Hurricane Danny (2003)

The 2003 Atlantic hurricane season was a very active season with tropical cyclogenesis occurring before and after the official bounds of the season—the first such occurrence since the 1970 season. The season produced 21 tropical cyclones, of which 16 developed into named storms; seven of those attained hurricane status, of which three reached major hurricane status. The strongest hurricane of the season was Hurricane Isabel, which reached Category 5 status on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale northeast of the Lesser Antilles; Isabel later struck North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane, causing $3.6 billion in damage (2003 USD) and a total of 51 deaths across the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States.

Although the bounds of the season are typically from June 1 to November 30, the season began early with the formation of Subtropical Storm Ana on April 20, and it ended relatively late on December 11 with the dissipation of Tropical Storm Peter. In early September, Hurricane Fabian struck Bermuda as a Category 3 hurricane, where it was the worst hurricane since 1926; on the island it caused four deaths and $300 million in damage (2003 USD). Hurricane Juan caused considerable destruction to Nova Scotia, particularly Halifax, as a Category 2 hurricane, the first hurricane of significant strength to hit the province since 1893. Additionally, Hurricanes Claudette and Erika struck Texas and Mexico, respectively, as minimal hurricanes. In December, Tropical Storm Odette struck the Dominican Republic, and Tropical Storm Peter formed in the eastern portion of the basin.

Seasonal forecasts

Pre-season outlook

On May 19, prior to the start of the season, NOAA forecasters issued a 55% probability of above normal activity. The forecasters predicted 11–15 tropical storms, 6–9 of those becoming hurricanes, and 2–4 of those hurricanes reaching at least Category 3 strength on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale. The above normal activity predicted was due to the likelihood of La Niña developing in the season.

Noted hurricane expert Dr. William M. Gray on April 4 predicted twelve named storms, with eight reaching hurricane strength and three of the eight reaching Category 3 strength. The prediction issued on May 30 was similar, increasing the named storms to fourteen. The synoptic pattern of the season prior to June 1 resembled other previous seasons, with the 1952, 1954, 1964, 1966, and 1998 seasons considered the best analogs for the season. The prediction also included a 68% probability for a hurricane landfall along the United States.

Mid-season outlook

On August 6, Dr. Gray announced he had maintained his previous prediction; with an active start of the season, the rest of the season was forecast to have been only slightly above average, due to an anticipated overall less favorable environment across the Atlantic Ocean. A day later, NOAA released an updated prediction as well, with a 60% probability of above normal activity, with 12–15 named storms, 7–9 hurricanes, and 3–4 major hurricanes expected.

A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 6–14 tropical storms, 4–8 of which reach hurricane strength, and 1–3 of those reaching Category 3 strength.

Seasonal summary

The official beginning of the season was on June 1, 2003, though Subtropical Storm Ana formed on April 20, well before the start to the season. Starting at the official start of the season, the National Hurricane Center began issuing five-day forecasts, extending from the three-day forecasts issued since 1964. Officials conducted tests during the previous two seasons, indicating the new five-day forecasts would be as accurate as the three-day forecasts were 15 years earlier. The tropics were active and well ahead of climatology in the early portion of the season, with the seventh tropical depression forming by the end of July. The season officially ended on November 30, 2003, although tropical storms Odette and Peter developed in early December.

The season is one of only six with a storm before and after the official bounds of the season; the others are 1887, 1951, 1953, 1954, 1970 and 2007. When Tropical Storm Peter formed on December 7, the season became the second on record with two December storms. The 235 days between the development of the first storm, Tropical Storm Ana, and the dissipation of the last storm, Peter, made the 2003 season the longest season since 1952.

Overall, the season's activity was reflected with a high cumulative accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) rating of 176. ACE is, broadly speaking, a measure of the power of the hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed, so storms that last a long time, as well as particularly strong hurricanes, like Isabel and Fabian, have high ACEs. ACE is only calculated for full advisories on tropical systems at or exceeding 34 knots ( or tropical storm strength. Subtropical cyclones are excluded from the total.

