Michael Kofman is an American military analyst known for his expertise on the

Russian Armed Forces The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, commonly referred to as the Russian Armed Forces, are the military of Russia. They are organized into three service branches—the Russian Ground Forces, Ground Forces, Russian Navy, Navy, and Russi ...

. He is the former director of the Russia Studies Program at CNA, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) is a nonpartisan international affairs think tank headquartered in Washington, D.C., with operations in Europe, South Asia, East Asia, and the Middle East, as well as the United States. Foun ...

, fellow of the Center for a New American Security, and until 2021 was a fellow of the Kennan Institute at the

Wilson Center The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (WWICS) or Wilson Center is a Washington, D.C.–based think tank dedicated to research and policy discussions on global issues. Established by an act of Congress in 1968, it serves as both ...

Personal life and education

Kofman was born in

Kyiv Kyiv, also Kiev, is the capital and most populous List of cities in Ukraine, city of Ukraine. Located in the north-central part of the country, it straddles both sides of the Dnieper, Dnieper River. As of 1 January 2022, its population was 2, ...

Ukrainian SSR The Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, abbreviated as the Ukrainian SSR, UkrSSR, and also known as Soviet Ukraine or just Ukraine, was one of the Republics of the Soviet Union, constituent republics of the Soviet Union from 1922 until 1991. ...

Soviet Union The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. (USSR), commonly known as the Soviet Union, was a List of former transcontinental countries#Since 1700, transcontinental country that spanned much of Eurasia from 1922 until Dissolution of the Soviet ...

(now

Ukraine Ukraine is a country in Eastern Europe. It is the List of European countries by area, second-largest country in Europe after Russia, which Russia–Ukraine border, borders it to the east and northeast. Ukraine also borders Belarus to the nor ...

), and lived in Nikolaev (now

Mykolaiv Mykolaiv ( ), also known as Nikolaev ( ) is a List of cities in Ukraine, city and a hromada (municipality) in southern Ukraine. Mykolaiv is the Administrative centre, administrative center of Mykolaiv Raion (Raions of Ukraine, district) and Myk ...

) before emigrating to the U.S. in early 1991, prior to

Ukrainian independence Ukraine emerged as the concept of a nation, and Ukrainians as a nationality, with the Ukrainian National Revival which began in the late 18th and early 19th century. The first wave of national revival is traditionally connected with the publi ...

and the

collapse of the Soviet Union The Soviet Union was formally dissolved as a sovereign state and subject of international law on 26 December 1991 by Declaration No. 142-N of the Soviet of the Republics of the Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union. Declaration No. 142-Н of ...

. Kofman speaks fluent Russian and English. He attained a

Bachelor of Arts A Bachelor of Arts (abbreviated B.A., BA, A.B. or AB; from the Latin ', ', or ') is the holder of a bachelor's degree awarded for an undergraduate program in the liberal arts, or, in some cases, other disciplines. A Bachelor of Arts deg ...

degree in

political science Political science is the scientific study of politics. It is a social science dealing with systems of governance and Power (social and political), power, and the analysis of political activities, political philosophy, political thought, polit ...

Northeastern University Northeastern University (NU or NEU) is a private university, private research university with its main campus in Boston, Massachusetts, United States. It was founded by the Boston Young Men's Christian Association in 1898 as an all-male instit ...

, and a

Master of Arts A Master of Arts ( or ''Artium Magister''; abbreviated MA or AM) is the holder of a master's degree awarded by universities in many countries. The degree is usually contrasted with that of Master of Science. Those admitted to the degree have ...

degree in

international security ''International Security'' is a peer-reviewed academic journal in the field of international and national security. It was founded in 1976 and is edited by the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University and publis ...

at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at

Georgetown University Georgetown University is a private university, private Jesuit research university in Washington, D.C., United States. Founded by Bishop John Carroll (archbishop of Baltimore), John Carroll in 1789, it is the oldest Catholic higher education, Ca ...

. He lives in

Alexandria, Virginia Alexandria is an independent city (United States), independent city in Northern Virginia, United States. It lies on the western bank of the Potomac River approximately south of Washington, D.C., D.C. The city's population of 159,467 at the 2020 ...

Career

From 2005 to 2006, Kofman was a researcher at the

United States Institute of Peace The United States Institute of Peace (USIP) is an American independent, nonprofit, national institute funded by the U.S. Congress and tasked with promoting conflict resolution and prevention worldwide. See alsPDF on USIP website. It provides rese ...

. From 2008 to 2014, he was a research fellow at the

National Defense University National Defence (or Defense) University (or College) may refer to: :''Alphabetical by country'' University * Marshal Fahim National Defense University, Afghanistan * National Defense University (Azerbaijan) * People's Liberation Army National Defe ...

. He served as a program manager and subject matter expert, advising U.S. government and military officials on matters related to Russia and

Eurasia Eurasia ( , ) is a continental area on Earth, comprising all of Europe and Asia. According to some geographers, Physical geography, physiographically, Eurasia is a single supercontinent. The concept of Europe and Asia as distinct continents d ...

. From 2014 to 2021, he was a

fellow A fellow is a title and form of address for distinguished, learned, or skilled individuals in academia, medicine, research, and industry. The exact meaning of the term differs in each field. In learned society, learned or professional society, p ...

of the Kennan Institute at the

Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (WWICS) or Wilson Center is a Washington, D.C.–based think tank A think tank, or public policy institute, is a research institute that performs research and advocacy concerning topi ...

, a U.S. think tank dedicated to the study of Russia and other post-Soviet states. In 2015, Kofman joined the CNA Corporation as a research scientist. His research focused on Russia and the former Soviet Union, and he specializes in the

, Russian military thought, capabilities, and strategy. As of 2020, he serves as the Research Program Director of the CNA's Russia Studies Program. He was also a fellow at the Modern War Institute from 2017 to 2018, and has been a senior adjunct fellow at the Center for a New American Security since 2021. Kofman also hosts ''The Russia Contingency'' on War on the Rocks, which is a bi-weekly podcast analyzing the Russian military and the ongoing war in Ukraine. During the

Russian invasion of Ukraine On 24 February 2022, , starting the largest and deadliest war in Europe since World War II, in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, conflict between the two countries which began in 2014. The fighting has caused hundreds of thou ...

that started in 2022, as CNA's expert studying Russia's armed forces, Kofman's political commentary has been cited in connection with the conflict. In an interview with ''

The New Yorker ''The New Yorker'' is an American magazine featuring journalism, commentary, criticism, essays, fiction, satire, cartoons, and poetry. It was founded on February 21, 1925, by Harold Ross and his wife Jane Grant, a reporter for ''The New York T ...

'', Kofman said that the Russian military was "deeply optimistic about their ability to quickly get into the capital and force Zelensky to either flee or surrender. So the initial operation is a complete debacle. It was based entirely on political assumptions in Moscow that basically nothing had changed in Ukraine since 2014, and that they could conduct a slightly larger version of the 2014 operation." He has said that the Russian military was "not built for this war. In terms of manpower, readiness, and logistics, it was not designed to sustain strategic ground offensives or hold large tracts of terrain, especially in a country the size of

." Speaking at an event hosted by RUSI, Kofman said that while the logistics problems with the Russian military's offensive are "oversold", that they will nevertheless become "extremely hard to undo ... militaries often have to learn problems the hard way."

Notes

References

External links

Russian Military Analysis
- Michael Kofman's personal blog {{DEFAULTSORT:Kofman, Michael American military writers Year of birth missing (living people) Living people Soviet emigrants to the United States Ukrainian emigrants to the United States People from Mykolaiv People from Alexandria, Virginia