''Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?'' is a 2005 book by

Philip E. Tetlock Philip E. Tetlock (born 1954) is a Canadian-American political science writer, and is currently the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sc ...

. The book mentions how

expert An expert is somebody who has a broad and deep understanding and competence in terms of knowledge, skill and experience through practice and education in a particular field. Informally, an expert is someone widely recognized as a reliable s ...

s are often no better at making

prediction A prediction (Latin ''præ-'', "before," and ''dicere'', "to say"), or forecast, is a statement about a future event or data. They are often, but not always, based upon experience or knowledge. There is no universal agreement about the exact ...

s than most other people, and how when they are wrong, they are rarely held accountable.

References

2005 non-fiction books American political books Political science books Princeton University Press books {{polisci-book-stub