The Great Replacement (french: links=no, Grand Remplacement), also known as replacement theory or great replacement theory, is a white nationalist

far-right Far-right politics, also referred to as the extreme right or right-wing extremism, are political beliefs and actions further to the right of the left–right political spectrum than the standard political right, particularly in terms of being ...

conspiracy theory A conspiracy theory is an explanation for an event or situation that invokes a conspiracy by sinister and powerful groups, often political in motivation, when other explanations are more probable.Additional sources: * * * * The term has a nega ...

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disseminated by French author Renaud Camus. The original theory states that, with the complicity or cooperation of "replacist" elites,
PT29
the ethnic French and white European populations at large are being demographically and culturally replaced with non-white peoples—especially from

Muslim Muslims ( ar, المسلمون, , ) are people who adhere to Islam, a monotheistic religion belonging to the Abrahamic tradition. They consider the Quran, the foundational religious text of Islam, to be the verbatim word of the God of Abrah ...

-majority countries—through mass migration, demographic growth and a drop in the birth rate of white Europeans. Since then, similar claims have been advanced in other national contexts, notably in the United States. Mainstream scholars have dismissed these claims as rooted in a misunderstanding of demographic statistics and premised upon an unscientific, racist worldview. According to the '' Encyclopædia Britannica'', the Great Replacement "has been widely ridiculed for its blatant absurdity." While similar themes have characterized various far-right theories since the late 19th century, the particular term was popularized by Camus in his 2011 book ''Le Grand Remplacement''. The book associates the presence of

Muslims in France Islam in France is a minority faith. Muslims are estimated to represent around 4 to 8 percent of the nation's population and France is estimated to have the largest number of Muslims in the Western world, primarily due to migration from Maghr ...

with danger and destruction of French culture and civilization. Camus and other conspiracy theorists attribute recent demographic changes in Europe to intentional policies advanced by global and liberal elites (the "replacists") from within the

Government of France The Government of France ( French: ''Gouvernement français''), officially the Government of the French Republic (''Gouvernement de la République française'' ), exercises executive power in France. It is composed of the Prime Minister, who ...

, the European Union, or the United Nations; they describe it as a "genocide by substitution". The conspiracy theory found support in Europe, and has also grown popular among anti-migrant and white nationalist movements from other parts of the West; many of their adherents maintain that "immigrants reflocking to predominantly white countries for the precise purpose of rendering the white population a minority within their own land or even causing the extinction of the native population". It aligns with (and is a part of) the larger

white genocide conspiracy theory The white genocide, white extinction, or white replacement conspiracy theory is a white supremacist conspiracy theory which states that there is a deliberate plot, often blamed on Jews, to promote miscegenation, interracial marriage, mass non- ...

except in the strategic replacement of

antisemitic canard Antisemitic tropes, canards, or myths are " sensational reports, misrepresentations, or fabrications" that are defamatory towards Judaism as a religion or defamatory towards Jews as an ethnic or religious group. Since the Middle Ages, such repo ...

s with Islamophobia. This replacement, along with a use of simple catch-all slogans, have been cited as reasons for its broader appeal in a pan-European context, although the concept remains rooted in antisemitism in many white nationalist movements, especially (but not exclusively) in the United States. Although Camus has publicly condemned white nationalist violence, scholars have argued that calls to violence are implicit in his depiction of non-white migrants as an existential threat to white populations., 23m05s. Several far-right terrorists, including the perpetrators of the

2019 Christchurch mosque shootings On 15 March 2019, two consecutive mass shootings occurred in a terrorist attack on two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand. The attacks, carried out by a lone gunman who entered both mosques during Friday prayer, began at the Al Noor Mosque ...

, the

2019 El Paso shooting On August 3, 2019, a mass shooting occurred at a Walmart store in El Paso, Texas, United States. In the terrorist attack, a far-right individual killed 23 people and injured 23 others. The Federal Bureau of Investigation is investigating the sh ...

and the

2022 Buffalo shooting On May 14, 2022, a mass shooting occurred in Buffalo, New York, United States, at a Tops Friendly Markets supermarket in the East Side neighborhood. Ten people, all of whom were Black, were murdered and three were injured. The shooter, identif ...

, have made reference to the "Great Replacement" conspiracy theory. American conservative media personalities, including Tucker Carlson and Laura Ingraham, have espoused ideas of a replacement. Some Republican politicians have endorsed the theory in order to appeal to far-right members of the Republican Party and as a way of signalling their loyalty to Donald Trump.

Background

Renaud Camus developed his conspiracy theory in two books published in 2010 and 2011, in the context of an increase in anti-immigrant rhetoric in public discourse during the previous decade. Europe also experienced an escalation in Islamic terrorist attacks during the 2000s–2010s, and a

migrant crisis Migrant crisis is the intense difficulty, trouble, or danger situation in the receiving state (destination country) due to the movements of large groups of immigrants (displaced people, refugee or asylum seeker) escaping from the conditions (natura ...

that began in 2015, which exacerbated tensions and prepared public opinion for the reception of Camus's conspiracy theory. As the latter depicts a population replacement said to occur in a short time lapse of one or two generations, the migrant crisis was particularly conducive to the spread of Camus's ideas while the terrorist attacks accelerated the construction of immigrants as an existential threat among those who shared such a worldview. Camus's theme of a future demise of European culture and civilization also parallels a " cultural pessimistic" and anti-Islam trend among European intellectuals of the period, illustrated in several best-selling and straightforwardly titled books released during the 2010s: Thilo Sarrazin's ''

Germany Abolishes Itself ''Germany Abolishes Itself: How We're Putting Our Country in Jeopardy'' (German title: ''Deutschland schafft sich ab: Wie wir unser Land aufs Spiel setzen'') is a 2010 book by Thilo Sarrazin. Themes According to John Judis, Sarrazin argued for r ...

'' (2010), Éric Zemmour's ''

The French Suicide ''The French Suicide'' (''Le Suicide français'') is a 2014 essay by French far-right journalist Éric Zemmour. It argues that the French nation state has suffered a gradual decline since the 1970s, which Zemmour mainly attributes to the rise o ...

'' (2014) or Michel Houellebecq's '' Submission'' (2015).

