Redskins Rule

The Redskins Rule is an observed longstanding coincidence between the National Football League (NFL) game results of the Washington Redskins, now known as the Washington Commanders, and the results of subsequent United States presidential elections. Briefly stated, when Washington won its last home game prior to the presidential election, the party of the prior popular vote winning party won the presidency; when Washington lost, the opposition party won. This coincidence was noted by many sports and political commentators, and held true for the first eighteen elections after the franchise first moved to Washington in 1937. The rule was first broken in 2012 and has since held true only once.

History

The Washington Commanders, formerly known as the Washington Redskins, are an American football team belonging to the National Football League (NFL). The rule, named the Redskins Rule, stated that if they won their last home game before the election, the incumbent party would win and that if they lost, the challenging party would win. The rule was first noticed prior to the 2000 election by Steve Hirdt, executive vice president of the Elias Sports Bureau. That year, the Redskins would begin what would become a four-game losing streak with retrospect to the rule when they lost to the Tennessee Titans. George W. Bush defeated Al Gore in the Electoral College, but lost the popular vote. This would cause problems for the original version of the rule after the 2004 election.

In the 2004 election, the Redskins lost their last home game before the presidential election, indicating that the incumbent should have lost. However, President George W. Bush (the incumbent) went on to defeat John Kerry. Hirdt modified the rule by stating when the winner of the popular vote fails to win the election, the impact of the team's game on the subsequent election gets flipped.

This changed the rule to be based on the year’s electoral vote outcome and the prior popular vote outcome, as if Washington wins and the party that won the prior popular vote wins the year’s electoral vote, the rule would be upheld, as it would if both lost. In the election in 2000, Gore won the popular vote while Bush won the electoral vote, and thereby the revised Redskins Rule was upheld for the 2004 election. In the 2008 election, the Redskins lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers, predicting a win for U.S. Senator from Illinois Barack Obama over U.S. Senator from Arizona John McCain, because Bush won the popular vote in the previous election.

Prior to the 2012 election, the Redskins lost against the Carolina Panthers on November 4. The Redskins Rule predicted an outright loss for incumbent Barack Obama against challenger Mitt Romney, or that Obama would win the popular vote but lose via the Electoral College. However, Obama won the election with 332 electoral votes to Romney's 206, held the advantage in the popular vote by more than 4.7 million votes, and the Redskins Rule did not hold in 2012.

In 2016, the Redskins played their last designated home game prior to the election on October 16, defeating the Philadelphia Eagles 27–20. This outcome predicted a victory for Hillary Clinton of the Democratic Party, which was in power. Clinton's loss to Republican challenger Donald Trump in the election meant that the Redskins Rule did not hold in 2016 despite Clinton winning the popular vote.

Before the 2020 season, the Redskins retired their longtime name following the summer of racial tensions, using the temporary name Washington Football Team for that season. They defeated the Dallas Cowboys 25–3 in their last home game prior to the election, which because of the rule being inverted due to the popular vote winner losing the previous election, predicted a victory for Joe Biden of the Democratic Party, which ended up correct.

The franchise adopted the name "Commanders" starting from the 2022 season. Their 2024 Hail Maryland victory against the Chicago Bears suggested a victory for Kamala Harris against Donald Trump in the 2024 election, although this was incorrect.

The rule typically does not count the team's time playing in Boston (1932–1936). The team competed as the Boston Braves in 1932 when they won 19–6 over the Staten Island Stapletons. This game does not conform to the rule, as Franklin D. Roosevelt defeated incumbent Herbert Hoover in that election. However, in 1936, the first election year the team competed under its longtime nickname, they defeated the Chicago Cardinals and the incumbent, Roosevelt, went on to win re-election.

Results

See also

* Curse of Tippecanoe
* Mierscheid law

References

{{Washington Commanders

Redskins Rule
United States presidential election predictions
Politics and sports