No cyclones in the season had a significant impact on South America or Central America. However, a total of eight tropical cyclones made landfall on Mexico from either the Atlantic or the Pacific Ocean, which was the greatest total since the record of nine in 1971. A total of seven deaths occurred in Mexico from Atlantic hurricanes. Much of the Caribbean did not receive significant impact from tropical cyclones during the season.

Six tropical cyclones made landfall along the coast of the United States during the season, including two hurricanes. The first, Claudette, caused locally heavy damage in southeastern Texas in July; two deaths were reported in the state, while earlier in its duration it caused an indirect death from rough waves in Florida. In September, Hurricane Isabel caused deaths and damage from North Carolina through southern Canada. The worst damage from the hurricane occurred in Virginia, where it was the costliest disaster in the history of the state; there, damage totaled over $1.85 billion (2003 USD), and there were 32 fatalities, ten of which were caused directly by the hurricane. Hurricane Isabel caused deaths in seven states and one Canadian province, and about 6 million people were left without power as a result of the storm.

Several cyclones impacted Bermuda during the season, most significantly Hurricane Fabian. On the island, its passage proved to be the costliest and resulted in the first death since a hurricane in 1926. The hurricane killed four on the island when its strong waves and storm surge washed two cars off the causeway between St. George's Parish and St. David's Island. Damage from the hurricane totaled $300 million (2003 USD). Elsewhere, Hurricane Juan was considered among the most damaging in the history of Halifax, Nova Scotia, where strong winds downed thousands of trees and left low-lying areas flooded from a record storm surge to the city. The hurricane caused a total of eight deaths and damage estimated at $200 million (2003 CAD, $150 million 2003 USD).

Systems

Tropical Storm Ana

A non-tropical low-pressure area developed about south-southwest of Bermuda on April 18 through the interaction of an upper-level trough and a surface frontal trough. It tracked northwestward at first, then turned to the southeast. After developing centralized convection, the system developed into Subtropical Storm Ana on April 20 to the west of Bermuda. It tracked east-southeastward and organized, and on April 21 it transitioned into a tropical cyclone with peak winds of , after developing an upper-level warm core. Increased wind shear caused fluctuations in intensity and a steady weakening trend, and on April 24 the center of Ana merged with an approaching cold front, thus signaling the completion of extratropical transition. The extratropical remnants continued east-northeastward, and on April 27 the gale was absorbed within the cold front.

The cyclone is most notable for being the only Atlantic tropical cyclone in the month of April, until Tropical Storm Arlene in 2017. When Ana became a subtropical storm, it became the second subtropical cyclone on record in the month, after a storm in 1992. Ana dropped of rainfall in Bermuda over a period of several days. Increased swells from the storm caused two drowning deaths in southeastern Florida when a boat capsized. The remnants of the storm brought light rainfall to the Azores and the United Kingdom, though no significant damage was reported.

Tropical Depression Two

A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on June 6. Tracking westward at a low latitude, a disturbance along the wave axis became better organized on June 9, with reasonable favorable environmental conditions for that time of year. Initially lacking a well-defined low-level circulation, convection increased markedly on June 10. The system was declared Tropical Depression Two early on June 11 in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The depression was at the time the third tropical cyclone on record to develop in the month of June to the east of the Lesser Antilles; the others were Tropical Depression Two in 2000, Ana in 1979, and a storm in 1933. The next such system to accomplish this would be Bret in 2017.

Initially, the depression was forecast to attain tropical storm status, maintaining good outflow and some banding features around the system. Around 09:00 UTC on June 11, satellite-based intensity estimates indicated the depression was near tropical storm status. However, the convection subsequently diminished and became displaced to the northeast of the center, and late on June 11 the depression degenerated into an open tropical wave about east-southeast of Barbados. The tropical wave remained well defined with a well-defined low-level vorticity, though strong wind shear prevented tropical redevelopment. On June 13 its remnants passed through the Windward Islands and subsequently entered the Caribbean.

