A conflict continuum is a model or concept various
social science
Social science (often rendered in the plural as the social sciences) is one of the branches of science, devoted to the study of societies and the relationships among members within those societies. The term was formerly used to refer to the ...
researchers use when modeling conflict on a continuum from low to high-intensity, such as from aggression to irritation to explosiveness.
The mathematical model of
game theory
Game theory is the study of mathematical models of strategic interactions. It has applications in many fields of social science, and is used extensively in economics, logic, systems science and computer science. Initially, game theory addressed ...
originally posited only a winner and a loser (a
zero-sum game
Zero-sum game is a Mathematical model, mathematical representation in game theory and economic theory of a situation that involves two competition, competing entities, where the result is an advantage for one side and an equivalent loss for the o ...
) in a conflict, but was extended to
cooperation
Cooperation (written as co-operation in British English and, with a varied usage along time, coöperation) takes place when a group of organisms works or acts together for a collective benefit to the group as opposed to working in competition ...
(a win-win situation and a
non-zero sum game), and lets users specify any point on a scale between cooperation,
[ ]peace
Peace is a state of harmony in the absence of hostility and violence, and everything that discusses achieving human welfare through justice and peaceful conditions. In a societal sense, peace is commonly used to mean a lack of conflict (suc ...
,[A state of ]Nash equilibrium
In game theory, the Nash equilibrium is the most commonly used solution concept for non-cooperative games. A Nash equilibrium is a situation where no player could gain by changing their own strategy (holding all other players' strategies fixed) ...
rivalry
A rivalry is the state of two people or groups engaging in a lasting competitive relationship. Rivalry is the "against each other" spirit between two competing sides. The relationship itself may also be called "a rivalry", and each participant ...
, contest, crisis,[James McConvill]
Chief of Staff paper #1, Headquarters, Department of the Army (16 March 2021) Army Multi-Domain Transformation: Ready to Win in Competition and Conflict
unclassified version and conflict among stakeholders.
Overview
By the decade of the 2010s, military planners realized that additional capabilities in communications, sensors, and weapons countermeasures made it possible for competitors to react to a contestant's moves in the "gray zone" just short of conflict.Joint Staff
The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) is the body of the most senior uniformed leaders within the United States Department of Defense, which advises the president of the United States, the United States Secretary of Defense, secretary of defense, ...
's Joint Concept for Integrated Campaigning (JCIC), up to the point just short of armed conflict, while noting Perkins' connection to deterrence in the continuum.[''Standoff'', Noun: A deadlocked confrontation between antagonists.] sometimes measured by the distance between them (standoff distance
Standoff distance is a security term that refers to measures to prevent unscreened and potentially threatening people and vehicles from approaching within a certain distance of a building, car, or other shelter, roadblock or other location, or to ...
). For antagonists in a non-zero sum game, von Neumann and Morgenstern showed in 1944 that this condition is equivalent to a zero-sum game with +1 antagonists, where the +1st player ("the fictitious player") is not an entity.[ Rather, the fictitious player represents the global profit (or loss) of the players in the non-zero sum game.]Tibor Scitovsky
Tibor de Scitovsky, also known as Tibor Scitovsky (November 3, 1910 – June 1, 2002), was a Hungarian-born, American economist best known for his writing on the nature of people's happiness in relation to consumption. He was an associate ...
's terminology (more commonly known as the Kaldor–Hicks criterion), this global profit (or loss) of the +1st player represents the amount that the gainers would have been prepared to pay to the losers (or, in a global loss, the global amount that the players have lost in total), in order to attain a desired global policy.Overmatch
Overmatch is a concept in modern military thinking which prizes having overwhelming advantages over an adversary to a more significant margin than in traditional warfare. It is related to military superiority. Overmatch uses a military force's "c ...
'' is the condition where protagonist A is able to present multiple dilemmas[ to an antagonist E. Thus, if E can recognize that E risks total destruction (annihilation),][ then it is possible to bring an end to conflict between A and E. If A can bring about overmatch for all E's, the ]hegemony
Hegemony (, , ) is the political, economic, and military predominance of one State (polity), state over other states, either regional or global.
