Larry Joseph Sabato (; born August 7, 1952) is an American
political scientist
Political science is the scientific study of politics. It is a social science dealing with systems of governance and Power (social and political), power, and the analysis of political activities, political philosophy, political thought, polit ...
and
political analyst. He is the
Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the
University of Virginia
The University of Virginia (UVA) is a Public university#United States, public research university in Charlottesville, Virginia, United States. It was founded in 1819 by Thomas Jefferson and contains his The Lawn, Academical Village, a World H ...
, where he is also the founder and director of the
Center for Politics, which works to promote civic engagement and participation. The Center for Politics is also responsible for the publication of ''Sabato's Crystal Ball'', an online newsletter and website that provides free political analysis and electoral projections. He is well known in American political media as a popular
pundit
A pundit is a person who offers opinion in an authoritative manner on a particular subject area (typically politics, the social sciences, technology or sport), usually through the mass media. The term pundit describes both women and men, altho ...
, and is interviewed frequently by a variety of sources.
Early life and education
Sabato grew up in
Norfolk, Virginia
Norfolk ( ) is an independent city (United States), independent city in the U.S. state of Virginia. It had a population of 238,005 at the 2020 United States census, 2020 census, making it the List of cities in Virginia, third-most populous city ...
, graduating from
Norfolk Catholic High School in 1970. Sabato is of
Italian heritage. Sabato graduated from the
University of Virginia
The University of Virginia (UVA) is a Public university#United States, public research university in Charlottesville, Virginia, United States. It was founded in 1819 by Thomas Jefferson and contains his The Lawn, Academical Village, a World H ...
in 1974. A 1974 ''
Cavalier Daily'' poll showed more people could identify Sabato as
student government president than could name
Edgar F. Shannon Jr. as University president.
Sabato graduated
Phi Beta Kappa
The Phi Beta Kappa Society () is the oldest academic honor society in the United States. It was founded in 1776 at the College of William & Mary in Virginia. Phi Beta Kappa aims to promote and advocate excellence in the liberal arts and sciences, ...
as a Government major. He followed his undergraduate degree with graduate study at
Princeton University
Princeton University is a private university, private Ivy League research university in Princeton, New Jersey, United States. Founded in 1746 in Elizabeth, New Jersey, Elizabeth as the College of New Jersey, Princeton is the List of Colonial ...
's
Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs for one year. He was awarded a
Rhodes Scholarship
The Rhodes Scholarship is an international postgraduate award for students to study at the University of Oxford in Oxford, United Kingdom. The scholarship is open to people from all backgrounds around the world.
Established in 1902, it is ...
in 1975, which brought him to study at
Queen's College, Oxford
The Queen's College is a constituent college of the University of Oxford, England. The college was founded in 1341 by Robert de Eglesfield in honour of Philippa of Hainault, queen of England. It is distinguished by its predominantly neoclassi ...
. In less than two years he earned his doctorate in politics from Oxford.
Prior to his time as a political analyst, Sabato worked for nine years with Virginia
Democratic Party politician
Henry Howell. At the age of 15, Sabato joined Howell's first campaign for the Virginia governorship in 1968, and then worked on his successful run for lieutenant governor in 1971, and his campaigns for governor in 1973 and 1977.
Professorship
Before becoming an academic at the University of Virginia, Sabato published works on the rise of
two-party politics in the
Southern United States
The Southern United States (sometimes Dixie, also referred to as the Southern States, the American South, the Southland, Dixieland, or simply the South) is List of regions of the United States, census regions defined by the United States Cens ...
, most notably his 1977 publication of ''The Democratic Party Primary in Virginia: Tantamount to Election No Longer''. In 1978, Sabato became a member of the faculty at the University of Virginia. Since then he has engaged in research and taught more than 14,000 students.
He is a University Professor and the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia.
In 2005, Sabato made a $1 million contribution to UVA, the largest gift ever given by a faculty member.
Author
Sabato is the author of over twenty books on politics, including ''Feeding Frenzy: Attack Journalism and American Politics'' and ''The Rise of Political Consultants: New Ways of Winning Elections.'' He is the co-author of ''Dirty Little Secrets: The Persistence of Corruption in American Politics'' with
Glenn R. Simpson. In January 2011, he published ''Pendulum Swing'', which analyzed the
2010 midterm elections and the potential effect of
Republican Party victories on the 2012 presidential, congressional, and state-level elections.
