corporate finance Corporate finance is an area of finance that deals with the sources of funding, and the capital structure of businesses, the actions that managers take to increase the Value investing, value of the firm to the shareholders, and the tools and analy ...

, in the context of

discounted cash flow valuation Valuation using discounted cash flows (DCF valuation) is a method of estimating the current value of a company based on projected future cash flows adjusted for the time value of money. The cash flows are made up of those within the “explicit ...

, the forecast period is the time period during which explicitly forecast, individual yearly

cash flow Cash flow, in general, refers to payments made into or out of a business, project, or financial product. It can also refer more specifically to a real or virtual movement of money. *Cash flow, in its narrow sense, is a payment (in a currency), es ...

s are input to the valuation-formula. Cash flows after the forecast period are represented by a fixed number - the "terminal value" - determined using assumptions relating to the

sustainable Sustainability is a social goal for people to co-exist on Earth over a long period of time. Definitions of this term are disputed and have varied with literature, context, and time. Sustainability usually has three dimensions (or pillars): env ...

compound annual growth rate Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business, economics and investing term representing the mean annualized growth rate for compounding values over a given time period. CAGR smoothes the effect of volatility of periodic values that can render ...

or exit multiple. There are no fixed rules for determining the duration of the forecast period. However, choosing a forecast period of 10 years, for example, will not be meaningful when individual cash flows can only reasonably be modeled for four years; see Cashflow forecast. The number of forecasting years is therefore to be limited by the "meaningfulness" of the individual yearly cash flows ahead. Addressing this, there are three typical methods of determining the forecast period. #Based on company positioning: The forecast period corresponds to the years where an excess return is achievable. In the years chosen the company should expect to generate a return on new investments greater than its

cost of capital In economics and accounting, the cost of capital is the cost of a company's funds (both debt and equity), or from an investor's point of view is "the required rate of return on a portfolio company's existing securities". It is used to evaluate ne ...

. This will be based on its expected competitiveness, coupled with known

barriers to entry In theories of Competition (economics), competition in economics, a barrier to entry, or an economic barrier to entry, is a fixed cost that must be incurred by a new entrant, regardless of production or sales activities, into a Market (economics) ...

. See: Porter's five forces, a well known tool for analyzing the competition of a business; and for discussion re the economic argument here. #Based on exit strategy: The number of years after which an "exit" is planned. An exit can either be positive (merger, acquisition,

initial public offering An initial public offering (IPO) or stock launch is a public offering in which shares of a company are sold to institutional investors and usually also to retail (individual) investors. An IPO is typically underwritten by one or more investm ...

) or negative (

bankruptcy Bankruptcy is a legal process through which people or other entities who cannot repay debts to creditors may seek relief from some or all of their debts. In most jurisdictions, bankruptcy is imposed by a court order, often initiated by the deb ...

). This method is typically used by investors in

venture capital Venture capital (VC) is a form of private equity financing provided by firms or funds to start-up company, startup, early-stage, and emerging companies, that have been deemed to have high growth potential or that have demonstrated high growth in ...

and

private equity Private equity (PE) is stock in a private company that does not offer stock to the general public; instead it is offered to specialized investment funds and limited partnerships that take an active role in the management and structuring of the co ...

, planning a positive exit. See: ; . #Based on market characteristics: Determine a forecast period by choosing a number of years based on the characteristics of the market. Companies in established and well known markets are better suited towards longer forecasting periods than those opening up a new market, or

startup A startup or start-up is a company or project undertaken by an entrepreneur to seek, develop, and validate a scalable business model. While entrepreneurship includes all new businesses including self-employment and businesses that do not intend to ...

See also