Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation
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The Monsoon of South Asia is among several geographically distributed global
monsoon A monsoon () is traditionally a seasonal reversing wind accompanied by corresponding changes in precipitation but is now used to describe seasonal changes in Atmosphere of Earth, atmospheric circulation and precipitation associated with annu ...
s. It affects the
Indian subcontinent The Indian subcontinent is a physiographic region of Asia below the Himalayas which projects into the Indian Ocean between the Bay of Bengal to the east and the Arabian Sea to the west. It is now divided between Bangladesh, India, and Pakista ...
, where it is one of the oldest and most anticipated weather phenomena and an economically important pattern every year from June through September, but it is only partly understood and notoriously difficult to predict. Several theories have been proposed to explain the origin, process, strength, variability, distribution, and general vagaries of the monsoon, but understanding and predictability are still evolving. The unique geographical features of the Indian subcontinent, along with associated atmospheric, oceanic, and
geographical Geography (from Ancient Greek ; combining 'Earth' and 'write', literally 'Earth writing') is the study of the lands, features, inhabitants, and phenomena of Earth. Geography is an all-encompassing discipline that seeks an understanding o ...
factors, influence the behavior of the monsoon. Because of its effect on agriculture, on flora and fauna, and on the climates of nations such as
Bangladesh Bangladesh, officially the People's Republic of Bangladesh, is a country in South Asia. It is the List of countries and dependencies by population, eighth-most populous country in the world and among the List of countries and dependencies by ...
,
Bhutan Bhutan, officially the Kingdom of Bhutan, is a landlocked country in South Asia, in the Eastern Himalayas between China to the north and northwest and India to the south and southeast. With a population of over 727,145 and a territory of , ...
,
India India, officially the Republic of India, is a country in South Asia. It is the List of countries and dependencies by area, seventh-largest country by area; the List of countries by population (United Nations), most populous country since ...
,
Nepal Nepal, officially the Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal, is a landlocked country in South Asia. It is mainly situated in the Himalayas, but also includes parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plain. It borders the Tibet Autonomous Region of China Ch ...
,
Pakistan Pakistan, officially the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, is a country in South Asia. It is the List of countries and dependencies by population, fifth-most populous country, with a population of over 241.5 million, having the Islam by country# ...
, and
Sri Lanka Sri Lanka, officially the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka, also known historically as Ceylon, is an island country in South Asia. It lies in the Indian Ocean, southwest of the Bay of Bengal, separated from the Indian subcontinent, ...
– among other economic, social, and environmental effects – the monsoon is one of the most anticipated, tracked, and studied weather phenomena in the region. It has a significant effect on the overall well-being of residents and has even been dubbed the "real finance minister of India".


Definition

The word ''monsoon'', derived from the Arabic word موسم (''mawsim'') meaning "season", colloquially refers to a season of greatly intensified precipitation that occurs in some coastal regions in the tropics and subtropics. Scientifically however, while generally defined as a system of winds characterized by a seasonal reversal of direction, there are several more detailed definitions used by various meteorological and climatological sources. Some examples: * The
American Meteorological Society The American Meteorological Society (AMS) is a scientific and professional organization in the United States promoting and disseminating information about the atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrologic sciences. Its mission is to advance the atmosph ...
calls it a name for seasonal winds, first applied to the winds blowing over the
Arabian Sea The Arabian Sea () is a region of sea in the northern Indian Ocean, bounded on the west by the Arabian Peninsula, Gulf of Aden and Guardafui Channel, on the northwest by Gulf of Oman and Iran, on the north by Pakistan, on the east by India, and ...
from the northeast for six months and from the southwest for six months. The term has since been extended to similar winds in other parts of the world. * The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an intergovernmental body of the United Nations. Its job is to "provide governments at all levels with scientific information that they can use to develop climate policies". The World Met ...
(IPCC) describes a monsoon as a tropical and subtropical seasonal reversal in both surface winds and associated
precipitation In meteorology, precipitation is any product of the condensation of atmospheric water vapor that falls from clouds due to gravitational pull. The main forms of precipitation include drizzle, rain, rain and snow mixed ("sleet" in Commonwe ...
, caused by differential heating between a continental-scale land mass and the adjacent ocean. * The
India Meteorological Department India Meteorological Department (IMD) is an Indian agency of the Ministry of Earth Sciences of the Government of India. It is the principal agency responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasting and seismology. IMD is headquar ...
defines it as the seasonal reversal of the direction of winds along the shores of the Indian Ocean, especially in the Arabian Sea, which blow from the southwest for half of the year and from the northeast for the other half. * Colin Stokes Ramage, in ''Monsoon Meteorology'', defines the monsoon as a seasonal reversing wind accompanied by corresponding changes in precipitation. Thus, similar seasonal precipitation patterns in other parts of the world are not always true monsoons.


Background

The first people to observe the combined pattern of the monsoons' branches over different regions of South Asia were sailors in the Arabian Sea who traveled between Africa, India, and Southeast Asia. The monsoon can be categorized into two ''branches'' based on their spread over the subcontinent: * Arabian Sea branch *
Bay of Bengal The Bay of Bengal is the northeastern part of the Indian Ocean. Geographically it is positioned between the Indian subcontinent and the Mainland Southeast Asia, Indochinese peninsula, located below the Bengal region. Many South Asian and Southe ...
branch Alternatively, it can be categorized into two ''segments'' based on the direction of rain-bearing winds: * Southwest (SW) monsoon * Northeast (NE) monsoonThe name of the wind is based on the direction that it blows ''from''. Southwest winds blow onto the land from the southwest. Northeast winds flow from the northeast toward the southwest, onto the land. Based on the time of year that these winds bring rain to India, the monsoon can also be categorized into two ''periods'': * Summer monsoon (May to September) * Winter monsoon (October to November) The complexity of the monsoon of South Asia is not completely understood, making it difficult to accurately predict the quantity, timing, and geographic distribution of the accompanying precipitation. These are the most monitored components of the monsoon, and they determine the water availability in India for any given year.


