The Full spectrum deterrence (previously known as Minimum Credible Deterrence (MCD; officially named N-deterrence) is the defence and

strategic Strategy (from Greek στρατηγία ''stratēgia'', "troop leadership; office of general, command, generalship") is a general plan to achieve one or more long-term or overall goals under conditions of uncertainty. In the sense of the "art o ...

principle on which the atomic weapons programme of Pakistan is based. This doctrine is not a part of the nuclear doctrine, which is designed for the use of the atomic weapons in a full-scale

declared war A declaration of war is a formal act by which one state announces existing or impending war activity against another. The declaration is a performative speech act (or the public signing of a document) by an authorized party of a national govern ...

if the conditions of the doctrine are surpassed. Instead, the policy of the Minimum Credible Deterrence falls under

minimal deterrence In nuclear strategy, minimal deterrence, also known as minimum deterrence and finite deterrence, is an application of deterrence theory in which a state possesses no more nuclear weapons than is necessary to deter an adversary from attacking.Kriste ...

as an inverse to the

Mutually Assured Destruction Mutual assured destruction (MAD) is a doctrine of military strategy and national security policy which posits that a full-scale use of nuclear weapons by an attacker on a nuclear-armed defender with second-strike capabilities would result in ...

(MAD), which is widely regarded as designed to dissuade India from taking any military actions against Pakistan, as it did in 1971, when Pakistan started the war. (see: Indo-Pakistani war of 1971) Pakistan refuses to adopt

No first use In nuclear ethics and deterrence theory, no first use (NFU) refers to a type of pledge or policy wherein a nuclear power formally refrains from the use of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in warfare, except for as a se ...

policy, while the other regional powers,

India India, officially the Republic of India, is a country in South Asia. It is the List of countries and dependencies by area, seventh-largest country by area; the List of countries by population (United Nations), most populous country since ...

and

China China, officially the People's Republic of China (PRC), is a country in East Asia. With population of China, a population exceeding 1.4 billion, it is the list of countries by population (United Nations), second-most populous country after ...

, have adopted the policy. Pakistan's foreign minister

Shamshad Ahmad Shamshad Ahmad () (born 10 December 1941) is a veteran Pakistani diplomat, international relations expert and an author who served in BPS-22 grade as the Foreign Secretary of Pakistan from 1997 to 2000. He also served as the Permanent Repres ...

had warned that if Pakistan is ever invaded or attacked, it will use "any weapon in its arsenal" to defend itself.

Developmental history

The comprehensive nuclear weapons policy was addressed by populist prime minister

Zulfikar Ali Bhutto Zulfikar Ali Bhutto (5 January 1928 – 4 April 1979) was a Pakistani barrister and politician who served as the fourth president of Pakistan from 1971 to 1973 and later as the ninth Prime Minister of Pakistan, prime minister of Pakistan from 19 ...

in a vision for the country to "walk tall" in global politics. Maintaining equality on every level of scientific development with India was a primary motivation for his government. Domestically, the popular support helped Bhutto to consolidate the political and economical aspects of atomic bomb projects and the control of the

Pakistan military The Pakistan Armed Forces (; ) are the military forces of Pakistan. It is the world's sixth-largest military measured by active military personnel and consists of three uniformed services—the Army, Navy, and the Air Force, which are backed ...

in civilian hands. This led the creation of formation of defence mechanism systematic programmes, known as National Command Authority (NCA), Joint Special Forces (JSF) under the control of the

Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee The Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (JCSC), (); is an administrative body of senior high-ranking uniformed military leaders of the unified Pakistan Armed Forces who advises the civilian government of Pakistan, National Security Council, Defen ...

which is led by its designated

Chairman The chair, also chairman, chairwoman, or chairperson, is the presiding officer of an organized group such as a board, committee, or deliberative assembly. The person holding the office, who is typically elected or appointed by members of the gro ...

