Les Roberts (epidemiologist)
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Les Roberts (born 1961) is an American
epidemiologist Epidemiology is the study and analysis of the distribution (who, when, and where), patterns and determinants of health and disease conditions in a defined population, and application of this knowledge to prevent diseases. It is a cornerstone ...
. He was the first winner of the
Centers for Disease Control The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is the national public health agency of the United States. It is a United States federal agency under the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), and is headquartered in Atlanta, ...
's Paul C. Schnitker Award for contributions to global health. He became prominent in the news just before the
2004 U.S. presidential election Presidential elections were held in the United States on November 2, 2004. Incumbent Republican President George W. Bush and his running mate, incumbent Vice President Dick Cheney, were re-elected to a second term. They narrowly defeated ...
for his study estimating that 100,000 Iraqi civilians had been killed in the
Iraq war The Iraq War (), also referred to as the Second Gulf War, was a prolonged conflict in Iraq lasting from 2003 to 2011. It began with 2003 invasion of Iraq, the invasion by a Multi-National Force – Iraq, United States-led coalition, which ...
at a time when official U.S. government counts were much lower. When a 2006 follow-up study confirmed the report, U.S. President
George W. Bush George Walker Bush (born July 6, 1946) is an American politician and businessman who was the 43rd president of the United States from 2001 to 2009. A member of the Bush family and the Republican Party (United States), Republican Party, he i ...
dismissed it, saying the approach had been "pretty well discredited", without explaining how."Critics say 600,000 Iraqi dead doesn't tally. Pollsters defend methods used in Johns Hopkins study"
By Anna Badkhen. ''
San Francisco Chronicle The ''San Francisco Chronicle'' is a newspaper serving primarily the San Francisco Bay Area of Northern California. It was founded in 1865 as ''The Daily Dramatic Chronicle'' by teenage brothers Charles de Young and M. H. de Young, Michael H. ...
.'' Oct. 12, 2006.


Career

Roberts grew up in Onondaga, New York and graduated from Westhill Senior High School in 1979. He obtained an undergraduate degree in physics at St. Lawrence University in 1983 and a master's degree in public health from
Tulane University The Tulane University of Louisiana (commonly referred to as Tulane University) is a private research university in New Orleans, Louisiana, United States. Founded as the Medical College of Louisiana in 1834 by a cohort of medical doctors, it b ...
in 1986. He did post-graduate fellowship work with the
Centers for Disease Control The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is the national public health agency of the United States. It is a United States federal agency under the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), and is headquartered in Atlanta, ...
in Atlanta and obtained a Ph.D. in environmental engineering from
Johns Hopkins University The Johns Hopkins University (often abbreviated as Johns Hopkins, Hopkins, or JHU) is a private university, private research university in Baltimore, Maryland, United States. Founded in 1876 based on the European research institution model, J ...
in 1992; he has been a regular lecturer there ever since. He is now an Associate Clinical Professor of
Population Population is a set of humans or other organisms in a given region or area. Governments conduct a census to quantify the resident population size within a given jurisdiction. The term is also applied to non-human animals, microorganisms, and pl ...
and Family Health at
Columbia University Columbia University in the City of New York, commonly referred to as Columbia University, is a Private university, private Ivy League research university in New York City. Established in 1754 as King's College on the grounds of Trinity Churc ...
's Mailman School of Public Health. Roberts' first important contribution came from a study among refugees in
Malawi Malawi, officially the Republic of Malawi, is a landlocked country in Southeastern Africa. It is bordered by Zambia to the west, Tanzania to the north and northeast, and Mozambique to the east, south, and southwest. Malawi spans over and ...
conducted for the United Nations regarding the effects of narrow-necked water containers that showed most water contamination came from the hands of refugees. Since that study, narrow-necked water containers have become a standard component of humanitarian relief programs. Roberts was Director of Health Policy at the
International Rescue Committee The International Rescue Committee (IRC) is a global humanitarian aid, relief, and development nongovernmental organization. Founded in 1933 as the International Relief Association, at the request of Albert Einstein, and changing its name in 1 ...
. In 1994 he worked in
Rwanda Rwanda, officially the Republic of Rwanda, is a landlocked country in the Great Rift Valley of East Africa, where the African Great Lakes region and Southeast Africa converge. Located a few degrees south of the Equator, Rwanda is bordered by ...
for the
World Health Organization The World Health Organization (WHO) is a list of specialized agencies of the United Nations, specialized agency of the United Nations which coordinates responses to international public health issues and emergencies. It is headquartered in Gen ...
,Faculty page for Les Roberts
.
Columbia University Columbia University in the City of New York, commonly referred to as Columbia University, is a Private university, private Ivy League research university in New York City. Established in 1754 as King's College on the grounds of Trinity Churc ...
's Mailman School of Public Health.
and performed a similar study to estimate the number of Rwandan refugees. In 2000, he performed a similar study which estimated 1.7 million deaths due to the war in the
Democratic Republic of Congo The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), also known as the DR Congo, Congo-Kinshasa, or simply the Congo (the last ambiguously also referring to the neighbouring Republic of the Congo), is a country in Central Africa. By land area, it is t ...
. This study was cited in a U.N. Security Council resolution that all foreign armies must leave Congo, a
United Nations The United Nations (UN) is the Earth, global intergovernmental organization established by the signing of the Charter of the United Nations, UN Charter on 26 June 1945 with the stated purpose of maintaining international peace and internationa ...
request for $140 million in aid, and a pledge by the
US State Department The United States Department of State (DOS), or simply the State Department, is an executive department of the U.S. federal government responsible for the country's foreign policy and relations. Equivalent to the ministry of foreign affairs o ...
for an additional $10 million in aid.