Tropical Storm Bill

Tropical Storm Bill developed from a tropical wave on June 29 to the north of the Yucatán Peninsula. It slowly organized as it moved northward, and reached a peak of shortly before making landfall west of Chauvin, Louisiana. Bill quickly weakened over land, and as it accelerated to the northeast, moisture from the storm, combined with cold air from an approaching cold front, produced an outbreak of 34 tornadoes. Bill became extratropical on July 2, and was absorbed by the cold front later that day.

Upon making landfall on Louisiana, the storm produced a moderate storm surge, causing tidal flooding. In a city in the northeastern portion of the state, the surge breached a levee, which flooded many homes in the town. Moderate winds combined with wet soil knocked down trees, which then hit a few houses and power lines, and left hundreds of thousands without electric power. Further inland, tornadoes from the storm produced localized moderate damage. Throughout its path, Tropical Storm Bill caused around $50 million in damage (2003 USD) and four deaths.

Hurricane Claudette

A well-organized tropical wave tracked quickly through the Lesser Antilles on July 7, producing tropical storm force winds but failing to attain a low-level circulation. After organizing in the Caribbean, it developed into Tropical Storm Claudette to the south of the Dominican Republic on July 8. Its intensity fluctuated over the subsequent days, attaining hurricane status briefly on July 10 before weakening and hitting Puerto Morelos on the Yucatán Peninsula on July 11 as a tropical storm. The storm remained disorganized due to moderate wind shear, though after turning west-northwestward into an area of lighter shear, it re-attained hurricane status on July 15 off the coast of Texas; it intensified quickly and made landfall on Matagorda Island with peak winds of . It slowly weakened after moving ashore, tracking across northern Tamaulipas before dissipating in northwestern Chihuahua.

The precursor cyclone caused light damage in the Lesser Antilles, and waves from the hurricane caused an indirect death off of Florida. Widespread flooding and gusty winds destroyed or severely damaged 412 buildings in southeast Texas, with a further 1,346 buildings suffering lighter impact. The hurricane caused locally severe beach erosion along the coast. High winds downed many trees along the coast, causing one direct and one indirect death. Damage was estimated at $180 million (2003 USD).

Hurricane Danny

A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on July 9. The northern portion of the wave tracked to the west-northwest, and on July 13 an area of convection developed along the wave axis. The system slowly organized, and after a closed low-level circulation developed, the system was classified as Tropical Depression Five about east of Bermuda. It quickly organized, becoming Tropical Storm Danny a day after forming. Tracking around the periphery of an anticyclone, the storm moved northwestward before turning north and later northeastward. Despite being located at a high latitude, Danny continued to strengthen due to unusually warm water temperatures, and on July 19 it attained hurricane status about south of St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador, despite having an unusually high minimum pressure for a storm of its intensity.

Wind shear increased the next day as the hurricane turned eastward, causing a steady weakening trend that was accelerated after crossing into an area of cooler water temperatures. By July 20 the cyclone had turned to the southeast and weakened to tropical depression status, and on July 21 it degenerated into a remnant low-pressure area. The remnants of Danny tracked erratically southwestward before dissipating on July 27 about east of where it originally developed. There were no reports of damages or casualties associated with Danny.

Tropical Depression Six

A tropical wave moved westward off the coast of Africa on July 14. After tracking steadily westward, an area of thunderstorms became more concentrated as its upper-level environment became more favorable, and late on July 19 the National Hurricane Center classified it as Tropical Depression Six while it was located about east of the Lesser Antilles. Upon being classified as a tropical cyclone, the depression maintained two ill-defined hooking bands to its north and south, and was originally forecast to attain hurricane status before passing through the Lesser Antilles. With warm waters and very light wind shear forecast, its environmental conditions met four out of five parameters for rapid intensification. Subsequently, convection diminished as the result of cold air inflow and instability from a disturbance to its southeast.

