Nassim Nicholas Taleb (; alternatively ''Nessim ''or'' Nissim''; born 12 September 1960) is a

Lebanese-American Lebanese Americans () are Americans of Lebanese descent. This includes both those who are native to the United States of America, as well as immigrants from Lebanon and Latin America. Lebanese Americans comprise 0.79% of the American populatio ...

essayist,

mathematical statistician Mathematical statistics is the application of probability theory and other mathematical concepts to statistics, as opposed to techniques for collecting statistical data. Specific mathematical techniques that are commonly used in statistics inc ...

, former

option trader In finance, an option is a contract which conveys to its owner, the ''holder'', the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a specific quantity of an underlying asset or financial instrument, instrument at a specified strike price on or be ...

, risk analyst, and

aphorist An aphorism (from Greek ἀφορισμός: ''aphorismos'', denoting 'delimitation', 'distinction', and 'definition') is a concise, terse, laconic, or memorable expression of a general truth or principle. Aphorisms are often handed down by trad ...

. His work concerns problems of

randomness In common usage, randomness is the apparent or actual lack of definite pattern or predictability in information. A random sequence of events, symbols or steps often has no order and does not follow an intelligible pattern or combination. ...

probability Probability is a branch of mathematics and statistics concerning events and numerical descriptions of how likely they are to occur. The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1; the larger the probability, the more likely an e ...

complexity Complexity characterizes the behavior of a system or model whose components interact in multiple ways and follow local rules, leading to non-linearity, randomness, collective dynamics, hierarchy, and emergence. The term is generally used to c ...

, and

uncertainty Uncertainty or incertitude refers to situations involving imperfect or unknown information. It applies to predictions of future events, to physical measurements that are already made, or to the unknown, and is particularly relevant for decision ...

. Taleb is the author of the ''Incerto'', a five-volume work on the nature of uncertainty published between 2001 and 2018 (notably, '' The Black Swan'' and '' Antifragile''). He has taught at several universities, serving as a Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at the

New York University Tandon School of Engineering The New York University Tandon School of Engineering (commonly referred to as Tandon) is the engineering and applied sciences school of New York University. Tandon is the second oldest private engineering and technology school in the United St ...

since September 2008. He has also been a practitioner of

mathematical finance Mathematical finance, also known as quantitative finance and financial mathematics, is a field of applied mathematics, concerned with mathematical modeling in the financial field. In general, there exist two separate branches of finance that req ...

and is currently an adviser at Universa Investments. ''

The Sunday Times ''The Sunday Times'' is a British Sunday newspaper whose circulation makes it the largest in Britain's quality press market category. It was founded in 1821 as ''The New Observer''. It is published by Times Newspapers Ltd, a subsidiary of N ...

'' described his 2007 book '' The Black Swan'' as one of the 12 most influential books since

World War II World War II or the Second World War (1 September 1939 – 2 September 1945) was a World war, global conflict between two coalitions: the Allies of World War II, Allies and the Axis powers. World War II by country, Nearly all of the wo ...

. Taleb criticized risk management methods used by the finance industry and warned about

financial crises A financial crisis is any of a broad variety of situations in which some financial assets suddenly lose a large part of their nominal value. In the 19th and early 20th centuries, many financial crises were associated with Bank run#Systemic banki ...

, subsequently profiting from the

Black Monday (1987) Black Monday (also known as Black Tuesday in some parts of the world due to time zone differences) was a global, severe and largely unexpected stock market crash on Monday, October 19, 1987. Worldwide losses were estimated at US$1.71 trillion. ...

and the

2008 financial crisis The 2008 financial crisis, also known as the global financial crisis (GFC), was a major worldwide financial crisis centered in the United States. The causes of the 2008 crisis included excessive speculation on housing values by both homeowners ...

. He advocates what he calls a "black swan robust" society, meaning a society that can withstand difficult-to-predict events. He proposes what he has termed "

antifragility Antifragility is a property of systems in which they increase in capability to thrive as a result of stressors, shocks, volatility, noise, mistakes, faults, attacks, or failures. The concept was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book, '' An ...

" in systems; that is, an ability to benefit and grow from a certain class of random events, errors, and volatility, as well as "convex tinkering" as a method of scientific discovery, by which he means that decentralized

experimentation An experiment is a procedure carried out to support or refute a hypothesis, or determine the efficacy or likelihood of something previously untried. Experiments provide insight into cause-and-effect by demonstrating what outcome occurs whe ...

outperforms directed research.

Early life and family background

Taleb was born in

Amioun Amioun (; ) is the capital of the predominantly Greek Orthodox Christianity in Lebanon, Greek Orthodox Koura District (i.e. χώρα, "country" in Greek) in North Lebanon. Etymology The town of Amioun derives its name from the Aramaic language, ...

Lebanon Lebanon, officially the Republic of Lebanon, is a country in the Levant region of West Asia. Situated at the crossroads of the Mediterranean Basin and the Arabian Peninsula, it is bordered by Syria to the north and east, Israel to the south ...

