''Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?'' is a 2005 book by Philip E. Tetlock. The book mentions how

expert An expert is somebody who has a broad and deep understanding and competence in terms of knowledge, skill and experience through practice and education in a particular field or area of study. Informally, an expert is someone widely recognized ...

s are often no better at making

prediction A prediction (Latin ''præ-'', "before," and ''dictum'', "something said") or forecast is a statement about a future event or about future data. Predictions are often, but not always, based upon experience or knowledge of forecasters. There ...

s than most other people, and how when they are wrong, they are rarely held accountable.

References

2005 non-fiction books American political books Futures projects Political science books Prediction Princeton University Press books {{polisci-book-stub