Electricity Sector In Turkey

Turkey uses more electricity per person than the global average, but less than the European average, with demand peaking in summer due to air conditioning. Most electricity is generated from coal, gas and hydropower, with hydroelectricity from the east transmitted to big cities in the west. Electricity prices are state-controlled, but wholesale prices are heavily influenced by the cost of imported gas.

Each year, about 300 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity is used, which is almost a quarter of the total energy used in Turkey. On average, about four hundred grams of carbon dioxide is emitted per kilowatt-hour of electricity generated (400 gCO₂/kWh); this carbon intensity is slightly less than the global average. As there is 100 GW of generating capacity, far more electricity could be produced. Although only a tiny proportion is exported; consumption is forecast to increase, and there are plans for more exports during the 2020s.

Turkey's coal-fired power stations are the largest source of the country's greenhouse-gas emissions. Many brown coal power stations are subsidized, which increases air pollution. Imports of gas, mostly for Turkey's power stations, are one of the main expenses for the country. In winter, electricity generation is vulnerable to reductions in the gas supply from other countries. Solar and wind power are now the cheapest generators of electricity, and more of both are being built. If enough solar and wind power is built, the country's hydroelectric plants should be enough to cover windless cloudy weeks. Renewables generate a third of the country's electricity, and academics have suggested that the target of 32% renewable energy by 2030 be increased to 50%, and that coal power should be phased out by the mid-2030s. Increased use of electric vehicles is expected to increase electricity demand.

Consumption

Each year, about 300 TWh of electricity is used in Turkey: this supplies almost a quarter of the total final energy demand, the rest being from coal, oil and gas. Due to air conditioning demand peaks in summer: with August highest (32 TWh in 2021) and February typically lowest (24 TWh in 2021). Total national consumption divided by the population is under 4,000 kWh a year, much below the average of around 10,000 kWh a year for other OECD countries in Europe, but half as much again as the global average. Shares of energy usage in 2019 totaled 45% for industry, 29% for services and 21% for households. Consumption is forecast to increase.

, household electricity consumption is estimated to average 230 kWh a month and is dominated by refrigerators, followed by televisions then washing machines. Space heating and electric vehicles have the biggest potential for demand side response.

Between 2019 and 2024, Turkey plans to invest US$11 billion into energy efficiency; and by 2035 replace 80% of electricity meters with smart meters. Electricity's share of energy consumption is expected to increase, from 22% in 2019 to perhaps 28% in 2040, partly due to electrification of road transport.

Demand forecasts

Demand forecasting is important, because constructing too much electricity generation capacity can be expensive, both for government energy subsidies and private sector debt interest. Conversely, constructing too little risks delaying the health benefits of electrification, the biggest of which is cleaner air due to fossil fuel phase-out.

Distribution companies, some retail companies, and industrial zones send their demand forecasts to the Energy Ministry and the Turkish Electricity Transmission Corporation (TEIAŞ) every year. TEİAŞ then publishes low, base and high 10 year forecasts, using the "DECADES" model; whereas the Energy Ministry uses the "Model for Analysis of Energy Demand".

Some official demand forecasts are overestimated, which could be due to low economic growth. In 2019 actual generation was 76% of firm capacity, and overcapacity continued into the early 2020s. In 2022 and 2023 demand decreased, partly due to industry’s share of the economy decreasing.

Industry

The share of electricity used in industry is expected to increase at the expense of the fossil fuel share as Turkey moves to more technology manufacturing. Less coal is being burnt for industry and oil burning remains static. One projection even shows electricity overtaking gas to become the largest industrial energy source at 30%, however more efficient lighting and industrial motors, together with policy changes supporting efficiency, could limit demand growth.

Electrification of transport

In 2021, less than 3000 fully electric cars were sold, however production and use of some types of electric vehicles, such as cars manufactured by Togg, may increase demand during the 2020s. Shura Energy Transition Center, a think tank, has recommended to automatically charge electric cars when plenty of wind and solar power is available. The architecture of Turkey means that many city dwellers live in apartment blocks without off-street parking: regulations require at least one charger per 50 new parking spaces in shopping malls and public parking lots. Getting old diesel cars and trucks off the road would have health and environmental benefits, but this would require new pollution control legislation, and the only commercial electric vehicles planned for mass production are vans. The government aims to end sales of fossil fuel cars and lorries by 2040. Ford hopes to build a factory to make batteries for commercial electric vehicles.

Generation

Of the total 329 TWh of electricity generated in 2021; natural gas produced 42%, coal 26%, hydropower 13%, and wind 10%. Installed capacity reached 100 GW in 2022. Academics have suggested that the target of 32% from renewables by 2030 should be increased to at least 50%. The state-owned Electricity Generation Company (EÜAŞ) has about 20% of the market, and there are many private companies. The carbon intensity of generation during the 2010s was slightly over 400 gCO₂/kWh, around the global average.