Changes of the Monsoon

Monsoons typically occur in tropical areas. One area that monsoons impact greatly is India. In India monsoons create an entire season in which the winds reverse completely. The rainfall is a result of the convergence of wind flow from the
Bay of Bengal The Bay of Bengal is the northeastern part of the Indian Ocean. Geographically it is positioned between the Indian subcontinent and the Mainland Southeast Asia, Indochinese peninsula, located below the Bengal region. Many South Asian and Southe ...
and reverse winds from the
South China Sea The South China Sea is a marginal sea of the Western Pacific Ocean. It is bounded in the north by South China, in the west by the Indochinese Peninsula, in the east by the islands of Taiwan island, Taiwan and northwestern Philippines (mainly Luz ...
. The onset of the monsoon occurs over the Bay of Bengal in May, arriving at the Indian Peninsula by June, and then the winds move towards the
South China Sea The South China Sea is a marginal sea of the Western Pacific Ocean. It is bounded in the north by South China, in the west by the Indochinese Peninsula, in the east by the islands of Taiwan island, Taiwan and northwestern Philippines (mainly Luz ...
.


Effect of geographical relief features

Although the southwest and northeast monsoon winds are seasonally reversible, they do cause precipitation on their own. Two factors are essential for rain formation: # Moisture-laden winds # Droplet formation Additionally, one of the causes of rain must happen. In the case of the monsoon, the cause is primarily orographic, due to the presence of highlands in the path of the winds. Orographic barriers force wind to rise. Precipitation then occurs on the windward side of the highlands because of adiabatic cooling and condensation of the moist rising air. The unique geographic relief features of the Indian subcontinent come into play in allowing all of the above factors to occur simultaneously. The relevant features in explaining the monsoon mechanism are as follows: # The presence of abundant water bodies around the subcontinent: the
Arabian Sea The Arabian Sea () is a region of sea in the northern Indian Ocean, bounded on the west by the Arabian Peninsula, Gulf of Aden and Guardafui Channel, on the northwest by Gulf of Oman and Iran, on the north by Pakistan, on the east by India, and ...
,
Bay of Bengal The Bay of Bengal is the northeastern part of the Indian Ocean. Geographically it is positioned between the Indian subcontinent and the Mainland Southeast Asia, Indochinese peninsula, located below the Bengal region. Many South Asian and Southe ...
, and Indian Ocean. These help moisture accumulate in the winds during the hot season. # The presence of abundant highlands like the Western Ghats and the
Himalayas The Himalayas, or Himalaya ( ), is a mountain range in Asia, separating the plains of the Indian subcontinent from the Tibetan Plateau. The range has some of the Earth's highest peaks, including the highest, Mount Everest. More than list of h ...
right across the path of the southwest monsoon winds. These are the main cause of the substantial orographic precipitation throughout the subcontinent.The Aravalli Mountains also lie in the path of the southwest monsoon but do not result in much precipitation because they are in the direction of the path of the southwest winds and not ''across'' them, causing no orographic lift of the winds. ## The Western Ghats are the first highlands of India that the southwest monsoon winds encounter.Other major highlands, like the
Cardamom Hills The Cardamom Hills or Yela Mala are mountain range of southern India and part of the southern Western Ghats located in Idukki district, Kerala, India. Their name comes from the cardamom spice grown in much of the hills' cool elevation, w ...
,
Anaimalai Hills The Anamala or Anaimalai, also known as the Elephant Mountains, are a range of mountains in the southern Western Ghats of central Kerala ( Idukki district, Ernakulam district, Palakkad district, Thrissur district) and span the border of wester ...
, and Nilgiri Mountains, that play active roles in the monsoon are considered major extensions of the Western Ghats and are thus not discussed separately.
The Western Ghats rise abruptly from the Western Coastal Plains of the subcontinent, making effective orographic barriers for the monsoon winds. ## The Himalayas play more than the role of orographic barriers for the monsoon. They also help confine it to the subcontinent. Without them, the southwest monsoon winds would blow right over the Indian subcontinent into
Tibet Tibet (; ''Böd''; ), or Greater Tibet, is a region in the western part of East Asia, covering much of the Tibetan Plateau and spanning about . It is the homeland of the Tibetan people. Also resident on the plateau are other ethnic groups s ...
,
Afghanistan Afghanistan, officially the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, is a landlocked country located at the crossroads of Central Asia and South Asia. It is bordered by Pakistan to the Durand Line, east and south, Iran to the Afghanistan–Iran borde ...
, and Russia without causing any rain.First, the Himalayas serve as orographic barriers to the southwest monsoon winds. Second, they help confine the winds to the subcontinent, hampering their northward progress. Third, they contribute to the convergence of the Bay of Bengal branch and Arabian Sea branch of the southwest monsoon winds, increasing the intensity of precipitation over the northern part of the subcontinent. Fourth, they are a major factor in the ''bursting'' of the monsoon under the jet stream theory. Fifth, they help determine the direction of the Bay of Bengal branch of the northeast monsoon. Their role is still a matter of active study, and understanding of them is evolving regularly. ## For the northeast monsoon, the highlands of the
Eastern Ghats The Eastern Ghats is a mountain range that stretches along the East Coast of India, eastern coast of the Indian peninsula. Covering an area of , it traverses the states and union territories of India, states of Odisha, Telangana, Andhra Prade ...
play the role of orographic barrier. Image:India southwest summer monsoon onset map en.svg, Pink arrow: Southwest monsoon wind direction; green arrow: northeast monsoon wind direction. Image:Steigungsregen.jpg, Orographic precipitation. Image:India Geographic Map.jpg, Geographical features of the Indian subcontinent. Image:Dust and Pollution Rise Before the Monsoon.jpg, Daytime scene showing the pre-monsoon air over India. File:1991 to 2010 rainfall totals during monsoon India.png, Recent trends in average annual precipitation from monsoons.


