Demographic Threat
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The concept of demographic threat (or demographic bomb) is a term used in political conversation or demography to refer to population increases from within a minority ethnic or religious group in a given country that is perceived as threatening to the ethnic, racial or religious majority, stability of the country or to the identity of said countries in which it is present. The term is often used by the
far-right Far-right politics, often termed right-wing extremism, encompasses a range of ideologies that are marked by ultraconservatism, authoritarianism, ultranationalism, and nativism. This political spectrum situates itself on the far end of the ...
as a racial dogwhistle.


Examples in countries


Australia

In 1984,
Geoffrey Blainey Geoffrey Norman Blainey, (born 11 March 1930) is an Australian historian, academic, best selling author and commentator. Blainey is noted for his authoritative texts on the economic and social history of Australia, including ''The Tyranny of ...
, an Australian historian and academic criticised a comment by a spokesman to Immigration Minister Stewart West of the
Australian Labor Party The Australian Labor Party (ALP), also known as the Labor Party or simply Labor, is the major Centre-left politics, centre-left List of political parties in Australia, political party in Australia and one of two Major party, major parties in Po ...
that "the increasing Asianisation was inevitable". Blainey responded, "I do not accept the view, widely held in the Federal Cabinet, that some kind of slow Asian takeover of Australia is inevitable. I do not believe that we are powerless. I do believe that we can with good will and good sense control our destiny.... As a people, we seem to move from extreme to extreme. In the past 30 years the government of Australia has moved from the extreme of wanting a white Australia to the extreme of saying that we will have an Asian Australia and that the quicker we move towards it the better". In the 1996 Australian federal election, Pauline Hanson was elected to the
Division of Oxley The Division of Oxley is an Divisions of the Australian House of Representatives, Australian Electoral Division in Queensland. It is currently represented by Milton Dick, the current Speaker of the Australian House of Representatives, Speaker ...
. In her controversial maiden speech to the
Australian House of Representatives The House of Representatives is the lower house of the bicameralism, bicameral Parliament of Australia, the upper house being the Australian Senate, Senate. Its composition and powers are set out in Chapter I of the Constitution of Australia. ...
, she expressed her belief that Australia "was in danger of being swamped by Asians". Hanson went on to form the
One Nation Party Pauline Hanson's One Nation (PHON), also known as One Nation (ON) or One Nation Party (ONP), is a right-wing populist political party in Australia. It is led by Pauline Hanson. One Nation was founded in 1997 by Hanson and her advisors ...
, which initially won nearly one quarter of the vote in
Queensland Queensland ( , commonly abbreviated as Qld) is a States and territories of Australia, state in northeastern Australia, and is the second-largest and third-most populous state in Australia. It is bordered by the Northern Territory, South Austr ...
state elections before it entering a period of decline because of internal disputes. The name "One Nation" was meant to signify national unity in contrast to what Hanson claimed as an increasing division in Australian society caused by government policies favouring migrants (
multiculturalism Multiculturalism is the coexistence of multiple cultures. The word is used in sociology, in political philosophy, and colloquially. In sociology and everyday usage, it is usually a synonym for ''Pluralism (political theory), ethnic'' or cultura ...
) and
indigenous Australians Indigenous Australians are people with familial heritage from, or recognised membership of, the various ethnic groups living within the territory of contemporary Australia prior to History of Australia (1788–1850), British colonisation. The ...
.


Bahrain

Thousands of Bahraini
Shia Muslims Shia Islam is the second-largest Islamic schools and branches, branch of Islam. It holds that Muhammad in Islam, Muhammad designated Ali ibn Abi Talib () as both his political Succession to Muhammad, successor (caliph) and as the spiritual le ...
protested in March 2011 against the Bahraini government's naturalisation policy of granting citizenship to
Sunni Muslims Sunni Islam is the largest branch of Islam and the largest religious denomination in the world. It holds that Muhammad did not appoint any successor and that his closest companion Abu Bakr () rightfully succeeded him as the caliph of the Musli ...
from other countries serving in the military of Bahrain.


Bhutan

Bhutan Bhutan, officially the Kingdom of Bhutan, is a landlocked country in South Asia, in the Eastern Himalayas between China to the north and northwest and India to the south and southeast. With a population of over 727,145 and a territory of , ...
has a long-standing concern with the demographic threat posed by the immigration of ethnically distinct Nepali immigrants.