, to Minerva Ghosn and Nagib Taleb, an

oncologist Oncology is a branch of medicine that deals with the study, treatment, diagnosis, and prevention of cancer. A medical professional who practices oncology is an ''oncologist''. The name's etymological origin is the Greek word ὄγκος (''� ...

and a researcher in

anthropology Anthropology is the scientific study of humanity, concerned with human behavior, human biology, cultures, society, societies, and linguistics, in both the present and past, including archaic humans. Social anthropology studies patterns of behav ...

. His parents were

Greek Orthodox Christians Greek Orthodox Church (, , ) is a term that can refer to any one of three classes of Christian Churches, each associated in some way with Greek Christianity, Levantine Arabic-speaking Christians or more broadly the rite used in the Eastern Roma ...

, and had

French citizenship French nationality law is historically based on the principles of ''jus soli'' (Latin for "right of soil") and ''jus sanguinis'', (Latin for "right of blood") according to Ernest Renan's definition, in opposition to the German definition of nat ...

. His maternal grandfather and great-grandfather were both

deputy prime ministers of Lebanon Deputy or depute may refer to: * Steward (office) * Khalifa, an Arabic title that can signify "deputy" * Deputy (legislator), a legislator in many countries and regions, including: ** A member of a Chamber of Deputies, for example in Italy, Spain, ...

in the 1940s through the 1970s, and his four-times great grandfather was one of the

board of directors A board of directors is a governing body that supervises the activities of a business, a nonprofit organization, or a government agency. The powers, duties, and responsibilities of a board of directors are determined by government regulatio ...

to the administrator of

Mount Lebanon Mount Lebanon (, ; , ; ) is a mountain range in Lebanon. It is about long and averages above in elevation, with its peak at . The range provides a typical alpine climate year-round. Mount Lebanon is well-known for its snow-covered mountains, ...

. His paternal grandfather Nassim Taleb was a supreme court judge. Taleb attended a French school in Beirut, the Grand Lycée Franco-Libanais. His family saw its political prominence and wealth reduced by the

Lebanese Civil War The Lebanese Civil War ( ) was a multifaceted armed conflict that took place from 1975 to 1990. It resulted in an estimated 150,000 fatalities and led to the exodus of almost one million people from Lebanon. The religious diversity of the ...

, which began in 1975. He is a

Greek Orthodox Christian Greek Orthodox Church (, , ) is a term that can refer to any one of three classes of Christian Churches, each associated in some way with Greek Christianity, Levantine Arabic-speaking Christians or more broadly the rite used in the Eastern Roma ...

Education

Taleb received Bachelor and Master of Science degrees from the

University of Paris The University of Paris (), known Metonymy, metonymically as the Sorbonne (), was the leading university in Paris, France, from 1150 to 1970, except for 1793–1806 during the French Revolution. Emerging around 1150 as a corporation associated wit ...

. He holds an

MBA A Master of Business Administration (MBA) is a professional degree focused on business administration. The core courses in an MBA program cover various areas of business administration; elective courses may allow further study in a particular a ...

from the

Wharton School The Wharton School ( ) is the business school of the University of Pennsylvania, a private Ivy League research university in Philadelphia. Established in 1881 through a donation from Joseph Wharton, a co-founder of Bethlehem Steel, the Wharton ...

at the

University of Pennsylvania The University of Pennsylvania (Penn or UPenn) is a Private university, private Ivy League research university in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States. One of nine colonial colleges, it was chartered in 1755 through the efforts of f ...

(1983), and a PhD in

management science Management science (or managerial science) is a wide and interdisciplinary study of solving complex problems and making strategic decisions as it pertains to institutions, corporations, governments and other types of organizational entities. It is ...

from the University of Paris (Dauphine) (1998),BBK, 2015, "Our staff: Helyette Geman, PhD Students, Past Students," at

Birkbeck, University of London Birkbeck, University of London (formally Birkbeck College, University of London), is a Public university, public research university located in London, England, and a constituent college, member institution of the University of London. Establ ...

, Dept of Economics, Mathematics and Statistics, se

an

accessed 7 May 2015. under the direction of

Hélyette Geman Hélyette Geman is a French academic in mathematical finance. In 2022 she became the first woman in 41 years to be named ‘Financial Engineer of the Year’ by the International Association of Financial Engineers. Her career has spanned several ...

. His dissertation focused on the mathematics of derivatives pricing.

Career

Finance

Taleb has been a practitioner of

as a

hedge fund A hedge fund is a Pooling (resource management), pooled investment fund that holds Market liquidity, liquid assets and that makes use of complex trader (finance), trading and risk management techniques to aim to improve investment performance and ...

manager, and a derivatives trader. He has held the following positions:Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Curriculum Vita
"Official Academic Biography"
at ''fooledbyrandomness.com'' accessed 9 May 2015. managing director and proprietary trader at Credit Suisse

UBS UBS Group AG (stylized simply as UBS) is a multinational investment bank and financial services firm founded and based in Switzerland, with headquarters in both Zurich and Basel. It holds a strong foothold in all major financial centres as the ...

