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The trend of RNI over time can indicate what stage of the
demography
Demography () is the statistical study of human populations: their size, composition (e.g., ethnic group, age), and how they change through the interplay of fertility (births), mortality (deaths), and migration.
Demographic analysis examine ...
and population dynamics
Population dynamics is the type of mathematics used to model and study the size and age composition of populations as dynamical systems. Population dynamics is a branch of mathematical biology, and uses mathematical techniques such as differenti ...
, the rate of natural increase (RNI), also known as natural population change, is defined as the birth rate
Birth rate, also known as natality, is the total number of live childbirth, human births per 1,000 population for a given period divided by the length of the period in years. The number of live births is normally taken from a universal registr ...
minus the death rate
Mortality rate, or death rate, is a measure of the number of deaths (in general, or due to a specific cause) in a particular population, scaled to the size of that population, per unit of time. Mortality rate is typically expressed in units of d ...
of a particular population, over a particular time period. It is typically expressed either as a number per 1,000 individuals in the population or as a percentage. RNI can be either positive or negative. It contrasts to total population change by ignoring net migration
Migration, migratory, or migrate may refer to: Human migration
* Human migration, physical movement by humans from one region to another
** International migration, when peoples cross state boundaries and stay in the host state for some minimum le ...
.
This RNI gives demographers an insight into how a region's population is evolving, and these analyses can inform government attempts to shape RNI.
Examples
Suppose a population of 5,000 individuals experiences 1,150 live births and 900 deaths over the course of one year. To show the RNI over that year as a percentage, the equation would be (1,150 – 900) ÷ 5,000 = 0.05 = +5% To show the RNI as a number per 1,000 individuals in the population, the equation would be (1,150 – 900) ÷ (5,000/1,000) = 250 ÷ 5 = +50 It can also be shown as natural births per 1,000 minus deaths per 1,000 (1,150 ÷ 5) – (900 ÷ 5) = 230 – 180 = +50 To convert the RNI per 1,000 population to a percentage, divide it by 1,000. The equation would be +50 ÷ 1,000 = 0.05 = +5%Uses
The rate of natural increase gives demographers an idea of how a region's population is shifting over time. RNI excludes in-migration and out-migration, giving an indication of population growth based only on births and deaths. Comparing natural population change with total population change shows which is dominate for a particular region. Looking at this difference across regions reveals those that are changing mainly due to births exceeding deaths and those changing mainly due to migration. The map shows just such an analysis for the US.
The trend of RNI over time can indicate what stage of the Demographic Transition Model
Demography () is the statistical study of human populations: their size, composition (e.g., ethnic group, age), and how they change through the interplay of fertility (births), mortality (deaths), and migration.
Demographic analysis examine ...
(DTM) a region or country is in.
National efforts to affect RNI
Government attempts to shape the RNI of a region or country are common around the world. Policies can either encourage or discourage an increase in birth rates. For example, during the COVID-19 crisis Singapore offered families a “pandemic baby bonus” to encourage a higher birth rate, therefore increasing RNI. The US has considered similar policies. Another example was China'sone-child policy
The one-child policy ( zh, c=一孩政策, p=yī hái zhèngcè) was a population planning initiative in China implemented between 1979 and 2015 to curb the country's population growth by restricting many families to a single child. The progr ...
, intended to decrease birth rates, therefore decreasing the RNI.
A country with a good infrastructure
Infrastructure is the set of facilities and systems that serve a country, city, or other area, and encompasses the services and facilities necessary for its economy, households and firms to function. Infrastructure is composed of public and pri ...
to support families, women's health, and maternal/child health would likely have lower death rates from infant or maternal mortality, which would increase RNI.
See also
- List of countries by rate of natural increase This article contains a list of countries by rate of natural increase. Methodology The rate of natural increase (RNI) is defined as the birth rate minus the death rate. It is typically expressed either as a number per 1,000 individuals in ...
- Birth rate Birth rate, also known as natality, is the total number of live childbirth, human births per 1,000 population for a given period divided by the length of the period in years. The number of live births is normally taken from a universal registr ...
- Mortality rate Mortality rate, or death rate, is a measure of the number of deaths (in general, or due to a specific cause) in a particular Statistical population, population, scaled to the size of that population, per unit of time. Mortality rate is typically ...
- Population growth Population growth is the increase in the number of people in a population or dispersed group. The World population, global population has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to 8.2 billion in 2025. Actual global human population growth amounts to aroun ...
References
Natural increase
In demography and population dynamics, the rate of natural increase (RNI), also known as natural population change, is defined as the birth rate minus the death rate of a particular population, over a particular time period. It is typically expre ...
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