Features of monsoon rains

There are some unique features of the rains that the monsoon brings to the Indian subcontinent.


''"Bursting"''

''Bursting of monsoon'' refers to the sudden change in weather conditions in India (typically from hot and dry weather to wet and humid weather during the southwest monsoon), characterized by an abrupt rise in the mean daily rainfall. Similarly, the burst of the northeast monsoon refers to an abrupt increase in the mean daily rainfall over the affected regions.


Rain variability (''"vagaries"'')

One of the most commonly used words to describe the erratic nature of the monsoon is "vagaries", used in newspapers, magazines, books,
web portal A web portal is a specially designed website that brings information from diverse sources, like emails, online forums and search engines, together in a uniform way. Usually, each information source gets its dedicated area on the page for displayin ...
s to
insurance Insurance is a means of protection from financial loss in which, in exchange for a fee, a party agrees to compensate another party in the event of a certain loss, damage, or injury. It is a form of risk management, primarily used to protect ...
plans, and India's budget discussions. In some years, it rains too much, causing floods in parts of India; in others, it rains too little or not at all, causing droughts. In some years, the rain quantity is sufficient but its timing arbitrary. Sometimes, despite average annual rainfall, the daily distribution or geographic distribution of the rain is substantially skewed. In the recent past, rainfall variability in short time periods (about a week) were attributed to desert dust over the Arabian Sea and Western Asia.


Ideal and normal monsoon rains

Normally, the southwest monsoon can be expected to "burst" onto the western coast of India (near
Thiruvananthapuram Thiruvananthapuram ( ), also known as Trivandrum, is the Capital city, capital city of the Indian state of Kerala. As of 2011, the Thiruvananthapuram Municipal Corporation had a population of 957,730 over an area of 214.86 sq. km, making it the ...
) at the beginning of June and to cover the entire country by mid-July. Its withdrawal from India typically starts at the beginning of September and finishes by the beginning of October. The northeast monsoon usually "bursts" around 20 October and lasts for about 50 days before withdrawing. However, a rainy monsoon is not necessarily a normal monsoon – that is, one that performs close to statistical averages calculated over a long period. A normal monsoon is generally accepted to be one involving close to the ''average quantity'' of precipitation over all the geographical locations under its influence (''mean spatial distribution'') and over the entire expected time period (''mean temporal distribution''). Additionally, the ''arrival date'' and the ''departure date'' of both the southwest and northeast monsoon should be close to the mean dates. The exact criteria for a normal monsoon are defined by the
India Meteorological Department India Meteorological Department (IMD) is an Indian agency of the Ministry of Earth Sciences of the Government of India. It is the principal agency responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasting and seismology. IMD is headquar ...
with calculations for the mean and standard deviation of each of these variables.


Theories for mechanism of monsoon

Theories of the mechanism of the monsoon primarily try to explain the reasons for the seasonal reversal of winds and the timing of their reversal.


Traditional theory

Because of differences in the
specific heat capacity In thermodynamics, the specific heat capacity (symbol ) of a substance is the amount of heat that must be added to one unit of mass of the substance in order to cause an increase of one unit in temperature. It is also referred to as massic heat ...
of land and water, continents heat up faster than seas. Consequently, the air above coastal lands heats up faster than the air above seas. These create areas of low air pressure above coastal lands compared with pressure over the seas, causing winds to flow from the seas onto the neighboring lands. This is known as
sea breeze A sea breeze or onshore breeze is a wind that blows in the afternoon from a large body of water toward or onto a landmass. By contrast, a land breeze or offshore breeze is a wind that blows in the night from a landmass toward or onto a large ...
.


