Continuous Individualized Risk Index (CIRI) (initialism pronounced
/ˈsɪri/) is to a set of probabilistic risk models utilizing
Bayesian statistics
Bayesian statistics ( or ) is a theory in the field of statistics based on the Bayesian interpretation of probability, where probability expresses a ''degree of belief'' in an event. The degree of belief may be based on prior knowledge about ...
for integrating diverse cancer
biomarker
In biomedical contexts, a biomarker, or biological marker, is a measurable indicator of some biological state or condition. Biomarkers are often measured and evaluated using blood, urine, or soft tissues to examine normal biological processes, ...
s over time to produce a unified prediction of outcome risk, as originally described by Kurtz, Esfahani, et al. (2019) from Ash Alizadeh's laboratory at Stanford. Inspired by in game
win probability models for predicting winners in sports and political elections, CIRI incorporates serial information obtained throughout a given patient's course to estimate a personalized estimate of various cancer-related risks over time.
CIRI models have been developed available for various cancer types, including
breast cancer
Breast cancer is a cancer that develops from breast tissue. Signs of breast cancer may include a Breast lump, lump in the breast, a change in breast shape, dimpling of the skin, Milk-rejection sign, milk rejection, fluid coming from the nipp ...
(BRCA),
diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), and
chronic lymphocytic leukemia
Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is a type of cancer that affects the blood and bone marrow. In CLL, the bone marrow makes too many lymphocytes, which are a type of white blood cell. In patients with CLL, B cell lymphocytes can begin to colle ...
(CLL).The serial information integrated can be diverse, including choice of therapy and the associated responses observed, whether using
liquid biopsies or radiological studies, pathological and other dynamic measurements.
References
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Bayesian statistics
Prediction