Canada

During the 19th and 20th centuries (until the 1960s), the French-speaking Catholic minority of Canada managed to maintain its share of the population due to a high birth rate, dubbed the "revenge of the cradle."


Estonia

In
Estonia Estonia, officially the Republic of Estonia, is a country in Northern Europe. It is bordered to the north by the Gulf of Finland across from Finland, to the west by the Baltic Sea across from Sweden, to the south by Latvia, and to the east by Ru ...
, one of the causes of the
Singing Revolution The Singing Revolution was a series of events from 1987 to 1991 that led to the restoration of independence of the three Soviet-occupied Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania at the end of the Cold War. The term was coined by a ...
was the concern over the demographic threat to the national identity posed by the influx of individuals from foreign ethnic groups to work on such large Soviet development projects as phosphate mining.


India

Many
Hindu Hindus (; ; also known as Sanātanīs) are people who religiously adhere to Hinduism, also known by its endonym Sanātana Dharma. Jeffery D. Long (2007), A Vision for Hinduism, IB Tauris, , pp. 35–37 Historically, the term has also be ...
Indians see Muslims as a "demographic threat" because of their large population growth due to high fertility rates and because of the high rate of illegal immigration from
Bangladesh Bangladesh, officially the People's Republic of Bangladesh, is a country in South Asia. It is the List of countries and dependencies by population, eighth-most populous country in the world and among the List of countries and dependencies by ...
.


Israel

In the 1950s, Shoham Melamad found that the high fertility rate of Arabs was viewed as a demographic threat to the Jewish nation.Shenhav, 2006, p. 191. Rabbi
Menachem Mendel Schneerson Menachem Mendel Schneerson ( – June 12, 1994; Anno Mundi, AM 11 Nissan 5662 – 3 Tammuz 5754), known to adherents of the Chabad-Lubavitch movement as the Lubavitcher Rebbe or simply the Rebbe, was an American Orthodox rabbi and the most rec ...
, however, stated that Arabs in Israel should be treated equally to any other Israeli citizens and be allowed to have children just like any other citizen. A 1967 ''
Maariv ''Maariv'' or ''Maʿariv'' (, ), also known as ''Arvit'', or ''Arbit'' (, ), is a Jewish prayer service held in the evening or at night. It consists primarily of the evening '' Shema'' and ''Amidah''. The service will often begin with two ...
'' editorial suggested that Jews should be encouraged to have large families, while
Palestinians Palestinians () are an Arab ethnonational group native to the Levantine region of Palestine. *: "Palestine was part of the first wave of conquest following Muhammad's death in 632 CE; Jerusalem fell to the Caliph Umar in 638. The indigenou ...
in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and in Israel should be encouraged to adopt
birth control Birth control, also known as contraception, anticonception, and fertility control, is the use of methods or devices to prevent pregnancy. Birth control has been used since ancient times, but effective and safe methods of birth control only be ...
measures. Schnitzer also advocated for the adoption of an open policy encouraging Arabs to emigrate from Israel.Masalha, 2000, pp. 200-202. In 2003,
Benjamin Netanyahu Benjamin Netanyahu (born 21 October 1949) is an Israeli politician who has served as the prime minister of Israel since 2022, having previously held the office from 1996 to 1999 and from 2009 to 2021. Netanyahu is the longest-serving prime min ...
opined that if the percentage of
Arab citizens of Israel The Arab citizens of Israel form the country's largest ethnic minority. Their community mainly consists of former Palestinian Citizenship Order 1925, Mandatory Palestine citizens (and their descendants) who continued to inhabit the territory ...
rises above its current level of about 20 percent, Israel would not be able to retain a Jewish demographic majority, the basis of Israel's self-definition as a "Jewish democratic state". Netanyahu's comments were criticized as racist by Arab
Knesset The Knesset ( , ) is the Unicameralism, unicameral legislature of Israel. The Knesset passes all laws, elects the President of Israel, president and Prime Minister of Israel, prime minister, approves the Cabinet of Israel, cabinet, and supe ...
members and the Association for Civil Rights in Israel. In May 2009,
Michael Oren Michael Bornstein Oren (; born Michael Scott Bornstein; May 20, 1955) is an American-Israeli diplomat, writer, and politician. He is a former Israeli ambassador to the United States (2009–2013), former member of the Knesset for the Kul ...
wrote an article in '' Commentary'' in which he discussed the "Arab Demographic Threat" as one of "Seven Existential Threats" facing Israel. In 2005,
Shimon Peres Shimon Peres ( ; ; born Szymon Perski, ; 2 August 1923 – 28 September 2016) was an Israeli politician and statesman who served as the prime minister of Israel from 1984 to 1986 and from 1995 to 1996 and as the president of Israel from 2007 t ...
told US officials that Israel had "lost" land in the Negev "to the Bedouin" and would need to take steps to "relieve" the "demographic threat". In 2010, Netanyahu warned in a government meeting that a Negev "without a Jewish majority" would pose "a palpable threat". In February 2014, then Israeli finance minister
Yair Lapid Yair Lapid ( ; born 5 November 1963) is an Israeli politician of the centrist Yesh Atid party and a former journalist who has been the Leader of the Opposition (Israel), Leader of the Opposition since January 2023, having previously served in t ...
said failure to establish a Palestinian state would leave Israel facing a demographic threat that could undermine its Jewish and democratic nature.


