A marginal seat or swing seat is a

constituency An electoral (congressional, legislative, etc.) district, sometimes called a constituency, riding, or ward, is a geographical portion of a political unit, such as a country, state or province, city, or administrative region, created to provi ...

held with a small majority in a

legislative A legislature (, ) is a deliberative assembly with the legal authority to make laws for a political entity such as a country, nation or city on behalf of the people therein. They are often contrasted with the executive and judicial powers ...

election An election is a formal group decision-making process whereby a population chooses an individual or multiple individuals to hold Public administration, public office. Elections have been the usual mechanism by which modern representative d ...

, generally one conducted under a

single-winner voting system A single-member district or constituency is an electoral district represented by a single officeholder. It contrasts with a multi-member district, which is represented by multiple officeholders. In some countries, such as Australia and India, ...

. In Canada, they may be known as target ridings. The opposite is a

safe seat A safe seat is an electoral district which is regarded as fully secure, for either a certain political party, or the incumbent representative personally or a combination of both. With such seats, there is very little chance of a seat changing h ...

. The term ultra-marginal seat refers to a constituency with a majority of single digits, usually within a percentage of 2%. Examples of traditionally marginal seats in the United Kingdom include Broxtowe,

Watford Watford () is a town and non-metropolitan district with Borough status in the United Kingdom, borough status in Hertfordshire, England, northwest of Central London, on the banks of the River Colne, Hertfordshire, River Colne. Initially a smal ...

Bolton West Bolton West is a constituency represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since 2024 by Phil Brickell, a Labour Party politician. Constituency profile The seat is on the outskirts of Greater Manchester with fields making for separ ...

and

Thurrock Thurrock () is a unitary authorities of England, unitary authority area with Borough status in the United Kingdom, borough status in the Ceremonial counties of England, ceremonial county of Essex, England. It lies on the north bank of the River ...

. In Australia, marginal seats include Lindsay in

New South Wales New South Wales (commonly abbreviated as NSW) is a States and territories of Australia, state on the Eastern states of Australia, east coast of :Australia. It borders Queensland to the north, Victoria (state), Victoria to the south, and South ...

Bass Bass or Basses may refer to: Fish * Bass (fish), various saltwater and freshwater species Wood * Bass or basswood, the wood of the tilia americana tree Music * Bass (sound), describing low-frequency sound or one of several instruments in th ...

Tasmania Tasmania (; palawa kani: ''Lutruwita'') is an island States and territories of Australia, state of Australia. It is located to the south of the Mainland Australia, Australian mainland, and is separated from it by the Bass Strait. The sta ...

Longman Longman, also known as Pearson Longman, is a publisher, publishing company founded in 1724 in London, England, which is owned by Pearson PLC. Since 1968, Longman has been used primarily as an imprint by Pearson's Schools business. The Longman ...

Queensland Queensland ( , commonly abbreviated as Qld) is a States and territories of Australia, state in northeastern Australia, and is the second-largest and third-most populous state in Australia. It is bordered by the Northern Territory, South Austr ...

and Corangamite in

Victoria Victoria most commonly refers to: * Queen Victoria (1819–1901), Queen of the United Kingdom and Empress of India * Victoria (state), a state of Australia * Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, a provincial capital * Victoria, Seychelles, the capi ...

. Ultra-marginal seats in Australia include the federal seat of

Gilmore Gilmore or Gillmore may refer to: *Gilmore (surname) Places Australia *Gilmore, Australian Capital Territory, a suburb in the Canberra district of Tuggeranong * Gilmore Avenue, a road in southern Perth, Western Australia *Division of Gilmore, a ...

in New South Wales and the state seats of

Bundaberg Bundaberg () is the major regional city in the Wide Bay-Burnett region of the state of Queensland, Australia. It is the List of cities in Australia by population, ninth largest city in the state. The Bundaberg central business district is situa ...

in Queensland and

Kogarah Kogarah () is a suburb of Southern Sydney, in the state of New South Wales, Australia. Kogarah is located 14 kilometres (9 miles) south-west of the Sydney central business district and is considered to be the centre of the St George area. Loc ...

in New South Wales.

