founded in 1961. It is published in London and has been edited by Ian Hislop since 1986. The publication is widely recognised ...
'' for him that
Cygnus X-1 would turn out to not be a
black hole
A black hole is a massive, compact astronomical object so dense that its gravity prevents anything from escaping, even light. Albert Einstein's theory of general relativity predicts that a sufficiently compact mass will form a black hole. Th ...
. In 1990, Hawking acknowledged that he had lost the bet. Hawking's explanation for his position was that if black holes did not actually exist much of his research would be incorrect, but at least he would have the consolation of winning the bet.
In 1975,
Michael Sipser
Michael Fredric Sipser (born September 17, 1954) is an American theoretical computer scientist who has made early contributions to computational complexity theory. He is a professor of applied mathematics and was the dean of science at the Massa ...
wagered an ounce of gold with
Leonard Adleman
Leonard Adleman (born December 31, 1945) is an American computer scientist. He is one of the creators of the RSA encryption algorithm, for which he received the 2002 Turing Award. He is also known for the creation of the field of DNA computin ...
that the
P versus NP problem
The P versus NP problem is a major unsolved problem in theoretical computer science. Informally, it asks whether every problem whose solution can be quickly verified can also be quickly solved.
Here, "quickly" means an algorithm exists that ...
would be solved with a proof that P≠NP by the end of the 20th century. Sipser sent Adleman an
American Gold Eagle
The American Gold Eagle is an official gold bullion coin of the United States. Authorized under the Gold Bullion Coin Act of 1985, it was first released by the United States Mint in 1986. Because the term "eagle" also is the official United St ...
coin in 2000 because the problem remained (and remains) unsolved.
In 1978, chess
International Master David Levy won from four
artificial intelligence
Artificial intelligence (AI) is the capability of computer, computational systems to perform tasks typically associated with human intelligence, such as learning, reasoning, problem-solving, perception, and decision-making. It is a field of re ...
experts by never losing a match to a
chess program in a ten-year span from 1968 to 1978.
In 1980,
biologist
A biologist is a scientist who conducts research in biology. Biologists are interested in studying life on Earth, whether it is an individual Cell (biology), cell, a multicellular organism, or a Community (ecology), community of Biological inter ...
Paul R. Ehrlich bet
economist
An economist is a professional and practitioner in the social sciences, social science discipline of economics.
The individual may also study, develop, and apply theories and concepts from economics and write about economic policy. Within this ...
Julian Lincoln Simon that the price of a portfolio of US$200 () of each of five mineral commodities (
copper
Copper is a chemical element; it has symbol Cu (from Latin ) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable, and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a pinkish-orang ...
,
chromium
Chromium is a chemical element; it has Symbol (chemistry), symbol Cr and atomic number 24. It is the first element in Group 6 element, group 6. It is a steely-grey, Luster (mineralogy), lustrous, hard, and brittle transition metal.
Chromium ...
,
nickel
Nickel is a chemical element; it has symbol Ni and atomic number 28. It is a silvery-white lustrous metal with a slight golden tinge. Nickel is a hard and ductile transition metal. Pure nickel is chemically reactive, but large pieces are slo ...
,
tin, and
tungsten
Tungsten (also called wolfram) is a chemical element; it has symbol W and atomic number 74. It is a metal found naturally on Earth almost exclusively in compounds with other elements. It was identified as a distinct element in 1781 and first ...
) would rise over the next 10 years. He lost, and paid the amount the total price had declined: . See:
Simon–Ehrlich wager
In 1997,
Stephen Hawking
Stephen William Hawking (8January 194214March 2018) was an English theoretical physics, theoretical physicist, cosmologist, and author who was director of research at the Centre for Theoretical Cosmology at the University of Cambridge. Between ...
and
Kip Thorne made a bet with
John Preskill on the ultimate resolution of the apparent contradiction between
Hawking radiation
Hawking radiation is black-body radiation released outside a black hole's event horizon due to quantum effects according to a model developed by Stephen Hawking in 1974.
