Next Myanmar General Election

Myanmar's military government plans to hold a general election for elected seats in the Amyotha Hluttaw and the Pyithu Hluttaw of the Assembly of the Union, currently dissolved, on a date to be determined. The planned election would be the first after the 2021 military coup d'état. Though military ruler Min Aung Hlaing initially promised to hold the election by August 2023, the military has since indefinitely delayed the election in the face of increasing violence.

Since the coup, the military has ruled the country under a state of emergency, initially declared by Acting President Myint Swe for one year and extended seven times by six-month periods, currently set to expire on 1 August 2025. The constitution requires elections be held within six months of the end of the state of emergency. Min Aung Hlaing has provided different time frames for the election three times; an exact date has never been set. Most recently, in March 2025, Min Aung Hlaing suggested a possible December 2025 or January 2026 election date. This timeline has been reaffirmed despite the 2025 Myanmar earthquake. The election is expected to be a sham election intended to legitimize continued military rule. A census that will be used for the election was conducted in October 2024.

In January 2023, the military enacted a new electoral law tightening the requirements for party registration, banning the participation of people convicted of a crime including Aung San Suu Kyi and Win Myint, and switching from a first-past-the-post to a proportional system. Analysts see the changes as intended to improve the electoral performance of the military proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party, which performed poorly in the free and fair 2020 election. Most opposition to the USDP will be seriously weakened under the new rules. Added to the previously existing 25% reserved seats to the military, the switch to proportional representation would allow it to govern with just over a third of the popular vote. The National League for Democracy, which was removed from power in the coup, announced in February 2023 that it would not register under the new law, and was declared dissolved by the election commission the following month. The second-largest opposition party, the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy, similarly announced it would not participate in the election.

Background

Myanmar, previously known as Burma, has been under a dictatorship for the majority of its independent history. First, under Ne Win and his Burma Socialist Programme Party, and then under a military junta. In the early 2010s, Myanmar transitioned into a state of semi-democracy, finally culminating in the 2015 elections, where democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi became State Counsellor, and her party the National League for Democracy won a landslide victory.

2020 election performance

On the eve of the November 2020 election, Min Aung Hlaing publicly questioned the legitimacy of the upcoming 2020 election. After casting his ballot, he vowed to accept the election results. In the 2020 general elections, the NLD won another landslide over the Tatmadaw (military)-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, which lost additional seats in both chambers of the national legislature. Domestic and international election observers deemed the election results credible, noting no major irregularities.

Nonetheless, the military claimed the vote was fraudulent, citing 8.6 million irregularities in voter lists. On 28 January 2021, the Union Election Commission rejected the military's fraud allegations, unable to corroborate the military's claims.

2021 military coup

On 1 February 2021, the military launched a coup. Suu Kyi was detained, along with President Win Myint, and other key individuals. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing took power, organizing a junta called the State Administration Council (SAC). Myint Swe was declared interim President, and a state of emergency was declared for one year. In late February, the SAC unveiled a five-point roadmap, with the ultimate goal of holding "a free and fair multiparty democracy election."

Aung San Suu Kyi received a number of frivolous charges, including breaching emergency COVID-19 laws, illegally importing and using walkie-talkies, violating the National Disaster Law, violating communications laws, inciting public unrest, and violating the official secrets act. On 6 December 2021, she was sentenced to four years in prison, but Min Aung Hlaing commuted her sentence to two years. Her conviction complicates her ability to hold public office.

On 1 August 2021, Min Aung Hlaing formed a caretaker government, and declared himself Prime Minister, whilst remaining the Chairman of the SAC.

The Tatmadaw originally promised to hold the elections when the state of emergency expired on 1 February 2022, but pushed back the elections first to 2023, and the delayed them indefinitely.

Dissolution of the NLD

On 21 May 2021, the junta-appointed Union Election Commission announced plans to permanently dissolve the National League for Democracy. NLD offices were occupied and raided by police authorities, starting on 2 February. Documents, computers and laptops were forcibly seized, and the NLD called these raids unlawful. On 9 February, police raided the NLD headquarters in Yangon. Aung San Suu Kyi has commented on the possibility of her party's forced dissolution saying, "Our party grew out of the people so it will exist as long as people support it."