Concept of Renaud Camus

The "Great Replacement" conspiracy theory was developed by French author Renaud Camus, initially in a 2010 book titled ''L'Abécédaire de l'in-nocence'' ("Abecedarium of no-harm"), and the following year in an eponymous book, ''Le Grand Remplacement (introduction au remplacisme global)''. Camus has claimed that the name "came to im almost by chance, perhaps in a more or less unconscious reference to the ''

Grand Dérangement The Expulsion of the Acadians, also known as the Great Upheaval, the Great Expulsion, the Great Deportation, and the Deportation of the Acadians (french: Le Grand Dérangement or ), was the Ethnic cleansing, forced removal, by the British, o ...

'' of the Acadians in the 18th century.", 4m25s. Commenting on the name, he has also declared that his theory was the "implementation in real life" of

Bertolt Brecht Eugen Berthold Friedrich Brecht (10 February 1898 – 14 August 1956), known professionally as Bertolt Brecht, was a German theatre practitioner, playwright, and poet. Coming of age during the Weimar Republic, he had his first successes as a pl ...

's quip from the satirical poem '' Die Lösung'' that the easiest thing to do for a government was to change the people had the people forfeited its confidence. According to Camus, the "Great Replacement" has been nourished by "

industrialisation Industrialisation ( alternatively spelled industrialization) is the period of social and economic change that transforms a human group from an agrarian society into an industrial society. This involves an extensive re-organisation of an econo ...

", " despiritualisation" and "deculturation"; the

materialistic Materialism is the view that the universe consists only of organized matter and energy. Materialism or materialist may also refer to: * Economic materialism, the desire to accumulate material goods * Christian materialism, the combination of Chris ...

society and

globalism Globalism refers to various patterns of meaning beyond the merely international. It is used by political scientists, such as Joseph Nye, to describe "attempts to understand all the interconnections of the modern world—and to highlight patterns ...

having created a "replaceable human, without any national, ethnic or cultural specificity", what he labels "global replacism". Camus claims that "the great replacement does not need a definition," as the term is not, in his views, a "concept" but rather a "phenomenon". In Camus's theory, the indigenous French people ("the replaced") is described as being demographically replaced by non-white populations ("the replacing eoples)—mainly coming from Africa or the Middle East—in a process of "peopling immigration" encouraged by a "replacist power". Camus frequently uses terms and concepts related to the period of Nazi-occupied France (1940–1945). He for instance labels "colonizers" or "Occupiers" people of non-European descent who reside in Europe, and dismisses what he calls the "replacist elites" as "collaborationist". Camus founded in 2017 an organization named the National Council of European Resistance, in a self-evident reference to the World War II National Council of the Resistance (1943–1945). This analogy to the French Resistance against Nazism has been described as an implicit call to hatred, direct action or even violence against what Camus labels the "Occupiers; i.e. the immigrants"., 23m05s. Camus has also compared the Great Replacement and the so-called " genocide by substitution" of the European peoples to the Holocaust.

Claimed influences

Camus cites two influential figures in the epilogue of his 2011 book ''The Great Replacement'': British politician Enoch Powell's apocalyptic vision of future race relations—expressed in his 1968 "Rivers of Blood" speech—and French author Jean Raspail's depiction of the collapse of the West from an overwhelming "tidal wave" of Third World immigration, featured in his 1973 novel '' The Camp of the Saints''. Camus also declared to '' The Spectator'' magazine in 2016 that a key to understanding the "Great Replacement" can be found in his 2002 book ''Du Sens''. In the latter he wrote that the words "France" and "French" equal a natural and physical reality rather than a legal one, in a cratylism similar to Charles Maurras's distinction between the "legal" and the "real country". During the same interview, Camus mentioned that he began to imagine his conspiracy theory back in 1996, during the redaction of a guidebook on the

department Department may refer to: * Departmentalization, division of a larger organization into parts with specific responsibility Government and military *Department (administrative division), a geographical and administrative division within a country, ...

of Hérault, in the South of France: "I suddenly realized that in very old villages ..the population had totally changed too ..this is when I began to write like that."

Similar themes

Despite its own singularities and concepts, the "Great Replacement" is encompassed in a larger and older "white genocide" conspiracy theory, popularized in the US by neo-Nazi David Lane in his 1995 ''White Genocide Manifesto'', where he asserted that governments in Western countries were intending to turn white people into "extinct species". The idea of "replacement" under the guidance of a hostile elite can be further traced back to pre-WWII antisemitic conspiracy theories which posited the existence of a Jewish plot to destroy Europe through miscegenation, especially in Édouard Drumont's

antisemitic Antisemitism (also spelled anti-semitism or anti-Semitism) is hostility to, prejudice towards, or discrimination against Jews. A person who holds such positions is called an antisemite. Antisemitism is considered to be a form of racism. Antis ...

bestseller '' La France juive'' (1886). Commenting on this resemblance, historian

Nicolas Lebourg Nicolas Lebourg (born 1974) is a French historian who specializes on far-right movements in Europe. Biography Born in 1974, Lebourg studied sociology at Aix-Marseille University and history at the University of Perpignan, from which he graduated ...

and political scientist Jean-Yves Camus suggest that Camus's contribution was to replace the antisemitic elements with a clash of civilizations between Muslims and Europeans. Also in the late 19th century, imperialist politicians invoked the ''Péril jaune'' ( Yellow Peril) in their negative comparisons of France's low birth-rate and the high birth-rates of Asian countries. From that claim arose an artificial, cultural fear that immigrant-worker Asians soon would "flood" France. This danger supposedly could be successfully countered only by increased fecundity of French women. Then, France would possess enough soldiers to thwart the eventual flood of immigrants from Asia.

Maurice Barrès Auguste-Maurice Barrès (; 19 August 1862 – 4 December 1923) was a French novelist, journalist and politician. Spending some time in Italy, he became a figure in French literature with the release of his work ''The Cult of the Self'' in 1888. ...

's nationalist writings of that period have also been noted in the ideological genealogy of the "Great Replacement", Barrès contending both in 1889 and in 1900 that a replacement of the native population under the combined effect of immigration and a decline in the birth rate was happening in France. Scholars also highlight a modern similarity to European neo-fascist and neo-Nazi thinkers from the immediate post-war, especially

Maurice Bardèche Maurice Bardèche (1 October 1907 – 30 July 1998) was a French art critic and journalist, better known as one of the leading exponents of neo-fascism in post–World War II Europe. Bardèche was also the brother-in-law of the collaborationist ...