Process of monsoon creation

Also known as the ''thermal theory'' or the ''differential heating of sea and land theory'', the traditional theory portrays the monsoon as a large-scale
sea breeze A sea breeze or onshore breeze is a wind that blows in the afternoon from a large body of water toward or onto a landmass. By contrast, a land breeze or offshore breeze is a wind that blows in the night from a landmass toward or onto a large ...
. It states that during the hot subtropical summers, the massive landmass of the Indian Peninsula heats up at a different rate than the surrounding seas, resulting in a
pressure gradient In hydrodynamics and hydrostatics, the pressure gradient (typically of air but more generally of any fluid) is a physical quantity that describes in which direction and at what rate the pressure increases the most rapidly around a particular locat ...
from south to north. This causes the flow of moisture-laden winds from sea to land. On reaching land, these winds rise because of the geographical relief, cooling
adiabatically Adiabatic (from ''Gr.'' ἀ ''negative'' + διάβασις ''passage; transference'') refers to any process that occurs without heat transfer. This concept is used in many areas of physics and engineering. Notable examples are listed below. A ...
and leading to orographic rains. This is the ''southwest monsoon''. The reverse happens during the winter, when the land is colder than the sea, establishing a pressure gradient from land to sea. This causes the winds to blow over the Indian subcontinent toward the Indian Ocean in a northeasterly direction, causing the ''northeast monsoon''. Because the southwest monsoon flows from sea to land, it carries more moisture, and therefore causes more rain, than the northeast monsoon. Only part of the northeast monsoon passing over the Bay of Bengal picks up moisture, causing rain in
Andhra Pradesh Andhra Pradesh (ISO 15919, ISO: , , AP) is a States and union territories of India, state on the East Coast of India, east coast of southern India. It is the List of states and union territories of India by area, seventh-largest state and th ...
and
Tamil Nadu Tamil Nadu (; , TN) is the southernmost States and union territories of India, state of India. The List of states and union territories of India by area, tenth largest Indian state by area and the List of states and union territories of Indi ...
during the winter months. However, many meteorologists argue that the monsoon is not a local phenomenon as explained by the traditional theory, but a general weather phenomenon along the entire tropical zone of
Earth Earth is the third planet from the Sun and the only astronomical object known to Planetary habitability, harbor life. This is enabled by Earth being an ocean world, the only one in the Solar System sustaining liquid surface water. Almost all ...
. This criticism does not deny the role of differential heating of sea and land in generating monsoon winds, but casts it as one of several factors rather than the only one.


Dynamic theory

The
prevailing winds In meteorology, prevailing wind in a region of the Earth's surface is a surface wind that blows predominantly from a particular Wind direction, direction. The dominant winds are the trends in direction of wind with the highest speed over a partic ...
of the
atmospheric circulation Atmospheric circulation is the large-scale movement of Atmosphere of Earth, air and together with ocean circulation is the means by which thermal energy is redistributed on the surface of the Earth. The Earth's atmospheric circulation varies fro ...
arise because of the difference in pressure at various latitudes and act as means for distribution of
thermal energy The term "thermal energy" is often used ambiguously in physics and engineering. It can denote several different physical concepts, including: * Internal energy: The energy contained within a body of matter or radiation, excluding the potential en ...
on the planet. This pressure difference is because of the differences in
solar insolation Solar irradiance is the power per unit area ( surface power density) received from the Sun in the form of electromagnetic radiation in the wavelength range of the measuring instrument. Solar irradiance is measured in watts per square metre ...
received at different latitudes and the resulting uneven heating of the planet. Alternating belts of high pressure and low pressure develop along the equator, the two
tropics The tropics are the regions of Earth surrounding the equator, where the sun may shine directly overhead. This contrasts with the temperate or polar regions of Earth, where the Sun can never be directly overhead. This is because of Earth's ax ...
, the
Arctic Circle The Arctic Circle is one of the two polar circles, and the northernmost of the five major circle of latitude, circles of latitude as shown on maps of Earth at about 66° 34' N. Its southern counterpart is the Antarctic Circle. The Arctic Circl ...
and
Antarctic Circle The Antarctic Circle is the most southerly of the five major circles of latitude that mark maps of Earth. The region south of this circle is known as the Antarctic, and the zone immediately to the north is called the Southern Temperate Zone. So ...
, and the two
polar region The polar regions, also called the frigid zones or polar zones, of Earth are Earth's polar ice caps, the regions of the planet that surround its geographical poles (the North and South Poles), lying within the polar circles. These high latitu ...
s, giving rise to the
trade winds The trade winds or easterlies are permanent east-to-west prevailing winds that flow in the Earth's equatorial region. The trade winds blow mainly from the northeast in the Northern Hemisphere and from the southeast in the Southern Hemisphere ...
, the
westerlies The westerlies, anti-trades, or prevailing westerlies, are prevailing winds from the west toward the east in the middle latitudes between 30 and 60 degrees latitude. They originate from the high-pressure areas in the horse latitudes (about ...
, and the polar easterlies. However, geophysical factors like
Earth's orbit Earth orbits the Sun at an astronomical unit, average distance of , or 8.317 light-second, light-minutes, in a retrograde and prograde motion, counterclockwise direction as viewed from above the Northern Hemisphere. One complete orbit takes & ...
, its rotation, and its
axial tilt In astronomy, axial tilt, also known as obliquity, is the angle between an object's rotational axis and its orbital axis, which is the line perpendicular to its orbital plane; equivalently, it is the angle between its equatorial plane and orbita ...
cause these belts to shift gradually north and south, following the Sun's seasonal shifts.