. Externally, the nuclear status was a way to boost Pakistan's prestige, importance and influence on among the friendly and Muslim nations, including rich Gulf monarchies. On 20 May 1999, in his address at the National Defence University (NDU), Prime minister Nawaz Sharif used the term "minimum credible deterrence" while speaking about Pakistan's nuclear stance. There, the Prime minister (even the government at present now), made cleared Pakistan's nuclear declaratory statements that India is regarded as its sole nuclear adversary and thus the focus of its nuclear deterrent. The MCD theory is based on the principles of the

deterrence theory Deterrence theory refers to the scholarship and practice of how threats of using force by one party can convince another party to refrain from initiating some other course of action. The topic gained increased prominence as a military strategy d ...

and offers the idea of the achieving the

second strike In nuclear strategy, a retaliatory strike or second-strike capability is a country's assured ability to respond to a nuclear attack with powerful nuclear retaliation against the attacker. To have such an ability (and to convince an opponent of its ...

capability. The MCD theory is effectively, an ideal form of the

Nash equilibrium In game theory, the Nash equilibrium is the most commonly used solution concept for non-cooperative games. A Nash equilibrium is a situation where no player could gain by changing their own strategy (holding all other players' strategies fixed) ...

(named after mathematician

John Forbes Nash John Forbes Nash Jr. (June 13, 1928 – May 23, 2015), known and published as John Nash, was an American mathematician who made fundamental contributions to game theory, real algebraic geometry, differential geometry, and partial differenti ...

), in which both India and Pakistan, once armed, have no rational incentive to either initiate a conflict, or to disarm.

Promulgation and enforcement

The policy framework was announced by

Prime minister A prime minister or chief of cabinet is the head of the cabinet and the leader of the ministers in the executive branch of government, often in a parliamentary or semi-presidential system. A prime minister is not the head of state, but r ...

of Pakistan (at that time)

Nawaz Sharif Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif (born 25 December 1949) is a Pakistani politician and businessman who served as the 12th Prime Minister of Pakistan, prime minister of Pakistan for three non-consecutive terms, first serving from 1990 to 1993, then ...

after ordering to perform country's first atomic tests (see the operations:

Chagai-I Chagai-I is the code name of five simultaneous underground nuclear tests conducted by Pakistan at 15:15 hrs Pakistan Standard Time, PKT on 28 May 1998. The tests were performed at Ras Koh Hills in the Chagai District of Balochistan Province. C ...

and

Chagai-II Chagai-II is the codename assigned to the second atomic test conducted by Pakistan, carried out on 30 May 1998 in the Kharan Desert in Balochistan Province of Pakistan. ''Chagai-II'' took place two days after Pakistan's first successful te ...

) in 1998 as part of

tit-for-tat Tit for tat is an English saying meaning "equivalent retaliation". It is an alternation (linguistics), alternation of ''wikt:tip#Noun 3, tip for wikt:tap#Verb 2, tap'' "blow for blow", first recorded in 1558. It is also a highly effective strat ...

policy. In end of 1998, the doctrine and organisation began to be redesigned, and a proceeded to a full-scope scientific, economical and defence review, involving key country's institutions, to develop and test ideas and concepts. The studies and policy were studied at the National Defence University (NDU),

National University of Sciences and Technology The National University of Sciences & Technology (NUST) () is a Pakistani multi-campus public research university with its main campus in Islamabad, and other campuses in Rawalpindi, Risalpur, Quetta and Karachi. It offers degrees in multiple ...

, Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) and various others. Since the public atomic tests in 1998,

Pakistan Government The Government of Pakistan () (abbreviated as GoP), constitutionally known as the Federal Government, commonly known as the Centre, is the national authority of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, a federal republic located in South Asia, cons ...

has adopted considerable recommendations and suggestions to think through its nuclear doctrine, and to integrate the nuclear power dimension into its defence strategy. The definition of potential thresholds has been refined, at least in public statements by Pakistani officials. According to one reliable source, the country adopted a three-point nuclear policy in early 2001 as part of the minimum credible deterrence. The most authoritative of these statements are provided by the officials of the Atomic Command Authority, in the form of four thresholds which were first mentioned by Khalid Kidwai in late 2001.

