The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID model (IHME model), also called the "
Chris Murray model" after the IHME director, is an
epidemiological model for
COVID-19 pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic, also known as the coronavirus pandemic, is an ongoing global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The novel virus was first identified ...
developed at the
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is a research institute working in the area of global health statistics and impact evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle. The Institute is headed by Christopher J.L. Murray, ...
at the
University of Washington
The University of Washington (UW, simply Washington, or informally U-Dub) is a public research university in Seattle, Washington.
Founded in 1861, Washington is one of the oldest universities on the West Coast; it was established in Seat ...
in
Seattle
Seattle ( ) is a port, seaport city on the West Coast of the United States. It is the county seat, seat of King County, Washington, King County, Washington (state), Washington. With a 2020 population of 737,015, it is the largest city in bo ...
. In April 2020, the model was called "perhaps the most widely cited coronavirus model" by ''
The Colorado Sun
''The Colorado Sun'' is an online news outlet based in Denver, Colorado. It launched on September 10, 2018, to provide long-form, in-depth coverage of news from all around Colorado. It was started with two years of funding from blockchain ventu ...
'' and "America's most influential coronavirus model" by ''
The Washington Post
''The Washington Post'' (also known as the ''Post'' and, informally, ''WaPo'') is an American daily newspaper published in Washington, D.C. It is the most widely circulated newspaper within the Washington metropolitan area and has a large n ...
''. Its projections were cited during White House briefings in March–April 2020.
Critics say the model uses flawed methods and should not guide U.S. policies.
For example, an inappropriate distributional assumption resulted in the model predicting Covid fatalities in New York would certainly fall to zero in New York by late Spring, 2020.
In late April 2020, the IHME published estimates of when states could relax
social distancing
In public health, social distancing, also called physical distancing, (NB. Regula Venske is president of the PEN Centre Germany.) is a set of non-pharmaceutical interventions or measures intended to prevent the spread of a contagious dise ...
measures and begin to reopen their economies in relative safety, using data from the model.
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See also
*
List of COVID-19 simulation models
References
Further reading
*
External links
COVID-19 resources Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, includes model predictions
COVID-19 models
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