Erosion prediction is the process of predicting where erosion may happen in the future using data. There are dozens of erosion prediction

models A model is an informative representation of an object, person, or system. The term originally denoted the plans of a building in late 16th-century English, and derived via French and Italian ultimately from Latin , . Models can be divided int ...

. Some models focus on long-term (natural or

geological Geology (). is a branch of natural science concerned with the Earth and other astronomical objects, the rocks of which they are composed, and the processes by which they change over time. Modern geology significantly overlaps all other Earth s ...

)

erosion Erosion is the action of surface processes (such as Surface runoff, water flow or wind) that removes soil, Rock (geology), rock, or dissolved material from one location on the Earth's crust#Crust, Earth's crust and then sediment transport, tran ...

, as a component of landscape evolution. However, many erosion models were developed to quantify the effects of accelerated soil erosion i.e.

soil Soil, also commonly referred to as earth, is a mixture of organic matter, minerals, gases, water, and organisms that together support the life of plants and soil organisms. Some scientific definitions distinguish dirt from ''soil'' by re ...

erosion as influenced by human activity. Most soil erosion models consider only soil erosion by water, however a few aim to predict

wind erosion Aeolian processes, also spelled eolian, pertain to wind activity in the study of geology and weather and specifically to the wind's ability to shape the surface of the Earth (or other planets). Winds may erode, transport, and deposit material ...

. Models which consider

tillage erosion Tillage erosion is a form of soil erosion occurring in cultivated fields due to the movement of soil by tillage. There is growing evidence that tillage erosion is a major soil erosion process in agricultural lands, surpassing water and wind erosio ...

are rare. Also soil erosion models have been more commonly developed for use on

agricultural Agriculture encompasses crop and livestock production, aquaculture, and forestry for food and non-food products. Agriculture was a key factor in the rise of sedentary human civilization, whereby farming of domesticated species created f ...

landscapes, rather than on naturally vegetated areas (such as

rangeland Rangelands are grasslands, shrublands, woodlands, wetlands, and deserts that are grazed by domestic livestock or wild animals. Types of rangelands include tallgrass and shortgrass prairies, desert grasslands and shrublands, woodlands, savanna ...

forests A forest is an ecosystem characterized by a dense community of trees. Hundreds of definitions of forest are used throughout the world, incorporating factors such as tree density, tree height, land use, legal standing, and ecological functio ...

). A few erosion models focus on erosion on mined areas. The aim of the majority of soil erosion models is to predict

average In colloquial, ordinary language, an average is a single number or value that best represents a set of data. The type of average taken as most typically representative of a list of numbers is the arithmetic mean the sum of the numbers divided by ...

rates Rate or rates may refer to: Finance * Rate (company), an American residential mortgage company formerly known as Guaranteed Rate * Rates (tax), a type of taxation system in the United Kingdom used to fund local government * Exchange rate, rate ...

(often an annual average rate) of soil loss from an area such as a

plot Plot or Plotting may refer to: Art, media and entertainment * Plot (narrative), the connected story elements of a piece of fiction Music * ''The Plot'' (album), a 1976 album by jazz trumpeter Enrico Rava * The Plot (band), a band formed in 2003 ...

, a

field Field may refer to: Expanses of open ground * Field (agriculture), an area of land used for agricultural purposes * Airfield, an aerodrome that lacks the infrastructure of an airport * Battlefield * Lawn, an area of mowed grass * Meadow, a grass ...

or a catchment/watershed under various

land management Land management is the process of managing the land use, use and development of land resources. Those resources are used for a variety of purposes for example agriculture, forestry, water resource management, Human settlement, human settlements an ...

techniques. Some erosion models are purely

statistical Statistics (from German language, German: ', "description of a State (polity), state, a country") is the discipline that concerns the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data. In applying statistics to a s ...

, others more mechanistic (or physically based). Two of the more widely used soil erosion models in

North America North America is a continent in the Northern Hemisphere, Northern and Western Hemisphere, Western hemispheres. North America is bordered to the north by the Arctic Ocean, to the east by the Atlantic Ocean, to the southeast by South Ameri ...

are the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and the Water Erosion Prediction Project erosion model (WEPP). Much of the mineland erosion literature is solely focused on fitting or improving RUSLE parameters. Few soil erosion models consider

gully A gully is a landform A landform is a land feature on the solid surface of the Earth or other planetary body. They may be natural or may be anthropogenic (caused or influenced by human activity). Landforms together make up a given ter ...

erosion, mostly due to difficulties in modelling these large erosional features. Several studies have evaluated the ability of soil erosion models to realistically predict measured rates of erosion, mainly on agricultural landscapes. There is often a wide discrepancy between predicted and observed erosion rates. Thus soil erosion models are still better as research tools than as public policy and regulatory instruments or for prescriptive design measures for constructed landforms. However soil erosion models may provide useful guidance for the design engineer if adequately calibrated and verified for local conditions and if the design accounts for the uncertainty. Most erosion modelling is applied to existing sites of known

topography Topography is the study of the forms and features of land surfaces. The topography of an area may refer to the landforms and features themselves, or a description or depiction in maps. Topography is a field of geoscience and planetary sci ...

and material properties to guide land management activities. Designers of constructed landforms, however, have considerable control over the topography, cover soil placement, initial

revegetation Revegetation is the process of replanting and rebuilding the soil of disturbed land. This may be a natural process produced by plant colonization and succession, manmade rewilding projects, accelerated process designed to repair damage to a la ...

, and to a lesser extent the substrate properties – flexibility that is generally uneconomical for farmers and ranchers and most users of erosion models. On the other hand, miners have little input into post-closure land use practices and management. Methods to estimate erosion rates include: * purely statistical models * subjectively determined erosion rates using expert judgement combined with a database of erosion rates of natural and reclaimed sites (natural and industrial analogs) * surveying of existing erosional or depositional features of known age (or as determined by dating of deposits) to determine average erosion rates. Analysis of historical aerial photographs is often employed. * site-specific empirical models that relate slope,

watershed Watershed may refer to: Hydrology * Drainage divide, the line that separates neighbouring drainage basins * Drainage basin, an area of land where surface water converges (North American usage) Music * Watershed Music Festival, an annual country ...

size, and

rainfall Rain is a form of precipitation where water droplets that have condensed from atmospheric water vapor fall under gravity. Rain is a major component of the water cycle and is responsible for depositing most of the fresh water on the Earth. ...

* empirical and semi-empirical or deterministic models based on laboratory and field

flume A flume is a human-made channel for water, in the form of an open declined gravity chute whose walls are raised above the surrounding terrain, in contrast to a trench or ditch. Flumes are not to be confused with aqueducts, which are built to t ...

measurements of erosion under simulated rainfall or flow conditions * physically based gully erosion models * landform and landscape scale models, often

GIS A geographic information system (GIS) consists of integrated computer hardware and software that store, manage, analyze, edit, output, and visualize geographic data. Much of this often happens within a spatial database; however, this is not ...

-based, that apply erosion mechanics or statistical relationships to predict changes in topography and erosion rates * sediment-budget models based on watershed monitoring.

References

*Jetten V. and Favis-Mortlock, D.T. 2006. Modelling Soil Erosion in Europe. In, Boardman, J. and Poesen, J. (eds) ''Soil Erosion In Europe''. Wiley. *McKenna, G.T., 2002. ''Sustainable mine reclamation and landscape engineering''. PhD Thesis, University of Alberta, Edmonton, 661 pp. {{refend

External links

"About the Universal Soil Loss Equation"
- US Department of Agriculture Soil erosion Geomorphology models

See also

References

External links