Process of monsoon creation

The ''dynamic theory'' explains the monsoon on the basis of the annual shifts in the position of global belts of pressure and winds. According to this theory, the monsoon is a result of the shift of the
Intertropical Convergence Zone The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ , or ICZ), known by sailors as the doldrums or the calms because of its monotonous windless weather, is the area where the northeast and the southeast trade winds converge. It encircles Earth near the t ...
(ITCZ) under the influence of the vertical sun. Though the mean position of the ITCZ is taken as the equator, it shifts north and south with the migration of the vertical sun toward the Tropics of
Cancer Cancer is a group of diseases involving Cell growth#Disorders, abnormal cell growth with the potential to Invasion (cancer), invade or Metastasis, spread to other parts of the body. These contrast with benign tumors, which do not spread. Po ...
and Capricorn during the summer of the respective hemispheres (Northern and Southern Hemisphere). As such, during the northern summer (May and June), the ITCZ moves north, along with the vertical sun, toward the Tropic of Cancer. The ITCZ, as the zone of lowest pressure in the tropical region, is the target destination for the
trade wind The trade winds or easterlies are permanent east-to-west prevailing winds that flow in the Earth's equatorial region. The trade winds blow mainly from the northeast in the Northern Hemisphere and from the southeast in the Southern Hemisphere, ...
s of both hemispheres. Consequently, with the ITCZ at the Tropic of Cancer, the southeast trade winds of the Southern Hemisphere have to cross the equator to reach it.When the southeast trade winds cross the equator, they are perceived in the Northern Hemisphere as equatorial westerlies because they seem to blow from the equator toward the Tropic of Cancer. Similarly, when the ITCZ is at the Tropic of Cancer, the northeast trade winds are confined to the area north of the Tropic of Cancer. However, because of the
Coriolis effect In physics, the Coriolis force is a pseudo force that acts on objects in motion within a frame of reference that rotates with respect to an inertial frame. In a reference frame with clockwise rotation, the force acts to the left of the moti ...
(which causes winds in the Northern Hemisphere to turn right, whereas winds in the Southern Hemisphere turn left), these southeast trade winds are deflected east in the Northern Hemisphere, transforming into southwest trades.Change of direction or origin of winds alters their nomenclature as noted above. These pick up moisture while traveling from sea to land and cause orographic rain once they hit the highlands of the Indian Peninsula. This results in the southwest monsoon. The dynamic theory explains the monsoon as a global weather phenomenon rather than just a local one. And when coupled with the traditional theory (based on the heating of sea and land), it enhances the explanation of the varying intensity of monsoon precipitation along the coastal regions with orographic barriers.


Jet stream theory

This theory tries to explain the establishment of the northeast and southwest monsoons, as well as unique features like "bursting" and variability. The jet streams are systems of upper-air westerlies. They give rise to slowly moving upper-air waves, with 250-
knot A knot is an intentional complication in Rope, cordage which may be practical or decorative, or both. Practical knots are classified by function, including List of hitch knots, hitches, List of bend knots, bends, List of loop knots, loop knots, ...
winds in some air streams. First observed by World War II pilots, they develop just below the
tropopause The tropopause is the atmospheric boundary that demarcates the lowest two layers of the atmosphere of Earth – the troposphere and stratosphere – which occurs approximately above the equatorial regions, and approximately above the polar regi ...
over areas of steep pressure gradient on the surface. The main types are the ''polar jets'', the ''subtropical westerly jets'', and the less common ''tropical easterly jets''. They follow the principle of
geostrophic wind In atmospheric science, geostrophic flow () is the theoretical wind that would result from an exact balance between the Coriolis force and the pressure gradient force. This condition is called '' geostrophic equilibrium'' or ''geostrophic balanc ...
s.Geostrophic winds blow parallel to the isobars and keep low-pressure zones to their left in the Northern Hemisphere and to their right in the Southern Hemisphere. The reversal is a result of the
Coriolis effect In physics, the Coriolis force is a pseudo force that acts on objects in motion within a frame of reference that rotates with respect to an inertial frame. In a reference frame with clockwise rotation, the force acts to the left of the moti ...
.


Process of monsoon creation

Over India, a subtropical westerly jet develops in the winter season and is replaced by the tropical easterly jet in the summer season. The high temperature during the summer over the
Tibetan Plateau The Tibetan Plateau, also known as the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau or Qingzang Plateau, is a vast elevated plateau located at the intersection of Central Asia, Central, South Asia, South, and East Asia. Geographically, it is located to the north of H ...
, as well as over Central Asia in general, is believed to be the critical factor leading to the formation of the tropical easterly jet over India. The mechanism affecting the monsoon is that the westerly jet causes high pressure over northern parts of the subcontinent during the winter. This results in the north-to-south flow of the winds in the form of the northeast monsoon. With the northward shift of the vertical sun, this jet shifts north, too. The intense heat over the Tibetan Plateau, coupled with associated terrain features like the high altitude of the plateau, generate the tropical easterly jet over central India. This jet creates a low-pressure zone over the northern Indian plains, influencing the wind flow toward these plains and assisting the development of the southwest monsoon.


Theories for "bursting"

The "bursting" of the monsoon is primarily explained by the jet stream theory and the dynamic theory.


Dynamic theory

According to this theory, during the summer months in the Northern Hemisphere, the ITCZ shifts north, pulling the southwest monsoon winds onto the land from the sea. However, the huge landmass of the Himalayas restricts the low-pressure zone onto the Himalayas themselves. It is only when the Tibetan Plateau heats up significantly more than the Himalayas that the ITCZ rises abruptly and swiftly shifts north, leading to the bursting of monsoon rains over the Indian subcontinent. The reverse shift takes place for the northeast monsoon winds, leading to a second, minor burst of rainfall over the eastern Indian Peninsula during the Northern Hemisphere winter months.


Jet stream theory

According to this theory, the onset of the southwest monsoon is driven by the shift of the subtropical westerly jet north from over the plains of India toward the Tibetan Plateau. This shift is due to the intense heating of the plateau during the summer months. The northward shift is not a slow and gradual process, as expected for most changes in weather pattern. The primary cause is believed to be the height of the Himalayas. As the Tibetan Plateau heats up, the low pressure created over it pulls the westerly jet north. Because of the lofty Himalayas, the westerly jet's movement is inhibited. But with continuous dropping pressure, sufficient force is created for the movement of the westerly jet across the Himalayas after a significant period. As such, the shift of the jet is sudden and abrupt, causing the bursting of southwest monsoon rains onto the Indian plains. The reverse shift happens for the northeast monsoon.


