Matthew Connelly

Matthew James Connelly (born November 25, 1967) is an American professor of international and global history at Columbia University. His areas of expertise include the global Cold War, official secrecy, population control, and decolonization. He is the author of ''Fatal Misconception: The Struggle to Control World Population'', ''A Diplomatic Revolution: Algeria's Fight for Independence and the Origins of the Post-Cold War Era'', and articles on international and domestic politics for ''The'' ''Atlantic Monthly'', ''The New York Times'', ''The National Interest'', and ''Le Monde''. Connelly is also the founder and principal investigator of History Lab.

Career

Matthew Connelly earned his BA in history from Columbia University in 1990, before earning his doctorate from Yale University in 1997. His dissertation, “The Algerian War for Independence: An International History”, written under the supervision of Gaddis Smith, Paul Kennedy, and William Quandt, formed the basis for ''A Diplomatic Revolution''. Prior to his appointment at Columbia University, he taught in the Department of History and Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan. He has also been a visiting professor at the Institut d’Etudes Politiques de Paris (Sciences Po), the University of Oslo, and the University of Sydney.

He is also the co-director of the Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia.

Academic work

Connelly's research predominantly focuses on the history of the 20th century. His work employs novel and innovative approaches to historical study, including examining the past through a global or transnational lens, and applying data-mining techniques to historical research.

''A Diplomatic Revolution''

Connelly's first book, ''A Diplomatic Revolution: Algeria's Fight for Independence and the Origins of the Post-Cold War Era'' (2002, Oxford U. Pr.), examines the international diplomacy of Algerian independence. It is a revisionist account that analyzes the transnational networks through which Algerian statesman struggled for liberation, rather than adopting a traditional focus on the national aspects of the movement. Foreign Affairs magazine observes that "Connelly weaves into his story the changing roles of the United States, Gamal Abdel Nasser's Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia; the ebb and flow of FLN relations with the soviet bloc; and much more". ''A Diplomatic Revolution'' is notable in locating fundamental shifts in international society as occurring during the Algerian independence movement, arguing that "population growth, environmental scarcities, international institutions, new media, and, not least, the conscious agency of colonized peoples were already combining to cause radical change— of a recognizably new kind— when some might assume the international system was frozen into an ideological contest between East and West". The book has also been revised and translated into French as ''L'arme secrète du FLN'': ''Comment de Gaulle a Perdu la Guerre d'Algérie.''

''Fatal Misconception''

''Fatal Misconception: The Struggle to Control World Population'' (2008, Harvard U. Pr.) charts the history of global efforts to control population growth. The book documents the diverse and often disturbing methods used by countries, foundations, and organizations to control populations, particularly in the Global South. Helen Epstein of the New York Review of Books notes that "Though painful to read, atal Misconceptioncontain many valuable lessons for anyone who cares about making development programs work, both technically and politically.” Some reviewers express concern that the book's arguments might be appropriated by contemporary anti-abortion advocates. Nicholas Kristof, in a review for the New York Times, argues that "the family planning movement has corrected itself, and today it saves the lives of women in poor countries and is central to efforts to reduce poverty worldwide. If we allow that past to tarnish today’s efforts by family planning organizations, women in poor countries will be doubly hurt by." Connelly emphasizes the importance of freedom of choice and individual rights in how we justify family planning. In an interview documented in Salon, he asserts that: "it’s important that we make our stand on reproductive rights when we’re arguing for family planning services, and for safe and legal access to abortion." Mahmood Mamdani, a professor of Government at the School of International and Public Affairs, says of ''Fatal Misconception,'' “Connelly raises the most profound political, social, and moral questions. His history reveals that the difference between population control and birth control is indeed that between coercion and choice.”

''The Declassification Engine''

''The Declassification Engine: What History Reveals About America's Top Secrets'' (2023, Pantheon) documents multiple concerns with official secrets in the U.S. These include, "Three major lessons from Pearl Harbor":
# Secrets are often kept to hide incompetence.
# tastrophic attacks almost never come out of nowhere. ... aders prefer to pretend they had no warning. In fact, claiming that an attack is completely unexpected can help legitimate more espionage, domestic surveillance, and military spending.
# r leaders think we can’t handle the truth and wouldn’t support their plans if we knew what they were.