, currency trader at

First Boston : ''For the company after its acquisition by Credit Suisse, see Credit Suisse First Boston (known as CSFB and CS First Boston)'' The First Boston Corporation was a New York–based bulge bracket investment bank, founded in 1932 and acquired by ...

, chief currency derivatives trader for

Banque Indosuez Banque Indosuez was a French bank, the product of the 1975 merger of Banque de l'Indochine and Banque de Suez et de l'Union des mines. It was purchased by Crédit Agricole in 1996, and formed the core of what is now Crédit Agricole Corporate ...

, managing director and worldwide head of financial option

arbitrage Arbitrage (, ) is the practice of taking advantage of a difference in prices in two or more marketsstriking a combination of matching deals to capitalize on the difference, the profit being the difference between the market prices at which th ...

CIBC Wood Gundy CIBC Wood Gundy is the Canadian full-service retail brokerage division of CIBC World Markets Inc., a subsidiary of the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC). Through its network of over 1,000 investment advisors working in 80 locations acro ...

, derivatives arbitrage trader at

Bankers Trust Bankers Trust was a historic American banking organization. The bank merged with Alex. Brown & Sons in 1997 before being acquired by Deutsche Bank in 1999. Deutsche Bank sold the Trust and Custody division of Bankers Trust to State Street Corp ...

(now

Deutsche Bank Deutsche Bank AG (, ) is a Germany, German multinational Investment banking, investment bank and financial services company headquartered in Frankfurt, Germany, and dual-listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange. ...

), proprietary trader at

BNP Paribas BNP Paribas (; sometimes referred to as BNPP or BNP) is a French multinational universal bank and financial services holding company headquartered in Paris. It was founded in 2000 from the merger of two of France's foremost financial instituti ...

, independent option market maker on the

Chicago Mercantile Exchange The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) (often called "the Chicago Merc", or "the Merc") is an American derivatives marketplace based in Chicago and located at 20 S. Wacker Drive. The CME was founded in 1898 as the Chicago Butter and Egg Board ...

and hedge fund manager for

Empirica Capital Empirica Capital LLC was a hedge fund founded in 1999 by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in partnership with Mark Spitznagel, that used Taleb's black swan strategy. The firm closed in 2005. The investment strategy of the fund has been explained in a ''New ...

. Taleb reportedly became financially independent after the crash of 1987 from his hedged short Eurodollar position while working as a trader for First Boston. Next, Taleb pursued work toward his PhD in Paris, completing the degree program in 1998. He returned to New York City and founded Empirica Capital in 1999. During the market downturn in 2000, at the end of the dot com bubble and burst, Empirica's Empirica Kurtosis LLC fund was reported to have made a 56.86% return. Taleb's investing strategies continued to be highly successful during the

Nasdaq The Nasdaq Stock Market (; National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations) is an American stock exchange based in New York City. It is the most active stock trading venue in the U.S. by volume, and ranked second on the list ...

dive in 2000. Several consecutive years of low market volatility and less spectacular returns followed, and Empirica closed in 2004. In 2007, Taleb joined his former Empirica partner,

Mark Spitznagel Mark Spitznagel (; born March 5, 1971) is an American investor and hedge fund, hedge fund manager. He is the founder, owner, and chief investment officer of Universa Investments, a hedge fund management firm based in Miami, Florida.Universa Investments, an asset management company based on the "black swan" idea, owned and managed by Spitznagel in Miami, Florida. Taleb attributed the

to the mismatch between reality and statistical distributions used in finance. Taleb's investing approach produced significant returns once again, with some Universa funds returning 65% to 115% in October 2008. In a 2007 ''

Wall Street Journal ''The Wall Street Journal'' (''WSJ''), also referred to simply as the ''Journal,'' is an American newspaper based in New York City. The newspaper provides extensive coverage of news, especially business and finance. It operates on a subscriptio ...

'' article, Taleb claimed he retired from trading and would be a full-time author. He describes the nature of his involvement as "totally passive" from 2010 on. The ''Wall Street Journal'' journalist Scott Patterson wrote that "Taleb's involvement with Universa made him fabulously wealthy, the cash from the fund far outdistancing the substantial profits from his bestsellers". Taleb considers himself less a businessman than an

epistemologist Epistemology is the branch of philosophy that examines the nature, origin, and limits of knowledge. Also called "the theory of knowledge", it explores different types of knowledge, such as propositional knowledge about facts, practical knowledg ...

, and says that he used trading to attain independence and freedom from authority. He advocated for tail risk hedging, which is intended to mitigate investors' exposure to extreme market moves. Tail risk hedging safeguards investors by reaping rewards from rare events, thus Taleb's investment management career has included several jackpots followed by lengthy dry spells. Taleb attended the

World Economic Forum The World Economic Forum (WEF) is an international non-governmental organization, international advocacy non-governmental organization and think tank, based in Cologny, Canton of Geneva, Switzerland. It was founded on 24 January 1971 by German ...

annual meeting in

Davos Davos (, ; or ; ; Old ) is an Alpine resort town and municipality in the Prättigau/Davos Region in the canton of Graubünden, Switzerland. It has a permanent population of (). Davos is located on the river Landwasser, in the Rhaetian ...

in 2009; at that event he had harsh words for bankers, suggesting that bankers' recklessness will not be repeated "if you have punishment".