Surveys of Iraqi Casualties


2004 Study

In 2004 Roberts was the lead investigator in the field and lead author of a study, co-authored with four others, titled "Mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: cluster sample survey," published in ''
The Lancet ''The Lancet'' is a weekly peer-reviewed general medical journal, founded in England in 1823. It is one of the world's highest-impact academic journals and also one of the oldest medical journals still in publication. The journal publishes ...
.'' In the study, he estimated that 100,000 Iraqi civilians had been killed in the
Iraq war The Iraq War (), also referred to as the Second Gulf War, was a prolonged conflict in Iraq lasting from 2003 to 2011. It began with 2003 invasion of Iraq, the invasion by a Multi-National Force – Iraq, United States-led coalition, which ...
at a time when official U.S. government estimates were much lower. . By Les Roberts, Riyadh Lafta, Richard Garfield, Jamal Khudhairi, and Gilbert Burnham. ''
The Lancet ''The Lancet'' is a weekly peer-reviewed general medical journal, founded in England in 1823. It is one of the world's highest-impact academic journals and also one of the oldest medical journals still in publication. The journal publishes ...
'', 29 October 2004. There is a version of the PDF article that has a clickable table of contents. It is here: .
In opposition to the study's claims, an official Ministerial Statement from the United Kingdom Parliament stated that "the Government do not accept its he Lancet study'scentral conclusion", noting that the Iraq Ministry of Health figures, which were collected from daily hospital reports, showed 3,853 civilian deaths and 15,517 injuries between April 5, 2004 and October 5, 2004.


2006 Study

In October 2006 Roberts instigated a second study, Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: a cross-sectional cluster sample survey, using similar methods and increasing the number of households surveyed. The study was also published in The Lancet, and reported:
"We estimate that between March 18, 2003, and June, 2006, an additional 654,965 (392,979–942,636) Iraqis have died above what would have been expected on the basis of the pre-invasion crude mortality rate as a consequence of the coalition invasion. Of these deaths, we estimate that 601,027 (426,369–793,663) were due to violence." . By Gilbert Burnham, Riyadh Lafta, Shannon Doocy, and Les Roberts. ''
The Lancet ''The Lancet'' is a weekly peer-reviewed general medical journal, founded in England in 1823. It is one of the world's highest-impact academic journals and also one of the oldest medical journals still in publication. The journal publishes ...
,'' October 11, 2006
These figures would be equivalent to 2.5% of the total Iraqi population dying since the start of the war.Iraqi deaths survey 'was robust'
BBC News BBC News is an operational business division of the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) responsible for the gathering and broadcasting of news and current affairs in the UK and around the world. The department is the world's largest broad ...
, 26 March 2007.
This second study drew criticism from a number of sources. Members of the Iraqi government, the Iraq Body Count Project,"Reality checks: some responses to the latest Lancet estimates"
By Hamit Dardagan, John Sloboda, and Josh Dougherty. Iraq Body Count project. October 16, 2006.
and a number of other researchers all disputed the estimated figures from 2006.


Politics

Roberts campaigned for office in 2006, running in the Democratic primary for the U.S. House of Representatives seat of the 24th
Congressional District Congressional districts, also known as electoral districts in other nations, are divisions of a larger administrative region that represent the population of a region in the larger congressional body. Countries with congressional districts includ ...
in
Chenango County, New York Chenango County is a County (United States), county located in the south-central section of the U.S. state of New York (state), New York. As of the 2020 United States census, 2020 census, the population was 47,220. Its county seat is Norwich, ...
. He withdrew from the running on May 17 and endorsed Michael Arcuri, who was later elected.


References


External links


Les Roberts' personal account of his mission in the Congo, from CNN"Counting the dead in Iraq"
Interview with Les Roberts. '' Socialist Worker'' (UK), 23 April 2005.
"Q&A: Les Roberts"
By Matthew Chavez. January 30, 2008. '' The Daily Lobo'' (daily campus newspaper of
University of New Mexico The University of New Mexico (UNM; ) is a public research university in Albuquerque, New Mexico, United States. Founded in 1889 by the New Mexico Territorial Legislature, it is the state's second oldest university, a flagship university in th ...
).

By Judith A. Weinstein. March 16, 2008. Chicago Tribune. {{DEFAULTSORT:Roberts, Les American epidemiologists 1961 births Living people Columbia University faculty St. Lawrence University alumni Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine alumni Johns Hopkins University alumni