In January 2022, the junta reversed its plan to dissolve the NLD, with spokesman Zaw Min Tun saying that the NLD will decide whether to stand in the 2023 election. In February 2023, the NLD announced it would not re-register as a political party under a strict new electoral law enacted by the junta the previous month. The electoral commission automatically disbanded NLD, along with 39 other parties, on 28 March 2023.

Electoral system

Previously, Myanmar has exclusively used the first-past-the-post system, in which a candidate needs only a plurality of votes in a constituency to be elected. On 16 June 2022, Khin Maung Oo, a member of the Union Election Commission, said at a press conference in Naypyidaw that the country will use a proportional representation system instead for the next election.

Existing system

In the existing system, the national legislature, the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw consists of a total of 498 seats elected in single-member constituencies, and 166 seats reserved for military appointees.

The Pyithu Hluttaw, or House of Representatives, is elected every five years. It is the lower house. It has 440 MPs, 330 of which are elected in single-member constituencies, one for each township. A further 110 members (one quarter) are appointed by the Tatmadaw.

The Amyotha Hluttaw, or House of Nationalities, is elected every five years. It is the upper house. It has 224 MPs, 168 of which are elected in single-member constituencies, 12 in each state or region. A further 56 members (one quarter) are appointed by the Tatmadaw.

In Myanmar, it is not uncommon for elections to be cancelled partially or completely in some constituencies due to insurrection.

After the new legislators take office, the President and the two Vice Presidents of Myanmar are elected by the Presidential Electoral College, made up of MPs from three committees: one of elected members from each house of the Assembly of the Union, and one from the military-appointed members. Each committee recommends one candidate, and the Assembly then holds a vote. The position the candidates are elected to depends on their overall vote total (the highest vote-getter becomes President, while the second-highest becomes First Vice President, and the remaining candidate becomes Second Vice President).

People married to a non-Burmese citizen and/or who have children without Burmese citizenship are barred from being elected to any presidential position. This requirement has been criticized by some as being an attempt to disqualify Suu Kyi. Her late husband was a British citizen, so she was ineligible to be President. Instead, she became State Counsellor, and President Win Myint was seen as her puppet.

Revisions to the existing system

In December 2021, the junta-appointed Union Electoral Commission convened with 60 political parties on the electoral system. The cohort determined that it would be advisable to switch to a system of party-list proportional representation (PR). The largest remainder method will be used, and the lists will be closed, although there may be a switch to open lists "when the level of education of the electorate and the political tide rises". The townships will be merged into districts for constituencies.

Observers and anti-junta factions have criticized the change in electoral system for politically motivated, aimed at increasing the junta's electoral performance. In 2014, the Amyotha Hluttaw had previously approved a switch to the PR system, but it was not pursued further by the Pyithu Hluttaw for being "unconstitutional." The PR system also implies larger multi-member constituencies, which could enable the military to avoid having to cancel elections in insecure regions.

On 26 January 2023, the military junta issued the Political Parties Registration Law to force political parties to re-register within 60 days, or face automatic dissolution. The law also introduced new financial (possessing at least in funds), party membership (having 100,000 members, an increase from 1,000), and logistical requirements (contesting half of all constituencies and operating party offices in half of all townships), effectively aimed at limiting electoral participation to few national parties like the USDP. The NLD and SNLD, and 38 other parties were both disbanded by the law on 28 March.

Conduct

The election is expected by independent analysts and foreign bodies, including those at the United Nations, Human Rights Watch, and the U.S. State Department, to be neither free nor fair, and rather a sham election intended to legitimize further military rule.

The Union Election Commission (UEC) organises and oversees in Myanmar. During the 2021 coup, Hla Thein, the civilian-appointed UEC chair was arrested by military authorities, and subsequently sentenced to prison. The military junta replaced him with Thein Soe, a former military general who had previously overseen the 2010 Myanmar general election. Some have expressed concerns about the Tatmadaw's willingness to hold free and fair elections.