In Ancient Greece (ca. 8th BC – AD 6th c.), hegemony denoted the politico-military dominance of ...
of A would result, temporarily. In other confrontations between A and the Es, ''deterrence'' can be the mutual recognition that power need not be used to destroy one another (mutually assured destruction
Mutual assured destruction (MAD) is a doctrine of military strategy and national security policy which posits that a full-scale use of nuclear weapons by an attacker on a nuclear-armed defender with second-strike capabilities would result in ...
). Instead, A might display or project
A project is a type of assignment, typically involving research or design, that is carefully planned to achieve a specific objective.
An alternative view sees a project managerially as a sequence of events: a "set of interrelated tasks to be ...
its power to the Es as a substitute for battle with them.[Yasuhito Tanaka (9 Sep 2018) On zero-sum game formulation of non zero-sum game]
/ref> If A's power can remain leashed (potential
Potential generally refers to a currently unrealized ability. The term is used in a wide variety of fields, from physics to the social sciences to indicate things that are in a state where they are able to change in ways ranging from the simple r ...
rather than kinetic) then soft power
In politics (and particularly in international politics), soft power is the ability to co-option, co-opt rather than coerce (in contrast with hard power). It involves shaping the preferences of others through appeal and attraction. Soft power is ...
and hard power
In politics, hard power is the use of military and economics, economic means to social influence, influence the behavior or interests of other political bodies. This form of political power is often aggressive (coercion), and is most immediately ...
are also optional possibilities on a continuum of possible conflict between A and the Es.[Matthew Rothenberg (6/19/2019) For the industrial Internet of Things, defense in depth is a requirement]
/ref>
Various continuum models
Elise Boulding's conflict continuum
Elise M. Boulding was a Quaker sociologist influenced by the events of World War II
World War II or the Second World War (1 September 1939 – 2 September 1945) was a World war, global conflict between two coalitions: the Allies of World War II, Allies and the Axis powers. World War II by country, Nearly all of the wo ...
. Examining how war
War is an armed conflict between the armed forces of states, or between governmental forces and armed groups that are organized under a certain command structure and have the capacity to sustain military operations, or between such organi ...
becomes peace
Peace is a state of harmony in the absence of hostility and violence, and everything that discusses achieving human welfare through justice and peaceful conditions. In a societal sense, peace is commonly used to mean a lack of conflict (suc ...
, she posited a continuum between [
::
]
Andra Medea's types of conflict
Theorist Andra Medea seeks to explain how individuals
An individual is one that exists as a distinct entity. Individuality (or self-hood) is the state or quality of living as an individual; particularly (in the case of humans) as a person unique from other people and possessing one's own needs or g ...
, small groups, organizations
An organization or organisation ( Commonwealth English; see spelling differences) is an entity—such as a company, or corporation or an institution (formal organization), or an association—comprising one or more people and having a par ...
, families
Family (from ) is a group of people related either by consanguinity (by recognized birth) or affinity (by marriage or other relationship). It forms the basis for social order. Ideally, families offer predictability, structure, and safety as ...
, ethnicities
An ethnicity or ethnic group is a group of people with shared attributes, which they collectively believe to have, and long-term endogamy. Ethnicities share attributes like language, culture, common sets of ancestry, traditions, society, rel ...
, and even whole nations
A nation is a type of social organization where a collective identity, a national identity, has emerged from a combination of shared features across a given population, such as language, history, ethnicity, culture, territory, or societ ...
function when disputes arise between them. She posits that there are four types or levels of conflict, each operating under distinct rules:[
]
Perkins' continuum of conflict
Before 2017, winning a conflict was seen as the objective of the US Army.[Army Operating Concept: Win in a Complex World —Gen. David G. Perkins]
/ref> By 2018, the US Air Force showed it is important to reformulate this strategy, as part of a larger process of (MDO), which involve more than an army in a theater of war (World War II
World War II or the Second World War (1 September 1939 – 2 September 1945) was a World war, global conflict between two coalitions: the Allies of World War II, Allies and the Axis powers. World War II by country, Nearly all of the wo ...