Theories for monsoon variability


The jet stream effect

The jet stream theory also explains the variability in timing and strength of the monsoon. Timing: A timely northward shift of the subtropical westerly jet at the beginning of summer is critical to the onset of the southwest monsoon over India. If the shift is delayed, so is the southwest monsoon. An early shift results in an early monsoon.
Strength: The strength of the southwest monsoon is determined by the strength of the easterly tropical jet over central India. A strong easterly tropical jet results in a strong southwest monsoon over central India, and a weak jet results in a weak monsoon.


El Niño–Southern Oscillation effect

''
El Niño EL, El or el may refer to: Arts and entertainment Fictional entities * El, a character from the manga series ''Shugo Chara!'' by Peach-Pit * Eleven (''Stranger Things'') (El), a fictional character in the TV series ''Stranger Things'' * El, fami ...
'' is a warm ocean current originating along the coast of
Peru Peru, officially the Republic of Peru, is a country in western South America. It is bordered in the north by Ecuador and Colombia, in the east by Brazil, in the southeast by Bolivia, in the south by Chile, and in the south and west by the Pac ...
that replaces the usual cold
Humboldt Current The Humboldt Current, also called the Peru Current, is a cold, low-salinity ocean current that flows north along the western coast of South America.Montecino, Vivian, and Carina B. Lange. "The Humboldt Current System: Ecosystem components and pro ...
. The warm surface water moving toward the coast of Peru with El Niño is pushed west by the trade winds, thereby raising the temperature of the southern Pacific Ocean. The reverse condition is known as
La Niña LA most frequently refers to Los Angeles, the second most populous city in the United States of America. La, LA, or L.A. may also refer to: Arts and entertainment Music *La (musical note), or A, the sixth note *"L.A.", a song by Elliott Smit ...
. ''Southern Oscillation'', a phenomenon first observed by Sir Gilbert Walker, director general of observatories in India, refers to the seesaw relationship of atmospheric pressures between
Tahiti Tahiti (; Tahitian language, Tahitian , ; ) is the largest island of the Windward Islands (Society Islands), Windward group of the Society Islands in French Polynesia, an overseas collectivity of France. It is located in the central part of t ...
and Darwin, Australia. Walker noticed that when pressure was high in Tahiti, it was low in Darwin, and vice versa. A ''Southern Oscillation Index'' (SOI), based on the pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin, has been formulated by the
Bureau of Meteorology The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM or BoM) is an executive agency of the Government of Australia, Australian Government that is responsible for providing Weather forecasting, weather forecasts and Meteorology, meteorological services to Australia a ...
(Australia) to measure the strength of the oscillation. Walker noticed that the quantity of rainfall in the Indian subcontinent was often negligible in years of high pressure over Darwin (and low pressure over Tahiti). Conversely, low pressure over Darwin bodes well for precipitation quantity in India. Thus, Walker established the relationship between southern oscillation and quantities of monsoon rains in India. Ultimately, the southern oscillation was found to be simply an atmospheric component of the El Niño/La Niña effect, which happens in the ocean. Therefore, in the context of the monsoon, the two together came to be known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effect. The effect is known to have a pronounced influence on the strength of the southwest monsoon over India, with the monsoon being weak (causing droughts) during El Niño years, while La Niña years bring particularly strong monsoons.


Indian Ocean dipole effect

Although the ENSO effect was statistically effective in explaining several past droughts in India, in recent decades, its relationship with the Indian monsoon seemed to weaken. For example, the strong El niño of 1997 did not cause drought in India. However, it was later discovered that, just like ENSO in the Pacific Ocean, a similar seesaw ocean-atmosphere system in the Indian Ocean was also in play. This system was discovered in 1999 and named the
Indian Ocean Dipole The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), is an irregular oscillation of sea surface temperatures in which the western Indian Ocean becomes alternately warmer (positive phase) and then colder (negative phase) than the eastern part of the ocean. Phenomen ...
(IOD). An index to calculate it was also formulated. IOD develops in the equatorial region of the Indian Ocean from April to May and peaks in October. With a positive IOD, winds over the Indian Ocean blow from east to west. This makes the Arabian Sea (the western Indian Ocean near the African coast) much warmer and the eastern Indian Ocean around Indonesia colder and drier. In negative dipole years, the reverse happens, making Indonesia much warmer and rainier. A positive IOD index often negates the effect of ENSO, resulting in increased monsoon rains in years such as 1983, 1994, and 1997. Further, the two poles of the IOD – the eastern pole (around Indonesia) and the western pole (off the African coast) — independently and cumulatively affect the quantity of monsoon rains.


Equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation

As with ENSO, the atmospheric component of the IOD was later discovered and the cumulative phenomenon named ''Equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation'' (EQUINOO). When EQUINOO effects are factored in, certain failed forecasts, like the acute drought of 2002, can be further accounted for. The relationship between extremes of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, along with ENSO and EQUINOO, have been studied, and models to better predict the quantity of monsoon rains have been statistically derived.


