A convention bounce or convention bump refers to an increase in support that U.S. presidential candidates in the Republican or Democratic party typically enjoy after the televised

national convention The National Convention () was the constituent assembly of the Kingdom of France for one day and the French First Republic for its first three years during the French Revolution, following the two-year National Constituent Assembly and the ...

of their party. A

presumptive nominee Preselection is the process by which a candidate is selected, usually by a political party, to contest an election for political office. It is also referred to as candidate selection. It is a fundamental function of political parties. The presel ...

for president may also be said to experience a "VP bounce" after announcing his or her pick for vice president prior to the convention. The size and impact of convention bumps vary, but presidential candidates usually see at least a small uptick in their polling numbers coming out of their conventions.

History of convention bounces

1992

Bill Clinton William Jefferson Clinton (né Blythe III; born August 19, 1946) is an American politician and lawyer who was the 42nd president of the United States from 1993 to 2001. A member of the Democratic Party (United States), Democratic Party, ...

benefited from one of the largest bumps in history after the

Democratic National Convention The Democratic National Convention (DNC) is a series of presidential nominating conventions held every four years since 1832 by the United States Democratic Party. They have been administered by the Democratic National Committee since the 18 ...

in 1992, climbing by as many as 30 points in the polls, however this was assisted by Independent Ross Perot, who at the time was polling at 20%, withdrawing from the race during the Democratic convention. Incumbent President

George H. W. Bush George Herbert Walker BushBefore the outcome of the 2000 United States presidential election, he was usually referred to simply as "George Bush" but became more commonly known as "George H. W. Bush", "Bush Senior," "Bush 41," and even "Bush th ...

's convention bounce was weak by comparison. Some party leaders blaming former

primary Primary or primaries may refer to: Arts, entertainment, and media Music Groups and labels * Primary (band), from Australia * Primary (musician), hip hop musician and record producer from South Korea * Primary Music, Israeli record label Work ...

challenger

Pat Buchanan Patrick Joseph Buchanan ( ; born November 2, 1938) is an American paleoconservative author, political commentator, and politician. He was an assistant and special consultant to U.S. presidents Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, and Ronald Reagan. He ...

's fiery and divisive speech, which aired in

primetime Prime time, or peak time, is the block of broadcast programming taking place during the middle of the evening for television shows. It is mostly targeted towards adults (and sometimes families). It is used by the major television networks to b ...

due to a scheduling delay.

2000

Al Gore Albert Arnold Gore Jr. (born March 31, 1948) is an American former politician, businessman, and environmentalist who served as the 45th vice president of the United States from 1993 to 2001 under President Bill Clinton. He previously served as ...

's 2000 bounce endured for weeks. Prior to the Democratic convention, Gore was behind

Texas Texas ( , ; or ) is the most populous U.S. state, state in the South Central United States, South Central region of the United States. It borders Louisiana to the east, Arkansas to the northeast, Oklahoma to the north, New Mexico to the we ...

Gov.

George W. Bush George Walker Bush (born July 6, 1946) is an American politician and businessman who was the 43rd president of the United States from 2001 to 2009. A member of the Bush family and the Republican Party (United States), Republican Party, he i ...

by as many as 16 points, but was in a statistical tie with the Republican the weekend after his acceptance speech.Gore Gets Convention Bounce, but Will Fickle Figures Last?
New York Times. 2000-08-23.Convention Bounce Gives Gore 5-Point Lead
ABC News. 2000-08-21.

2004

Democratic candidate

John Kerry John Forbes Kerry (born December 11, 1943) is an American attorney, politician, and diplomat who served as the 68th United States secretary of state from 2013 to 2017 in the Presidency of Barack Obama#Administration, administration of Barac ...

did not get a convention bounce in 2004.

2008

Polls indicated a small bounce for 2008 Democratic presidential nominee

Barack Obama Barack Hussein Obama II (born August 4, 1961) is an American politician who was the 44th president of the United States from 2009 to 2017. A member of the Democratic Party, he was the first African American president in American history. O ...

after his party's convention in August, but as expected, much of it evaporated during and after the Republican convention the week following, yielding GOP candidate

John McCain John Sidney McCain III (August 29, 1936 – August 25, 2018) was an American statesman and United States Navy, naval officer who represented the Arizona, state of Arizona in United States Congress, Congress for over 35 years, first as ...

a small lead in several polls.

