Revolutionary wave

A revolutionary wave (sometimes revolutionary decade) is a series of revolutions occurring in various locations within a particular timespan. In many cases, past revolutions and revolutionary waves have inspired current ones, or an initial revolution has inspired other concurrent "affiliate revolutions" with similar aims.
The causes of revolutionary waves have become the subjects of study by historians and political philosophers, including Robert Roswell Palmer, Crane Brinton, Hannah Arendt, Eric Hoffer, and Jacques Godechot.

Writers and activists, including Justin Raimondo and Michael Lind, have used the phrase "revolutionary wave" to describe discrete revolutions happening within a short time-span.
Michael Lind, ''Vietnam, the Necessary War: A Reinterpretation of America's Most Disastrous Military Conflict'', Simon and Schuster, 200
p 37
, – "The revolutionary wave effect produced by the fall of Saigon in 1975 was far more significant than the regional domino effect in Southeast Asia proper. ..Mark N. Katz has identified a 'Marxist-Leninist revolutionary wave' that peaked in the 1960s and 1970s, along with an 'Arab nationalist revolutionary wave' that began with the 978-1979Iranian Revolution. Samuel P. Huntington has identified a 'democratic wave' that began with the defeat of the Soviet bloc in the Cold War. ..The Marxist-Leninist revolutionary wave associated with the Vietnam War saw 'affiliate Marxist-Leninist revolutions' come to power outside of Indochina in the Congo (1964, 1968), Benin (1972), Ethiopia and Guinea-Bissau (1974), Madagascar, Cape Verde, Mozambique, and Angola (1975), Afghanistan (1978), and Grenada and Nicaragua (1979)."

Typology

Mark N. Katz identified six forms of revolution;
*rural revolution
*urban revolution
*Coup d'état, e.g. Egypt, 1952
*revolution from above, e.g. Mao's Great Leap Forward of 1958
*revolution from without, e.g. the allied invasions of Italy, 1944 and Germany, 1945.
*revolution by osmosis, e.g. the gradual Islamization of several countries.

These categories are not mutually exclusive; the Russian revolution of 1917 began with urban revolution to depose the Czar, followed by rural revolution, followed by the Bolshevik coup in November. Katz also cross-classified revolutions as follows;
*Central; countries, usually Great powers, which play a leading role in a Revolutionary wave; e.g. the USSR, Nazi Germany, Iran since 1979.
*Aspiring revolutions, which follow the Central revolution
*subordinate or puppet revolutions
*rival revolutions, e.g. communist Yugoslavia, and China after 1969
Central and subordinate revolutions may support each other militarily, as for example the USSR, Cuba, Angola, Ethiopia, Nicaragua and other Marxist regimes did in the 1970s and 1980s.

A further dimension to Katz's typology is that revolutions are either against (anti-monarchy, anti- dictatorial, anti-capitalist, anti-communist, anti- democratic) or for (pro-fascism, pro-liberalism, pro-communism, pro-nationalism etc.). In the latter cases, a transition period is often necessary to decide on the direction taken.

Periodisation

There is no consensus on a complete list of revolutionary waves. In particular, scholars disagree on how similar the ideologies of different events should be in order for them to be grouped as part of a single wave, and over what period a wave can be considered to be taking place – for example, Mark N. Katz discussed a "Marxist-Leninist wave" lasting from 1917 to 1991, and a "fascist wave" from 1922 to 1945, but limits an "anti-communist wave" to just the 1989 to 1991 period. Mark N. Katz, "Cycles, waves and diffusion", in: Jack A. Goldstone, ''The Encyclopedia of Political Revolutions'', pp. 126-127

Pre-19th century

* Republican waves in Rome ( 509 BCE), Athens ( 508 BCE), and Carthage ( 480 BCE).
*The Second Reformation (1566–1609), including the Revolt of the Netherlands and the Second and Third Wars of Religion in France.Colin A. Beck, "The World-Cultural Origins of Revolutionary Waves: Five Centuries of European Contention", ''Social Science History'', vol.35, no.2, pp.167-207
* Jihadist wars in Western Africa in the 16th century.
*The Thirty Years' War (1618–1648), including Calvinist uprisings and the Huguenot Wars in France.
*The Atlantic Revolutions occurring at the end of the 18th century, including the American Revolution (1776), the French Revolution (1789), the Haitian Revolution (1791), the Batavian Revolution (1795) and the Irish Rebellion of 1798.Laurence Cox and Alf Gunvald Nilson,
What Makes a Revolution?
, ''Ceasefire'', 30 September 2014

19th century

*The Latin American wars of independence, including the various Spanish American wars of independence of 1810–1826 were often seen as inspired at least in part by the American and French Revolutions in terms of their liberal Enlightenment ideology and aims, are counted as the second part of the Atlantic Wave.
*The Revolutions of 1820, also the Decembrist revolt of 1825 in Russia and the Greek War of Independence.
*The Revolutions of 1830, such as the July Revolution in France and the Belgian Revolution or November Uprising against the Russian rule in Poland.
*The Revolutions of 1848 throughout Europe, following the February Revolution in France.
*The Great Eastern Crisis, including the Herzegovina uprising, April Uprising, Razlovtsi insurrection and the Cretan Revolt.