The radiation was not predicted by previous models which assumed that onc ...
resulting in a loss of information, and a requirement of
quantum mechanics
Quantum mechanics is the fundamental physical Scientific theory, theory that describes the behavior of matter and of light; its unusual characteristics typically occur at and below the scale of atoms. Reprinted, Addison-Wesley, 1989, It is ...
that information cannot be destroyed. Hawking and Thorne bet that information must be lost in a black hole; Preskill bet that it must not. The formal wager was: "When an initial pure
quantum state
In quantum physics, a quantum state is a mathematical entity that embodies the knowledge of a quantum system. Quantum mechanics specifies the construction, evolution, and measurement of a quantum state. The result is a prediction for the system ...
undergoes
gravitational collapse
Gravitational collapse is the contraction of an astronomical object due to the influence of its own gravity, which tends to draw matter inward toward the center of gravity. Gravitational collapse is a fundamental mechanism for structure formati ...
to form a black hole, the final state at the end of black hole evaporation will always be a pure quantum state". The stake was an
encyclopaedia
An encyclopedia is a reference work or compendium providing summaries of knowledge, either general or special, in a particular field or discipline. Encyclopedias are divided into articles or entries that are arranged alphabetically by artic ...
of the winner's choice, from which "information can be recovered at will". Hawking conceded the bet in 2004, giving a baseball encyclopaedia to John Preskill. Thorne has not formally conceded. See:
Thorne-Hawking-Preskill bet
In 2000 roughly 40 physicists made a bet about the existence of
supersymmetry
Supersymmetry is a Theory, theoretical framework in physics that suggests the existence of a symmetry between Particle physics, particles with integer Spin (physics), spin (''bosons'') and particles with half-integer spin (''fermions''). It propo ...
, to be settled in 2011, but because the
Large Hadron Collider
The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) is the world's largest and highest-energy particle accelerator. It was built by the CERN, European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN) between 1998 and 2008, in collaboration with over 10,000 scientists, ...
was delayed the bet was extended to 2016. As of summer 2016 there had been no signs of superparticles, and the losers delivered "good
cognac
Cognac ( , also , ) is a variety of brandy named after the Communes of France, commune of Cognac, France. It is produced in the surrounding wine-growing region in the Departments of France, departments of Charente and Charente-Maritime.
Cogn ...
at a price not less than $100" each to the winners ().
In 2000,
Steven Austad and
Jay Olshansky bet US$150 () each on whether anyone born before 2001 will reach the age of 150. They later increased the bet to $300 () each. The pot is invested in a fund, and could be worth several hundred million dollars by 2150.
From 2000 to 2003, scientists placed bets on the number of
gene
In biology, the word gene has two meanings. The Mendelian gene is a basic unit of heredity. The molecular gene is a sequence of nucleotides in DNA that is transcribed to produce a functional RNA. There are two types of molecular genes: protei ...
s in the
human genome
The human genome is a complete set of nucleic acid sequences for humans, encoded as the DNA within each of the 23 distinct chromosomes in the cell nucleus. A small DNA molecule is found within individual Mitochondrial DNA, mitochondria. These ar ...
in a
sweepstakes known as
GeneSweep organised by
Ewan Birney.
In 2005, British
climate scientist
Climatology (from Greek , ''klima'', "slope"; and , ''-logia'') or climate science is the scientific study of Earth's climate, typically defined as weather conditions averaged over a period of at least 30 years. Climate concerns the atmospheric ...
James Annan laid bets with
global warming denialists concerning whether future temperatures will increase. Two Russian solar physicists, Galina Mashnich and Vladimir Bashkirtsev, accepted the wager of US$10,000 () that the average global temperature during 2012–2017 would be lower than during 1998–2003. The bet ended in 2017 with a win to Annan. Mashnich and Bashkirtsev did not honour the bet. Previously, Annan had directly challenged
Richard Lindzen. Lindzen had been willing to bet that global temperatures would drop over the next 20 years. Annan says that Lindzen wanted odds of 50–1 against falling temperatures. Lindzen, however, says that he asked for 2–1 odds against a temperature rise of over 0.4 °C. Annan and others state they have challenged other denialists to bets over global warming that were not accepted, including Annan's attempt in 2005 to accept a bet that had been offered by
Patrick Michaels in 1998 that temperatures would be cooler after ten years. Annan made a bet in 2011 with astrophysicist David Whitehouse that the
Met Office
The Met Office, until November 2000 officially the Meteorological Office, is the United Kingdom's national weather and climate service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology and ...
temperature would set a new annual record by the end of the year. Annan was declared to have lost on January 13, 2012.