Prior to ''Pendulum Swing'', Sabato authored ''The Year of Obama'' in 2009 and ''
A More Perfect Constitution'' in 2007, which discussed his ideas for amending the
U.S. Constitution. Other Sabato books include ''The Sixth Year Itch: The Rise and Fall of the George W. Bush Presidency'', ''Divided States of America: The Slash and Burn Politics of the 2004 Presidential Election'', and ''Get in the Booth! A Citizen's Guide to the 2004 Election'', and writes for ''Sabato's Crystal Ball''. He has written textbooks used by high school and college
American government classes, and has been a frequent guest analyst on cable news outlets and radio programs.
Investigation of Kennedy assassination
His book about
John F. Kennedy, ''The Kennedy Half-Century: The Presidency, Assassination, and Lasting Legacy of John F. Kennedy,'' was published in 2013. It focuses on Kennedy's life, administration, and
assassination
Assassination is the willful killing, by a sudden, secret, or planned attack, of a personespecially if prominent or important. It may be prompted by political, ideological, religious, financial, or military motives.
Assassinations are orde ...
, and contains research from focus groups, polling, and interviews with colleagues and eyewitnesses. After analyzing evidence regarding the assassination, Sabato discredited the 1979
United States House Select Committee on Assassinations
The United States House of Representatives Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) was established on September 15, 1976 by U.S. House Resolution 1540 to investigate the assassinations of John F. Kennedy and Martin Luther King Jr. in 1963 a ...
(HSCA) conclusion of a possible second shooter, stating that it was "blown out the water".
''Sabato's Crystal Ball''

''Sabato's Crystal Ball'' is run by the
University of Virginia Center for Politics
The University of Virginia Center for Politics (CfP) is a nonpartisan institute at the University of Virginia. Based in Charlottesville, Virginia, the institute promotes the value of politics and the importance of civic engagement. It operates o ...
in Charlottesville. The site contains analysis of an array of political races in the United States, including presidential elections, Senate, House, and gubernatorial contests.
Predictions accuracy
Prior to the 2002 midterm elections, where the Republican Party saw gains in both branches of Congress, ''Sabato's Crystal Ball'' website accurately predicted the outcome in 433 of the 435 contests for the
House of Representatives
House of Representatives is the name of legislative bodies in many countries and sub-national entities. In many countries, the House of Representatives is the lower house of a bicameral legislature, with the corresponding upper house often ...
and 32 of 34
Senate
A senate is a deliberative assembly, often the upper house or chamber of a bicameral legislature. The name comes from the ancient Roman Senate (Latin: ''Senatus''), so-called as an assembly of the senior (Latin: ''senex'' meaning "the el ...
races.
In 2004, when Republicans retained the
White House
The White House is the official residence and workplace of the president of the United States. Located at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue Northwest (Washington, D.C.), NW in Washington, D.C., it has served as the residence of every U.S. president ...
and gained seats in the House and Senate, ''Crystal Ball'' correctly predicted the outcome of 525 of the 530 political races (99% accuracy), missing only one House race, one Senate race, one governor's race, and two states in the
Electoral College
An electoral college is a body whose task is to elect a candidate to a particular office. It is mostly used in the political context for a constitutional body that appoints the head of state or government, and sometimes the upper parliament ...
.
In August 2006, ''Crystal Ball'' predicted that the
Democrats would gain 29 seats in the House of Representatives and 6 seats in the Senate, providing them with a majority in both chambers. Sabato's predictions proved correct: each of his 33 Senate predictions were accurate, and in the House, Democrats gained 29 seats on election night, the precise total predicted by ''Crystal Ball'' (Democrats went on to pick up a 30th seat in the December 12, 2006, runoff in Texas' 23rd district).
In 2006, Sabato was named the most accurate source of election predictions by MSNBC, CNBC, and Pew's Project for Excellence in Journalism. He was also the only national analyst who correctly predicted the exact Democratic gains in Senate and House contests.
In July 2008, ''Crystal Ball'' correctly projected that
Barack Obama
Barack Hussein Obama II (born August 4, 1961) is an American politician who was the 44th president of the United States from 2009 to 2017. A member of the Democratic Party, he was the first African American president in American history. O ...
would win the presidency in a near-landslide.
Sabato predicted a 364–174 margin in the Electoral College, as well as the popular vote percentages.
The prediction was merely one point off the mark, with the actual result on November 4, 2008, being Obama 365 to McCain 173. It did not predict an Obama win in
Nebraska's 2nd district, as he did not make separate predictions for individual congressional districts in states that split their electoral votes on such factors (he started making separate predictions for such districts in 2012, probably because of this occurrence). ''Crystal Ball'' also accurately predicted 34 of all 35 Senate races, and 11 gubernatorial races correctly.
