Gabriele Clarissa Hegerl (born 9 January 1962) is a German climatologist. She is a professor of climate system science at the
University of Edinburgh
The University of Edinburgh (, ; abbreviated as ''Edin.'' in Post-nominal letters, post-nominals) is a Public university, public research university based in Edinburgh, Scotland. Founded by the City of Edinburgh Council, town council under th ...
School of GeoSciences. Prior to 2007 she held research positions at
Texas A&M University
Texas A&M University (Texas A&M, A&M, TA&M, or TAMU) is a public university, public, Land-grant university, land-grant, research university in College Station, Texas, United States. It was founded in 1876 and became the flagship institution of ...
and at
Duke University
Duke University is a Private university, private research university in Durham, North Carolina, United States. Founded by Methodists and Quakers in the present-day city of Trinity, North Carolina, Trinity in 1838, the school moved to Durham in 1 ...
's
Nicholas School of the Environment
The Duke University Nicholas School of the Environment is one of ten graduate and professional schools at Duke University and is headquartered on Duke’s main campus in Durham, N.C. A secondary coastal facility, Duke University Marine Laborator ...
, during which time she was a co-ordinating lead author for the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an intergovernmental body of the United Nations. Its job is to "provide governments at all levels with scientific information that they can use to develop climate policies". The World Met ...
(IPCC) Fourth and Fifth Assessment Report.
Early life and education
Hegerl was born on 9 January 1962 in
Munich
Munich is the capital and most populous city of Bavaria, Germany. As of 30 November 2024, its population was 1,604,384, making it the third-largest city in Germany after Berlin and Hamburg. Munich is the largest city in Germany that is no ...
, Germany. She gained undergraduate and graduate degrees at the
Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich
The Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (simply University of Munich, LMU or LMU Munich; ) is a public university, public research university in Munich, Bavaria, Germany. Originally established as the University of Ingolstadt in 1472 by Duke ...
, finishing with a
PhD
A Doctor of Philosophy (PhD, DPhil; or ) is a terminal degree that usually denotes the highest level of academic achievement in a given discipline and is awarded following a course of graduate study and original research. The name of the deg ...
in 1991, with a thesis using a numerical solution of the
Navier–Stokes equations
The Navier–Stokes equations ( ) are partial differential equations which describe the motion of viscous fluid substances. They were named after French engineer and physicist Claude-Louis Navier and the Irish physicist and mathematician Georg ...
using boundary conditions.
Research and career
Hegerl's research
in the natural variability of climate and changes in climate due to natural and anthropogenic changes in radiative forcing (such as greenhouse warming, climate effects of volcanic eruptions and changes in solar radiation). Hegerl has also led well-known research on the attribution of modern climate change to anthropogenic
greenhouse gas emission
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from human activities intensify the greenhouse effect. This contributes to climate change. Carbon dioxide (), from burning fossil fuels such as coal, petroleum, oil, and natural gas, is the main cause of climate chan ...
.
She led a 2006 study examining
climate sensitivity
Climate sensitivity is a key measure in climate science and describes how much Earth's surface will warm for a doubling in the atmospheric carbon dioxide () concentration. Its formal definition is: "The change in the surface temperature in resp ...
, then commonly accepted as 1.5 to 4.5K in response to a doubling of atmospheric , to review observational studies suggesting that climate sensitivity could be as much as 7.7K or even exceed 9K. By using large-ensemble energy balance modelling to simulate temperature responses to historic changes in the
radiative forcing
Radiative forcing (or climate forcing) is a concept used to quantify a change to the balance of energy flowing through a planetary atmosphere. Various factors contribute to this change in energy balance, such as concentrations of greenhouse gases ...
effect of solar changes, volcanic eruptions and greenhouse gases, and comparing this to climate reconstructions, they produced an independent estimate that climate sensitivity was probably within the range of 1.5 to 6.2K. In an interview with ''
The Washington Times
''The Washington Times'' is an American Conservatism, conservative daily newspaper published in Washington, D.C. It covers general interest topics with an emphasis on Politics of the United States, national politics. Its broadsheet daily edit ...