Academia

Taleb shifted his career emphasis to mathematical research in 2006. Since 2008, he has taught classes at

, as Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering. and was a Distinguished Research Scholar at the

Said Business School Said can refer to: * Speech, or the act of speaking * Saʽid, a male Arabic given name * Said (honorific), a honorific in Islamic culture * Said, Iran (disambiguation), multiple places in Iran * Port Said, a city in Egypt * Saïd Business Scho ...

BT Center,

University of Oxford The University of Oxford is a collegiate university, collegiate research university in Oxford, England. There is evidence of teaching as early as 1096, making it the oldest university in the English-speaking world and the List of oldest un ...

from 2009 to 2013. Taleb also held positions at NYU's

Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences The Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences (commonly known as Courant or CIMS) is the mathematics research school of New York University (NYU). Founded in 1935, it is named after Richard Courant, one of the founders of the Courant Institute ...

, the

University of Massachusetts Amherst The University of Massachusetts Amherst (UMass Amherst) is a public land-grant research university in Amherst, Massachusetts, United States. It is the flagship campus of the University of Massachusetts system and was founded in 1863 as the ...

, and the

London Business School London Business School (LBS) is a business school and a constituent college of the federal University of London. LBS was founded in 1964 and awards post-graduate degrees (Master's degree, Master's degrees in management and finance, Master of B ...

. Taleb is Co-Editor in Chief of the academic journal ''Risk and Decision Analysis'' since September 2014, jointly teaches regular courses with

Paul Wilmott Paul Wilmott (born 8 November 1959) is an English people, English researcher, consultant and lecturer in quantitative finance.Certificate in Quantitative Finance. He is also a faculty member of the

New England Complex Systems Institute The New England Complex Systems Institute (NECSI) is an independent American research institution and think tank dedicated to advancing analytics and its application to the challenges of society, and the interaction of complex systems with the en ...

Writing career

Taleb's first non-technical book, ''

Fooled by Randomness ''Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets'' is a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb that deals with the fallibility of human knowledge. It was first published in 2001. Updated editions were released a few years later ...

'', about the underestimation of the role of randomness in life, published in 2001, was selected by ''Fortune'' as one of the smartest 75 books known. His second non-technical book, '' The Black Swan'', about unpredictable events, was published in 2007, selling close to three million copies, as of February 2011. It spent 36 weeks on the

New York Times Bestseller list ''The New York Times'' Best Seller list is widely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States. John Bear, ''The #1 New York Times Best Seller: intriguing facts about the 484 books that have been #1 New York Times ...

, 17 as hardcover and 19 weeks as paperback, and was translated into 50 languages. The book has been credited with predicting the

. In a 2008 article in ''

The Times ''The Times'' is a British Newspaper#Daily, daily Newspaper#National, national newspaper based in London. It began in 1785 under the title ''The Daily Universal Register'', adopting its modern name on 1 January 1788. ''The Times'' and its si ...

'', journalist

Bryan Appleyard Bryan Appleyard (born 24 August 1951, Manchester) is a British journalist and author. Life and work Appleyard was educated at Bolton School and King's College, Cambridge. He worked at ''The Times'' and as a freelance journalist and has writte ...

described Taleb as "the hottest thinker in the world".

Daniel Kahneman Daniel Kahneman (; ; March 5, 1934 – March 27, 2024) was an Israeli-American psychologist best known for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making as well as behavioral economics, for which he was awarded the 2002 Nobel Memor ...

proposed the inclusion of Taleb's name among the world's top intellectuals, saying "Taleb has changed the way many people think about uncertainty, particularly in the financial markets. His book, ''The Black Swan'', is an original and audacious analysis of the ways in which humans try to make sense of unexpected events." A book of

aphorism An aphorism (from Greek ἀφορισμός: ''aphorismos'', denoting 'delimitation', 'distinction', and 'definition') is a concise, terse, laconic, or memorable expression of a general truth or principle. Aphorisms are often handed down by tra ...

s, '' The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms'', was released in December 2010. '' Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder'' was published in November 2012 and '' Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life'' was published in February 2018. Taleb's five volume philosophical essay on uncertainty, titled ''Incerto'', includes ''Fooled by Randomness'' (2001), ''The Black Swan'' (2007–2010), ''The Bed of Procrustes'' (2010), ''Antifragile'' (2012), and ''Skin in the Game'' (2018). It was originally published in November 2016 including only the first four books. The fifth book was added in August 2019. Taleb's non-technical writing style has been described as mixing a narrative, often semi-autobiographical style with short philosophical tales and historical and scientific commentary. The sales of Taleb's first two books garnered an advance of $4 million, for a follow-up book on anti-fragility.