and Cold War
The Cold War was a period of global Geopolitics, geopolitical rivalry between the United States (US) and the Soviet Union (USSR) and their respective allies, the capitalist Western Bloc and communist Eastern Bloc, which lasted from 1947 unt ...
model). Specifically, MDO can offer options short of war, which can defuse armed conflict from total war
Total war is a type of warfare that includes any and all (including civilian-associated) resources and infrastructure as legitimate military targets, mobilises all of the resources of society to fight the war, and gives priority to warfare ov ...
into deterrence, compromise, or cooperation between competitors.[Douglas A. Ollivant (June 17, 2019) On Will and War]
/ref>[MDO Challenge (15 May 2019) *Start here* MDO 101]
– General explanation of multi-domain operations (MDO) for the layma
Multi Domain Operations – Oct. 2, 2019
– Overview video 7:41 illustrating TRADOC pamphlet TP 525-3-1.[Lt. Col. Edward A. Fraser and Command Sgt. Maj. Robert V. Abernethy (April 1, 2019) Strong Europe: A continental-scale combat sustainment laboratory]
– Includes Euler diagram
An Euler diagram (, ) is a diagrammatic means of representing Set (mathematics), sets and their relationships. They are particularly useful for explaining complex hierarchies and overlapping definitions. They are similar to another set diagrammi ...
of European alliances, partners, competitors.[Sgt. LaShic Patterson (August 6, 2019) 2/2CR unloads vehicles at the Poti port for AS19]
– Agile Spirit 19: Vaziani Military Base, Tbilisi, Georgia
Tbilisi ( ; ka, თბილისი, ), in some languages still known by its pre-1936 name Tiflis ( ), ( ka, ტფილისი, tr ) is the Capital city, capital and List of cities and towns in Georgia (country), largest city of Georgia ( ...
[Maj. Kevin Sandell, U.S. Army Central Public Affairs (June 26, 2019) U.S. physician teaches Steppe Eagle 19 medical participants to 'race the Reaper']
/ref>[Sydney J. Freedberg, Jr]
(June 13, 2019) Poland Deal Lays Groundwork For Division-Strength Deployment
A division-scale exercise next year in Europe, Defender 2020, will be the largest in a quarter-century. Establishes 7 major elements going forward beyond 2020.[Wendover Production]
(27 August 2019) The US' Overseas Military Base Strategy
Estimates 800 current DoD bases, but some of them are transitory. Video clip.
Multi-domain operations occur as overlapped, integrated operation of cyberspace, space (including satellite operations), land, maritime, and air.[YouTub]
(Sep 16, 2015) Perkins discusses operationalizing the Army Operating Concept
/ref> A multi-domain task force was set up in 2018 in I Corps for the Pacific.[Gen. David G. Perkins, U.S. Arm]
November–December -2017/Multi-Domain-Battle-The-Advent-of-Twenty-First-Century-War/ (November–December 2017) ''Military Review'' III "Multi-Domain Battle The Advent of Twenty-First Century War"
/ref>[Maj. Richard W. Gibso]
(October 1, 2018) Applying Multi-Domain Concepts Against Counter-Space Threats
[ASHLEY TOWNSHEND, THOMAS LONERGAN, AND TOBY WARDEN]
(29 Sep 2021) THE U.S.-AUSTRALIAN ALLIANCE NEEDS A STRATEGY TO DETER CHINA'S GRAY-ZONE COERCION
/ref> Multi-domain battalions, which first stood up in 2019, comprise a single unit for air, land, space, and cyber domains.[Sydney J. Freedberg Jr]
(24 Jan 2019) Hack, Jam, Sense, & Shoot: Army Creates 1st Multi-Domain Unit
an MDO BN for Targeting, I Corps
The MDO model recognizes that near-peer competitors might not actually seek conflict with each other, but perhaps merely a near-term advantage in order to buy time for themselves[Caitlin Doornbo]
/ref>space plane
A spaceplane is a vehicle that can fly and glide as an aircraft in Earth's atmosphere and function as a spacecraft in outer space. To do so, spaceplanes must incorporate features of both aircraft and spacecraft. Orbital spaceplanes tend ...