Malaysia

The
Malaysia Malaysia is a country in Southeast Asia. Featuring the Tanjung Piai, southernmost point of continental Eurasia, it is a federation, federal constitutional monarchy consisting of States and federal territories of Malaysia, 13 states and thre ...
n government has been accused of masterminding
Project IC Project IC is the name used in Malaysia to describe the allegation of systematic granting of citizenship to immigrants (whether legal or otherwise) by giving them identity document, identity cards and subsequently its current iteration, the ''MyK ...
to alter the demographic pattern of the East Malaysian state of
Sabah Sabah () is a States and federal territories of Malaysia, state of Malaysia located in northern Borneo, in the region of East Malaysia. Sabah has land borders with the Malaysian state of Sarawak to the southwest and Indonesia's North Kalima ...
.


New Zealand

Fears of changing demographics caused by high immigration from the Asia-Pacific region and birth rates of the native
Māori people Māori () are the Indigenous peoples of Oceania, indigenous Polynesians, Polynesian people of mainland New Zealand. Māori originated with settlers from East Polynesia, who arrived in New Zealand in several waves of Māori migration canoes, c ...
, particularly among older
Pākehā ''Pākehā'' (or ''Pakeha''; ; ) is a Māori language, Māori-language word used in English, particularly in New Zealand. It generally means a non-Polynesians, Polynesian New Zealanders, New Zealander or more specifically a European New Zeala ...
(European-descended New Zealanders), have found their way into parliamentary politics. Extremist groups in New Zealand, such as Action Zealandia, have been blacklisted by social media networks for inciting fears about "demographic replacement" at the "expense of the European community". The 2019
Christchurch mosque shootings Two consecutive mass shootings took place in Christchurch, New Zealand, on 15 March 2019. They were committed by a single perpetrator during Friday prayer, first at the Al Noor Mosque in Riccarton, at 1:40p.m. and almost immediately afterwards ...
also drew closer attention to such groups forming links with like-minded ethno-nationalists overseas, in a ‘networked white rage’.


Northern Ireland

In
Northern Ireland Northern Ireland ( ; ) is a Countries of the United Kingdom, part of the United Kingdom in the north-east of the island of Ireland. It has been #Descriptions, variously described as a country, province or region. Northern Ireland shares Repub ...
, Protestants are more likely to favour continued political union with the
United Kingdom The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Northwestern Europe, off the coast of European mainland, the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotlan ...
, and Catholics are more likely to favour political union with the
Republic of Ireland Ireland ( ), also known as the Republic of Ireland (), is a country in Northwestern Europe, north-western Europe consisting of 26 of the 32 Counties of Ireland, counties of the island of Ireland, with a population of about 5.4 million. ...
. When Ireland was partitioned in the 1920s and Northern Ireland came into existence, Protestants were roughly 60% of the population, but as a result of higher fertility rates among Catholics, their share of the population has dropped to less than 50% in the 2011 census, while Catholics numbered only slightly fewer than Protestants. There is debate over whether and to what extent the trend will continue and its possible impact on the political situation.


Russia

Russia fears the "demographic threat" posed by the potential for "large-scale Chinese immigration" to its thinly populated far east. Illegal immigration of Chinese nationals is a special concern. There were also fears of a Muslim-majority Russia eventually coming into fruition (for instance, by Paul A. Goble), though such fears have also been criticized as being unrealistic, irrational, and/or unfounded.