Ideas and theories

Genealogy map of topics treated by Nassim Taleb

Taleb's book ''

The Bed of Procrustes ''The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms'' is a philosophy book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb written in the aphoristic style. It was first released on November 30, 2010 by Random House. An updated edition was released on Octo ...

'' summarizes the central problem: "we humans, facing limits of knowledge, and things we do not observe, the unseen and the unknown, resolve the tension by squeezing life and the world into crisp commoditized ideas". Taleb disagrees with Platonic (i.e., theoretical) approaches to reality to the extent that they lead people to have the wrong

map A map is a symbolic depiction of interrelationships, commonly spatial, between things within a space. A map may be annotated with text and graphics. Like any graphic, a map may be fixed to paper or other durable media, or may be displayed on ...

of reality, rather than no map at all. He opposes most economic and grand social science theorizing, which in his view, suffers acutely from the problem of overuse of Plato's

theory of forms The Theory of Forms or Theory of Ideas, also known as Platonic idealism or Platonic realism, is a philosophical theory credited to the Classical Greek philosopher Plato. A major concept in metaphysics, the theory suggests that the physical w ...

. He has also proposed that biological, economic, and other systems exhibit an ability to benefit and grow from volatility—including particular types of random errors and events—a characteristic of these systems that he terms ''

.'' Relatedly, he also believes that universities are better at public relations and claiming credit than generating knowledge. He argues that knowledge and technology are usually generated by what he calls "

stochastic Stochastic (; ) is the property of being well-described by a random probability distribution. ''Stochasticity'' and ''randomness'' are technically distinct concepts: the former refers to a modeling approach, while the latter describes phenomena; i ...

tinkering" rather than by top-down directed research, and has proposed option-like experimentation as a way to outperform directed research as a method of scientific discovery, an approach he terms ''convex tinkering.''Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2012, '' Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder,''

Random House Random House is an imprint and publishing group of Penguin Random House. Founded in 1927 by businessmen Bennett Cerf and Donald Klopfer as an imprint of Modern Library, it quickly overtook Modern Library as the parent imprint. Over the foll ...

() and

Penguin Books Penguin Books Limited is a Germany, German-owned English publishing, publishing house. It was co-founded in 1935 by Allen Lane with his brothers Richard and John, as a line of the publishers the Bodley Head, only becoming a separate company the ...

(), accessed 7 May 2015. Taleb has called for discontinuation of the

Nobel Prize in Economics The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, officially the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (), commonly referred to as the Nobel Prize in Economics(), is an award in the field of economic sciences adminis ...

, saying that the damage from economic theories can be devastating. He opposes top-down knowledge as an academic illusion. Together with Espen Gaarder Haug, Taleb asserts that option pricing is determined in a "heuristic way" by market participants, not by a model, and that models are "lecturing birds on how to fly". Teacher and author Pablo Triana has explored this topic with reference to Haug and Taleb. Triana has stated that Taleb might be correct in recommending that retail banks be treated as

utilities A public utility company (usually just utility) is an organization that maintains the infrastructure for a public service (often also providing a service using that infrastructure). Public utilities are subject to forms of public control and r ...

, i.e. forbidden to take potentially disastrous risks, whereas hedge funds and other less-regulated investment entities need not be subject to similar restrictions. In his writings, Taleb has identified and discussed the error of comparing real-world randomness with the "structured randomness" in

quantum physics Quantum mechanics is the fundamental physical Scientific theory, theory that describes the behavior of matter and of light; its unusual characteristics typically occur at and below the scale of atoms. Reprinted, Addison-Wesley, 1989, It is ...

(where probabilities are computable) or games of chance such as casino gambling, in which the probabilities are purposefully constructed by casino management. Taleb calls this the "

ludic fallacy The ludic fallacy, proposed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book '' The Black Swan'' (2007), is "the misuse of games to model real-life situations". Taleb explains the fallacy as "basing studies of chance on the narrow world of games and dice".Tal ...

". He argues that predictive models suffer from

Platonism Platonism is the philosophy of Plato and philosophical systems closely derived from it, though contemporary Platonists do not necessarily accept all doctrines of Plato. Platonism has had a profound effect on Western thought. At the most fundam ...

, gravitating towards mathematical purity and failing to take certain key ideas into account such as the impossibility of possessing all relevant information; that small unknown variations in the data can have a huge impact; and flawed theories/models based on empirical data and that fail to consider events that have not taken place but could take place. Discussing the ludic fallacy in ''The Black Swan'', he writes, "The dark side of the moon is harder to see; beaming light on it costs energy. In the same way, beaming light on the unseen is costly, in both computational and mental effort." In the second edition of ''The Black Swan'', he posited that the foundations of

quantitative economics ''Quantitative Economics'' is a peer-reviewed open access academic journal covering econometrics. It is sponsored by the Econometric Society, was established in 2010, and is published by Wiley-Blackwell. The editor-in-chief is Christopher Taber (Un ...

are faulty and highly self-referential. He states that statistics is fundamentally incomplete as a field, as it cannot predict the risk of rare events, a problem that is acute in proportion to the rarity of these events. With the mathematician

Raphael Douady Raphael Douady (born 15 November 1959) is a French mathematician and economist. He holds the Robert Frey Endowed Chair for Quantitative Finance at Stony Brook, New York. He is a fellow of the Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne (Economic Centre ...