, René Binet and

Gaston-Armand Amaudruz Gaston-Armand "Guy" Amaudruz (21 December 1920 – 7 September 2018) was a Swiss neo-fascist political philosopher and Holocaust denier. Biography Initially a supporter of the Swiss fascist movement of Arthur Fonjallaz, he came to wider attent ...

, and to concepts advanced from the 1960s onward by the French Nouvelle Droite. The associated and more recent conspiracy theory of "

Eurabia Eurabia is a political neologism, a portmanteau of Europe and Arabia, used to describe a far-right, anti-Muslim conspiracy theory, involving globalist entities allegedly led by French and Arab powers, to Islamise and Arabise Europe, thereby weak ...

", published by British author

Bat Ye'or ) , birth_date = , birth_place = Zamalek, Cairo, Egypt , death_date= , death_place= , occupation = Writer , nationality = British , signature= , alma_mater = University College LondonUniversity of Geneva , genre= , notableworks = ''The Decline ...

in her 2005 eponymous book, is often cited as a probable inspiration for Camus's "Great Replacement". Eurabia theory likewise involves globalist entities, that time led by both French and Arab powers, conspiring to Islamize Europe, with Muslims submerging the continent through immigration and higher birth rates. The conspiracy theory also depicts immigrants as invaders or as a

fifth column A fifth column is any group of people who undermine a larger group or nation from within, usually in favor of an enemy group or another nation. According to Harris Mylonas and Scott Radnitz, "fifth columns" are “domestic actors who work to un ...

, invited to the continent by a corrupt political elite. Scholars generally agree that, although he did not father the theme, Camus indeed coined the term "Great Replacement" as a slogan and concept, and eventually led it to its fame in the 2010s.

Analysis

Demographic statistics

While the ethnic demography of France has shifted as a result of post-WWII immigration, scholars have generally dismissed the claims of a "great replacement" as being rooted in an exaggeration of immigration statistics and unscientific, racially prejudiced views. Geographer Landis MacKellar criticized Camus's thesis for assuming "that third- and fourth- generation 'immigrants' are somehow not French." Researchers have variously estimated the Muslim population of France at between 8.8% and 12.5% in 2017, making a "replacement" unlikely according to MacKellar.

Racial connotations

In the words of scholar Andrew Fergus Wilson, whereas the islamophobic Great Replacement theory can be distinguished from the parallel antisemitic

, "they share the same terms of reference and both are ideologically aligned with the so-called '

14 words Fourteen Words (also abbreviated 14 or 14/ 88) is a reference to two slogans originated by David Eden Lane, one of nine founding members of the defunct white separatist insurrectionary terrorist organization The Order. The slogans have served ...

' of David Lane 'We must secure the existence of our people and a future for white children''" In 2021, the

Anti-Defamation League The Anti-Defamation League (ADL), formerly known as the Anti-Defamation League of B'nai B'rith, is an international Jewish non-governmental organization based in the United States specializing in civil rights law. It was founded in late Septe ...

wrote that "since many white supremacists, particularly those in the United States, blame Jews for non-white immigration to the U.S.", the Great Replacement theory has been increasingly associated with antisemitism and conflated with the white genocide conspiracy theory. Scholar

Kathleen Belew Kathleen Belew is an American tenured associate professor of history at Northwestern University, and an international authority on the White supremacy, white-power movement. She is the author of ''Bring the War Home, Bring the War Home: The White ...

has argued that the Great Replacement theory "allows an opportunism in selecting enemies", but "also follows the central motivating logic, which is to protect the thing on the inside .e. the preservation and birth rate of the white race regardless of the enemy on the outside." According to Australian historian

A. Dirk Moses Anthony Dirk Moses (born 1967) is an Australian scholar who researches various aspects of genocide. In 2022 he became the Anne and Bernard Spitzer Professor of Political Science at the City College of New York, after having been the Frank Porter ...

, the great replacement theory is a form of psychological projection in which Europeans—who enacted settler-colonial projects entailing the elimination and replacement of native populations by

settler societies Settler society is a theoretical term in early modern and modern history that describes a common link between modern, predominantly European, attempts to permanently settle in other areas of the world. It is used to distinguish settler colonies fr ...

—fear the reverse may happen to them. In German discourse, Austrian political scientist Rainer Bauböck questioned the conspiracy theorists' use of the terms "population replacement" or "exchange" ("''Bevölkerungsaustausch''"). Using Ruth Wodak's analysis that the slogan needs to be viewed in its historical context, Bauböck has concluded that the conspiracy theory is a reemergence of the Nazi ideology of ''

Umvolkung ''Umvolkung'' () is a term in Nazi ideology used to describe a process of assimilation of members of the German people (the ''Volk'') as a way for them to forget about their language and their origin. As a neologism, it echoes ''Umpolung'', 'pol ...

'' ("ethnicity inversion").

Popularity

The simplicity and use of catch-all slogans in Camus's formulations—"you have one people, and in the space of a generation you have a different people"—as well as his removal of antisemitism from the original neo-Nazi "

white genocide The white genocide, white extinction, or white replacement conspiracy theory is a white supremacist conspiracy theory which states that there is a deliberate plot, often blamed on Jews, to promote miscegenation, interracial marriage, mass non ...

" conspiracy theory, have been cited as conducive to the popularity of the "Great Replacement" in Europe. In a survey led by Ifop in December 2018, 25% of the French subscribed to the conspiracy theory; as well as 46% of the responders who defined themselves as "

Gilets Jaunes The Yellow Vests Protests or Yellow Jackets Protests or Yellow Vests Revolution (french: Mouvement des gilets jaunes, ) are a series of populist, grassroots weekly protests in France that began on 17 November 2018. At first the protestors advoc ...

" (Yellow Vest protesters). In another survey led by Harris Interactive in October 2021, 61% of the French believed that the "Great Replacement" will happen in France; 67% of the respondents were worried about it. The theory has also become influential in far-right and white nationalist circles outside of France. The conspiracy theory has been cited by Canadian far-right political activist Lauren Southern in a YouTube video of the same name released in July 2017. Southern's video had attracted in 2020 more than 686,000 viewers and is credited with helping to popularize the conspiracy theory. Counter-jihad Norwegian blogger Fjordman has also participated in spreading the theory. It has also been promoted by the German edition of '' The Epoch Times'', a far-right Falun Gong-associated newspaper. Prominent right-wing extremist websites such as

Gates of Vienna Gates of Vienna is a far-right blog established in 2003 by Edward S. May and his wife. The website has featured the writings of international anti-Muslim writers such as Fjordman and Paul Weston, and "is a central player in the counter-jihad movem ...