Examples

Australia

The

Australian Electoral Commission The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) is the independent statutory agency of the Australian Government responsible for the management and oversight of Australian federal elections, plebiscites, referendums and some trade union A ...

defines seat margins as follows:

Federal

Following the 2022 federal election, 51 of the 151 seats in the

House of Representatives House of Representatives is the name of legislative bodies in many countries and sub-national entities. In many countries, the House of Representatives is the lower house of a bicameral legislature, with the corresponding upper house often ...

are considered "marginal". The most marginal is the

Division of Gilmore The Division of Gilmore is an Divisions of the Australian House of Representatives, Australian electoral division in the States and territories of Australia, state of New South Wales. It lies on the South Coast (New South Wales), South Coast be ...

in New South Wales, held by the Labor Party on a margin of 0.17% against the

Liberal Party The Liberal Party is any of many political parties around the world. The meaning of ''liberal'' varies around the world, ranging from liberal conservatism on the right to social liberalism on the left. For example, while the political systems ...

. This seat was retained by Labor by just over 300 votes.

New South Wales

Following the 2023 state election, 18 of the 93 seats in the

New South Wales Legislative Assembly The New South Wales Legislative Assembly is the lower of the two houses of the Parliament of New South Wales, an Australian state. The upper house is the New South Wales Legislative Council. Both the Assembly and Council sit at Parliament House ...

are marginal seats. The most marginal is

Ryde Ryde is an English seaside town and civil parish on the north-east coast of the Isle of Wight. The built-up area had a population of 24,096 according to the 2021 Census. Its growth as a seaside resort came after the villages of Upper Ryde and ...

, held by the Liberal Party on a margin of 0.01% against the Labor Party. This seat was won by Jordan Lane by just 50 votes on the first count (and 54 on the recount), successfully succeeding outgoing Liberal MP

Victor Dominello Victor Michael Dominello (born 30 July 1967 in Ryde, New South Wales), is an Australian former politician who was the New South Wales Minister for Customer Service in the second Berejiklian ministry from April 2019, and in the Perrottet mini ...

. It is believed that the seat became marginal due to the Dominello's departure, due to his popularity in the area.

Northern Territory

Following the

2024 general election This is a list of elections that were held in 2024. The National Democratic Institute also maintains a calendar of elections around the world. * 2024 United Nations Security Council election * 2024 national electoral calendar * 2024 local electo ...

, eight of the 25 seats in the

Northern Territory Legislative Assembly The Legislative Assembly of the Northern Territory (also known as the Parliament of the Northern Territory) is the unicameral legislature of Australia’s Northern Territory. The Legislative Assembly has 25 members, each elected in single-member ...

are marginal seats. The most marginal is

Nightcliff Nightcliff is a northern suburb of the city of Darwin, Northern Territory, Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia. It is the traditional country and waterways of the Larrakia people. History Although the origin of the name Nightcliff has alway ...

, held by the Greens on a margin of 0.4% against the Labor Party, who lost the seat by just 36 votes.

Queensland

Following the 2020 state election, 29 of the 93 seats in the

Legislative Assembly of Queensland The Legislative Assembly of Queensland is the sole chamber of the unicameral Parliament of Queensland established under the Constitution of Queensland. Elections are held every four years and are done by full preferential voting. The Assembly ...

are marginal seats. The most marginal is the

, held by the Labor Party on a margin of 0.01% against the Liberal National Party, who lost the seat by just nine votes.

South Australia

Following the 2022 state election, 17 of the 47 seats in the

South Australian Legislative Assembly The House of Assembly (also known as the lower house) is one of two chambers of the Parliament of South Australia, the other being the Legislative Council. It sits in Parliament House in the state capital, Adelaide. Overview The House of Assemb ...

are marginal seats. The most marginal is

Dunstan Dunstan ( – 19 May 988), was an English bishop and Benedictine monk. He was successively Abbot of Glastonbury Abbey, Bishop of Worcester, Bishop of London and Archbishop of Canterbury, later canonised. His work restored monastic life in En ...