Although the past three elections in Myanmar have been semi-free, there have been concerns over such things as irregularities in voter lists, misinformation, fake news, and the vilification of Burmese Muslims. In addition, under the military-designed 2008 Constitution, the military is effectively guaranteed one vice presidency, and a quarter of the seats in both chambers of the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw, veto power over voter-elected legislators, as well as a third of the seats in all state and regional Hluttaws, and key ministries.

Some members of the NLD dominated Pyidaungsu Hluttaw elected in 2020 have formed an anti-cabinet known as the National Unity Government of Myanmar. The NUG claims to be the legitimate government of Myanmar, and the junta and the NUG consider each other terrorist groups. The coup has since escalated into a Myanmar civil war (2021–present) between the Armed Forces, and the NUG's People's Defence Force and ethnic armed organisations (EAOs), resulting in thousands of military and civilian casualties, and the displacement of an additional 1.7 million people . This, along with ongoing ethnic conflicts, means the vote will likely be cancelled in some constituencies, and may not be secure in others.

The planned election may trigger an escalation in violence, due to widespread public opposition. Since January 2023, resistance forces have attacked and killed individuals associated with the planned election, including local administrators gathering data for voter lists. On 29 January, the NUG declared that individuals cooperating with the election would be deemed "accomplices of high treason." Major EAOs, including the Chin National Front, Karenni National Progressive Party, Karen National Union, Kachin Independence Organisation, and the Ta-ang National Liberation Army, have also criticised the planned election.

Timing

The election date has not been officially announced. The Constitution requires that elections be held within six months of the end of a declared state of emergency, which the military has extended repeatedly since the 2021 coup.

In 2021, Min Aung Hlaing initially promised an election by August 2023, saying one would be held "without fail". This was the latest date that would have been allowed under the constitutional rule stating two six month extensions of the state of emergency are "normally" allowed. However, the election was not held and the state of emergency was repeatedly extended past the two-extension limit. In 2024, Min Aung Hlaing announced that a census would be held between October 1 and 15 and promised to hold the election in 2025. The census began as scheduled on October 1. During a visit in Belarus on March 8, 2025, Min Aung Hlaing announced that the election will be conducted around December 2025 or January 2026. On March 26, state media reported that at a meeting of the State Administration Council, Min Aung Hlaing set a plan for the election to be held either in the last two weeks of December or in the first two weeks of January. On March 27, in a speech for Armed Forces Day, Min Aung Hlaing appeared to narrow the date to December. Despite the highly destabilizing 2025 Myanmar earthquake that occurred the next day, Min Aung Hlaing said on April 3 that the timeline for the election would not change.

In addition to ongoing security concerns, the election date may have also been delayed to forestall infighting within the Burmese military leadership around succession planning. It remains unclear if Min Aung Hlaing will remain commander-in-chief or seek the presidency, and whether he can appoint a loyal candidate to either role, since the Constitution does not permit him to assume both.

Reactions

In March 2023, the governments of the United States, European Union, United Kingdom, Japan, France, Germany, and Australia strongly condemned the military junta's dissolution of the NLD and other political parties. The US and Germany stated they expect the election will not be free and fair. The German government posited that the junta's moves threaten to escalate violence in the country, and further destabilise the country. Japan's ministry of foreign affairs called for the release of all NLD officials, and noted the NLD's exclusion will hamper attempts to peacefully improve the country's political situation. Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade characterised the junta's moves as a "further narrowing of political space in Myanmar." The European Union reiterated its support for ASEAN's Five-Point Consensus.

Political parties

The table below lists parties that managed to elect representatives to the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw in 2020 that have registered to contest the next election. Most parties in Myanmar represent one of the country's many ethnic minorities.

The table below lists political parties that were dissolved by the junta, including the NLD and SNLD, that won 88% of the national parliamentary seats in the 2020 election.

References

{{Myanmar elections

Elections in Myanmar
Myanmar
Military rule in Myanmar