Impact of climate change

Since 1950s, the South Asian summer monsoon has been exhibiting large changes, especially in terms of droughts and floods. The observed monsoon rainfall indicates a gradual decline over central India, with a reduction of up to 10%. This is primarily due to a weakening monsoon circulation as a result of the rapid warming in the Indian Ocean, and changes in land use and land cover, while the role of aerosols remains elusive. Since the strength of the monsoon is partially dependent on the temperature difference between the ocean and the land, higher ocean temperatures in the Indian Ocean have weakened the moisture bearing winds from the ocean to the land. The reduction in the summer monsoon rainfall has grave consequences over central India because at least 60% of the agriculture in this region is still largely rain-fed. A recent assessment of the monsoonal changes indicate that the land warming has increased during 2002–2014, possibly reviving the strength of the monsoon circulation and rainfall. Future changes in the monsoon will depend on a competition between land and ocean—on which is warming faster than the other. Meanwhile, there has been a three-fold rise in widespread extreme rainfall events during the years 1950 to 2015, over the entire central belt of India, leading to a steady rise in the number of flash floods with significant socioeconomic losses. Widespread extreme rainfall events are those rainfall events which are larger than 150 mm/day and spread over a region large enough to cause floods.


Monsoon rain prediction models

Since the
Great Famine of 1876–1878 The Great Famine of 1876–1878 was a famine in British Raj, India under British Crown rule. It began in 1876 after an intense drought resulted in crop failure in the Deccan Plateau. It affected South India, south and West India, Southwestern In ...
in India, various attempts have been made to predict monsoon rainfall. At least five prediction models exist.


Seasonal Prediction of Indian Monsoon (SPIM)

The
Centre for Development of Advanced Computing The Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC) is an Indian autonomous scientific society, operating under the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology. History C-DAC was created in November 1987, initially as the Centr ...
(CDAC) at
Bengaluru Bengaluru, also known as Bangalore (List of renamed places in India#Karnataka, its official name until 1 November 2014), is the Capital city, capital and largest city of the southern States and union territories of India, Indian state of Kar ...
facilitated the Seasonal Prediction of Indian Monsoon (SPIM) experiment on the
PARAM Param may refer to: Places * Param, Rampur Param is a village in Rampur district in the Indian States and territories of India, state of Uttar Pradesh. It is 3 km from Ram Ganga and 8 km from the Grand Truck Road. Background The vi ...
Padma supercomputing system. This project involved simulated runs of historical data from 1985 to 2004 to try to establish the relationship of five ''atmospheric general circulation models'' with monsoon rainfall distribution.


India Meteorological Department model

The department has tried to forecast the monsoon for India since 1884, and is the only official agency entrusted with making public forecasts about the quantity, distribution, and timing of the monsoon rains. Its position as the sole authority on the monsoon was cemented in 2005 by the Department of Science and Technology (DST), New Delhi. In 2003, IMD substantially changed its forecast methodology, model, and administration. A sixteen-parameter monsoon forecasting model used since 1988 was replaced in 2003. However, following the 2009 drought in India (worst since 1972), The department decided in 2010 that it needed to develop an "indigenous model" to further improve its prediction capabilities.


Significance

The monsoon is the primary delivery mechanism for
fresh water Fresh water or freshwater is any naturally occurring liquid or frozen water containing low concentrations of dissolved salt (chemistry), salts and other total dissolved solids. The term excludes seawater and brackish water, but it does include ...
in the Indian subcontinent. As such, it affects the environment (and associated flora, fauna, and
ecosystem An ecosystem (or ecological system) is a system formed by Organism, organisms in interaction with their Biophysical environment, environment. The Biotic material, biotic and abiotic components are linked together through nutrient cycles and en ...
s), agriculture, society, hydro-power production, and geography of the subcontinent (like the availability of fresh water in water bodies and the underground water table), with all of these factors cumulatively contributing to the health of the economy of affected countries. The monsoon turns large parts of India from semi-deserts into green grasslands. See photos taken only three months apart in the Western Ghats.


Geographical (wettest spots on Earth)

Mawsynram Mawsynram () is a town in the East Khasi Hills district of Meghalaya state in Northeastern India, 69 kilometres from Shillong, the state capital. Mawsynram receives the highest rainfall in India. It is reportedly the wettest place on Earth, ...
and
Cherrapunji Cherrapunji () - popularly known as, or Sohra - it's original native and official name, is a sub-divisional town (Proposed District) East Khasi Hills district in the Indian state of Meghalaya. It was the traditional capital of ''ka hima Sohra'' ...
, both in the Indian state of
Meghalaya Meghalaya (; "the abode of clouds") is a states and union territories of India, state in northeast India. Its capital is Shillong. Meghalaya was formed on 21 January 1972 by carving out two districts from the Assam: the United Khasi Hills an ...
, alternate as the wettest places on Earth given the quantity of their rainfall, though there are other cities with similar claims. They receive more than 11,000 millimeters of rain each from the monsoon.


Agricultural

In India, which has historically had a primarily agrarian economy, the
services sector The tertiary sector of the economy, generally known as the service sector, is the third of the three economic sectors in the three-sector model (also known as the economic cycle). The others are the primary sector (raw materials) and the ...
recently overtook the farm sector in terms of
GDP Gross domestic product (GDP) is a monetary measure of the total market value of all the final goods and services produced and rendered in a specific time period by a country or countries. GDP is often used to measure the economic performance o ...
contribution. However, the agriculture sector still contributes 17–20% of GDP and is the largest employer in the country, with about 60% of Indians dependent on it for employment and livelihood. About 49% of India's land is agricultural; that number rises to 55% if associated
wetlands A wetland is a distinct semi-aquatic ecosystem whose groundcovers are flooded or saturated in water, either permanently, for years or decades, or only seasonally. Flooding results in oxygen-poor ( anoxic) processes taking place, especially ...
,
dryland farming Drylands are defined by a scarcity of water. Drylands are zones where precipitation is balanced by evaporation from surfaces and by transpiration by plants (evapotranspiration). The United Nations Environment Program defines drylands as tropical ...
areas, etc., are included. Because more than half of these farmlands are rain-fed, the monsoon is critical to food sufficiency and quality of life. Despite progress in alternative forms of irrigation, agricultural dependence on the monsoon remains far from insignificant. Therefore, the agricultural calendar of India is governed by the monsoon. Any fluctuations in the time distribution, spatial distribution, or quantity of the monsoon rains may lead to floods or droughts, causing the agricultural sector to suffer. This has a cascading effect on the secondary economic sectors, the overall economy, food inflation, and therefore the general population's quality and cost of living.


