Nuclear escalation is the concept of a conflict escalating from

conventional warfare Conventional warfare is a form of warfare conducted by using conventional weapons and battlefield tactics between two or more sovereign state, states in open confrontation. The forces on each side are well-defined and fight by using weapons that ...

nuclear warfare Nuclear warfare, also known as atomic warfare, is a War, military conflict or prepared Policy, political strategy that deploys nuclear weaponry. Nuclear weapons are Weapon of mass destruction, weapons of mass destruction; in contrast to conven ...

Possible solutions

NATO policies preventing nuclear escalation

Background

The

North Atlantic Treaty Organization The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO ; , OTAN), also called the North Atlantic Alliance, is an intergovernmental transnational military alliance of 32 member states—30 European and 2 North American. Established in the aftermat ...

(NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance. Because three of its members (the

United States The United States of America (USA), also known as the United States (U.S.) or America, is a country primarily located in North America. It is a federal republic of 50 U.S. state, states and a federal capital district, Washington, D.C. The 48 ...

, the

United Kingdom The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Northwestern Europe, off the coast of European mainland, the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotlan ...

, and

France France, officially the French Republic, is a country located primarily in Western Europe. Overseas France, Its overseas regions and territories include French Guiana in South America, Saint Pierre and Miquelon in the Atlantic Ocean#North Atlan ...

) are

nuclear powers Nine sovereign states are generally understood to possess nuclear weapons, though only eight formally acknowledge possessing them. Five are considered to be nuclear-weapon states (NWS) under the terms of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation ...

, the alliance also serves as a nuclear power. NATO was formed during the

Cold War The Cold War was a period of global Geopolitics, geopolitical rivalry between the United States (US) and the Soviet Union (USSR) and their respective allies, the capitalist Western Bloc and communist Eastern Bloc, which lasted from 1947 unt ...

to provide security for its member states and assure mutual destruction with the

Soviet Union The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. (USSR), commonly known as the Soviet Union, was a List of former transcontinental countries#Since 1700, transcontinental country that spanned much of Eurasia from 1922 until Dissolution of the Soviet ...

(USSR). While three of NATO's member states are armed with nuclear weapons, the United States has the largest

nuclear arsenal Nine sovereign states are generally understood to possess nuclear weapons, though only eight formally acknowledge possessing them. United Nations Security Council#Permanent members, Five are considered to be nuclear-weapon states (NWS) unde ...

. Though NATO had policies regarding the escalation surrounding nuclear war, they did not take effect until the late 1950s. This was because, while the Soviet Union lacked

intercontinental ballistic missiles An intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) is a ballistic missile with a range (aeronautics), range greater than , primarily designed for nuclear weapons delivery (delivering one or more Thermonuclear weapon, thermonuclear warheads). Conven ...

and other long-range missiles to threaten the United States directly, the U.S. had stationed missile launchers within European NATO member states. This gave the U.S. an advantage should nuclear war commence. After this period, however, the Soviet Union could amass a large enough atomic stockpile to target the U.S. effectively. As the U.S. would be met with a similar or more significant atomic threat than they posed to the Soviet Union, they introduced the NATO response policy of '

massive retaliation Massive retaliation, also known as a massive response or massive deterrence, is a military doctrine and nuclear strategy in which a state commits itself to retaliate in much greater force in the event of an attack. It is associated with the U. ...

', which focused on the commitment to retaliate with a greater force than they had been attacked with. Because of the geographical position of European nations, they would quickly become involved in any war between

superpowers Superpower describes a sovereign state or supranational union that holds a dominant position characterized by the ability to exert influence and project power on a global scale. This is done through the combined means of economic, military, tec ...

, even if it did not originate in Europe. Any possible conflict between members of the

Warsaw Pact The Warsaw Pact (WP), formally the Treaty of Friendship, Co-operation and Mutual Assistance (TFCMA), was a Collective security#Collective defense, collective defense treaty signed in Warsaw, Polish People's Republic, Poland, between the Sovi ...

(led by the Soviet Union) and members of NATO (led by the United States) would likely escalate from conventional warfare to nuclear warfare. As most of Europe was involved in either NATO or the Warsaw Pact, they would be engulfed in any war that arose from a conflict between the two. This made European NATO member states a target if the Cold War escalated into a nuclear war.

Policies

NATO has several policies that are used to prevent nuclear escalation and nuclear war in NATO territory. The first policy, ' horizontal escalation', involves attempting to relocate the war to an area outside the European continent. The second policy, 'temporal escalation', consists of prolonging conventional warfare until neither side can continue the

war effort War effort is a coordinated mobilization of society's resources—both industrial and civilian—towards the support of a military force, particular during a state of war. Depending on the militarization of the culture, the relative si ...

