In
weather forecasting
Weather forecasting or weather prediction is the application of science and technology forecasting, to predict the conditions of the Earth's atmosphere, atmosphere for a given location and time. People have attempted to predict the weather info ...
, model output statistics (MOS) is a multiple
linear regression
In statistics, linear regression is a statistical model, model that estimates the relationship between a Scalar (mathematics), scalar response (dependent variable) and one or more explanatory variables (regressor or independent variable). A mode ...
technique in which
predictands, often near-surface quantities (such as two-meter-above-ground-level air
temperature
Temperature is a physical quantity that quantitatively expresses the attribute of hotness or coldness. Temperature is measurement, measured with a thermometer. It reflects the average kinetic energy of the vibrating and colliding atoms making ...
, horizontal
visibility
In meteorology, visibility is the measure of the distance at which an object or light can be clearly discerned. It depends on the Transparency and translucency, transparency of the surrounding air and as such, it is unchanging no matter the amb ...
, and
wind
Wind is the natural movement of atmosphere of Earth, air or other gases relative to a planetary surface, planet's surface. Winds occur on a range of scales, from thunderstorm flows lasting tens of minutes, to local breezes generated by heatin ...
direction,
speed
In kinematics, the speed (commonly referred to as ''v'') of an object is the magnitude of the change of its position over time or the magnitude of the change of its position per unit of time; it is thus a non-negative scalar quantity. Intro ...
and
gusts), are related statistically to one or more predictors. The predictors are typically forecasts from a
numerical weather prediction
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to weather forecasting, predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of comput ...
(NWP) model, climatic data, and, if applicable, recent surface observations. Thus, output from NWP models can be transformed by the MOS technique into sensible weather parameters that are familiar to a layperson.
Background
Output directly from the NWP model's lowest layer(s) generally is not used by forecasters because the actual physical processes that occur within the Earth's
boundary layer
In physics and fluid mechanics, a boundary layer is the thin layer of fluid in the immediate vicinity of a Boundary (thermodynamic), bounding surface formed by the fluid flowing along the surface. The fluid's interaction with the wall induces ...
are crudely approximated in the model (i.e.,
physical parameterizations) along with its relatively coarse horizontal resolution. Because of this lack of fidelity and its imperfect initial state, forecasts of near-surface quantities obtained directly from the model are subject to systematic (bias) and random model errors, which tend to grow with time.
In the development of MOS equations, past observations and archived NWP model forecast fields are used with a screening regression to determine the 'best' predictors and their coefficients for a particular predictand and forecast time. By using archived model forecast output along with verifying surface observations, the resulting equations implicitly take into account physical effects and processes which the underlying numerical weather prediction model cannot explicitly resolve, resulting in much better forecasts of sensible weather quantities. In addition to correcting systematic errors, MOS can produce reliable probabilities of weather events from a single model run. In contrast, despite the enormous amount of computing resources devoted to generating them, ensemble model forecasts' relative frequency of events—often used as a proxy for probability—do not exhibit useful reliability. Thus, ensemble NWP model output also requires additional post-processing in order to obtain reliable probabilistic forecasts, using
nonhomogeneous Gaussian regression or other methods.
History
United States
MOS was conceived and planning for its use began within the U.S.
National Weather Service
The National Weather Service (NWS) is an Government agency, agency of the Federal government of the United States, United States federal government that is tasked with providing weather forecasts, warnings of hazardous weather, and other weathe ...
’s (NWS’s) Techniques Development Laboratory (TDL) in 1965 and forecasts first issued from it in 1968. Since then, TDL, now the Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL), continued to create, refine and update MOS equation sets as additional NWP models were developed and made operational at the National Meteorological Center (NMC) and then the
Environmental Modeling Center or EMC.
Given its multi-decadal history within the U.S. NWS and its continuous improvement and superior skill over direct NWP model output, MOS guidance is still one of the most valuable forecast tools used by forecasters within the agency.
United States forecast guidance
There are eight sets of MOS guidance available from MDL, operational and experimental, covering the span of time from the next hour out to ten days for the United States and most of its territories.
Guam
Guam ( ; ) is an island that is an Territories of the United States, organized, unincorporated territory of the United States in the Micronesia subregion of the western Pacific Ocean. Guam's capital is Hagåtña, Guam, Hagåtña, and the most ...
and surrounding Northern Mariana Islands
The Northern Mariana Islands, officially the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), is an Territories of the United States, unincorporated territory and Commonwealth (U.S. insular area), commonwealth of the United States consistin ...
only have GFS MOS guidance available
Nested Grid Model MOS was discontinued in 2009.
Initially, MOS guidance was developed for airports and other fixed locales where
METAR
METAR is a format for reporting weather information. A METAR weather report is predominantly used by aircraft pilots, and by meteorologists, who use aggregated METAR information to assist in weather forecasting.