, he called the problem ''statistical undecidability'' (Douady and Taleb, 2010). Taleb has described his main challenge as mapping his ideas of "robustification" and "

", that is, how to live and act in a world we do not understand and build robustness to black swan events. Taleb introduced the idea of the "fourth quadrant" in the exposure domain. One of its applications is in his definition of the most effective (that is, least fragile) risk management approach: what he calls the "

barbell strategy In finance, a barbell strategy is formed when a trader invests in long- and short-duration bonds, but does not invest in intermediate-duration bonds. This strategy is useful when interest rates are rising; as the short term maturities are rolled ...

" which is based on avoiding the middle in favor of linear combination of extremes, across all domains from politics to economics to one's personal life. These are deemed by Taleb to be more robust to estimation errors. For instance, he suggests that investing money in 'medium risk' investments is pointless, because risk is difficult, if not impossible to compute. His preferred strategy is to be both hyper-conservative and hyper-aggressive at the same time. For example, an investor might put 80 to 90% of their money in extremely safe instruments, such as treasury bills, with the remainder going into highly risky and diversified speculative bets. An alternative suggestion is to engage in highly speculative bets with a limited downside. Taleb asserts that by adopting these strategies, a portfolio can be "robust", i.e. gain a positive exposure to black swan events while limiting losses suffered by such random events. Together with

Donald Geman Donald Jay Geman (born September 20, 1943) is an American applied mathematician and a leading researcher in the field of machine learning and pattern recognition. He and his brother, Stuart Geman, are very well known for proposing the Gibbs samp ...

and

, he modeled a

maximum entropy The principle of maximum entropy states that the probability distribution which best represents the current state of knowledge about a system is the one with largest entropy, in the context of precisely stated prior data (such as a proposition ...

barbell "to constrain only what can be constrained (in a robust manner) and to maximize entropy elsewhere", based on an insight by E. T. Jaynes that economic life increases in entropy under regulatory and other constraints. Taleb also applies a similar barbell-style approach to health and exercise. Instead of doing steady and moderate exercise daily, he suggests that it is better to do a low-effort exercise such as walking slowly most of the time, while occasionally expending extreme effort. He claims that the human body evolved to live in a random environment, with various unexpected but intense efforts and much rest. Taleb appeared with

Ron Paul Ronald Ernest Paul (born August 20, 1935) is an American author, activist, and politician who served as the U.S. representative for Texas's 22nd congressional district from 1976 to 1977, and again from 1979 to 1985, as well as for Texas' ...

and

Ralph Nader Ralph Nader (; born February 27, 1934) is an American lawyer and political activist involved in consumer protection, environmentalism, and government reform causes. He is a Perennial candidate, perennial presidential candidate. His 1965 book '' ...

on their respective shows in support of ''Skin in the Game'', which was dedicated to both men. After the

2022 invasion of Ukraine On 24 February 2022, , starting the largest and deadliest war in Europe since World War II, in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, conflict between the two countries which began in 2014. The fighting has caused hundreds of thou ...

, however, Taleb publicly supported an aggressive response against Russia and denounced "naive libertarians, who think I'm like them because they like my books." Taleb wrote in Antifragile and in scientific papers that if the statistical structure of habits in modern society differ too greatly from the ancestral environment of humanity, the analysis of consumption should focus less on composition and more on frequency. In other words, studies that ignore the random nature of supply of nutrients are invalid. Taleb's scathing counter-intuitive takedown of widely-circulated alt-right talking points about race and IQ received both criticism and praise, when he published his "IQ is largely a pseudo-scientific swindle" on Medium. Posting a video on YouTube on the same topic, Taleb demonstrates that IQ as a test does not measure intelligence, which is a multi-factor phenomenon, but rather tests for the "absence of stupidity" or the "presence of unintelligence." Taleb argues in the paper that not only is IQ unscientific, and not validated by any evidence, it is additionally immoral and racist, calling national IQ rankings "a complete fraud." Taleb authored a paper with

Yaneer Bar-Yam Yaneer Bar-Yam (born 1959) is an American scientist and activist specializing in complex systems. An expert in the quantitative analysis of pandemics, he advised policy makers on the Western African Ebola virus epidemic and founded EndCoronaviru ...

and Joseph Norman called ''Systemic risk of pandemic via novel pathogens – Coronavirus: A note''. The paper, published on 26 January 2020, took the position that the

SARS-CoV-2 Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‑CoV‑2) is a strain of coronavirus that causes COVID-19, the respiratory illness responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic. The virus previously had the Novel coronavirus, provisional nam ...

was not being taken seriously enough by policy makers and medical professionals.