, causing a stalemate. However, as seen in wars similar to

World War II World War II or the Second World War (1 September 1939 – 2 September 1945) was a World war, global conflict between two coalitions: the Allies of World War II, Allies and the Axis powers. World War II by country, Nearly all of the wo ...

, wars can last several years and still involve nuclear weaponry. The third policy, 'surprise escalation', involves attempting to prevent the opposing nation from initiating a nuclear war. In 1967, NATO also adopted the '

flexible response Flexible response was a defense strategy implemented by John F. Kennedy in 1961 to address the Kennedy administration's skepticism of Dwight Eisenhower's New Look and its policy of massive retaliation. Flexible response calls for mutual deterre ...

' policy, which had been recently developed by the United States. This policy enabled NATO to respond to any form of USSR aggression without relying on help from the U.S. until all forms of action were taken: battlefield, conventional, theater, and nuclear weapons. NATO reasoned that the U.S. still guaranteed strategic help should the USSR invade Europe; additionally, the U.S. would be forced to enter the conflict due to many of its international interests being jeopardized. However, European NATO members quickly let known the policy's great cost, something previously avoided during the 1950s proposal for a large NATO ground force. Although NATO's standing forces were meager, the U.S. nuclear might was superior to the USSR's, creating the deterrence NATO sought at the time. To further increase deterrence, NATO adopted dual capable missile systems, which allowed for either a conventional payload or a nuclear one. This was done both for the simplicity of ordnance and as a sign to the USSR that they were prepared to use nuclear weapons given to them. However, some Europeans contended that the intermediate steps of 'flexible response' were unnecessary. They believed that the 'massive retaliation' stance was the better course of action due to the immediacy of escalation. Following a USSR attack on Europe, 'massive retaliation' would guarantee U.S. involvement, redirecting from a small conflict to a war between the two superpowers. Doubts within the smaller NATO countries materialized when France renounced the past NATO ideology that saw the U.S. as a martyr willing to engulf itself in war for its European allies. This led to the creation of France's nuclear defense program, and France's withdraw from NATO's integrated military structure. NATO had a good foundation of nuclear weapons provided by the U.S. and a small amount by Britain. In 1974, France developed the

Pluton In geology, an igneous intrusion (or intrusive body or simply intrusion) is a body of intrusive igneous rock that forms by crystallization of magma slowly cooling below the surface of the Earth. Intrusions have a wide variety of forms and com ...

, a fully mobile tactical missile, and made it available to NATO. By 1981, over 30 Pluton units were deployed, with available reloads accompanying them throughout Europe. NATO also possessed nuclear-capable aircraft that could be used in multiple roles, nuclear and non-nuclear, within a conflict.

Other viewpoints

The solution to a nuclear escalation in international diplomacy lies in a concerted approach rooted in transparency, dialogue, and the establishment of universally acceptable norms. In this respect, bilateral and multilateral discussions present a promising avenue. These should aim not only at disarmament but also at regulating nuclear capabilities, fostering transparency in states' nuclear programs, and facilitating confidence-building measures. Regular dialogue can help reduce suspicion and foster a sense of security among nations, potentially diminishing the perceived need for nuclear arsenals as a deterrent strategy. Similarly, such dialogues should tackle issues such as the modernization of nuclear weapons and the regulation of emerging technologies with nuclear implications, as these factors can contribute significantly to nuclear escalation. At the same time, international instruments, such as the

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, commonly known as the Non-Proliferation Treaty or NPT, is an international treaty whose objective is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, to promote cooperatio ...

and the

Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) is a multilateral treaty to ban nuclear weapons test explosions and any other nuclear explosions, for both civilian and military purposes, in all environments. It was adopted by the United Nati ...

, can be further strengthened and more effectively enforced to address the issue of nuclear escalation. The involvement of international organizations like the

International Atomic Energy Agency The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is an intergovernmental organization that seeks to promote the peaceful use of nuclear technology, nuclear energy and to inhibit its use for any military purpose, including nuclear weapons. It was ...

can be instrumental in verifying compliance with these treaties and in providing a platform for dialogue among nations. Notably, nuclear and non-nuclear states must work together toward the common goal of nuclear disarmament. This includes acknowledging and addressing the concerns of non-nuclear states, thus creating an environment conducive to cooperation and shared security. Lastly, education and public awareness of nuclear weapons' catastrophic humanitarian and environmental consequences could also play a pivotal role in creating a global consensus against atomic escalation.

References

Works cited

* * * {{Cite book , title=The Nuclear War File , last1 = Chant , first1=Christopher , last2 = Hogg , first2 = Ian , publisher=Ebury Press , year = 1983 , isbn=0-85223-380-9 , location=London , pages=44 Politics of NATO Nuclear warfare Cold War