Raw METAR is highly standardize ...
s (or similar reports) were routinely issued. Therefore, MOS guidance was and continues to be provided in an alphanumeric 'bulletin' format for these locations. Here is an example of a short-range MOS forecast for Clinton-Sherman Airport, Oklahoma (KCSM) based on the EMC's
Global Forecast System
The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States' National Weather Service (NWS).
Operation
The mathematical model is ...
model output.
With the availability of private- and government-owned weather
mesonet
In meteorology and climatology, a mesonet, portmanteau of mesoscale network, is a network of automated weather and, often also including environmental monitoring stations, designed to observe mesoscale meteorological phenomena and/or microclima ...
s, new objective analysis and interpolation techniques, gridded GFS MOS guidance became available in 2006.
Advantages and disadvantages
The advantage of MOS forecast guidance as developed in the United States allowed for
* the removal of NWP model bias,
* prediction of
weather
Weather is the state of the atmosphere, describing for example the degree to which it is hot or cold, wet or dry, calm or stormy, clear or cloud cover, cloudy. On Earth, most weather phenomena occur in the lowest layer of the planet's atmo ...
elements not forecast by the NWP model, e.g., surface visibilities,
cloud ceiling heights,
* reliable probabilities of binary events, e.g.
probability of precipitation and (severe)
thunderstorm
A thunderstorm, also known as an electrical storm or a lightning storm, is a storm characterized by the presence of lightning and its acoustics, acoustic effect on the Earth's atmosphere, known as thunder. Relatively weak thunderstorm ...
s,
* reliable probabilities of categorical events, e.g., probability of clear, scattered, broken or
overcast
Overcast or overcast weather, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization, is the meteorological condition of clouds obscuring at least 95% of the sky. However, the total cloud cover must not be entirely due to obscuring phenomena near ...
skies.
These points, while greatly desired by forecasters, do come at a price. From its very beginnings, the development of robust MOS equations for a particular NWP model required at least two years' worth of archived model output and observations, during which time the NWP model should remain unchanged, or nearly so. This requirement is necessary in order to fully capture the model's error characteristics under a wide variety of meteorological flow regimes for any particular location or region. Extreme meteorological events such as unusual cold- or heat-waves, heavy rain and snowfall, high winds, etc., are important in the development of robust MOS equations. A lengthy model archive has the best chance of capturing such events.
From the 1970s and into the 1980s, this requirement was not very onerous since
EMC (then NMC) scientists, being relatively constrained by computational resources at the time, could only make relatively minor, incremental improvements to their NWP models. However, since the 1990s, NWP models have been upgraded more frequently, oftentimes with significant changes in physics and horizontal and vertical grid resolutions. Since MOS corrects systematic biases of the NWP model it is based on, any changes to the NWP model's error characteristics affects MOS guidance, usually in a negative way. This was a factor in the discontinuation of the MOS for the individual ensemble members of the GFS in April 2019; that product had not been updated since 2009, and NOAA decided to cease offering the product instead of bringing it up to date.
In the case of a major upgrade to a NWP model, the
EMC will run the newer version of model in parallel with the operational one for many months to allow for direct comparison of model performance. In addition to parallel real-time runs, EMC also runs the newer model to examine past events and seasons, i.e., retrospective forecasts.
All of these runs from the upgraded model allows the National Weather Service,
Weather Prediction Center
The Weather Prediction Center (WPC), located in College Park, Maryland, is one of nine service centers under the umbrella of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a part of the National Weather Service (NWS), which in turn is ...
(WPC),
National Hurricane Center
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is the division of the United States' NOAA/National Weather Service responsible for tracking and predicting tropical weather systems between the IERS Reference Meridian, Prime Meridian and the 140th meridian ...
(NHC), and
Storm Prediction Center
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is a US government agency that is part of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), operating under the control of the National Weather Service (NWS), which in turn is part of the National Oceani ...
(SPC) to evaluate its performance prior to the decision to either accept or reject it for operational use. MDL scientists have taken advantage of these runs to evaluate and reformulate the MOS equations as needed to avoid deterioration in guidance quality.
Other weather centers
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute developed a MOS system to forecast probabilities of (severe) thunderstorms in the Netherlands.
Scientists from the Meteorological Service of Canada developed a post-processing system called Updateable MOS (UMOS) that quickly incorporates changes to their regional NWP model without the need for a lengthy model archive. The Canadian UMOS system generates a 2-day forecast of temperatures, wind speed and direction and probability of precipitation (POP). UMOS temperature and wind forecasts are provided at 3-h intervals, and POP at 6-h intervals.
Scientists at the Kongju National University have also implemented a UMOS system to create forecasts of air temperatures over South Korea.
It is unclear as to whether it is used operationally at the Korean Meteorological Administration.
Notes
References
Further reading
*
{{Atmospheric, Oceanographic and Climate Models
Climate and weather statistics
Weather forecasting