, held by the Liberal Party on a margin of 0.8% against the Labor Party. Notably, this seat is held by former Liberal leader

Steven Marshall Steven Spence Marshall (born 21 January 1968) is a former Australian politician who served as the 46th premier of South Australia between 2018 and 2022. He was a member of the South Australian Division of the Liberal Party of Australia in the ...

, who was also the state's

Premier Premier is a title for the head of government in central governments, state governments and local governments of some countries. A second in command to a premier is designated as a deputy premier. A premier will normally be a head of govern ...

until this election.

Victoria

Following the 2022 state election, 28 of the 88 seats in the

Victorian Legislative Assembly The Victorian Legislative Assembly is the states and territories of Australia, state lower house of the bicameral Parliament of Victoria in Australia; the state upper house being the Victorian Legislative Council. Both houses sit at Parliament H ...

are marginal seats. The two most marginal are

and Northcote, both of which are held by the Labor Party on a margin of 0.2% against the Liberal Party and the Greens, respectively.

Western Australia

Following the 2021 state election, just five of the 59 seats in the

Western Australian Legislative Assembly The Western Australian Legislative Assembly, or lower house, is one of the two chambers of the Parliament of Western Australia, an Australian state. The Parliament sits in Parliament House, Perth, Parliament House in the Western Australian capi ...

are marginal seats. The most marginal is Churchlands, held by the Labor Party on a margin of 0.8% against the Liberal Party.

Indonesia

A marginal electoral district is formed when strong, well known candidates had gathered around in a single electoral district.https://news.detik.com/berita/d-4164896/kerasnya-persaingan-dapil-neraka An electoral district in Indonesia possesses a limited amount of seats to be elected as a member of

, forcing each candidates to fight hard against one another disregarding any coalition lines to seek votes. Well known marginal districts include: * Jakarta II electoral district that covers

South Jakarta South Jakarta (; ), abbreviated as Jaksel, is one of the five administrative cities which form the Special Capital Region of Jakarta, Indonesia. South Jakarta is not self-governed and does not have a city council, hence it is not classified as a ...

Central Jakarta Central Jakarta (, ), abbreviated as Jakpus, is one of the five Cities of Indonesia, administrative cities () and ''de facto'' Capital City of the Jakarta, Special Capital Region of Jakarta. It had 902,973 inhabitants according to the 2010 census ...

and overseas voters. It is often contested by well known figures such as

Hidayat Nur Wahid Hidayat Nur Wahid (born 8 April 1960 in Klaten, Central Java) is an Indonesian politician who has been a member of the House of Representatives since 2004. He was the Speaker of Indonesia People's Consultative Assembly (''Majelis Permusyawarata ...

Once Mekel Elfonda Mekel, (born 21 May 1970), better known as Once Mekel (, pronounced ''Ohn-chè''), is an Indonesian singer, researcher, music industry observer, entrepreneur, and politician. He started his career as a singer after completing high school, ...

and Tsamara Amany. * Yogyakarta electoral district which covers the

Special Region of Yogyakarta The Special Region of Yogyakarta is a province-level special region of Indonesia in southern Java. It is a semi-enclave that is surrounded by on the landward side by Central Java Province to the west, north, and east, but has a long coastline ...

with only 8 seats often contested by figures such as Roy Suryo,

Titiek Suharto Siti Hediati Hariyadi (born 14 April 1959), popularly known as Titiek Suharto, is an Indonesian businesswoman and politician. She is the second daughter (and fourth child) of Suharto, the second president of Indonesia. She currently serves as a m ...

, Ahmad Hanafi Rais (son of

Amien Rais Muhammad Amien Rais (born 26 April 1944) is an Indonesian politician and conspiracy theorist. He was one of the leaders of the reform movement that forced the resignation of President Suharto in 1998. Amien Rais was the leader of Muhammadiyah, o ...