In November 2010, ''Crystal Ball'' projected that Republicans would pick up 55 seats in the House of Representatives. The Republicans picked up 63 House seats. It predicted a pickup of 8 seats in the Senate for Republicans. The Republicans picked up 6 Senate seats. In 2012, Crystal Ball projected that Obama would win the presidency with 290 electoral votes to 248 for Romney; there would be no change in partisan makeup of the Senate, with Democrats at 53 and Republicans at 47; and Democrats would pick up 3 seats in the House of Representatives, for a result of 239 Republicans and 196 Democrats. The projection was similar to the actual results but ''Crystal Ball'' underestimated Obama's number of
electoral votes (332) and underestimated Democratic victories in both
the Senate (Democrats picked up two seats) and in
the House (Democrats picked up eight seats).
''Crystal Ball'' made widespread incorrect predictions in 2016, wrongly predicting the outcome of the presidential race, as well as the outcomes of the House and Senate races. The night before voting took place, Sabato appeared on MSNBC and stated that
Hillary Clinton
Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton ( Rodham; born October 26, 1947) is an American politician, lawyer and diplomat. She was the 67th United States secretary of state in the administration of Barack Obama from 2009 to 2013, a U.S. senator represent ...
would win 322 and
Donald Trump
Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who is the 47th president of the United States. A member of the Republican Party (United States), Republican Party, he served as the 45 ...
would win 216 electoral college votes; in fact, Trump won 306 and Clinton won 232. Sabato and his staff summarized the results in an article entitled "Mea Culpa, Mea Culpa, Mea Maxima Culpa". ''Crystal Ball''s predictions were more accurate in 2020. ''Crystal Ball'' predicted
Joe Biden
Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. (born November 20, 1942) is an American politician who was the 46th president of the United States from 2021 to 2025. A member of the Democratic Party (United States), Democratic Party, he served as the 47th vice p ...
would win the presidency with 321 electoral votes to Trump's 217. Biden ended up winning 306 to Trump's 232, with North Carolina (15 electoral votes) being ''Crystal Ball''s only incorrectly predicted state. In the Senate, ''Crystal Ball'' correctly predicted Democrats would regain control, although they predicted flips in Maine and North Carolina which did not materialize.
''Crystal Ball'' predicted
Kamala Harris
Kamala Devi Harris ( ; born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who served as the 49th vice president of the United States from 2021 to 2025 under President Joe Biden. She is the first female, first African American, and ...
would defeat Donald Trump in the
2024 presidential election, 276–262 in the Electoral College. This forecast was posted one day before the election with an acknowledgment by ''Crystal Ball'' that close polling made a forecast difficult to create. Trump defeated Harris 312–226 in the Electoral College.
Earmark controversy
In June 2009, it was revealed that Sabato's
Center for Politics had been the recipient of over $7 million in earmarked money from Congressman
Virgil Goode
Virgil Hamlin Goode Jr. ( born October 17, 1946) is an American politician who served as a member of the United States House of Representatives from 5th congressional district of Virginia from 1997 to 2009. He was initially a Democrat, but beca ...
, whom Sabato predicted would win re-election in 2008, despite declining poll numbers; Goode ultimately lost the race by fewer than 800 votes out of about 316,000 votes cast.
Political blogger Greg Sargent suggested that Sabato should have revealed his Center's financial connection to Goode or recused himself from making predictions about the race.
Personal views
Criticism of Donald Trump
Sabato is a critic of United States President
Donald Trump
Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who is the 47th president of the United States. A member of the Republican Party (United States), Republican Party, he served as the 45 ...
, stating he believed that Trump's presidency was the "worst" in U.S. history.
In July 2021, the
Republican Party of Virginia made headlines for demanding Sabato, as Director of the non-partisan Center of American Politics at the Public University, be investigated by the University of Virginia for his "bitter partisanship" in the form of anti-Trump tweets, stating "in order to have faith in our institutions, it is essential that Virginians hold accountable those public employees and officials who violate institutional values, codes of conduct, and other guidelines of professional behavior."
References
External links
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{{DEFAULTSORT:Sabato, Larry
1952 births
Living people
20th-century American male writers
20th-century American non-fiction writers
21st-century American male writers
21st-century American non-fiction writers
Alumni of the Queen's College, Oxford
American Rhodes Scholars
American male non-fiction writers
American textbook writers
American writers of Italian descent
Princeton School of Public and International Affairs alumni
University of Virginia alumni
University of Virginia faculty
Writers from Norfolk, Virginia
20th-century American political scientists
21st-century American political scientists