'', Hegerl said "Our reconstruction supports a lot of variability in the past".
She is a co-ordinating lead author on the
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
''Climate Change 2007'', the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), was published in 2007 and is the fourth in a series of reports intended to assess scientific, technical and soci ...
for Working Group I in the chapter on "Understanding and Attributing Climate Change". Her 2006 reconstruction was cited in the chapter on "Paleoclimate" in support of the conclusion that the 20th century was likely to have been the warmest in the Northern Hemisphere for at least 1,300 years.
She was a member of a team which reviewed recent reconstructions of the
temperature record of the past 1000 years
The temperature record of the last 2,000 years is reconstructed using data from climate proxy records in conjunction with the modern instrumental temperature record which only covers the last 170 years at a global scale. Large-scale reconstructi ...
, and in 2007 published their own reconstruction from proxies, finding that the maximum pre-industrial temperature in 1,000 years had been significantly exceeded by recent instrumental temperatures.
Publications
Hegerl's publications include:
*"Annular Modes in the Extratropical Circulation. Part II: Trends",
*"Simulation of the influence of solar radiation variations on the global climate with an ocean-atmosphere general circulation", by U Cubasch, R Voss, GC Hegerl, J Waszkewitz, T. J. Crowley – Climate Dynamics, 1997
*"Multi-fingerprint detection and attribution analysis of greenhouse gas, greenhouse gas-plus-aerosol and solar forced climate change", by G. C. Hegerl, K. Hasselmann, U. Cubasch, J. F. B. Mitchell, E. Roeckner, R. Voss and J. Waszkewitz
*"Detecting Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climate Change with an Optimal Fingerprint Method",
*"Detection of climate change and attribution of causes", by JFB Mitchell, DJ Karoly, GC Hegerl, FW Zwiers, MR … – Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, 2001
*"The Effect of Local Sea Surface Temperatures on Atmospheric Circulation over the Tropical Atlantic"
*"On multi-fingerprint detection and attribution of greenhouse gas- and aerosol forced climate change"
Honours and awards
Hegerl was appointed
CBE
The Most Excellent Order of the British Empire is a British order of chivalry, rewarding valuable service in a wide range of useful activities. It comprises five classes of awards across both civil and military divisions, the most senior two o ...
for "services to Climate Science" in the 2025 Birthday Honours List.
In 2013, she was elected a
Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh
Fellowship of the Royal Society of Edinburgh (FRSE) is an award granted to individuals that the Royal Society of Edinburgh, Scotland's national academy of science and Literature, letters, judged to be "eminently distinguished in their subject". ...
(FRSE) and in 2017 she was elected a
Fellow of the Royal Society
Fellowship of the Royal Society (FRS, ForMemRS and HonFRS) is an award granted by the Fellows of the Royal Society of London to individuals who have made a "substantial contribution to the improvement of natural science, natural knowledge, incl ...
(FRS). One or more of the preceding sentences incorporates text from the royalsociety.org website where: In 2018 she became a member of the
German Academy of Sciences Leopoldina
The German National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina (), in short Leopoldina, is the national academy of Germany, and is located in Halle (Saale). Founded on 1 January 1652, based on academic models in Italy, it was originally named the ''Academi ...
.
In 2016, Professor Hegerl won the
Hans Sigrist Prize The Hans Sigrist Prize is awarded by the Hans Sigrist Foundation, at the University of Bern in Switzerland. The Foundation's benefactor Hans Sigrist died on December 30, 1982. The Foundation was founded in 1993. The Foundation's first award was pre ...
"for her groundbreaking scientific work in this year’s prize field, 'The Human Fingerprint on the Earth System'" In 2018 she was made an honorary
Doctor of Science
A Doctor of Science (; most commonly abbreviated DSc or ScD) is a science doctorate awarded in a number of countries throughout the world.
Africa
Algeria and Morocco
In Algeria, Morocco, Libya and Tunisia, all universities accredited by the s ...
by Leeds University.
Personal life
Hegerl was married to Thomas Crowley and was later widowed. She has two sons, born in 2000 and 2003.