The Easterlin hypothesis (Easterlin 1961, 1969, 1973) states that the positive relationship between
income and fertility
Income and fertility is the association between monetary gain on one hand, and the tendency to produce offspring on the other. There is generally an inverse correlation between income and the total fertility rate within and between nations. The h ...
is dependent on relative income. It is considered the first viable and a still leading explanation for
mid-twentieth century baby boom
A baby boom is a period marked by a significant increase of births. This demography, demographic phenomenon is usually an ascribed characteristic within the population of a specific nationality, nation or culture. Baby booms are caused by various ...
s.
The hypothesis as formulated by
Richard Easterlin presumes that material aspirations are determined by experiences rooted in family background: he assumes first that young couples try to achieve a
standard of living
Standard of living is the level of income, comforts and services available to an individual, community or society. A contributing factor to an individual's quality of life, standard of living is generally concerned with objective metrics outsid ...
equal to or better than they had when they grew up. This is called "relative status". If income is high relative to aspirations and jobs are plentiful, it will be easier to marry young and have more children and still match that standard of living. But when jobs are scarce, couples who try to keep that standard of living will wait to get married and have fewer children. Children are
normal goods
In economics, a normal good is a type of a Good (economics), good which experiences an increase in demand due to an increase in income, unlike inferior goods, for which the opposite is observed. When there is an increase in a person's income, for ...
once this influence of family background is controlled. For Easterlin, the size of the cohort is a critical determinant of how easy it is to get a good job. A small cohort means less competition, a large cohort means more competition to worry about. The assumptions blend
economics
Economics () is a behavioral science that studies the Production (economics), production, distribution (economics), distribution, and Consumption (economics), consumption of goods and services.
Economics focuses on the behaviour and interac ...
and
sociology
Sociology is the scientific study of human society that focuses on society, human social behavior, patterns of Interpersonal ties, social relationships, social interaction, and aspects of culture associated with everyday life. The term sociol ...
.
Easterlin's hypothesis can also be used for further predictions of the fertility rate. Easterlin expected a new fertility boom beginning in the 1980s.
[Easterlin RA. 1979. What will 1984 be like? Socioeconomic implications of recent twists in age structure ''Demography'', 15: 397-432. DOI: 10.2307/2061197]
References
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Fertility
Demographic economics