Criticism and reactions

Aaron Brown, a

quantitative analyst Quantitative analysis is the use of mathematical and statistical methods in finance and investment management. Those working in the field are quantitative analysts (quants). Quants tend to specialize in specific areas which may include derivative ...

and

adjunct professor An adjunct professor is a type of academic appointment in higher education who does not work at the establishment full-time. The terms of this appointment and the job security of the tenure vary in different parts of the world, but the term is gen ...

, said regarding ''The Black Swan'' that "the book reads as if Taleb has never heard of nonparametric methods,

data analysis Data analysis is the process of inspecting, Data cleansing, cleansing, Data transformation, transforming, and Data modeling, modeling data with the goal of discovering useful information, informing conclusions, and supporting decision-making. Da ...

, visualization tools or robust estimation." Nonetheless, he calls the book "essential reading" and urges statisticians to overlook the insults to get the "important philosophic and mathematical truths." Taleb replied in the second edition of ''The Black Swan'' that "One of the most common (but useless) comments I hear is that some solutions can come from 'robust statistics.' I wonder how using these techniques can create information where there is none". In 2007, Westfall and Hilbe complained that Taleb's criticism is "often unfounded and sometimes outrageous." Taleb, writes John Kay, "describes writers and professionals as knaves or fools, mostly fools ... Yet beneath his rage and mockery are serious issues. The risk management models in use today exclude the very events against which they claim to protect the businesses that employ them. These models import a veneer of technical sophistication ... " Berkeley statistician

David Freedman David Freedman (April 26, 1898 – December 8, 1936) was a Romanian-born American playwright and biographer who became known as the "King of the Gag-writers" in the early days of radio. Biography David Freedman was born in Botoșani, Romania ...

said that efforts by statisticians to refute Taleb's stance have been unconvincing. Taleb contends that statisticians can be pseudoscientists when it comes to risks of rare events and risks of blowups, and mask their incompetence with complicated equations. This stance has attracted criticism: the

American Statistical Association The American Statistical Association (ASA) is the main professional organization for statisticians and related professionals in the United States. It was founded in Boston, Massachusetts, on November 27, 1839, and is the second-oldest continuous ...

devoted the August 2007 issue of ''

The American Statistician ''The American Statistician'' is a quarterly peer-reviewed scientific journal covering statistics published by Taylor & Francis on behalf of the American Statistical Association. It was established in 1947. The editor-in-chief An editor-in-chief ...

'' to ''The Black Swan''. The magazine offered a mixture of praise and criticism for Taleb's main points, with a focus on Taleb's writing style and his representation of the statistical literature. Robert Lund, a mathematics professor at

Clemson University Clemson University () is a Public university, public Land-grant university, land-grant research university near Clemson, South Carolina, United States. - The blue-shaded pattern denotes university property. This shows Clemson University is ''out ...

, writes that in ''Black Swan'', Taleb is "reckless at times and subject to grandiose overstatements; the professional statistician will find the book ubiquitously naive." However, Lund acknowledges that "there are many points where I agree with Taleb," and writes that "the book is a must" for anyone "remotely interested in finance and/or philosophical probability." Taleb and Nobel laureate

Myron Scholes Myron Samuel Scholes ( ; born July 1, 1941) is a Canadian– American financial economist. Scholes is the Frank E. Buck Professor of Finance, Emeritus, at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences, and co-ori ...

have traded personal attacks, particularly after Taleb's paper with , in which Taleb alleged that nobody uses the Black–Scholes–Merton formula. Taleb accused Scholes of being responsible for the

, and suggested that "this guy should be in a retirement home doing

Sudoku Sudoku (; ; originally called Number Place) is a logic puzzle, logic-based, combinatorics, combinatorial number-placement puzzle. In classic Sudoku, the objective is to fill a 9 × 9 grid with digits so that each column, each row, and ...

. His funds have blown up twice. He shouldn't be allowed in Washington to lecture anyone on risk." Scholes retorted that Taleb simply "popularises ideas and is making money selling books". Scholes claimed that Taleb does not cite previous literature, and for this reason Taleb is not taken seriously in academia. Haug and Taleb (2011) listed hundreds of research documents showing the Black–Scholes formula was not derived by Scholes, and argued that the economics establishment ignored literature by practitioners and mathematicians such as

Ed Thorp Edward Oakley Thorp (born August 14, 1932) is an American mathematics professor, author, hedge fund manager, and blackjack researcher. He pioneered the modern applications of probability theory, including the harnessing of very small correlatio ...

, who many years earlier, had developed a more sophisticated version of the formula. Taleb's outspoken and directed commentary against parts of the finance industry—e.g., saying at Davos in 2009 that he was "happy" that

Lehman Brothers Lehman Brothers Inc. ( ) was an American global financial services firm founded in 1850. Before filing for bankruptcy in 2008, Lehman was the fourth-largest investment bank in the United States (behind Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Merril ...

collapsed—was followed by reports of threats and personal attacks. Taleb is known for his uncensored criticism of public figures and institutions. He has referred to former UK Prime Minister

Tony Blair Sir Anthony Charles Lynton Blair (born 6 May 1953) is a British politician who served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 1997 to 2007 and Leader of the Labour Party (UK), Leader of the Labour Party from 1994 to 2007. He was Leader ...

as "a very dishonourable fellow" and Blair's successor,

Gordon Brown James Gordon Brown (born 20 February 1951) is a British politician who served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Labour Party (UK), Leader of the Labour Party from 2007 to 2010. Previously, he was Chancellor of the Ex ...

as "an idiot". He has criticized prominent economists like

Larry Summers Lawrence Henry Summers (born November 30, 1954) is an American economist who served as United States Secretary of the Treasury from 1999 to 2001 and as the director of the National Economic Council from 2009 to 2010. He also served as presiden ...