) and others. * North Sumatra I electoral district that covers most of

Medan metropolitan area The Greater Medan metropolitan area, known locally as Mebidangro (an acronym of Medan–Binjai–Deli Serdang–Karo) is a metropolitan area in North Sumatra, Indonesia, which consists of Medan City, Binjai City, Deli Serdang Regency and part (4 ...

with 10 seats allocated. This electoral district is often hotly contested with figures such as

Yasonna Laoly Yasonna Hamonangan Laoly (born 27 May 1953) is the former Minister of Law and Human Rights of Indonesia,Ruhut Sitompul,

Meutya Hafid Meutya Viada Hafid (born 3 May 1978 in Bandung, West Java) is an Indonesian newscaster and politician. Since October 2019, she has been Chair of the First Commission of the People's Representative Council, First Commission of the People's Rep ...

, and

Musa Rajekshah Musa Rajekshah (born 1 April 1974), also known as Ijeck, is an Indonesian entrepreneur and politician from the Golkar party who became the Vice Governor of North Sumatra This article lists vice governors of North Sumatra who have assisted the ...

United States

In the United States, examples of congressional districts considered marginal in recent years include

Illinois's 10th congressional district The 10th congressional district of Illinois lies in the northeast corner of the state and mostly comprises northern suburbs of Chicago. It was created after the 1860 census. The district is currently represented by Democrat Brad Schneider. ...

, located in the northern suburbs of

Chicago Chicago is the List of municipalities in Illinois, most populous city in the U.S. state of Illinois and in the Midwestern United States. With a population of 2,746,388, as of the 2020 United States census, 2020 census, it is the List of Unite ...

Texas's 23rd congressional district Texas's 23rd congressional district stretches across the southwestern portion of Texas. It is a majority Hispanic district and has been represented by Republican Party (United States), Republican Tony Gonzales since 2021. The 23rd district ru ...

, covering most of Texas' border with Mexico, and

New Hampshire's 1st congressional district New Hampshire's 1st congressional district covers parts of Southern New Hampshire and the eastern portion of the state. The district contains parts of Hillsborough, Rockingham, Merrimack, Grafton, and Belknap counties; and the entirety of ...

, which includes much of the state's eastern half, including its most populous city

Manchester Manchester () is a city and the metropolitan borough of Greater Manchester, England. It had an estimated population of in . Greater Manchester is the third-most populous metropolitan area in the United Kingdom, with a population of 2.92&nbs ...

. Within the past decade, these three districts are examples of ones that have frequently switched partisan control and seen close races. However, political realignments and

redistricting Redistricting in the United States is the process of drawing electoral district boundaries. For the United States House of Representatives, and state legislatures, redistricting occurs after each ten-year census. The U.S. Constitution in Art ...

may cause traditionally marginal districts to become safe for one party or another. An example of the former is

Indiana's 8th congressional district Indiana's 8th congressional district is a congressional district in the U.S. state of Indiana. Based in Southwestern Indiana, southwest and west central Indiana, the district is anchored in Evansville, Indiana, Evansville and also includes Jasp ...

, which was nicknamed the "Bloody Eighth" for its history of ousting incumbents from both the Democratic and Republican parties. However, as rural white voters, who are a large percentage of the district's population, have become increasingly Republican, it is now considered a safely Republican seat. On the other hand,

North Carolina's 11th congressional district North Carolina's 11th congressional district encompasses most of Western North Carolina. Since January 3, 2023, the congressional district, district has been represented by Chuck Edwards. The 11th district has historically been known for its v ...

is an example of a seat that lost its marginal status due to redistricting. It was formerly a highly competitive seat, albeit with a slight conservative lean, that often changed partisan hands. The Democratic base in the district was the city of

Asheville Asheville ( ) is a city in Buncombe County, North Carolina, United States. Located at the confluence of the French Broad and Swannanoa rivers, it is the county seat of Buncombe County. It is the most populous city in Western North Carolina a ...