With a fast forward speed, confirmation of a low-level circulation on July 20 became difficult. Convection increased in curvature on July 21, and several islands in the Lesser Antilles issued tropical storm warnings and watches. After it passed north of Barbados, a Hurricane hunters flight failed to report a closed low-level circulation, and it is estimated the depression degenerated into an open tropical wave late on July 21. The remnants brought a few showers to the Lesser Antilles, and after tracking into the Caribbean redevelopment was prevented by increased wind shear. The northern portion of the wave axis split and developed into Tropical Depression Seven.

Tropical Depression Seven

A tropical wave interacted with an upper-level low to develop an area of deep convection near Hispaniola on July 23. A mid- to lower-level circulation developed within the system at it tracked generally north-northwestward, and based on surface and satellite observations, it is estimated the system developed into Tropical Depression Seven at 1200 UTC on July 25 about east of Daytona Beach, Florida. The system was embedded in an environment characterized by high surface pressures. Tracking through an area of cool water temperatures, as well as unfavorable upper-level winds, the depression failed to achieve winds greater than .

Early on July 26 it moved ashore on St. Catherines Island, Georgia, and after steadily weakening over land it dissipated on July 27. As the storm was never forecast to attain tropical storm status, no tropical storm warnings or watches were issued. However, flood watches were posted for much of Georgia and South Carolina. The depression dropped light to moderate rainfall from Florida to the coast of North Carolina, peaking at in Savannah, Georgia. Mostly, rainfall totals between were common. There were no reports of damage or casualties associated with this depression.

Hurricane Erika

The precursor system to Hurricane Erika was first noted as a non-tropical low on August 9 about east of Bermuda. It tracked quickly southwestward then westward in tandem with an upper-level low, which prevented tropical development. On August 13 an area of convection increased as it passed through the Bahamas, and while crossing Florida a circulation built toward the surface; it is estimated the system developed into Tropical Storm Erika on August 14 about west-southwest of Fort Myers, Florida. A strong ridge caused the storm to continue quickly westward, and the system gradually strengthened and organized. By August 15 its forward motion slowed, allowing the convection to organize into curved rainbands, and late in the day an eye feature began developing. Tropical Storm Erika attained hurricane status at around 1030 UTC as it was moving ashore in northeastern Tamaulipas; operationally it was not classified as a hurricane, due to lack of data. The winds rapidly decreased as it tracked across the mountainous terrain of northeastern Mexico, and early on August 17 the cyclone dissipated.

The hurricane dropped light to moderate rainfall along its path, which caused some flooding; in Montemorelos in Nuevo León, two people died after being swept away by floodwaters. Several mudslides were reported, which left numerous highways blocked or impassable. In southern Texas, the hurricane caused light winds and minor damage, with no reports of deaths or injuries in the United States.

Tropical Depression Nine

A strong tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on August 14, and after tracking steadily westward an area of convection began to become better organized on August 18. After it tracked through the Lesser Antilles, it developed into Tropical Depression Nine on August 21 to the south of Puerto Rico. The depression quickly showed signs of organization, and forecasters predicted the depression to intensify to a strong tropical storm. However, strong southwesterly wind shear unexpectedly became established over the system, and the depression degenerated into a tropical wave late on August 22 to the south of the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic.

The depression caused moderate rainfall in Puerto Rico, where of precipitation were recorded. The flooding from the rainfall entered 10 houses and left some streets impassable. A mudslide was reported in the eastern portion of the island. A river in northeastern Puerto Rico surpassed its banks from flooding, though it returned to normal levels within hours. Damage in Puerto Rico totaled $20,000 (2003 USD$,  USD). The remnants of the depression dropped light to moderate precipitation in the Dominican Republic, which caused flooding and overflowing rivers. More than 100 houses were flooded, and some crop damage was reported. The rainfall was welcome in the country, as conditions were dry in the preceding months. Flooding was also reported in eastern Jamaica, though damage there, if any, is unknown.