, Politically Incorrect, and have provided a platform for bloggers to diffuse and popularize the theory of the "Great Replacement". Among its main promoters are also a wide-ranging network of loosely connected white nationalist movements, especially the Identitarian movement in Europe, and other groups like PEGIDA in Germany.

Political influence

Europe

France

Much of the European spread of the Great Replacement (french: Grand Remplacement) conspiracy theory rhetoric is due to its prevalence in French national discourse and media. Nationalist

right-wing Right-wing politics describes the range of political ideologies that view certain social orders and hierarchies as inevitable, natural, normal, or desirable, typically supporting this position on the basis of natural law, economics, authorit ...

groups in France have asserted that there is an ongoing "Islamo-substitution" of the indigenous French population, associating the presence of

with potential danger and destruction of French culture and civilization. In 2011,

Marine Le Pen Marion Anne Perrine "Marine" Le Pen (; born 5 August 1968) is a French lawyer and politician who ran for the French presidency in 2012, 2017, and 2022. A member of the National Rally (RN; previously the National Front, FN), she served as its pre ...

evoked the theory, claiming that France's "adversaries" were waging a moral and economic war on the country, apparently "to deliver it to submersion by an organized replacement of our population". In 2013, historian Dominique Venner's suicide in

Notre-Dame de Paris Notre-Dame de Paris (; meaning "Our Lady of Paris"), referred to simply as Notre-Dame, is a medieval Catholic cathedral on the Île de la Cité (an island in the Seine River), in the 4th arrondissement of Paris. The cathedral, dedicated to the ...

, in which he left a note outlining the "crime of the replacement of our people" is reported to have inspired the far-right ''Iliade Institutes main ideological tenet of the Great Replacement. Referring to the conspiracy theory, Marine Le Pen publicly praised Venner, claiming that his "last gesture, eminently political, was to try to awaken the French people". In 2015, Guillaume Faye gave a speech at the

Swedish Army Museum The Swedish Army Museum ( sv, Armémuseum) is a museum of military history located in the district of Östermalm in Stockholm. It reopened in 2002 after a long period of closure, and was awarded the title of the best museum of Stockholm in 2005. ...

in Stockholm, in which he claimed there were three societal things being used against Europeans to carry out a supposed Great Replacement: abortion, homosexuality and immigration. He asserted that Muslims were replacing white people by using birthrates as a demographic weapon. In June 2017, a

BuzzFeed BuzzFeed, Inc. is an American Internet media, news and entertainment company with a focus on digital media. Based in New York City, BuzzFeed was founded in 2006 by Jonah Peretti and John S. Johnson III to focus on tracking viral content. Ken ...

investigation revealed three National Front candidates subscribing to the conspiracy theory ahead of the

legislative elections A general election is a political voting election where generally all or most members of a given political body are chosen. These are usually held for a nation, state, or territory's primary legislative body, and are different from by-elections ( ...

. These included Senator

Stéphane Ravier Stéphane Ravier (; born 4 August 1969) is a French politician and former civil servant who has represented the Bouches-du-Rhône department in the Senate since 2014. A former member of the National Rally who joined Reconquête in 2022, he pre ...

's personal assistant, who claimed the Great Replacement had already started in France. Publishing an image of blonde girl next to the caption "Say no to

", Ravier's aide politically charged the concept further, writing "the National Front or the invasion". Éric Zemmour (52074750076)

By September 2018, in a meeting at

Fréjus Fréjus (; ) is a commune in the Var department in the Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur region in Southeastern France. In 2019, it had a population of 54,458. It neighbours Saint-Raphaël, effectively forming one urban agglomeration. The north of ...

, Marine Le Pen closely echoed Great Replacement rhetoric. Speaking of France, she declared that "never in the history of mankind, have we seen a society that organizes an irreversible submersion" that would eventually cause French society to "disappear by dilution or substitution, its culture and way of life". Former National Assembly delegate Marion Maréchal, who is a junior member of the political

Le Pen family The Le Pen family is a prominent political family of France. Le Pen is a Breton surname meaning "the head", "the chief" or "the peninsula".

National Rally The National Rally (french: Rassemblement National, ; RN), until 2018 known as the National Front (french: link=no, Front National, ; FN), is a Far-right politics, far-rightAbridged list of reliable sources that refer to National Rally as fa ...

's serving president Marine Le Pen, who is the aunt of Maréchal, has been heavily influenced by the Great Replacement. '' FAZ'' newspaper has described the conspiracy theory creator Renaud Camus as Le Pen's "whisperer". In May 2019, National Rally spokesman

Jordan Bardella Jordan Bardella (born 13 September 1995) is a French far-right politician who has been the president of the National Rally (RN) since 2022, previously serving as acting president from September 2021 to November 2022 and as vice-president from 20 ...

was reported to use the conspiracy theory during a televised debate with

Nathalie Loiseau Nathalie Loiseau (born 1 June 1964) is a French politician, diplomat and academic administrator who has served as a Member of European Parliament since 2019. Previously she was director of the École nationale d'administration (ENA) from 2012 t ...

, after he argued that France must "turn off the tap" from the

demographic bomb The concept of demographic threat (or demographic bomb) is a term used in political conversation or demography to refer to population increases from within a minority ethnic or religious group in a given country that is perceived as threatening to t ...

of African immigration into the country. In June 2019, journalist and author Éric Zemmour pushed the concept in comparison to the Kosovo War, claiming "In 1900, there were 90% Serbs and 10% Muslims in Kosovo, in 1990 there were 90% Muslims and 10% Serbs, then there was war and the independence of Kosovo". Zemmour, author of ''

'', has repeatedly described "the progressive replacement, over a few decades, of the historic population of our country by immigrants, the vast majority of them non-European". Later that month, Marion Maréchal joined Zemmour in invoking the Great Replacement in relation to the

Balkan The Balkans ( ), also known as the Balkan Peninsula, is a geographical area in southeastern Europe with various geographical and historical definitions. The region takes its name from the Balkan Mountains that stretch throughout the who ...

region, stating "I do not want my France to become Kosovo" and declared that the changing demographics of France "threatens us" ("nous menace") and that this was increasingly clear. Zemmour ran for President in 2022 and continued to extensively promote the theory during his campaign. He finished in fourth place in the first round of the election, taking 7,07% of the vote.