, while Republicans were dominant in much of the city's suburbs, and the mountainous rural areas were evenly split between the two parties. However, the Republican-controlled North Carolina legislature redrew the district in 2012 to remove much of Asheville and add conservative territory from the adjacent 10th district, therefore making the district much more difficult to win for three-term incumbent

Heath Shuler Joseph Heath Shuler (born December 31, 1971) is an American former politician and professional football quarterback who served as the U.S. representative for from 2007 to 2013. The district covers the Blue Ridge Mountains in Western North Caro ...

, a conservative Democrat. Indeed, Shuler opted to retire, and Republican

Mark Meadows Mark Randall Meadows (born July 28, 1959) is an American politician who served as the 29th White House chief of staff from 2020 to 2021 under the Trump administration. A member of the Republican Party, he also served as the U.S. representat ...

won the seat easily, subsequently holding it until March 2020 when he resigned to serve as

White House Chief of Staff The White House chief of staff is the head of the Executive Office of the President of the United States, a position in the federal government of the United States. The chief of staff is a Political appointments in the United States, politi ...

. Conversely, seats that were formerly considered safe for one party may become swing seats. For instance,

Orange County, California Orange County (officially the County of Orange; often initialized O.C.) is a county (United States), county located in the Los Angeles metropolitan area in Southern California, United States. As of the 2020 United States census, the population ...

, was traditionally a Republican stronghold, and most of its congressional seats were solidly Republican for decades. However, demographic changes, particularly Democratic strength with Hispanic and Asian voters, have eroded Republican dominance of the county;

Hillary Clinton Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton ( Rodham; born October 26, 1947) is an American politician, lawyer and diplomat. She was the 67th United States secretary of state in the administration of Barack Obama from 2009 to 2013, a U.S. senator represent ...

won it in

2016 2016 was designated as: * International Year of Pulses by the sixty-eighth session of the United Nations General Assembly. * International Year of Global Understanding (IYGU) by the International Council for Science (ICSU), the Internationa ...

, becoming the first Democratic presidential nominee to do so since

Franklin D. Roosevelt Franklin Delano Roosevelt (January 30, 1882April 12, 1945), also known as FDR, was the 32nd president of the United States, serving from 1933 until his death in 1945. He is the longest-serving U.S. president, and the only one to have served ...

1936 Events January–February * January 20 – The Prince of Wales succeeds to the throne of the United Kingdom as King Edward VIII, following the death of his father, George V, at Sandringham House. * January 28 – Death and state funer ...

, while Democrats, for the first time in many years, swept all of its congressional seats in the 2018 midterms. Marginal seats only require a small swing to change hands and therefore are typically the focus of most campaign resources. The concentration of money and human resources in areas where they will make the most difference is known as targeting.

Strategies for securing marginal seats

The creation of policy that will benefit a particular seat, at the expense of other

taxpayer A taxpayer is a person or organization (such as a company) subject to pay a tax. Modern taxpayers may have an identification number, a reference number issued by a government to citizens or firms. The term "taxpayer" generally characterizes o ...

s, is known as

pork barrel ''Pork barrel'', or simply ''pork'', is a metaphor for allocating government spending to localized projects in the representative's district or for securing direct expenditures primarily serving the sole interests of the representative. The u ...

ing. Political parties often face tension between the holders of marginal seats and

s. Safe seats tend to be allocated far less discretionary resources—governmental as well as political—from their political party than do marginal seats. A similar phenomenon happens in

United States presidential election The election of the president of the United States, president and Vice President of the United States, vice president of the United States is an indirect election in which citizens of the United States who are Voter registration in the United ...

s, where the

Electoral College An electoral college is a body whose task is to elect a candidate to a particular office. It is mostly used in the political context for a constitutional body that appoints the head of state or government, and sometimes the upper parliament ...

system means that candidates must win states rather than the popular vote. Again, resources are concentrated towards the

swing state In United States politics, a swing state (also known as battleground state, toss-up state, or purple state) is any state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican candidate in a statewide election, most often refe ...

s with the smallest majorities.

References

{{Portalbar, Politics Elections Political science terminology

Examples

Australia

Federal

New South Wales

Northern Territory

Queensland

South Australia

Victoria

Western Australia

Indonesia

United States

Strategies for securing marginal seats

See also

References