use both this parameter and , birth_date to display the person's date of birth, date of death, and age at death) --> , death_place = , death_cause = , body_discovered = , resting_place = , resting_place_coordinates = , burial_place = , burial_coordinates = , monuments = , nationality = , siglum = , citizenship = , education = *

Amherst College Amherst College ( ) is a Private college, private Liberal arts colleges in the United States, liberal arts college in Amherst, Massachusetts, United States. Founded in 1821 as an attempt to relocate Williams College by its then-president Zepha ...

(BA in physics) *

Stanford University Leland Stanford Junior University, commonly referred to as Stanford University, is a Private university, private research university in Stanford, California, United States. It was founded in 1885 by railroad magnate Leland Stanford (the eighth ...

(MA and PhD in economics) , alma_mater = , occupation = financial analyst and commentator , years_active = , era = , employer = , organization = , agent = , known_for = , notable_works = “The Housing Bubble Will Probably Burst” (January 2006) , style = , height = , television = , title = , term = , predecessor = , successor = , party = , otherparty = , movement = , opponents = , boards = , spouse = , partner = , children = , parents = , mother = , father = , relatives = , family = , callsign = , awards = , website = , module = , module2 = , module3 = , module4 = , module5 = , module6 = , signature = , signature_size = , signature_alt = , footnotes = , name = Gary Shilling , image = A. Gary Shilling Image.jpg , birth_place =

Fremont, Ohio Fremont is a city in Sandusky County, Ohio, United States, and its county seat. It is located along the Sandusky River about southeast of Toledo, Ohio, Toledo and west of Sandusky, Ohio, Sandusky. The population was 15,930 at the 2020 United St ...

, United States A. Gary Shilling (born May 25, 1937) is an American

financial Finance refers to monetary resources and to the study and Academic discipline, discipline of money, currency, assets and Liability (financial accounting), liabilities. As a subject of study, is a field of Business administration, Business Admin ...

analyst and commentator who appears regularly in publications such as ''

Forbes ''Forbes'' () is an American business magazine founded by B. C. Forbes in 1917. It has been owned by the Hong Kong–based investment group Integrated Whale Media Investments since 2014. Its chairman and editor-in-chief is Steve Forbes. The co ...

'', ''

The New York Times ''The New York Times'' (''NYT'') is an American daily newspaper based in New York City. ''The New York Times'' covers domestic, national, and international news, and publishes opinion pieces, investigative reports, and reviews. As one of ...

'', and ''

The Wall Street Journal ''The Wall Street Journal'' (''WSJ''), also referred to simply as the ''Journal,'' is an American newspaper based in New York City. The newspaper provides extensive coverage of news, especially business and finance. It operates on a subscriptio ...

''. He is president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., Inc., editor of ''A. Gary Shilling's Insight'', and a member of the ''

Nihon Keizai Shimbun ''The Nikkei'', also known as , is the flagship publication of Nikkei, Inc. (based in Tokyo) and the world's largest financial newspaper, with a daily circulation exceeding 1.73 million copies. The Nikkei 225, a stock market index for the Tokyo ...

'' Board of Economists. He is featured frequently on business shows on radio and television, and as a recognised orator, addresses conventions of global business groups like the Young Presidents' Organization. More than two years before the

housing bubble A housing bubble (or housing price bubble) is one of several types of asset price bubbles which periodically occur in the market. The basic concept of a housing bubble is the same as for other asset bubbles, consisting of two main phases. First t ...

burst, Shilling warned that subprime loans were probably "the greatest financial problem" for the future U.S. economy, and in January 2006, prior to the

Great Recession The Great Recession was a period of market decline in economies around the world that occurred from late 2007 to mid-2009.

, he wrote an article entitled: “The Housing Bubble Will Probably Burst”. In 2007 he correctly prophesied that housing would "sink the economy".

Biography

Shilling was awarded a bachelor's degree in physics from

, and an MA and PhD in economics from

. He has worked for Thornhill Securities, the

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (informally referred to as the San Francisco Fed) is the Federal Reserve, federal bank for the twelfth district in the United States. The twelfth district is made up of nine western U.S. state, states— ...

Merrill Lynch Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated, doing business as Merrill, and previously branded Merrill Lynch, is an American investment management and wealth management division of Bank of America. Along with BofA Securities, the investm ...

, White Weld & Co., and Standard Oil Co NJ. In the spring of 1969, he was one of only a few analysts who correctly envisioned the

recession In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction that occurs when there is a period of broad decline in economic activity. Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending (an adverse demand shock). This may be tr ...

at year's-end, and was almost a lone voice in 1973, when he forecast a monolithic international inventory-building fling, followed by the first significant recession since the

Great Depression The Great Depression was a severe global economic downturn from 1929 to 1939. The period was characterized by high rates of unemployment and poverty, drastic reductions in industrial production and international trade, and widespread bank and ...

. In the late 1970s, while most analysts presumed that waxing

inflation In economics, inflation is an increase in the average price of goods and services in terms of money. This increase is measured using a price index, typically a consumer price index (CPI). When the general price level rises, each unit of curre ...

would go on unabated, Shilling was the first to predict that America's infirm political climate would impede it. He also foresaw various dangerous economic readjustment problems and a shift in investment strategy from a preference for

tangible asset In financial accounting, an asset is any resource owned or controlled by a business or an economic entity. It is anything (tangible or intangible) that can be used to produce positive economic value. Assets represent value of ownership that can b ...

s to an increased emphasis on stocks and bonds. He was named Top Commodity Trading Advisor by '' Futures Magazine'' in 1993 and Wall Street Top Economist (1975 and 1976) by ''

Institutional Investor Magazine ''Institutional Investor'' magazine was a periodical published by Euromoney Institutional Investor. It was founded in 1967 by Gilbert E. Kaplan. A separate international edition of the magazine was established in 1976 for readers in Europe and A ...

''. More than two years before the

burst, Shilling warned that subprime loans were probably "the greatest financial problem" for the future U.S. economy, and in January 2006, prior to the

Great Recession The Great Recession was a period of market decline in economies around the world that occurred from late 2007 to mid-2009.

, he wrote an article entitled: “The Housing Bubble Will Probably Burst” in ''A. Gary Shilling's Insight''. In 2007 he correctly prophesied that housing would "sink the economy". In June 2011, he predicted a 20% drop in housing in 2012 with a resulting global recession. In October 2012 he predicted a global recession in 2013. In August 2015, he predicted that the

price of oil The price of oil, or the oil price, generally refers to the spot price of a barrel () of benchmark crude oil—a reference price for buyers and sellers of crude oil such as West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Brent Crude, Dubai Crude, OPEC ...

"is headed for $10 to $20 per barrel" (it was $43/barrel at the time) due to higher productivity through

fracking Fracking (also known as hydraulic fracturing, fracing, hydrofracturing, or hydrofracking) is a well stimulation technique involving the fracturing of formations in bedrock by a pressurized liquid. The process involves the high-pressure inje ...

and

OPEC The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC ) is an organization enabling the co-operation of leading oil-producing and oil-dependent countries in order to collectively influence the global oil market and maximize Profit (eco ...

not limiting production.

References

External links

"Statement of A. Gary Shilling,"
''Economic Report of the President, Hearings Before the Joint Economic Committee, Congress of the United States'', 1982. {{DEFAULTSORT:Shilling, Gary 1937 births 20th-century American economists 21st-century American economists American financial analysts American male journalists Amherst College alumni Economists from New Jersey Economists from Ohio Federal Reserve economists Living people Merrill (company) people Nikkei Inc. Stanford University alumni