20th century

*The Revolutions of 1905–11 in the aftermath of the Russo-Japanese War, including the Russian Revolution of 1905, the Argentine Revolution of 1905, the Persian Constitutional Revolution, the Young Turk Revolution, the Greek Goudi coup, the Monegasque Revolution, the 5 October 1910 revolution in Portugal, the Mexican Revolution, and the Xinhai Revolution in China involved nationalism, constitutionalism, modernization, and/or republicanism targeting autocracy and traditionalism.
*The Revolutions of 1917–1923 in the aftermath of World War I, including the Russian Revolution and the emergence of an international communist party alliance in the Soviet-led Comintern (the beginning of the Marxist revolutionary wave), the collapse of the German Empire, Austro-Hungarian empire and Ottoman empire and resultant founding of Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia and independent Poland and Austria; the first protest of the Indian independence movement organized by Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi, the Kemalist revolution in Turkey; the 1919 Egyptian revolution, the Arab revolt, the Easter rising and Irish Free State; as well as other nationalist, populist and socialist uprisings and protests worldwide.
*The Fascist Revolutionary wave, beginning in Italy in 1922, also including the 28 May 1926 coup d'état in Portugal, Japan from 1931, Germany from 1933, Greece from 1936, and the Spanish Civil War.Mark Katz, ''Revolutions and Revolutionary Waves'', St Martin's Press, 1997, p 22
*World War II Revolutions (19431949), including the Greek Civil War, French Resistance and Yugoslav Resistance.
*The Indochina Wars were communist revolutions in East Asia and Southeast Asia including the Indonesian National Revolution in 1945.
*The decolonisation of Africa were waves of revolution in Africa, cresting in the 1970s, including the communist revolutions and pro-Soviet military coups in Somalia, the Congo-Brazzaville, Benin and Ethiopia, and the fight of the communist parties allied under CONCP against the Portuguese Empire in the Portuguese Colonial War.
*The Arab nationalist movement: revolutions occurred in Egypt, 1952; Iraq, 1958, 1963 and 1968; Algeria, 1962; North Yemen, 1962; Syria, 1963; Sudan and Libya, 1969. The central regime in this case was Egypt, inspired especially by Gamal Abdel Nasser.
*Following Nikita Khrushchev's " Secret Speech" denouncing Stalin in February 1956, a wave of political upheavals swept through the Eastern Bloc. In Poland, a workers' uprising in Poznań led to major political changes later that year, as the longtime Stalinist old guard of the Polish United Workers' Party was forced out of power in favor of a new, more independent-minded Communist leadership. Pro-reform movements in Hungary, inspired in part by the Polish upheavals, soon erupted into the Hungarian Revolution of 1956, a major popular uprising against the Soviet-backed regime in Budapest that was brutally crushed. There was also a nascent pro-reform movement in Romania that was suppressed.
*The Black Power movement and the civil rights movement organized successful protests against government and private discrimination. Continuing unrest in African-American communities led to the multi-city riots during the " Long, hot summer of 1967" and the various 1968 riots following the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr. In Trinidad the Black Power Revolution was successful.
*The Protests of 1968 saw youth movements worldwide supporting the opposition to the U.S. involvement in the Vietnam War and other left wing causes, the worldwide counterculture of the 1960s and the New Left inspired protest and revolution in the communist world and capitalist world, including the Prague Spring, Mao's Cultural Revolution in China, and the May 1968 protests in France; the latter led to the Werner Report on European monetary union.
*The Central American crisis saw a socialist movement take power in the Nicaraguan Revolution and leftist popular uprisings in El Salvador and Guatemala.
* A decade of religious fundamentalist revolutions, mostly from 1977 to 1987, including the Shia Islam Iranian revolution of 1979, revisionist Zionism and neo-Zionism, the re-introduction of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and other Islamist movements like al-Jama'a al-Islamiyya during the Corrective Revolution, the 1977 Pakistani military coup ending the rule of the Pakistan People's Party and beginning the Islamization of Pakistan, the implemention of the September 1983 Laws in Sudan, and the 1977 first Likud government in Israel; the Christian right and Christian Zionism movements, mostly in the US, and the Hindutva Janata party, later the BJP, in India, founded 1977. In the 1980s, Al Qaeda, founded 1988; Hamas, founded 1987; Islamic Unity of Afghanistan Mujahideen, founded 1981 or 1985; Lashkar-e-Taiba was founded in Pakistan in 1987. The modern version of the Taliban began in 1994.
*The Revolutions of 1989 and the dissolution of the Soviet Union by the end of 1991, which ended the Marxist revolutionary wave, resulting in Russia and 14 countries declaring their independence from the Soviet Union: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia (country), Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. Communism soon was abandoned by other countries, including Afghanistan, Albania, Angola, Benin, Bulgaria, Cambodia, Congo-Brazzaville, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Ethiopia, Hungary, Mongolia, Mozambique, Poland, Romania, Somalia, South Yemen, and Yugoslavia. Apartheid South Africa, Yugoslavia, and Czechoslovakia also collapsed in the early 1990s.
*Pink Tide in Latin America starting in 1999 to late 2000s.

