Next Portuguese Legislative Election

The next Portuguese legislative election will take place on or before 14 October 2029 to elect members of the Assembly of the Republic to the 18th Legislature of Portugal. All 230 seats to the Assembly of the Republic will be at stake.

The 2025 elections resulted in a hung parliament and the formation of a minority government led by Luís Montenegro. An election may occur before the scheduled date if the President of Portugal dissolves Parliament for a snap election or if the Assembly of the Republic passes a motion of no confidence in the government. Early elections are more likely during minority governments, as the Prime Minister does not command a majority in the Assembly.

Background

The centre-right to right-wing Democratic Alliance (AD), led by incumbent Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, won the largest number of seats. Compared to the 2024 election, the AD increased its vote share to 32%, and received 91 seats. However, this still fell short of the 116 seats required for a majority. The far-right populist party Chega (CH) increased its vote share to nearly 23% and won 60 seats, becoming the second largest party in Parliament. The Socialist Party (PS) lost ground, falling to third place for the first time in democracy, with also nearly 23% of the votes and gathered just 58 seats.

The Liberal Initiative (IL) was able to get nine seats and gather five percent of the votes. LIVRE surpassed BE and PCP by gathering four percent of the votes and six seats.The other left-wing parties, the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Left Bloc (BE), achieved their worst results ever with the Communist-Green alliance getting just three percent of the votes and three seats, while BE lost four seats, electing a sole MP and getting two percent of the votes. People Animals Nature (PAN) was able to win, once again, just one seat, just like the Madeiran based Together for the People (JPP), who entered Parliament for the first time.

Eleven days after election day, on 29 May 2025, Luis Montenegro was asked by President of the Republic Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa to form a government, once again a minority one. The new government was sworn into office on 5 June 2025.

Leadership changes and challenges

Socialist Party

After achieving a disappointing result and finishing in third place, then secretary-general Pedro Nuno Santos resigned on election night, 18 May 2025, leaving the party's president Carlos César as interim leader. A leadership election was ultimately called for 27 and 28 June 2025.

José Luís Carneiro announced his intention to run for the party's leadership on the day after the May 2025 election, while other figures like Mariana Vieira da Silva, Fernando Medina and Alexandra Leitão declined to run. After the deadline for submitting candidacies passed on 12 June 2025, Carneiro was the only candidate to submit one, making him the winner of the ballot and the newly elected leader of the party, although this will only be official after ballot day.

Liberal Initiative

On 31 May 2025, Liberal Initiative President Rui Rocha announced his resignation as leader, citing the new political scenario and the poor increase of the Liberal Initiative in the previous election as reasons for his resignation. The party's secretary-general, Miguel Rangel, assumed the interim leadership until the next convention, after all the vice presidents refused to do so. The leadership convention ended up being scheduled for 19 July 2025.

On 4 June, Mariana Leitão, parliamentary leader and the party's former 2026 presidential candidate, announced her candidacy for the party's leadership, withrawing from the presidential race the following day, while other speculated names like Bernardo Blanco, former MP from Lisbon, Mário Amorim Lopes, MP from Aveiro, and Rui Malheiro, candidate for the February 2025 leadership election, declined to run.

Left Bloc

The Left Bloc is expected to hold a leadership convention on 29 and 30 November 2025, in which incumbent party leader, and sole MP, Mariana Mortágua has already announced her intention to run again. Due to the party's disappointing results in the May 2025 legislative elections, a challenge to her leadership is expected.

Politics of Portugal

The President of Portugal has the power to dissolve the Assembly of the Republic by his/her own will. Unlike in other countries, the President can refuse to dissolve the parliament at the request of the Prime Minister or the Assembly of the Republic and all the parties represented in Parliament. If the Prime Minister resigns, the President can appoint a new Prime Minister after listening to all the parties represented in Parliament and then the government programme must be subject to discussion by the Assembly of the Republic, whose members of parliament may present a motion to reject the upcoming government, or dissolve Parliament and call new elections.

Date

According to the Portuguese Constitution, an election must be called between 14 September and 14 October of the year that the legislature ends. The election is called by the President of Portugal but is not called at the request of the Prime Minister; however, the President must listen to all of the parties represented in Parliament and the election day must be announced at least 60 days before the election. If an election is called during an ongoing legislature (dissolution of parliament) it must be held at least after 55 days. Election day is the same in all multi-seats constituencies, and should fall on a Sunday or national holiday. The next legislative election must, therefore, take place no later than 14 October 2029.

Electoral system

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude. The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.

The distribution of MPs by electoral district for the 2025 legislative election was the following:

Parties

The table below lists parties currently represented in the Assembly of the Republic.

Opinion polling

See also

* Elections in Portugal
* List of political parties in Portugal
* Politics of Portugal

Notes

References

External links

Official results site, Portuguese Justice Ministry

Portuguese Electoral Commission

ERC - Official publication of polls

{{Portuguese elections
Legislative elections in Portugal
Future elections in Portugal