Hurricane Fabian

On August 25, a tropical wave emerged off the coast of Africa, and two days later developed enough organized convection to develop into Tropical Depression Ten. Tracking through warm waters and low vertical shear, the depression was named Tropical Storm Fabian on August 28. On August 30, the storm intensified into a hurricane, and it quickly strengthened to attain major hurricane status late that day; on September 1 Fabian reached its peak intensity of . The hurricane turned to the north and gradually weakened before passing west of Bermuda on September 5 with winds of . The cyclone accelerated northeastward into an environment of unfavorable conditions, becoming an extratropical cyclone on September 8; two days later it merged with another extratropical storm between southern Greenland and Iceland.

Strong waves caused extensive damage to the Bermuda coastline, destroying 10 nests of the endangered Bermuda petrel. The storm surge from the hurricane stranded one vehicle with three police officers and another with a resident on the causeway between St. George's Parish and St. David's Island, later washing both vehicles into Castle Harbour; all four were killed. Strong winds left about 25,000 people without power on the island, and also caused severe damage to vegetation. The strong winds damaged or destroyed the roofs of numerous buildings on Bermuda, Damage on the island totaled $300 million (2003 USD). Elsewhere, strong waves from the hurricane killed a surfer in North Carolina and caused three deaths off of Newfoundland when a fishing vessel sank.

Tropical Storm Grace

A strong tropical wave accompanied with a low-pressure system moved off the coast of Africa on August 19. It moved quickly westward, failing to organize significantly, and developed a surface low-pressure area on August 29 in the Gulf of Mexico. Convection continued to organize, and the tropical wave developed into Tropical Depression Eleven on August 30 while located east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas. The depression quickly intensified to become Tropical Storm Grace, though further intensification was limited due to a nearby upper-level low. On August 31, Grace moved ashore on Galveston Island, Texas, and it quickly weakened over land. The storm turned northeastward and was absorbed by a cold front over extreme eastern Oklahoma on September 2.

The storm produced light to moderate precipitation from Texas through the eastern United States, peaking at in eastern Texas. Near where it made landfall, Grace produced flooding of low-lying areas and light beach erosion. In Oklahoma and southern Missouri, the remnants of the storm caused localized flooding. No deaths were reported, and damage was minimal.

Tropical Storm Henri

On August 22, a tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa, and it remained disorganized until reaching the eastern Gulf of Mexico on September 1. A tropical disturbance developed into Tropical Depression Twelve on September 3 about west of Tampa, Florida. It moved eastward and strengthened into Tropical Storm Henri on September 5, and despite strong wind shear it intensified to reach peak winds of later that day. Subsequently, it quickly weakened, and it struck the western Florida coast as a tropical depression. On September 8 it degenerated into a remnant low-pressure area off the coast of North Carolina, and after moving ashore near Cape Hatteras, it crossed the Mid-Atlantic states and dissipated on September 17 over New England.

Henri was responsible for locally heavy rainfall across Florida, but damage was minimal. The remnants of Henri caused heavy precipitation in Delaware and Pennsylvania, causing $19.6 million in damage (2003 USD). In Delaware, the rainfall caused record-breaking river flooding, with part of the Red Clay Creek experiencing a 500-year flood, and the system left 109,000 residents without power in Pennsylvania. The impacts of the storm were severely compounded the following week by Hurricane Isabel across the region.

Hurricane Isabel

A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on September 1, which developed into Tropical Depression Thirteen early on September 6 to the southwest of the Cape Verde islands. It quickly intensified into Tropical Storm Isabel, and it continued to gradually intensify within an area of light wind shear and warm waters. Isabel strengthened to a hurricane on September 7, and the following day it attained major hurricane status. Its intensity fluctuated over the subsequent days as it passed north of the Lesser Antilles, and it attained peak winds of on September 11, a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale. The hurricane oscillated between Category 4 and Category 5 status over the following four days, before weakening due to wind shear. On September 18 Isabel made landfall between Cape Lookout and Ocracoke Island

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