Nielsen ratings Nielsen Media Research (NMR) is an American firm that measures media audiences, including television, radio, theatre, films (via the AMC Theatres MAP program), and newspapers. Headquartered in New York City, it is best known for the Nielsen rat ...

revealed that year's party conventions to be the most-watched ever, with the Republican convention narrowly trumping the Democrats'.

2012

The

RealClearPolitics RealClearPolitics (RCP) is an American political news website and polling data aggregator. It was founded in 2000 by former options trader John McIntyre and former advertising agency account executive Tom Bevan. It features selected polit ...

polling index revealed the 2012 convention bounces for President Obama and GOP challenger

Mitt Romney Willard Mitt Romney (born March 12, 1947) is an American businessman and retired politician. He served as a United States Senate, United States senator from Utah from 2019 to 2025 and as the 70th governor of Massachusetts from 2003 to 2007 ...

to be comparably smaller than in past elections.General Election: Romney vs. Obama
RealClearPolitics. Retrieved 2012-10-08. Though Romney pulled even with Obama during that year's Republican convention at the end of August, Obama opened up a three- or four-point lead during the Democratic convention the week after.

2016

In 2016, news sources and polls differed greatly on the size of the convention bounces received by Republican

Donald Trump Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who is the 47th president of the United States. A member of the Republican Party (United States), Republican Party, he served as the 45 ...

and Democrat

Hillary Clinton Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton ( Rodham; born October 26, 1947) is an American politician, lawyer and diplomat. She was the 67th United States secretary of state in the administration of Barack Obama from 2009 to 2013, a U.S. senator represent ...

after their respective conventions; however, the RealClearPolitics polling index showed both candidates trending upward leading up to and after their acceptance speeches.General Election: Trump vs. Clinton
RealClearPolitics. Retrieved 2019-02-05. Clinton's bounce lasted somewhat longer than Trump's.

2020

Democratic candidate

Joe Biden Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. (born November 20, 1942) is an American politician who was the 46th president of the United States from 2021 to 2025. A member of the Democratic Party (United States), Democratic Party, he served as the 47th vice p ...

, who held the lead over incumbent Republican Trump entering the Democratic convention, did not get a convention bounce, with a

CNBC CNBC is an American List of business news channels, business news channel owned by the NBCUniversal News Group, a unit of Comcast's NBCUniversal. The network broadcasts live business news and analysis programming during the morning, Day ...

Change Research Change Research is a polling firm based in the San Francisco Bay Area. It was first incorporated as a public benefit corporation in July 2017 by Mike Greenfield, a former data scientist at PayPal and LinkedIn, and Pat Reilly, a former Democrati ...

poll also indicating that the race had instead tightened in the

swing state In United States politics, a swing state (also known as battleground state, toss-up state, or purple state) is any state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican candidate in a statewide election, most often refe ...

s. Republican candidate

similarly did not receive a convention bounce after the Republican convention with a

CNN Cable News Network (CNN) is a multinational news organization operating, most notably, a website and a TV channel headquartered in Atlanta. Founded in 1980 by American media proprietor Ted Turner and Reese Schonfeld as a 24-hour cable ne ...

poll indicating that the race remained unchanged after both conventions.

2024

Similarly to 2020, no clear convention bounce was observed for either former president Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, or Vice President

Kamala Harris Kamala Devi Harris ( ; born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who served as the 49th vice president of the United States from 2021 to 2025 under President Joe Biden. She is the first female, first African American, and ...

, the Democratic nominee. A convention bounce for Trump was considered hard to measure due to the impact of President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race on July 21, 2024, only three days after the convention ended on July 18, as well as the attempted assassination of Donald Trump on July 13, though some polls showed an increase in favorability for Trump. Harris also did not receive a convention bounce after the Democratic National Convention, with some speculating that her "bounce" had already occurred at the onset of her candidacy following the withdrawal of Joe Biden.

References

{{United States presidential elections Presidential elections in the United States United States presidential nominating conventions Political terminology of the United States