SciCast is a collaborative platform for science and technology forecasting created by
George Mason University
George Mason University (GMU) is a Public university, public research university in Fairfax County, Virginia, United States. Located in Northern Virginia near Washington, D.C., the university is named in honor of George Mason, a Founding Father ...
with the help of a grant from the
Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity
The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) is an organization, within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), that is responsible for leading research to overcome difficult challenges facing the United Stat ...
(IARPA) as part of its ForeST (Forecasting in Science and Technology) program.
SciCast is currently (January 2016) on hiatus, after losing its main IARPA funding.
It was expected to re-open in the fall of 2015 with the support of a major Science & Technology sponsor, but this had not occurred by January 2016.
History
SciCast was an outgrowth of an earlier project called DAGGRE (Decomposition-Based Elicitation and Aggregation), also an IARPA project that implemented GMU economist
Robin Hanson's idea of combinatorial prediction tech markets, and was a participant in the IARPA
Aggregative Contingent Estimation
Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) was a program of the Office of Incisive Analysis (OIA) at the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA). The program ran from June 2010 until June 2015.
History
The broad program announcemen ...
tournament.
The launch of SciCast itself was announced by
Robin Hanson on January 3, 2014,
[ and the official announcements were made on January 10, 2014.][ The launch received some news coverage in March 2014.][
]
Reception
SciCast has been covered in ''The Chicago Tribune
The ''Chicago Tribune'' is an American daily newspaper based in Chicago, Illinois, United States. Founded in 1847, it was formerly self-styled as the "World's Greatest Newspaper", a slogan from which its once integrated WGN (AM), WGN radio and ...
'' repeatedly.Malaysia Airlines Flight 370
Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 (MH370/MAS370) was an international passenger flight operated by Malaysia Airlines that disappeared from radar on 8 March 2014, while flying from Kuala Lumpur International Airport in Malaysia to its planned de ...
airliner attracted the attention of some analysts.
See also
* Aggregative Contingent Estimation
Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) was a program of the Office of Incisive Analysis (OIA) at the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA). The program ran from June 2010 until June 2015.
History
The broad program announcemen ...
* Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity
The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) is an organization, within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), that is responsible for leading research to overcome difficult challenges facing the United Stat ...
* The Good Judgment Project
The Good Judgment Project (GJP) is an organization dedicated to "harnessing the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events". It was co-created by Philip E. Tetlock (author of ''Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction'' and '' Expert ...
References
External links
*
{{George Mason University
George Mason University
Science software
Prediction