Austria

Identitäre Bewegung Österreich Identitäre Bewegung Österreich (IBÖ; en, Identitarian Movement Austria) is an Austrian far-right nationalist and Neue Rechte organization. Inspired by the French Bloc identitaire, it belongs to the pan-European Identitarian movement and i ...

(IBÖ), the Austrian branch of the Identitarian movement, promotes this theory, citing a "great exchange" or replacement of the population that supposedly needs to be reversed. In April 2019, Heinz-Christian Strache campaigning for his FPÖ party ahead of the

2019 European Parliament election The 2019 European Parliament election was held between 23 and 26 May 2019, the ninth parliamentary election since the first direct elections in 1979. A total of 751 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) represent more than 512 million peopl ...

endorsed the conspiracy theory. Claiming that "population replacement" in Austria was a real threat, he stated that "We don't want to become a minority in our own country". Compatriot

Martin Sellner Martin Michael Sellner (born 8 January 1989) is a far-right Austrian Neue Rechte, and leader of the Identitäre Bewegung Österreichs (IBÖ, Identitarian Movement of Austria). In March 2018, he was denied entry to, and deported from, the Unite ...

, who also supports the theory, celebrated Strache's political use of the Great Replacement.

Belgium

In September 2018, , an extremist Flemish youth organization, were reported to be endorsing the conspiracy theory. The group, claiming that native populations of Europe were being replaced by migrants; they proposed an end to all immigration, forced deportation of non-whites, and the founding of ethnostates. The following month, VRT detailed how the organization was discussing the Great Replacement on secretive chat channels, and using the conspiracy theory to promote Flemish ethnic identity. In March 2019, Flemish nationalist

Dries Van Langenhove Dries Van Langenhove (born 11 May, 1993) is a Belgium, Belgian Far-right politics, far-right Activism#Political activism, political activist and former politician. Van Langenhove is the founder and leader of the far-right Flemish Movement, Flemi ...

of the Vlaams Belang party repeatedly stated that the Flemish people were "being replaced" in Belgium, posting claims on social media which endorsed the Great Replacement theory.

Denmark

Use of the Great Replacement ( da, Store Udskiftning) conspiracy theory has become common in right-wing Danish political rhetoric. In April 2019,

Rasmus Paludan Rasmus Paludan (born 2 January 1982) is a Danish-Swedish politician, lawyer and far-right extremist. He is the leader of the far-right Danish political party Stram Kurs ("Straight Course" or "Hard Line"), which he founded in 2017. Paludan ha ...

, leader of the Hard Line party, which is widely associated with the Great Replacement, claimed that by the year 2040

ethnic Danish Danes ( da, danskere, ) are a North Germanic ethnic group and nationality native to Denmark and a modern nation identified with the country of Denmark. This connection may be ancestral, legal, historical, or cultural. Danes generally regard th ...

people would be approaching to be a minority in Denmark, having been outnumbered by Muslims and their descendants. During a debate for the 2019 European Parliament elections, Paludan used the concept to justify a proposal to ban Muslim immigration and deport all Islamic residents from the country, in what '' Le Monde'' described as Paludan "preaching the 'great replacement theory'". In June 2019, Pia Kjærsgaard invoked the conspiracy theory while serving as Speaker of the Danish Parliament. After the alleged encouragement of Muslim communities to "vote red", for the Social Democrats; Kjærsgaard asked "What will happen? A replacement of the Danish people?".

Germany

Ex-SPD politician Thilo Sarrazin is reported to be one of the most influential promoters of the Great Replacement, having published several books on the subject, some of which, such as ''

'', are in high circulation. Sarrazin has proposed that there are too many immigrants in Germany, and that they supposedly have lower IQs than Germans. Regarding the demographics of Germany, he has claimed that in a century

ethnic Germans , native_name_lang = de , region1 = , pop1 = 72,650,269 , region2 = , pop2 = 534,000 , region3 = , pop3 = 157,000 3,322,405 , region4 = , pop4 = ...

will drop in number to 25 million, in 200 years to eight million and in 300 years: three million. In May 2016,

Alternative for Germany Alternative for Germany (german: link=no, Alternative für Deutschland, AfD; ) is a right-wing populist * * * * * * * political party in Germany. AfD is known for its opposition to the European Union, as well as immigration to Germany. I ...

(german: link=no, Alternative für Deutschland, AfD) deputy leader

Beatrix von Storch Beatrix Amelie Ehrengard Eilika von Storch (née Herzogin von Oldenburg; 27 May 1971) is a German politician and lawyer, who has been the Deputy Leader of the Alternative for Germany since July 2015 and a Member of the Bundestag since Septembe ...

used a language reminiscent of the theory when she claimed that plans for a mass exchange of populations ("''Massenaustausch der Bevölkerung''") had long been made. In April 2017, a few months before he assumed the leadership of the AfD,

Alexander Gauland Eberhardt Alexander Gauland (born 20 February 1941) is a German politician, journalist and lawyer who has served as leader of the right-wing political party Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the Bundestag since September 2017 and co-leader of t ...

released a press statement regarding the issue of family reunification for refugees, in which he claimed that "Population exchange in Germany is running at full speed". In October 2018, following Beatrix von Storch's lead, Bundestag member

Petr Bystron Petr Bystron (born 30 November 1972 in Olomouc) is a German politician. He was a candidate for Munich North for the Bundestag during the German federal election in 2017 for the right-wing Alternative for Germany Alternative for Germany ( ...

said the

Global Compact for Migration The Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration (GCM) is an intergovernmentally negotiated agreement, prepared under the auspices of the United Nations, that describes itself as covering "all dimensions of international migration Int ...

was part of the conspiracy to bring about systemic population change in Germany. In March 2019, '' Vice Germany'' reported how AfD MP attempted to justify and assign blame for the Christchurch mosque shootings, in relation to his "The Great Exchange" theory, by asserting that the shooter's actions were driven by "overpopulation" from immigrants and "climate protection" against them. Laatsch also claimed that the climate movement, who he labelled "climate panic propagators", had a "shared responsibility" for the massacre, and singled out child activist Greta Thunberg. Similarly, right-wing publicist denied that either

Anders Behring Breivik Fjotolf Hansen (born 13 February 1979), better known by his birth name Anders Behring Breivik () and by his pseudonym Andrew Berwick, is a Norwegian far-right domestic terrorist, known for committing the 2011 Norway attacks on 22 July 2011. On ...

