The

Australian Labor Party The Australian Labor Party (ALP), also known as the Labor Party or simply Labor, is the major Centre-left politics, centre-left List of political parties in Australia, political party in Australia and one of two Major party, major parties in Po ...

won the 2025 federal election in a

landslide Landslides, also known as landslips, rockslips or rockslides, are several forms of mass wasting that may include a wide range of ground movements, such as rockfalls, mudflows, shallow or deep-seated slope failures and debris flows. Landslides ...

, winning 94 of 150 seats in the

House of Representatives House of Representatives is the name of legislative bodies in many countries and sub-national entities. In many countries, the House of Representatives is the lower house of a bicameral legislature, with the corresponding upper house often ...

. The Coalition won 43 seats. Classification of seats as marginal, fairly safe or safe is applied by the independent

Australian Electoral Commission The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) is the independent statutory agency of the Australian Government responsible for the management and oversight of Australian federal elections, plebiscites, referendums and some trade union A ...

using the following definition: "Where a winning party receives less than 56% of the vote, the seat is classified as 'marginal', 56–60% is classified as 'fairly safe' and more than 60% is considered 'safe'."Division Classifications
, ''Virtual Tally Room 2016'', Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 21 August 2016. Here, 'the vote' is defined as the vote after preferences, where the distribution of preferences has continued to the point where there are only 2 candidates left. In the Opposition Seats table, blue is used for both the Liberal party and members of the LNP who caucus with the Liberal party room, while green is used for both the National party and members of the LNP who caucus with the National party room. The

Mackerras pendulum The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House ...

was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a

Westminster Westminster is the main settlement of the City of Westminster in Central London, Central London, England. It extends from the River Thames to Oxford Street and has many famous landmarks, including the Palace of Westminster, Buckingham Palace, ...

-style

lower house A lower house is the lower chamber of a bicameral legislature, where the other chamber is the upper house. Although styled as "below" the upper house, in many legislatures worldwide, the lower house has come to wield more power or otherwise e ...

legislature such as the

Australian House of Representatives The House of Representatives is the lower house of the bicameralism, bicameral Parliament of Australia, the upper house being the Australian Senate, Senate. Its composition and powers are set out in Chapter I of the Constitution of Australia. ...

, which is composed of single-member electorates and uses a

preferential voting Preferential voting or preference voting (PV) may refer to different election systems or groups of election systems: * Any electoral system that allows a voter to indicate multiple preferences where preferences marked are weighted or used as cont ...

system such as a

Condorcet method A Condorcet method (; ) is an election method that elects the candidate who wins a majority of the vote in every head-to-head election against each of the other candidates, whenever there is such a candidate. A candidate with this property, the ...

instant-runoff voting Instant-runoff voting (IRV; ranked-choice voting (RCV), preferential voting, alternative vote) is a single-winner ranked voting election system where Sequential loser method, one or more eliminations are used to simulate Runoff (election), ...

. The pendulum works by lining up the seats held in Parliament for the

government A government is the system or group of people governing an organized community, generally a State (polity), state. In the case of its broad associative definition, government normally consists of legislature, executive (government), execu ...

, the opposition and the crossbenches according to the

percentage point A percentage point or percent point is the unit (measurement), unit for the difference (mathematics), arithmetic difference between two percentages. For example, moving up from 40 percent to 44 percent is an increase of 4 percentage points (altho ...

margin by which they are held on a two-candidate preferred (2CP) basis. That is also known as the swing that is required for the seat to change hands. With a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats changing hands can be predicted. __TOC__

Pendulum (2CP)

Analysis

Labor Labour or labor may refer to: * Childbirth, the delivery of a baby * Labour (human activity), or work ** Manual labour, physical work ** Wage labour, a socioeconomic relationship between a worker and an employer ** Organized labour and the labour ...

increased its majority significantly, securing 94 seats, up from 77 in

2022 The year began with another wave in the COVID-19 pandemic, with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant, Omicron spreading rapidly and becoming the dominant variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus worldwide. Tracking a decrease in cases and deaths, 2022 saw ...

. * The

Coalition A coalition is formed when two or more people or groups temporarily work together to achieve a common goal. The term is most frequently used to denote a formation of power in political, military, or economic spaces. Formation According to ''A G ...

dropped to 43 seats, continuing its downward trend. * The crossbench decreased slightly to 13 seats, down from 16, despite maintaining influence in key electorates.

Change in composition

Seats changing classification

* Includes gains.

Pendulum (2PP)

Separate to the two-candidate preferred (2CP) vote, the two-party preferred (2PP) vote is calculated in all seats. In "non-classic seats" (seats where a major party fails to reach the 2CP count of which there were 35 at this election), the 2PP figure differs to the 2CP figure (in classic seats, the 2CP and 2PP are the same). The 2PP figures in the non-classic seats allow for the calculation of the nation-wide 2PP vote. **Bradfield 2PP remains TBA (roughly 90% of the 2PP remains uncounted in the seat of Bradfield due to the closeness of its result and therefore the potential for a Liberal legal challenge).

References

{{Australian Federal Election Pendulums Pendulums for Australian federal elections 2025 Australian federal election