Rachel Bitecofer (born February 23, 1977) is an American
political scientist
Political science is the scientific study of politics. It is a social science dealing with systems of governance and Power (social and political), power, and the analysis of political activities, political philosophy, political thought, polit ...
.
Early life and career
Bitecofer has a bachelor's degree in political science from the
University of Oregon
The University of Oregon (UO, U of O or Oregon) is a Public university, public research university in Eugene, Oregon, United States. Founded in 1876, the university is organized into nine colleges and schools and offers 420 undergraduate and gra ...
and a Ph.D. in political science and
international affairs
International relations (IR, and also referred to as international studies, international politics, or international affairs) is an academic discipline. In a broader sense, the study of IR, in addition to multilateral relations, concerns al ...
from the
University of Georgia
The University of Georgia (UGA or Georgia) is a Public university, public Land-grant university, land-grant research university with its main campus in Athens, Georgia, United States. Chartered in 1785, it is the oldest public university in th ...
. In 2015 she became a lecturer at
Christopher Newport University
Christopher Newport University (CNU) is a public university in Newport News, Virginia, United States. It was founded in 1960 as Christopher Newport College, an extension school of the College of William and Mary for mid-career working professiona ...
and assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy, where she conducted polling. In 2019 she applied to convert her position at the university to
tenure track
Tenure is a type of academic appointment that protects its holder from being fired or laid off except for cause, or under extraordinary circumstances such as financial exigency or program discontinuation. Academic tenure originated in the United ...
, but was denied. She then resigned her position and went to work for the
Niskanen Center
The Niskanen Center is an American think tank based in Washington, D.C. that advocates libertarian and market-oriented principles regarding environmentalism, immigration reform, civil liberties, and an effective welfare state. Named after Willi ...
, a centrist think tank in
Washington, D.C.
Washington, D.C., formally the District of Columbia and commonly known as Washington or D.C., is the capital city and federal district of the United States. The city is on the Potomac River, across from Virginia, and shares land borders with ...
Election punditry
Bitecofer's analysis has appeared on multiple media platforms including MSNBC and the ''New York Times''. She wrote the 2017 book, ''The Unprecedented 2016 Presidential Election,'' on the
election of Donald Trump Election of Donald Trump may refer to:
* 2016 United States presidential election
* 2024 United States presidential election
United States presidential election, Presidential elections were held in the United States on November 5, 2024. The ...
and runs a podcast hosted by Substack titled The Election Whisperer. She runs Strike Pac, a liberal
super PAC
Independent expenditure-only political action committees, better known as super PACs, are a type of political action committee (PAC) in the United States. Unlike traditional PACs, super PACs are legally allowed to fundraise unlimited amounts of m ...
.
Bitecofer accurately predicted the size of the "Blue Wave" in the 2018 United States midterm elections earlier than other forecasters, projecting that Democrats would gain 42 U.S. House seats in the election; they gained 41 seats. She also advanced the theory that Trump would lose reelection in 2020. Bitecofer argued that the 2020 electorate would see the return of voters who were unmotivated to vote in 2016.
Bitecofer has argued that differential turnout has an increasing role in elections. This view has been criticized by other political analysts like David Wasserman of ''
The Cook Political Report
Amy Elizabeth Walter (born October 19, 1969)"Profile: Amy Walter" Kyle Kondik of The Crystal Ball and Sam Wang offering more support.
She has also argued against Democrats nominating moderate " Blue Dog" candidates, pointing to liberal candidates
Stacey Abrams
Stacey Yvonne Abrams (; born December 9, 1973) is an American politician, lawyer, voting rights activist, and author who served in the Georgia House of Representatives from 2007 to 2017, serving as minority leader from 2011 to 2017. A member ...
and
Beto O'Rourke
Robert Francis "Beto" O'Rourke ( , ; ; born September 26, 1972) is an American politician who served as the United States House of Representatives, U.S. representative for from 2013 to 2019. A member of the Democratic Party (United States) ...
losing their elections in 2018 by fairly narrow margins.