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SciCast is a collaborative platform for science and technology forecasting created by
George Mason University George Mason University (George Mason, Mason, or GMU) is a public research university in Fairfax County, Virginia with an independent City of Fairfax, Virginia postal address in the Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Area. The university was orig ...
with the help of a grant from the
Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) is an organization within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence responsible for leading research to overcome difficult challenges relevant to the United States Intellige ...
(IARPA) as part of its ForeST (Forecasting in Science and Technology) program. SciCast is currently (January 2016) on hiatus, after losing its main IARPA funding. It was expected to re-open in the fall of 2015 with the support of a major Science & Technology sponsor, but this had not occurred by January 2016.


History

SciCast was an outgrowth of an earlier project called DAGGRE (Decomposition-Based Elicitation and Aggregation), also an IARPA project that implemented GMU economist
Robin Hanson Robin Dale Hanson (born August 28, 1959) is an associate professor of economics at George Mason University and a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University. He is known for his work on idea futures and markets, a ...
's idea of combinatorial prediction tech markets, and was a participant in the IARPA Aggregative Contingent Estimation tournament. The launch of SciCast itself was announced by
Robin Hanson Robin Dale Hanson (born August 28, 1959) is an associate professor of economics at George Mason University and a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University. He is known for his work on idea futures and markets, a ...
on January 3, 2014, and the official announcements were made on January 10, 2014. The launch received some news coverage in March 2014.


Reception

SciCast has been covered in ''The
Chicago Tribune The ''Chicago Tribune'' is a daily newspaper based in Chicago, Illinois, United States, owned by Tribune Publishing. Founded in 1847, and formerly self-styled as the "World's Greatest Newspaper" (a slogan for which WGN radio and television a ...
'' repeatedly. The launch of SciCast was picked up by many blogs and websites of data analysis and technology trends. SciCast's crowdsourced search for the missing
Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 (MH370/MAS370) was an international passenger flight operated by Malaysia Airlines that disappeared on 8 March 2014 while flying from Kuala Lumpur International Airport in Malaysia to its planned destination ...
airliner attracted the attention of some analysts.


See also

* Aggregative Contingent Estimation *
Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) is an organization within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence responsible for leading research to overcome difficult challenges relevant to the United States Intellige ...
* The Good Judgment Project


References


External links

* {{George Mason University George Mason University Science software Prediction