's 2011 manifesto, which referred to the

variant of the "white genocide" narrative, or Brenton Tarrant's 2019 ''The Great Replacement'' manifesto, had any connection to the theory. Claiming that it was, in fact, not a conspiracy theory at all, Lichtmesz said both Breivik and Tarrant were reacting to a real phenomenon; a "historically unique experiment" of a "Great Exchange" of people.

Hungary

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his political party Fidesz in Hungary have been associated with the conspiracy theory over the course of several years. '' The Sydney Morning Herald'' detailed Orbán's belief in and promotion of the Great Replacement as being central to the modern right-wing politics of Europe. In December 2018, he claimed the "Christian identity of Europe" needed saving, and labelled refugees traveling to Europe as "Muslim invaders". In a speech, Orbán asserted: "If in the future Europe is to be populated by people other than Europeans, and we accept this as a fact and see it as natural, then we will effectively be consenting to population replacement: to a process in which the European population is replaced". He has also stated: "In all of Europe there are fewer and fewer children, and the answer of the West is migration," concluding that "We Hungarians have a different way of thinking. Instead of just numbers, we want Hungarian children." '' ThinkProgress'' described the comments as pushing a version of the theory. In April 2019,

Radio New Zealand Radio New Zealand ( mi, Te Reo Irirangi o Aotearoa), commonly known as Radio NZ or simply RNZ, is a New Zealand public-service radio broadcaster and Crown entity that was established under the Radio New Zealand Act 1995. It operates news and c ...

published insight that Orban's plans to cut taxes for large Hungarian families could be linked with fears of the Great Replacement.

Republic of Ireland

A 2019 Lidl advertisement that featured a white Irish woman, her Afro-Brazilian partner and their mixed race son was targeted by former journalist Gemma O'Doherty as part of an attempt at a "Great Replacement." After facing online harassment the family decided to leave Ireland. The "Great Replacement" has also been used in Ireland in opposition to direct provision centres, used to house

asylum seekers An asylum seeker is a person who leaves their country of residence, enters another country and applies for asylum (i.e., international protection) in that other country. An asylum seeker is an immigrant who has been forcibly displaced and mi ...

. Writing in 2020,

Richard Downes Richard Downes is an Irish broadcaster and journalist. He has worked for the Press Association, Reuters, the ''Financial Times'', the BBC and RTÉ. He was one of the presenters of ''Morning Ireland'' on RTÉ Radio 1 from 2002 until 2010 and was ...

said that "Rather than seeing the increase in non-Irish people living and making their lives here as being a normal part of a modern European country, some of the new nationalists see it as a conspiracy to overwhelm Ireland with foreigners. For many of them the conspirators include the Irish government, NGOs, the EU and the UN. They believe that these organisations want to replace Irish people with brown and black people from abroad." The term "great replacement" was also used when the

RTÉ News RTÉ News and Current Affairs ( ga, Nuacht agus Cúrsaí Reatha RTÉ), also known as RTÉ News (''Nuacht RTÉ''), is the national news service provided by Irish public broadcaster Raidió Teilifís Éireann. Its services include local, nationa ...

featured the three first babies born in 2020, born to

Polish Polish may refer to: * Anything from or related to Poland, a country in Europe * Polish language * Poles, people from Poland or of Polish descent * Polish chicken *Polish brothers (Mark Polish and Michael Polish, born 1970), American twin screenwr ...

, Black and Indian mothers; journalist

Fergus Finlay Fergus Finlay (born 1 June 1950) is the former Chief Executive of the charity Barnardos in Ireland, leaving the post in 2018. He was a senior member of the Irish Labour Party and is also a weekly columnist with the '' Irish Examiner'' and the autho ...

saying "I don't care about the vulgar abuse, but I really do believe that these hatemongers should be prosecuted when they incite others to hatred and violence against people whose only crime is their skin colour or religion. I find it hard to understand why the State hasn't acted already against these cruel ideologues who think they can say whatever they like under the banner of free speech. They may be small in number now, and on the surface they may just seem bonkers, but we've been here before. Political movements have been built on hatred of the other, and we know the damage they have caused."

Garda Commissioner The Garda Commissioner ( ga, Coimisinéir an Gharda Síochána) – officially known as the Commissioner of An Garda Síochána – is the head of the Garda Síochána, the national police force of the Republic of Ireland. The Garda Commissione ...

(national chief of police)

Drew Harris Jeremy Andrew Harris, (born 5 April 1965), is the current Commissioner of the Garda Síochána in the Republic of Ireland, having assumed office in September 2018. He previously served as Deputy Chief Constable of the Police Service of Northern ...

spoke about far right groups in 2020, saying that "Irish groups elievingin the great replacement theory" had plans "to disrupt key State institutions and infrastructure. This included Dublin Port, high profile shopping areas such as Grafton Street in Dublin,

Dáil Éireann Dáil Éireann ( , ; ) is the lower house, and principal chamber, of the Oireachtas (Irish legislature), which also includes the President of Ireland and Seanad Éireann (the upper house).Article 15.1.2º of the Constitution of Ireland read ...

and Government departments."

Italy

Giorgia Meloni Quirinale (2022) (cropped)

The current Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has endorsed the Great Replacement ideology. Deputy Prime Minister

Matteo Salvini Matteo Salvini (; born 9 March 1973) is an Italian politician who has served as Deputy Prime Minister of Italy and Italian Minister of Infrastructure and Transport, Minister of Infrastructure and Transport since 2022. He has been List of Federal ...

of Italy (2018–2019) has repeatedly adopted the theme of the Great Replacement. In May 2016, two years before his election to office, he claimed "ethnic replacement is underway" in Italy in an interview with Sky TG24. Accusing nameless, well-funded organizations for importing workers that he named "farm slaves", he stated that there was a "lucrative attempt at genocide" of Italians.