Economic

The economic significance of the monsoon is aptly described by
Pranab Mukherjee Pranab Kumar Mukherjee ( ; born, 11 December 1935 – 31 August 2020) was an Indian statesman who served as the president of India from 2012 until 2017. He was the first person from West Bengal to hold the post of President of India. In a pol ...
's remark that the monsoon is the "real finance minister of India". A good monsoon results in better agricultural yields, which brings down prices of essential food commodities and reduces imports, thus reducing food inflation overall. Better rains also result in increased hydroelectric production. All of these factors have positive ripple effects throughout the economy of India. The down side however is that when monsoon rains are weak, crop production is low leading to higher food prices with limited supply. As a result, the Indian government is actively working with farmers and the nation's meteorological department to produce more drought resistant crops.


Health

The onset of the monsoon increases fungal and bacterial activity. A host of mosquito-borne, water-borne and air-borne infections become more common as a result of the change in the ecosystem. These include diseases such as dengue, malaria, cholera, and colds.


Social

D. Subbarao, former governor of the Reserve Bank of India, emphasized during a quarterly review of India's
monetary policy Monetary policy is the policy adopted by the monetary authority of a nation to affect monetary and other financial conditions to accomplish broader objectives like high employment and price stability (normally interpreted as a low and stable rat ...
that the lives of Indians depend on the performance of the monsoon. His own career prospects, his emotional well-being, and the performance of his monetary policy are all "a hostage" to the monsoon, he said, as is the case for most Indians. Additionally, farmers rendered jobless by failed monsoon rains tend to migrate to cities. This crowds city slums and aggravates the infrastructure and sustainability of city life.


Travel

In the past, Indians usually refrained from traveling during monsoons for practical as well as religious reasons. But with the advent of globalization, such travel is gaining popularity. Places like
Kerala Kerala ( , ) is a States and union territories of India, state on the Malabar Coast of India. It was formed on 1 November 1956, following the passage of the States Reorganisation Act, by combining Malayalam-speaking regions of the erstwhile ...
and the Western Ghats get a large number of tourists, both local and foreigners, during the monsoon season. Kerala is one of the top destinations for tourists interested in
Ayurvedic Ayurveda (; ) is an alternative medicine system with historical roots in the Indian subcontinent. It is heavily practised throughout India and Nepal, where as much as 80% of the population report using ayurveda. The theory and practice of ayur ...
treatments and massage therapy. One major drawback of traveling during the monsoon is that most wildlife sanctuaries are closed. Also, some mountainous areas, especially in Himalayan regions, get cut off when roads are damaged by landslides and floods during heavy rains.


Environmental

The monsoon is the primary bearer of fresh water to the area. The peninsular/Deccan rivers of India are mostly rain-fed and non-perennial in nature, depending primarily on the monsoon for water supply. Most of the coastal rivers of Western India are also rain-fed and monsoon-dependent. As such, the flora, fauna, and entire
ecosystem An ecosystem (or ecological system) is a system formed by Organism, organisms in interaction with their Biophysical environment, environment. The Biotic material, biotic and abiotic components are linked together through nutrient cycles and en ...
s of these areas rely heavily on the monsoon.


See also

* East Asian Monsoon * Monsoon (photographs) of India, 1960 *
Climate of India The climate of India consists of a wide range of weather conditions across a vast geographic scale and varied topography. Based on the Köppen climate classification, Köppen system, India encompasses a diverse array of climatic subtypes. The ...
(section
Monsoon A monsoon () is traditionally a seasonal reversing wind accompanied by corresponding changes in precipitation but is now used to describe seasonal changes in Atmosphere of Earth, atmospheric circulation and precipitation associated with annu ...
) * Asian brown cloud *
Tropical monsoon climate An area of tropical monsoon climate (occasionally known as a sub-equatorial, tropical wet climate or a tropical monsoon and trade-wind littoral climate) is a tropical climate subtype that corresponds to the Köppen climate classification category ' ...
(section Factors) *
Tibetan Plateau The Tibetan Plateau, also known as the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau or Qingzang Plateau, is a vast elevated plateau located at the intersection of Central Asia, Central, South Asia, South, and East Asia. Geographically, it is located to the north of H ...
(section Role in monsoons) *
Himalayas The Himalayas, or Himalaya ( ), is a mountain range in Asia, separating the plains of the Indian subcontinent from the Tibetan Plateau. The range has some of the Earth's highest peaks, including the highest, Mount Everest. More than list of h ...
(section Impact on climate) *
India Meteorological Department India Meteorological Department (IMD) is an Indian agency of the Ministry of Earth Sciences of the Government of India. It is the principal agency responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasting and seismology. IMD is headquar ...
* Drought in India


Notes


References


External links


Indian Meteorological Department Official WebsiteCentre for Development of Advanced Computing
{{South Asian topics Climate of India Winds Regional climate effects Environmental science Weather events in India Weather events in Asia Climate of Pakistan Weather events in Pakistan hi:मॉनसून ta:இந்திய துணைக்கண்டத்தின் பருவமழை