Olaf Helmer (June 4, 1910 – April 14, 2011) was a German-American
logic
Logic is the study of correct reasoning. It includes both formal and informal logic. Formal logic is the study of deductively valid inferences or logical truths. It examines how conclusions follow from premises based on the structure o ...
ian and futurologist. He was a researcher at the
RAND Corporation
The RAND Corporation, doing business as RAND, is an American nonprofit global policy think tank, research institute, and public sector consulting firm. RAND engages in research and development (R&D) in several fields and industries. Since the ...
from 1946 to 1968 and a co-founder of the
Institute for the Future
The Institute for the Future (IFTF) is a Palo Alto, California, US–based not-for-profit think tank. It was established, in 1968, as a spin-off from the RAND Corporation to help organizations plan for the long-term future, a subject known as ...
.
Born in
Berlin
Berlin ( ; ) is the Capital of Germany, capital and largest city of Germany, by both area and List of cities in Germany by population, population. With 3.7 million inhabitants, it has the List of cities in the European Union by population withi ...
, Helmer studied mathematics and logic at the
University of Berlin
The Humboldt University of Berlin (, abbreviated HU Berlin) is a public research university in the central borough of Mitte in Berlin, Germany.
The university was established by Frederick William III on the initiative of Wilhelm von Humbol ...
. He earned his doctorate there in 1934, under direction from philosopher
Hans Reichenbach
Hans Reichenbach (; ; September 26, 1891 – April 9, 1953) was a leading philosopher of science, educator, and proponent of logical empiricism. He was influential in the areas of science, education, and of logical empiricism. He founded the ''G ...
. That year he moved to London where he began a second doctorate study, on
Russell's paradox
In mathematical logic, Russell's paradox (also known as Russell's antinomy) is a set-theoretic paradox published by the British philosopher and mathematician, Bertrand Russell, in 1901. Russell's paradox shows that every set theory that contains ...
, under direction from
Susan Stebbing at the
University of London
The University of London (UoL; abbreviated as Lond or more rarely Londin in Post-nominal letters, post-nominals) is a collegiate university, federal Public university, public research university located in London, England, United Kingdom. The ...
.
Russell himself was one of Helmer's examiners.
Helmer moved to the United States in 1937, first working as a research assistant to
Rudolf Carnap
Rudolf Carnap (; ; 18 May 1891 – 14 September 1970) was a German-language philosopher who was active in Europe before 1935 and in the United States thereafter. He was a major member of the Vienna Circle and an advocate of logical positivism.
...
at the
University of Chicago
The University of Chicago (UChicago, Chicago, or UChi) is a Private university, private research university in Chicago, Illinois, United States. Its main campus is in the Hyde Park, Chicago, Hyde Park neighborhood on Chicago's South Side, Chic ...
, then as a teacher of mathematics.
Beginning 1944, Helmer was involved in work for the National Defense Research Council under John Williams (1909-1964). He would join Williams at the newly formed RAND Corporation in 1946.
Helmer's interests later turned towards forecasting and prediction. Collaborating with colleagues Norman Dalkey
[Norman Crolee Dalkey (November 22, 1915 - February 22, 2004)] (1915-2004) and
Nicholas Rescher
Nicholas Rescher (; ; 15 July 1928 – 5 January 2024) was a German-born American philosopher, polymath, and author, who was a professor of philosophy at the University of Pittsburgh from 1961. He was chairman of the Center for Philosophy of Sc ...
, his work led to the development of the
Delphi method The Delphi method or Delphi technique ( ; also known as Estimate-Talk-Estimate or ETE) is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method that relies on a panel of experts. Delphi ...
forecasting technique, also known as ETE (Estimate/Talk/Estimate).
In 1968, Helmer left RAND to co-found the
Institute for the Future
The Institute for the Future (IFTF) is a Palo Alto, California, US–based not-for-profit think tank. It was established, in 1968, as a spin-off from the RAND Corporation to help organizations plan for the long-term future, a subject known as ...
. In 1973 he was appointed Professor of Futuristics at the
School of Business Administration at the University of Southern California.
Literature
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References
{{DEFAULTSORT:Helmer, Olaf
German logicians
1910 births
1976 deaths
German male writers
RAND Corporation people
Immigrants to the United Kingdom
Emigrants from Nazi Germany
Immigrants to the United States
Humboldt University of Berlin alumni
20th-century German philosophers
Writers from Berlin