Connelly documents that the Franklin Roosevelt administration wanted to get into the war in Europe before the attack on Pearl Harbor, but the U.S. Congress refused to support it. The Tripartite Pact of 27 September 1940 strengthened the Axis alliance of Germany, Italy, and Japan. The U.S. responded by embargoing first scrap iron and eventually oil exports to Japan. Roosevelt hoped he could "maneuver them into the position of firing the first shot without allowing too much danger to ourselves".

Connelly does ''not'' mention the Gulf of Tonkin incident, but it seems similar to Pearl Harbor: Lyndon Johnson, U.S. president in 1964, was concerned he might lose that year's presidential election from being perceived as soft on Communism. So he worked to provoke an attack. Events in the Gulf of Tonkin on 4 August 1964 were described by the Johnson administration as an "unprovoked attack". That led to a request for Congressional approval of the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, which authorized the subsequent U.S. military actions in Vietnam until Congress finally stopped funding that war, leading to the Fall of Saigon in 1975.

He does mention the War on terror; other sources provide more detail to support Connely's claims regarding the War on Terror.

Part of the problem with the Bay of Pigs, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Vietnam War, and many other national security issues is that the "need to know" requirement of the U.S. system of classified information makes it relatively easy for military and civil servants to be less than forthright and even deceptive with their superiors, including the President.

He also says that the "need to know" requirement often makes it hard for intelligence analysts to get the information they need, and ultimately, "a lot of secret intelligence is not actually secret, and what is secret is often not intelligent". This claim is supported by Tetlock and Gardner (2015), who developed a "Superforecasting" methodology, which they claimed "performed about 30 percent better than the average for intelligence community analysts who could read intercepts and other secret data."

Connelly also claims, "There is nothing more dangerous—both to itself, and to others—than a nuclear-armed superpower that is not even answerable to its own people." He further says, "In some cases, the U.S. military itself has prepared to launch nuclear weapons based on false warnings. We still live in fear of surprise attacks, as shown by the panic created in Hawaii in 2018 after an alarm indicated an imminent missile strike. We should actually be more alarmed by the very real risk that all our preparations for war will result in the United States’ provoking just such an attack, or accidentally launching one of our own.

He claims that prior to the run-up to World War II, the US had prided itself in its "radical transparency", not even encrypting diplomatic communications. He said, "The early republic also fostered a culture of information sharing by delivering newspapers at long distances at little cost through an ever-expanding network of post offices, where they were often displayed for public consumption."

A conclusion that justifies the title is that the ''declassification system'' in the US is woefully underfunded. The US government produces many times more classified documents than can possibly be reviewed with the existing budget. Some records are destroyed or deliberately not written down to make sure they never come to light. This is a major threat to democracy, because citizens can't get the information needed to decide how to modify government policies if important details of how the system has worked in the past are never available to the public.

Part of the problem is that the incentives are wrong: There are rarely any penalties to refusing to declassify something, but one's career can end if someone else with sufficient authority decides you've declassified something that should have been kept secret.

Connelly's solution is to train an artificial intelligence system to manage the declassification process. This recommendation is supported by research by Daniel Kahneman and others. Kahneman and Klein (2009) determined that genuine expertise is usually acquired by learning from frequent, rapid, high quality feedback. Very few professions get the feedback required to develop such expert intuition. Consequently, most exerts can be beaten by simple heuristics developed by intelligent lay people, and artificial intelligence can do even better.

Professional work

Secrecy

Connelly is also the principal investigator at ''History Lab,'' a collective of Columbia University data scientists and historians that apply data-mining techniques to historical documents. ''History Lab'' has aggregated the largest online database of declassified documents anywhere in the world, while developing tools for researchers to explore these documents. The project is also attempting to find a solution to the growing crisis in government declassification. In an article for the ''New York Times,'' Connelly and Richard Immerman observe that "in the late 1990s more than 200 million pages of documents were being declassified each year. Today, that figure has stagnated at around 30 million, despite a huge increase in classified data." ''History Lab'' hopes to develop tools to machine-assist the declassification process. This would improve the efficiency and security of declassification, while also providing academics and researchers more data to understand government policy. ''The New Yorker,'' in an article on the initiative, states that the "researchers hope the project will help illuminate the space between necessary secrets and over-caution."

Awards and honours

*2002 George Louis Beer Prize, ''A Diplomatic Revolution''

References

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Notes

External links

Connelly's Official Page



History Lab Website

{{DEFAULTSORT:Connelly, Matthew
21st-century American historians
21st-century American male writers
Columbia University faculty
1967 births
Living people
Columbia College (New York) alumni
Yale University alumni
American male non-fiction writers