Paul Krugman Paul Robin Krugman ( ; born February 28, 1953) is an American New Keynesian economics, New Keynesian economist who is the Distinguished Professor of Economics at the CUNY Graduate Center, Graduate Center of the City University of New York. He ...

and

Joseph Stiglitz Joseph Eugene Stiglitz (; born February 9, 1943) is an American New Keynesian economist, a public policy analyst, political activist, and a professor at Columbia University. He is a recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences (2 ...

, stating that "they cause more crises than they solve". He has also been critical of the

, calling it the "International Association of Namedroppers" and stating "they think it's their mission to solve a problem they don't understand."

Recognition and honors

* 2009: ''

Forbes ''Forbes'' () is an American business magazine founded by B. C. Forbes in 1917. It has been owned by the Hong Kong–based investment group Integrated Whale Media Investments since 2014. Its chairman and editor-in-chief is Steve Forbes. The co ...

'' magazine list of "Most Influential Management Gurus" * 2011: Bloomberg 50 most influential people in global finance * 2013, 2014, 2015: Most influential 100 thought leaders in the world by the

Gottlieb Duttweiler Institute The Gottlieb Duttweiler Institute (GDI) is an independent think-tank and the oldest organisation of its kind in Switzerland. It is located in Rüschlikon, near Zurich. The GDI is located on the edge of the Park im Grüene. Established on 1 Sept ...

* 2016: Delivered the 2016 commencement speech at the

American University of Beirut The American University of Beirut (AUB; ) is a private, non-sectarian, and independent university chartered in New York with its main campus in Beirut, Lebanon. AUB is governed by a private, autonomous board of trustees and offers programs le ...

. * 2018: Wolfram Innovator Award for contributions to decision making under complicated and less-idealized probabilistic structures using Mathematica.

Bibliography

Books

Incerto series

''Incerto'' is a group of works by Taleb as philosophical essays on uncertainty. It was bundled into a group of four works in November 2016 . A fifth book, ''Skin in the Game'', was published in February 2018. This fifth book is bundled with the other four works in July 2019 as ''Incerto'' (Deluxe Edition) . * Second ed., 2005. . * Expanded 2nd ed, 2010 . * Expanded 2nd ed, 2016 . * * (This book was not published with the original bundling of the ''Incerto'' series.)

Technical Incerto

Other

* *

Selected papers

* Taleb, N.N., Zalloua, P., Elbassioni, K., Hatzikirou, H., Henschel, A. and Platt, D.E., 2025. Informational rescaling of PCA maps with application to genetic distance. Computational and Structural Biotechnology Journal, 27, pp.48-56. * Taleb, N. N., & West, J. (2023). Working with convex responses: Antifragility from finance to oncology. Entropy, 25(2), 343. * Platt, D. E., Henschel, A., Taleb, N. N., & Zalloua, P. (2024). Anatolian genetic ancestry in North Lebanese populations. Scientific Reports, 14(1), 15518. * * Siegenfeld, A. F., Taleb, N. N., & Bar-Yam, Y. (2020). What models can and cannot tell us about COVID-19. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(28), 16092-16095. * Taleb, N.N.; Norman, J.; Bar-Yam, Y; (26 January 2020) "Systemic Risk of Pandemic via Novel Pathogens – Coronavirus: A Note". ''Academia.edu.'
Systemic Risk of Pandemic via Novel Pathogens – Coronavirus: A Note
* Taleb, N. N. (2019). Medicine and Risk Transfer. Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, (53), 31-32. * * * * * * * * Taleb, N. N., & Treverton, G. F. (2015). The Calm Before the Storm: Why Volatility Signals Stability, and Vice Versa. Foreign Aff., 94, 86.

Notes

References

External links

Website
* * * {{DEFAULTSORT:Taleb, Nassim Nicholas 1960 births Living people 21st-century American male writers 21st-century American non-fiction writers 21st-century American philosophers American male non-fiction writers Aphorists Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences faculty Critics of political economy Epistemologists Greek Orthodox Christians from Lebanon Greek Orthodox Christians from the United States Members of the Greek Orthodox Church of Antioch Lebanese Christians Lebanese emigrants to the United States 20th-century Lebanese philosophers Monte Carlo methodologists New England Complex Systems Institute Paris Dauphine University alumni People from Koura District Polytechnic Institute of New York University faculty University of Massachusetts Amherst faculty Wharton School alumni Mathematical statisticians