The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID model (IHME model), also called the " Chris Murray model" after the IHME director, is an epidemiological model for

COVID-19 pandemic The COVID-19 pandemic (also known as the coronavirus pandemic and COVID pandemic), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), began with an disease outbreak, outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, in December ...

developed at the

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is a public health research institute of the University of Washington in Seattle. Its research fields are global health statistics and impact evaluation. IHME is headed by Christopher J.L. ...

at the

University of Washington The University of Washington (UW and informally U-Dub or U Dub) is a public research university in Seattle, Washington, United States. Founded in 1861, the University of Washington is one of the oldest universities on the West Coast of the Uni ...

Seattle Seattle ( ) is the most populous city in the U.S. state of Washington and in the Pacific Northwest region of North America. With a population of 780,995 in 2024, it is the 18th-most populous city in the United States. The city is the cou ...

. In April 2020, the model was called "perhaps the most widely cited coronavirus model" by '' The Colorado Sun'' and "America's most influential coronavirus model" by ''

The Washington Post ''The Washington Post'', locally known as ''The'' ''Post'' and, informally, ''WaPo'' or ''WP'', is an American daily newspaper published in Washington, D.C., the national capital. It is the most widely circulated newspaper in the Washington m ...

''. Its projections were cited during White House briefings in March–April 2020. Critics say the model uses flawed methods and should not guide U.S. policies. For example, an inappropriate distributional assumption resulted in the model predicting Covid fatalities in New York would certainly fall to zero in New York by late Spring, 2020. In late April 2020, the IHME published estimates of when states could relax

social distancing In public health, social distancing, also called physical distancing, (NB. Regula Venske is president of the PEN Centre Germany.) is a set of non-pharmaceutical interventions or measures intended to prevent the spread of a contagious dise ...

measures and begin to reopen their economies in relative safety, using data from the model. __NOTOC__

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COVID-19 resources
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, includes model predictions COVID-19 models {{COVID-19-stub

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