Sweden

Sweden's main statistics bureau,
Statistics Sweden Statistics Sweden ( ; SCB, ) is the Swedish government agency operating under the Ministry of Finance and responsible for producing official statistics for decision-making, debate and research. The agency's responsibilities include: * developin ...
(SCB), does not keep any record of ethnicity, but about 20% of Sweden's population is of foreign background. Some immigrants in Sweden feel that they experience "betweenship" that arises when others ascribe them an identity that they do not hold. The growing numbers of immigrants has coincided with the rise of and anti-immigration political party, the
Sweden Democrats The Sweden Democrats ( , SD ) is a Nationalism, nationalist and Right-wing populism, right-wing populist political party in Sweden founded in 1988. As of 2024, it is the largest member of Sweden's Right-wing politics, right-wing bloc and the sec ...
, which believe in a demographic threat, especially by the rise of Islam in Sweden. Since the 1990s, polls show that people in Sweden have gradually become more positive to asylum-seekers.


United States

Some in the United States have expressed concern about the "demographic threat" posed by migrants from
Latin America Latin America is the cultural region of the Americas where Romance languages are predominantly spoken, primarily Spanish language, Spanish and Portuguese language, Portuguese. Latin America is defined according to cultural identity, not geogr ...
, particularly
Mexico Mexico, officially the United Mexican States, is a country in North America. It is the northernmost country in Latin America, and borders the United States to the north, and Guatemala and Belize to the southeast; while having maritime boundar ...
, and their descendants. In a similar vein, in 2000, Peter Brimelow of the immigration restrictionist website VDARE set forth a
conspiracy theory A conspiracy theory is an explanation for an event or situation that asserts the existence of a conspiracy (generally by powerful sinister groups, often political in motivation), when other explanations are more probable.Additional sources: * ...
that the Democratic Party, with the illogically imagined support of the Republican Party, is importing a new, less
white White is the lightest color and is achromatic (having no chroma). It is the color of objects such as snow, chalk, and milk, and is the opposite of black. White objects fully (or almost fully) reflect and scatter all the visible wa ...
, electorate that is more favorable to the former.


See also

* Demographic trap *
Fifth column A fifth column is a group of people who undermine a larger group or nation from within, usually in favor of an enemy group or another nation. The activities of a fifth column can be overt or clandestine. Forces gathered in secret can mobilize ...
*
Great Replacement The Great Replacement (), also known as replacement theory or great replacement theory, is a debunked white nationalist far-right conspiracy theoryPT71. espoused by French author Renaud Camus. The original theory states that, with the complicit ...
* Majority-minority *
Natalism Natalism (also called pronatalism or the pro-birth position) is a policy paradigm or personal value that promotes the reproduction of human life as an important objective of humanity and therefore advocates a high birthrate. Cf.: According to t ...
*
Political demography Political demography is the study of the relationship between politics and population change. Population change is driven by classic Demographics, demographic mechanisms – birth, death, age structure, and Human migration, migration. However, in ...
* Revenge of the cradle


References


Bibliography

* Masalha, Nur (2000).
Imperial Israel And The Palestinians: The Politics of Expansion
'. Pluto Press. * Shenhav, Yehouda (2006).
The Arab Jews: A Postcolonial Reading of Nationalism, Religion, and Ethnicity
'.
Stanford University Press Stanford University Press (SUP) is the publishing house of Stanford University. It is one of the oldest academic presses in the United States and the first university press to be established on the West Coast. It is currently a member of the Ass ...
. *
Pat Buchanan Patrick Joseph Buchanan ( ; born November 2, 1938) is an American paleoconservative author, political commentator, and politician. He was an assistant and special consultant to U.S. presidents Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, and Ronald Reagan. He ...
, '' The Death of the West'' (2001)


External links


Ynet: Demographic threat a myth


*
'What Counts is the Counting: Statistical Manipulation as a Solution to Israel’s “Demographic Problem”
', Middle East Journal, Volume 67, No. 2, Spring 2013 pp. 185–205 {{DEFAULTSORT:Demographic Threat * Anti-Arabism in Israel Politics of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict Ethnicity in politics Cultural assimilation Demographics Anti-Hispanic and Latin American sentiment