The Netherlands

In April 2015, writing on the publishing website GeenStijl, scholar of Islam

Hans Jansen Johannes Juliaan Gijsbert "Hans" Jansen (; 17 November 1942 – 5 May 2015) was a Dutch politician, scholar of contemporary Islam and author.

used Great Replacement rhetoric, suggesting that it was an "undisputed" fact that among the European Union's governing elite there was a common consensus that Europeans were "no good and can be better replaced". In May 2015,

Martin Bosma Martin Bosma (born 16 July 1964) is a Dutch politician and former journalist serving as a member of the House of Representatives for the Party for Freedom (PVV) since 30 November 2006 and as Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives since 2 ...

, a Dutch parliament Representative for the

Party for Freedom The Party for Freedom ( nl, Partij voor de Vrijheid, PVV) is a nationalist, right-wing populist political party in the Netherlands. Founded in 2006 as the successor to Geert Wilders' one-man faction in the House of Representatives, it won nine ...

(PVV), released his book . Invoking the conspiracy theory, Bosma wrote about a growing 'a new population' of immigrants which lent itself to an apparently 'post-racial Multicultural State of Salvation'. In March 2017, Thierry Baudet, leader of the right wing Forum for Democracy (FvD) party, promoted the theory after he claimed that the country's so-called elite were deliberately " homeopathically diluting" the Dutch population, in a speech about "national self-hatred". He said there was a plot to racially mix the ethnic Dutch with "all the people of the world", so that there would "never be a Dutchman again". In January 2018, PVV Representative

endorsed the Great Replacement theory, and one of its key propagators, after meeting with Renaud Camus at a PVV demonstration in Rotterdam and tweeting his support. Filip Dewinter, a leading member of the Flemish secessionist Vlaams Belang party, who had traveled to the Netherlands on the day of the protest to meet with Camus, named him as a "visionary man" to the media.

politician Geert Wilders of the Netherlands supports the notion of a Great Replacement occurring in Europe. In October 2018, Wilders invoked the conspiracy theory, claiming the Netherlands was "being replaced with mass immigration from non-western Islamic countries" and Rotterdam being "the port of

". He claimed 77 million, mainly Islamic immigrants would attempt to enter Europe over the course of half a century, and that

white Europeans White is a racialized classification of people and a skin color specifier, generally used for people of European origin, although the definition can vary depending on context, nationality, and point of view. Description of populations as " ...

would cease to exist unless they were stopped. In 2019, '' The New York Times'' reported how Camus's demographic-based alarmist theories help fuel Wilders and his

's nativist campaigning. In September 2018, Dutch author

Paul Scheffer Paul Scheffer ( Nijmegen, 3 September 1954) is a Dutch author, he was professor at the Universiteit van Amsterdam between 2003 and 2011, currently he is professor of European studies at Tilburg University. Paul Scheffer is also a prominent member ...

analyzed the Great Replacement and its political developments, suggesting that Forum for Democracy and

were forming policy regarding the

demography of the Netherlands This article is about the demographic features of the population of the Netherlands, including population density, ethnicity, education level, health of the population, economic status, religious affiliations and other aspects of the populati ...

through the lens of the conspiracy theory.

Spain

The far-right party Vox has been described as circulating the theory for its discourse about low natality rates in Spaniards compared to migrants. According to journalist Antonio Maestre of ''

ElDiario.es ''elDiario.es'' is an online newspaper based in Spain. Founded in 2012 and published only in Spanish, it has been available since 18 September 2012. ''eldiario.es'' is managed by Ignacio Escolar, a journalist who was the first editor of '' Púb ...

'', such an ideology is shared between Vox and some extreme strains of

Catalan nationalism Catalan nationalism is the ideology asserting that the Catalans are a distinct nation. Intellectually, modern Catalan nationalism can be said to have commenced as a political philosophy in the unsuccessful attempts to establish a federal state i ...

who fear replacement by Spanish-speakers.

United Kingdom

According to November 2018 research from the University of Cambridge, 31% of Brexit voters believe in the conspiracy theory compared to 6% of British people who oppose Brexit. In July 2019, left-wing English musician and activist

Billy Bragg Stephen William Bragg (born 20 December 1957) is an English singer-songwriter and left-wing activist. His music blends elements of folk music, punk rock and protest songs, with lyrics that mostly span political or romantic themes. His music is ...

released a public statement which accused fellow singer-songwriter

Morrissey Steven Patrick Morrissey (; born 22 May 1959), known professionally as Morrissey, is an English singer and songwriter. He came to prominence as the frontman and lyricist of rock band the Smiths, who were active from 1982 to 1987. Since then ...

of endorsing the theory. Bragg suggested "that Morrissey is helping to spread this idea—which inspired the Christchurch mosque murderer—is beyond doubt".

North America

Canada

YouTuber Lauren Southern of Canada has helped amplify the conspiracy theory. In 2017, Southern dedicated a video to the Great Replacement, gaining over half a million views on her channel, before it was deleted. 2018 mayoral candidate for Toronto

Faith Goldy Faith Julia Goldy (born June 8, 1989), also known as Faith Goldy-Bazos, is a Canadian far-right, white nationalist political commentator, associated with the alt-right and white supremacy. She was a contributor to ''The Rebel Media'' and cover ...

has publicly embraced the replacement theory. In 2019, in the aftermath of the Christchurch mosque shootings in Christchurch, New Zealand, '' Vice'' accused Goldy of routinely pushing the same ideas of birthrate declines and the population replacement of whites, found in the gunman's ''The Great Replacement'' manifesto. Long-time white nationalist Paul Fromm, when he co-opted the pre-1967 Red Ensign flag of Canada, referred to it as "the flag of the true Canada, the European Canada before the treasonous European replacement schemes brought in by the 1965 immigration policies". In June 2019, columnist

Lindsay Shepherd Lindsay Shepherd (born 7 December 1994) is a Canadian columnist who became known for her involvement, as a graduate student and teaching assistant, in an academic freedom controversy at Wilfrid Laurier University (WLU) in Waterloo, Ontario, in ...

claimed that "whites are becoming a minority" in the West, describing her assertion as "population replacement". She was criticized by Canadian MP

Colin Fraser Colin Fraser may refer to: *Colin Fraser (Australian politician) (died 1877), Australian politician *Colin Fraser (Canadian politician) (born 1978), Canadian politician * Colin Fraser (ice hockey) (born 1985), Canadian professional ice hockey playe ...

at a House of Commons justice committee for not denouncing the concept, while Nathaniel Erskine-Smith accused Shepherd of openly embracing the conspiracy theory.

