Foresight is the ability to predict, or the action of predicting, what will happen or what is needed in the future. Studies suggest that much of
human
Humans (''Homo sapiens'') or modern humans are the most common and widespread species of primate, and the last surviving species of the genus ''Homo''. They are Hominidae, great apes characterized by their Prehistory of nakedness and clothing ...
thought is directed towards potential future events. Because of this, the nature and evolution of foresight is an important topic in
psychology
Psychology is the scientific study of mind and behavior. Its subject matter includes the behavior of humans and nonhumans, both consciousness, conscious and Unconscious mind, unconscious phenomena, and mental processes such as thoughts, feel ...
. Thinking about the future is studied under the label
prospection.
Neuroscientific,
developmental, and
cognitive
Cognition is the "mental action or process of acquiring knowledge and understanding through thought, experience, and the senses". It encompasses all aspects of intellectual functions and processes such as: perception, attention, thought, ...
studies have identified many similarities to the human ability to recall past
episodes
Episodes may refer to:
* Episode, a part of a dramatic work
* Episodes (TV series), ''Episodes'' (TV series), a British/American television sitcom which premiered in 2011
* Episodes (journal), ''Episodes'' (journal), a geological science journal
...
. ''
Science
Science is a systematic discipline that builds and organises knowledge in the form of testable hypotheses and predictions about the universe. Modern science is typically divided into twoor threemajor branches: the natural sciences, which stu ...
'' magazine selected evidence for such similarities as one of the top ten scientific breakthroughs of 2007. However, fundamental differences separate mentally travelling through time into the future (i.e., foresight) versus mentally travelling through time into the past (i.e., episodic memory).
Uses
Foresight has been classified as a
behaviour
Behavior (American English) or behaviour (British English) is the range of actions of Individual, individuals, organisms, systems or Artificial intelligence, artificial entities in some environment. These systems can include other systems or or ...
(covert and/or overt) in management. Review,
analysis
Analysis (: analyses) is the process of breaking a complex topic or substance into smaller parts in order to gain a better understanding of it. The technique has been applied in the study of mathematics and logic since before Aristotle (38 ...
, and
synthesis
Synthesis or synthesize may refer to:
Science Chemistry and biochemistry
*Chemical synthesis, the execution of chemical reactions to form a more complex molecule from chemical precursors
**Organic synthesis, the chemical synthesis of organi ...
of past definitions and usages of the foresight concept attempted to establish a generic definition, in order to make the concept measurable.
Specifically, foresight has been defined as: "Degree of analyzing present contingencies and degree of moving the analysis of present contingencies across time, and degree of analyzing a desired future state or states a degree ahead in time with regard to contingencies under control, as well as degree of analyzing courses of action a degree ahead in time to arrive at the desired future state."
Prediction markets
Prediction market
Prediction markets, also known as betting markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures or event derivatives, are open markets that enable the prediction of specific outcomes using financial incentives. They are exchange-traded mar ...
s are exchange-traded markets created for the purpose of trading on the possible outcomes of events. This information-revealing mechanism is credited to economists
Ludwig von Mises
Ludwig Heinrich Edler von Mises (; ; September 29, 1881 – October 10, 1973) was an Austrian-American political economist and philosopher of the Austrian school. Mises wrote and lectured extensively on the social contributions of classical l ...
and
Friedrich Hayek
Friedrich August von Hayek (8 May 1899 – 23 March 1992) was an Austrian-born British academic and philosopher. He is known for his contributions to political economy, political philosophy and intellectual history. Hayek shared the 1974 Nobe ...
. Prediction markets allow people to aggregate information and make predictions.
See also
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References
{{Virtues
Cognitive psychology
Management
Prediction