Policy statements

The theory of "Minimum Credible Deterrence (MCD)" has been variously interpreted by the different governments of Pakistan. Although the MCD theory was only officially adopted in 1998 as part of Pakistan's defence theory, it has been applied by the government since 1972. On military perspective, for instance, the

Pakistan Air Force The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) (; ) is the aerial warfare branch of the Pakistan Armed Forces, tasked primarily with the aerial defence of Pakistan, with a secondary role of providing air support to the Pakistan Army and Pakistan Navy when re ...

(PAF), has retrospectively contended that "While MCD is not about entering into a "

nuclear race The nuclear arms race was an arms race competition for supremacy in nuclear warfare between the United States, the Soviet Union, and their respective allies during the Cold War. During this same period, in addition to the American and Soviet nuc ...

", but to follow a policy of " peaceful co-existence" in the region, it cannot remain oblivious to the developments in

South Asia South Asia is the southern Subregion#Asia, subregion of Asia that is defined in both geographical and Ethnicity, ethnic-Culture, cultural terms. South Asia, with a population of 2.04 billion, contains a quarter (25%) of the world's populatio ...

officials have repeatedly emphasized that MCD is a defence theory, a doctrine that is based on maintaining a balance to safeguard its sovereignty and ensure peace in the region. In 1974, Bhutto launched a more aggressive and serious diplomatic offensive on the United States and the Western world over the nuclear issues. Writing to the world and Western leaders, Bhutto made it clear and maintained:

Rationale and persuasion

Senior officials,

economists An economist is a professional and practitioner in the social science discipline of economics. The individual may also study, develop, and apply theories and concepts from economics and write about economic policy. Within this field there are ...

game theorist A game is a structured type of play usually undertaken for entertainment or fun, and sometimes used as an educational tool. Many games are also considered to be work (such as professional players of spectator sports or video games) or art (such ...

s, and strategists affiliated with Pakistan's government have argued multiple times for maintaining the Minimum Credible Deterrence. Government officials point out that the " Indo-US nuclear deal as well as cooperation in the field of conventional weapons is likely to increase India's military advantage, thus providing an arms race in the region". Therefore, maintaining "minimum credible nuclear deterrence" would require Pakistan to review its nuclear policy. The government officials maintained that while Pakistan will continue to act with responsibility, avoiding an arms race, it will not remain oblivious to the imperative of maintaining "minimum credible nuclear deterrence". An unnamed official at the

Islamabad Policy Research Institute The Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI) is a think tank based in Islamabad, Pakistan. It was established in 1999. It is affiliated with the National Security Division (NSD) of the government of Pakistan. IPRI focuses on datafication, di ...

(IPRI) stated that "the nuclear weapons programme has been exclusively driven by security considerations to ensure the survival and very existence of the state". In 2012, Prime minister

Yousaf Raza Gillani Yusuf Raza Gilani (born 9 June 1952) is a Pakistani politician who served as the 16th prime minister of Pakistan from 2008 to 2012. He is currently serving as the Chairman of the Senate of Pakistan since 2024. Chairman Gilani served as the acti ...

stated the comprehensive policy and quoted: In 2010, a high ranking science minister of Pakistan publicly announced at the international conference on science after delegating foreign ambassadors and scientists from all over the world: "Our nuclear capability is purely for defensive purposes, first believing in peaceful co-existence and reconciliation and will always strive for peace and prosperity in our region".

References

Concept bibliography

Credited scholarly articles

* * {{Military doctrines of Pakistan History of the foreign relations of Pakistan Policies of Pakistan Nuclear strategy Nuclear weapons programme of Pakistan Continuity of government in Pakistan Military doctrines of Pakistan