A seismic hazard is the probability that an

earthquake An earthquake (also known as a quake, tremor or temblor) is the shaking of the surface of the Earth resulting from a sudden release of energy in the Earth's lithosphere that creates seismic waves. Earthquakes can range in intensity, from ...

will occur in a given geographic area, within a given window of time, and with ground motion intensity exceeding a given threshold. With a hazard thus estimated,

risk In simple terms, risk is the possibility of something bad happening. Risk involves uncertainty about the effects/implications of an activity with respect to something that humans value (such as health, well-being, wealth, property or the environme ...

can be assessed and included in such areas as

building code A building code (also building control or building regulations) is a set of rules that specify the standards for constructed objects such as buildings and non-building structures. Buildings must conform to the code to obtain planning permiss ...

s for standard buildings, designing larger buildings and infrastructure projects,

land use planning Land use planning is the process of regulating the use of land by a central authority. Usually, this is done to promote more desirable social and environmental outcomes as well as a more efficient use of resources. More specifically, the goals ...

and determining insurance rates. The seismic hazard studies also may generate two standard measures of anticipated ground motion, both confusingly abbreviated MCE; the simpler probabilistic Maximum Considered Earthquake (or Event ), used in standard building codes, and the more detailed and deterministic Maximum Credible Earthquake incorporated in the design of larger buildings and civil infrastructure like dams or bridges. It is important to clarify which MCE is being discussed. Calculations for determining seismic hazard were first formulated by

C. Allin Cornell Carl Allin Cornell (September 19, 1938 – December 14, 2007) was an American civil engineer, researcher, and professor who made important contributions to reliability theory and earthquake engineering and, along with Luis Esteva, developed th ...

in 1968 and, depending on their level of importance and use, can be quite complex. The regional geology and seismology setting is first examined for sources and patterns of earthquake occurrence, both in depth and at the surface from

seismometer A seismometer is an instrument that responds to ground noises and shaking such as caused by earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and explosions. They are usually combined with a timing device and a recording device to form a seismograph. The outp ...

records; secondly, the impacts from these sources are assessed relative to local geologic rock and soil types, slope angle and groundwater conditions. Zones of similar potential earthquake shaking are thus determined and drawn on maps. The well known

San Andreas Fault The San Andreas Fault is a continental transform fault that extends roughly through California. It forms the tectonic boundary between the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate, and its motion is right-lateral strike-slip (horizontal) ...

is illustrated as a long narrow elliptical zone of greater potential motion, like many areas along continental margins associated with the Pacific ring of fire. Zones of higher seismicity in the continental interior may be the site for intraplate earthquakes) and tend to be drawn as broad areas, based on historic records, like the

1812 New Madrid earthquake Year 181 ( CLXXXI) was a common year starting on Sunday (link will display the full calendar) of the Julian calendar. At the time, it was known as the Year of the Consulship of Aurelius and Burrus (or, less frequently, year 934 '' Ab urbe condi ...

, since specific causative faults are generally not identified as earthquake sources. Each zone is given properties associated with source potential: how many earthquakes per year, the maximum size of earthquakes (

maximum magnitude An important parameter in the calculation of seismic hazard, maximum magnitude (expressed as Moment magnitude scale) is also one of the more contentious. The choice of the value can greatly influence the final outcome of the results, yet this is m ...

), etc. Finally, the calculations require formulae that give the required hazard indicators for a given earthquake size and distance. For example, some districts prefer to use peak acceleration, others use peak velocity, and more sophisticated uses require response spectral ordinates. The computer program then integrates over all the zones and produces probability curves for the key ground motion parameter. The final result gives a 'chance' of exceeding a given value over a specified amount of time. Standard building codes for homeowners might be concerned with a 1 in 500 years chance, while nuclear plants look at the 10,000 year time frame. A longer-term seismic history can be obtained through paleoseismology. The results may be in the form of a ground

response spectrum A response spectrum is a plot of the peak or steady-state response (displacement, velocity or acceleration) of a series of oscillators of varying natural frequency, that are forced into motion by the same base vibration or shock. The resulting ...

for use in seismic analysis. More elaborate variations on the theme also look at the soil conditions. Higher ground motions are likely to be experienced on a soft swamp compared to a hard rock site. The standard seismic hazard calculations become adjusted upwards when postulating characteristic earthquakes. Areas with high ground motion due to soil conditions are also often subject to soil failure due to liquefaction. Soil failure can also occur due to earthquake-induced landslides in steep terrain. Large area landsliding can also occur on rather gentle slopes as was seen in the Good Friday earthquake in

Anchorage, Alaska Anchorage () is the largest city in the U.S. state of Alaska by population. With a population of 291,247 in 2020, it contains nearly 40% of the state's population. The Anchorage metropolitan area, which includes Anchorage and the neighboring ...

, March 28, 1964.

MCEs

In a normal seismic hazard analyses intended for the public, that of a "maximum considered earthquake", or "maximum considered event" (MCE) for a specific area, is an earthquake that is expected to occur once in approximately 2,500 years; that is, it has a 2-percent probability of being exceeded in 50 years. The term is used specifically for general building codes, which people commonly occupy; building codes in many localities will require non-essential buildings to be designed for "collapse prevention" in an MCE, so that the building remains standing - allowing for safety and escape of occupants - rather than full structural survival of the building. A far more detailed and stringent MCE stands for "maximum credible earthquake", which is used in designing for skyscrapers and larger civil infrastructure, like dams, where structural failure could lead to other catastrophic consequences. These MCEs might require determining more than one specific earthquake event, depending on the variety of structures included.

US seismic hazard maps

Some maps released by the

USGS The United States Geological Survey (USGS), formerly simply known as the Geological Survey, is a scientific agency of the United States government. The scientists of the USGS study the landscape of the United States, its natural resources, ...

are shown with

peak ground acceleration Peak ground acceleration (PGA) is equal to the maximum ground acceleration that occurred during earthquake shaking at a location. PGA is equal to the amplitude of the largest absolute acceleration recorded on an accelerogram at a site during a part ...

with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, measured in Metre per second squared. For parts of the US, the National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project in 2008 resulted in seismic hazard maps showing peak acceleration (as a percentage of

gravity In physics, gravity () is a fundamental interaction which causes mutual attraction between all things with mass or energy. Gravity is, by far, the weakest of the four fundamental interactions, approximately 1038 times weaker than the str ...

) with a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. Temblor, a company founded in 2014, offers a seismic hazard rank for the all of the conterminous US. This service is free and ad-free for the public. The hazard rank "is made for the likelihood of experiencing strong shaking (0.4g peak ground acceleration) in 30 years, based on the 2014 USGS NSHMP hazard model."

References

External links

Global Seismic Hazard Assessment ProgramInfrastructure Risk Research Project at The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, CanadaDiagnose the impact of global earthquakes from direct and indirect eyewitnesses contributions
{{DEFAULTSORT:Seismic Hazard Earthquake and seismic risk mitigation

MCEs

US seismic hazard maps

See also

References

External links