21st century

*The colour revolutions were various related movements that developed in several societies in the Post-Soviet states, former Soviet Union and the Balkans during the early 2000s.
*Between 2009 and 2014, there were revolutions or mass protests in the Arab Spring, Arab world, 2009 Icelandic financial crisis protests, Iceland, 2009 Malagasy political crisis, Madagascar, Anti-austerity movement in Ireland, Ireland, 2011–12 Iranian protests, Iran, 2010 Thai political protests, Thailand, Kyrgyz Revolution of 2010, Kyrgyzstan, Anti-austerity movement in Greece, Greece, Anti-austerity movement in Spain, Spain, 2011–13 Chilean student protests, Chile, the 2011–12 Maldives political crisis, Maldives, 2011 Oakland general strike, California, 2011 Chinese pro-democracy protests, China, 2011 Israeli social justice protests, Israel, 2011 Azerbaijani protests, Azerbaijan, 2011 Armenian protests, Armenia, Rojava conflict, Rojava, Cherán, Mexico, 2012 Quebec student protests, Canada, the 2010 United Kingdom student protests, UK, 2012–2015 unrest in Romania, Romania, Gezi Park protests, Turkey, Bonnets Rouges, France, Euromaidan, Ukraine, Venezuelan protests (2014–present), Venezuela, 2014 Burkinabé uprising, Burkina Faso and Umbrella Movement, Hong Kong. This period also saw the Occupy movement form in the West and the Grupos de Autodefensa Comunitaria, autodefensas in Mexico.
*The Arab Winter is a violent mass reaction following the Arab Spring characterized by resurgent authoritarianism, dictatorships, and Islamic extremism in the Middle East since 2014.
*Late 2019 and 2020 saw a significant wave of protest movements in 2019–20 Hong Kong protests, Hong Kong, 2019 Catalan protests, Catalonia, 2019–20 Lebanese protests, Lebanon, 2019 Chilean protests, Chile, 2019 Algerian protests, Algeria, 2019 Bolivian protests, Bolivia, 2018-2019 Haitian protests, Haiti, October 2019 Iraqi protests, Iraq, 2019 Ecuadorian protests, Ecuador, 2019 Montenegrin protests, Montenegro, 2018–2020 Serbian protests, Serbia, 2020-2021 Bulgarian protests, Bulgaria, 2019 Indonesian protests and riots, Indonesia, 2019 Albanian political crisis, Albania, 2019 Sudanese transition to democracy, Sudan, Crisis in Venezuela, Venezuela, the 2020–2021 United States racial unrest, United States, 2020 Kyrgyzstani protests, Kyrgyzstan, End SARS, Nigeria, 17A, Argentina, 2019–2020 Iranian protests, Iran, 2021 Cuban protests, Cuba, 2020–2021 Belarusian protests, Belarus, and the Yellow Vests Movement in various European countries. The causes are varied, spanning from corruption, austerity, electoral fraud, inequality and democratic backsliding. Central themes in many of these protests include economic and racial equality and widespread resentment against the economic and political elite, as well as the opposition to the COVID-19 lockdowns and related measures.
*Second Arab Spring

In Marxism

Marxism, Marxists see revolutionary waves as evidence that a world revolution is possible. For Rosa Luxemburg, "The most precious thing… in the sharp ebb and flow of the revolutionary waves is the proletariat's spiritual growth. The advance, by leaps and bounds, of the intellectual stature of the proletariat affords an inviolable guarantee of its further progress in the inevitable economic and political struggles ahead." The need for a world-wide socialist revolutionary wave for the survival of a socialist state has and continues to be a topic of controversy between Marxists, most notably between Trotskyism, Trotskyists and mainline Marxism–Leninism, Marxist–Leninist.

Potential revolutionary waves

Mark Katz theorises that Buddhism (in Sri Lanka, Thailand, Indochina, Burma, Tibet) and Confucianism (to replace Marxism in China and promote unity with Chinese in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia) might be the revolutionary waves of the future. In the past, these religions have been passively acquiescent to secular authority; but so was Islam, until recently.

Katz also suggests that nationalisms such as Pan-Turanianism (in Turkey, Central Asia, Xinjiang, parts of Russia), 'Pan-native Americanism' (in Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Paraguay) and Pan-Slavism (in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus) could also form revolutionary waves.Mark Katz, ''Revolutions and Revolutionary Waves'', St Martin's Press, 1997, p 139

See also

References

External links

*Deborah Jerome
Can Tunisia Spark a Revolutionary Wave?
Council on Foreign Relations analysis brief, January 18, 2011.
*Mark Kosman
Is revolution back on the agenda?

{{Marxist & Communist phraseology

Revolutionary waves,
Marxist terminology
Revolution terminology