In 2005, ''
The Guardian
''The Guardian'' is a British daily newspaper. It was founded in Manchester in 1821 as ''The Manchester Guardian'' and changed its name in 1959, followed by a move to London. Along with its sister paper, ''The Guardian Weekly'', ''The Guardi ...
'' columnist
George Monbiot
George Joshua Richard Monbiot ( ; born 27 January 1963) is an English journalist, author, and Environmental movement, environmental and political activist. He writes a regular column for ''The Guardian'' and has written several books.
Monbiot ...
challenged
Myron Ebell of the
Competitive Enterprise Institute
The Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) is a non-profit libertarian think tank founded by the political writer Fred L. Smith Jr. on March 9, 1984, in Washington, D.C., to advance principles of limited government, free enterprise, and individ ...
to a
£5,000 bet () of global warming versus global cooling.
On July 8, 2009, at a
FQXi conference in
the Azores,
Antony Garrett Lisi made a public bet with
Frank Wilczek
Frank Anthony Wilczek ( or ; born May 15, 1951) is an American theoretical physicist, mathematician and Nobel laureate. He is the Herman Feshbach Professor of Physics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Founding Director ...
that
superparticles would not be detected by July 8, 2015.
On August 16, 2016, after agreeing to a one-year delay to allow for more data collection from the
Large Hadron Collider
The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) is the world's largest and highest-energy particle accelerator. It was built by the CERN, European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN) between 1998 and 2008, in collaboration with over 10,000 scientists, ...
, Frank Wilczek conceded the superparticle bet to Lisi.
In 2012,
Stephen Hawking
Stephen William Hawking (8January 194214March 2018) was an English theoretical physics, theoretical physicist, cosmologist, and author who was director of research at the Centre for Theoretical Cosmology at the University of Cambridge. Between ...
lost to
Gordon Kane of the University of Michigan because of the
Higgs boson
The Higgs boson, sometimes called the Higgs particle, is an elementary particle in the Standard Model of particle physics produced by the excited state, quantum excitation of the Higgs field,
one of the field (physics), fields in particl ...
discovery.
Zvi Bern has won many bets connected to
quantum gravity
Quantum gravity (QG) is a field of theoretical physics that seeks to describe gravity according to the principles of quantum mechanics. It deals with environments in which neither gravitational nor quantum effects can be ignored, such as in the v ...
. In 2016
David Gross
David Jonathan Gross (; born February 19, 1941) is an American theoretical physicist and string theorist. Along with Frank Wilczek and David Politzer, he was awarded the 2004 Nobel Prize in Physics for their discovery of asymptotic freedom. ...
lost a wager about supersymmetry, but he continues to believe in the theory.
In 2017,
Daniel J. Bernstein made a bet for US$2,048 () with
Francisco Rodríguez-Henríquez that
quantum computers will publicly break the
RSA-2048 factoring challenge no later than 2033.
In 2023, John Preuß Mattsson bet $2,050 that the challenge will withstand quantum computing until at least 2050.
Daniel J. Bernstein,
John Sahhar,
Daniel Apon, and
Michele Mosca accepted the bet.
In 2021
Alexander Kusenko lost a $10,000 wager to
Derek Muller
Derek Alexander Muller (born 9 November 1982) is a science communicator and media personality, best known for his YouTube channel Veritasium, which has over 17.8 million subscribers and 3.3 billion views as of April 2025. He currently lives in ...
over the possibility of
sailing directly downwind faster than the wind as documented on Muller's channel, Veritasium.
See also
*
* The efforts of photographer
Eadweard Muybridge
Eadweard Muybridge ( ; 9 April 1830 – 8 May 1904, born Edward James Muggeridge) was an English photographer known for his pioneering work in photographic studies of motion, and early work in motion-picture Movie projector, projection.
He ...
to capture the motion of a galloping horse were not part of a wager, contrary to popular opinion.
*
Pascal's wager is not a wager in the sense used in this article.
References
{{reflist
Sociology of science
Wagers