United States

The

Great replacement in the United States In the United States, the far-right Great Replacement conspiracy theory holds that political elites are purposefully seeking to increase the number of racial minorities to displace the white American population. Supporters have used the conspiracy t ...

is the American version of a white nationalist far-right conspiracy theory that racial minorities are displacing the traditional white American population and taking control of the nation. Versions of the theory "have become commonplace" in the Republican Party of the United States, and have become a major issue of political debate. It also has stimulated violent responses including mass murders. It resembles the Great Replacement theory promoted in Europe, but has its origins in American nativism around 1900. According to Erika Lee, in 1894 the old stock Yankee upper-class founders of the Immigration Restriction League were, “convinced that Anglo-Saxon traditions, peoples, and culture were being drowned in a flood of racially inferior foreigners from Southern and Eastern Europe.”

Oceania

Australia

The media in Australia have covered former Senator Fraser Anning of Queensland and his endorsement of the Great Replacement conspiracy theory. In April 2019, Reuters reported how Anning was amplifying replacement theory by suggesting that Muslims would "out-breed us very quickly". In May 2019, Anning alleged that white Australians would "fast become a minority" if they did not defend their "ethno-cultural identity".

New Zealand

The far right neo-Nazi youth group

Action Zealandia Action Zealandia is a White nationalist and neo-Nazi group in New Zealand that emerged following the Christchurch mosque shooting in 2019 as the successor to an earlier group called the Dominion Movement. According to Newshub, Action Zealandia ...

has endorsed the Great Replacement theory, alleging that European identity in New Zealand is being threatened by economically-driven non-white migration. In addition, the group has promoted the pseudohistorical notion that white people settled in New Zealand before the arrival of the indigenous Māori people. According to the journalist Marc Daalder, Action Zealandia is the successor to the Dominion Movement, a far right group that ceased its activities following the 2019 Christchurch mosque shootings.

Influence on white nationalist terrorism

Implicit call to violence

Camus's use of strong terms like "colonization" and "Occupiers" to label non-European immigrants and their children have been described as implicit calls to violence. Scholars like Jean-Yves Camus have argued that the "Great Replacement" conspiracy theory closely parallels the concept of "

remigration Remigration, or re-immigration, sometimes euphemized as "repatriation", is a far-right political concept referring to the forced or promoted return of non-ethnically European immigrants, often including their descendants, back to their place of ra ...

", an euphemistic term for the forced deportation of non-white immigrants. "We shall not leave Europe, we shall make Africa leave Europe," Camus wrote in 2019 to define his political agenda for the European parliament elections. He has also used another euphemism, the "Great Repatriation", to refer to remigration. According to historians Nicolas Bancel and Pascal Blanchard, along with sociologist Ahmed Boubeker, "the announcement of a civil war is implicit in the theory of the 'great replacement' ..This thesis is extreme—and so simplistic that it can be understood by anyone—because it validates a racial definition of the nation." Sceptical of Camus's description of second or third generation immigrants as being itself a contradiction in terms—"they do not migrate anymore, they are French"—demographer

Hervé Le Bras Hervé Le Bras (born June 6, 1943) is a French demographer and historian. Early life Hervé Le Bras was born on June 6, 1943 in Paris, France. He graduated from the École Polytechnique. Career Le Bras did an internship in anthropology in Chad f ...

is also critical of their designation as a

in France or an "internal enemy".

Inspired attacks

Fears of the white race's extinction, and replacement theory in particular, have been cited by several accused perpetrators of mass shootings between 2018, 2019 and 2022. While Camus has stated his own philosophy is a nonviolent one, analysts including Heidi Beirich of the Southern Poverty Law Center say the idea of

has "undoubtedly influenced" American white supremacists, potentially leading to violence. In October 2018, a gunman killed 11 people and injured 6 in an attack on the Tree of Life synagogue in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The gunman believed Jews were deliberately importing non-white immigrants into the United States as part of a conspiracy against the white race. Brenton Harrison Tarrant, the Australian terrorist responsible for the mass shootings at Al Noor Mosque and Linwood Islamic Centre in Christchurch, New Zealand, on 15 March 2019, that killed 51 people and injured 49, named his

manifesto A manifesto is a published declaration of the intentions, motives, or views of the issuer, be it an individual, group, political party or government. A manifesto usually accepts a previously published opinion or public consensus or promotes a ...

''The Great Replacement'', a reference to Camus's book. In response, Camus condemned violence while reaffirming his desire for a "counter-revolt" against an increase in nonwhite populations. In 2019, research by the

Institute for Strategic Dialogue The Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD) is a think tank founded in 2006 by Sasha Havlicek and George Weidenfeld that specialises in research and policy advice on hate, extremism, and disinformation. It is headquartered in London, United Kin ...

showed over 24,000 social media mentions of the Great Replacement in the month before the Christchurch shootings, in comparison to just 3,431 mentions in April 2012. The use of the term spiked in April 2019 after the Christchurch mosque shootings. Patrick Crusius, the suspect in the

, posted an online manifesto titled ''The Inconvenient Truth'' alluding to the "great replacement" and expressing support for "the Christchurch shooter" minutes before the attack. It spoke of a "Hispanic invasion of Texas" leading to "cultural and ethnic replacement" (alluding to the '' Reconquista'') as justifications for the shooting. Available vi
''The Irish Times''
. The suspect accused in the

listed the Great Replacement in a manifesto he had published prior to the attack. The suspect described himself as a

fascist Fascism is a far-right, Authoritarianism, authoritarian, ultranationalism, ultra-nationalist political Political ideology, ideology and Political movement, movement,: "extreme militaristic nationalism, contempt for electoral democracy and pol ...

, white supremacist, and antisemite.

Notes

References

Citations

Sources

* Alba, Richard. ''The Great Demographic Illusion: Majority, Minority, and the Expanding American Mainstream'' (Princeton UP, 2020) https://doi.org/10.1515/9780691202112 * * * * * * * * * *