Coal

Gas

In 2020, power plants consumed 29% of natural gas in Turkey. State-owned gas-fired power plants are less efficient than private plants, but can out-compete them, as the state guarantees a price for their electricity. Gas power plants are used more when drought reduces hydropower, such as in 2021 which was a record year for gas consumption. The National Energy Plan published in 2023 forecasts 10 GW more gas power plants will be built.

Hydropower

Hydropower is a critical source of electricity, and in some years substantial amounts can be generated due to Turkey's mountainous landscape, abundance of rivers, and it being surrounded by three seas. The main river basins are the Euphrates and the Tigris. Many dams have been built throughout the country, and a peak of 28 GW of power can be generated by hydroelectric plants. Almost 90 TWh was generated in 2019, around 30% of the country's electricity. There are many policies that support hydroelectricity. Construction of some dams has been controversial for various reasons: for example environmentalists claiming they damage wildlife such as fish, or downstream countries complaining of reduced water flow.

Due to changes in rainfall, generation varies considerably from year to year. And, according to S&P Global Platts, when there is drought in Turkey during the peak electricity demand month of August the aim of the State Hydraulic Works to conserve water for irrigation can conflict with the Turkish Electricity Transmission Corporation aiming to generate electricity. Despite droughts increasing due to climate change, hydropower is predicted to remain important for load balancing. Converting existing dams to pumped storage has been suggested as more feasible than new pumped storage.

Wind

Solar

Turkey is located in an advantageous position in the Middle East and Southeast Europe for solar energy, and it is a growing part of renewable energy in the country, with almost 8 GW generating about 4% of the country's electricity. Solar potential is high in Turkey, especially in the south-east and Mediterranean provinces. Conditions for solar power generation are comparable to Spain. In 2020 Turkey ranked 8th in Europe for solar power, but it could increase far more quickly if subsidies for coal were abolishedOECD (2019), page 36 and the auction system was improved. Every gigawatt of solar power installed would save over US$100 million in gas import costs.

Peak daily generation in 2020 was over 1 TWh in September. According to modelling by Carbon Tracker, new solar power became cheaper than new coal power in 2020, and will become cheaper than existing coal plants in 2023. According to think tank Ember, building new solar and wind power in Turkey is cheaper than running existing coal plants which depend on imported coal. But they say that there are obstacles to building utility-scale solar, such as: lack of new capacity for solar power at transformers, a 50 MW cap on any single solar power plant’s installed capacity, and large consumers being unable to sign long term power purchase agreements for new solar installations. Unlicensed power plants, which are mostly solar, generated about 4% of electricity in 2021.

Geothermal

There are almost 2 gigawatts of electrical geothermal power in Turkey, which is a significant part of renewable energy in Turkey. Geothermal power in Turkey began in the 1970s, in a prototype plant, following systematic exploration of geothermal fields. In the 1980s the pilot facility became the first geothermal power plant. The small-sized geothermal power plant was expanded to the country's biggest in 2013. Over 60 power plants operate in Turkey , with potential for more. As well as contributing to electricity generation, geothermal energy is also used in direct heating applications. At the end of 2021 Turkey had 1.7 GW installed capacity, the fourth largest in the world after the United States, Indonesia and the Philippines.

There is almost 2 GW of geothermal and sites for much more including enhanced geothermal systems. However carbon dioxide emissions can be high, especially for new plants, so to prevent carbon dioxide dissolved out of the rocks being released into the atmosphere the fluid is sometimes completely reinjected after its heat is used.

Nuclear

Turkey's first nuclear power plant, at Akkuyu, is planned to start generation in 2023, and is expected to last for at least 60 years. The nuclear power debate has a long history, with the 2018 construction start in Mersin Province being the sixth major attempt to build a nuclear power plant since 1960. Nuclear power has been criticised, as being very expensive to taxpayers.

Plans for a nuclear power plant at Sinop and another at İğneada have stalled.

Hybrid, distributed and virtual generation

Hybrid generation became more popular in the early 2020s. If distributed generation installed power is under 11 kW, it is only allowed to be connected to the low voltage network, not the high voltage network. The first virtual power plant was created in 2017 with wind, solar and hydropower; and geothermal was added in 2020.

Transmission and storage

The transmission system operator is the Turkish Electricity Transmission Corporation (TEİAŞ), which is a state-owned monopoly as of 2022. It is planned to sell a minority share to the private sector in 2022. Transmission is regulated by the Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA). The first long-distance transmission line was from Zonguldak

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