can change its orbit; this capability has military applications.[The X-37B ]space plane
A spaceplane is a vehicle that can fly and glide as an aircraft in Earth's atmosphere and function as a spacecraft in outer space. To do so, spaceplanes must incorporate features of both aircraft and spacecraft. Orbital spaceplanes tend ...
can change its orbit:
*
*
* David, Leonar
(28 Jun 2022) US military's mysterious X-37B space plane zooms toward orbital record
* On July 15, 2020, Cosmos 2543 emitted a kinetic vehicle, which emitted a tertiary object. This maneuver is interpreted as a test of anti-satellite capability.[Theresa Hitchens]
(23 July 2020) Russian Sat Spits Out High-Speed Object In Likely ASAT Test
/ref>[The Economis]
(Aug 9th 2020) A Russian satellite weapon shows the danger of hazy rules in space
/ref> Cosmos 2542 has been tailing USA-245, a KH-11
The KH-11 KENNEN (later renamed CRYSTAL,p.199-200 then Evolved Enhanced CRYSTAL System, and codenamed 1010 and Key Hole) is a type of reconnaissance satellite first launched by the American National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) in December 19 ...
.[Joseph Trevithic]
(30 January 2020) A Russian "Inspector" spacecraft now appears to be shadowing an American spy satellite
USA-245 is a KH-11 series satellite; Cosmos 2542 is now tailing the USA 245's movements with a precision of 150 to 300 kilometers. ''See Hall thruster'' Other multi-domain operations short of war,[Catherine Ki]
(21 June 2019) Vox Sentences: The strike that never happened
/ref> but still escalating the conflict, might include the shooting-down of military drones.[Paul McCleary]
(14 June 2019) Centcom confirms Reaper shoot-down, says Iran and Houthis fired at drones
/ref>[Paul McLear]
(September 23, 2019) NATO's not ready for Saudi-Style drone attacks; 'It's a serious problem'
/ref> By May 2023, a robotic Chinese space plane (similar to the X-37B) in orbit from October 2022 to May 2023 had successfully released, and then recaptured an orbiting object.[Joanna Thompso]
(21 May 2023) China's mysterious space plane released an unidentified 'object' in orbit, US intelligence reveals
/ref> In August 2023, USSF Space Systems Command and the NRO revealed countermeasures to China's maneuverable space vehicles that are in geosynchronous orbit.[Emma Pool]
(31 Aug 2023) The US Satellite Intelligence Agency is not so silent about the new "Silent Barker" mission
is NRO's GSSAP maneuverable replacement, will keep custody of tracked vehicles.
*Theresa Hitchen
(31 Aug 2023) SilentBarker 'watchdog' to be 'exponential' leap in DoD monitoring of Chinese, Russian sats
in geosynchronous orbits
Other operations short of war in 2018 include undeclared conflicts, involving proxy military units funded by oligarchs,Voice of America
Voice of America (VOA or VoA) is an international broadcasting network funded by the federal government of the United States that by law has editorial independence from the government. It is the largest and oldest of the American internation ...
,
Putin calls Russian mercenaries private contractors, claims they are not 'engaged in combat'
''Polygraph.info'', published 22 June 2019, accessed 14 December 2023Battle of Khasham
The Battle of Khasham, also known as the Battle of Conoco Fields, was a military engagement of the Syrian civil war fought on 7 February 2018 near the towns of Khasham and Al Tabiyeh in the Deir ez-Zor Governorate, Syria. The Operation Inher ...
in Syria, January 2018[James Kitfiel]
(16 October 2018) Russia's strategy, ISIS' future & countering China: CJCS Dunford speaks
/ref>
Destruction of infrastructure such as fuel pipelines,[Reuter]
(8 May 2021) Cyber attack shuts down top U.S. fuel pipeline network
/ref>[BB]
(May 10, 2021) US Scrambles to Keep Fuel Flowing After Pipeline Cyberattack. Russian Cybercriminals Suspected
/ref>[Dustin Vol]
(10 May 2021) U.S. Blames Criminal Group in Colonial Pipeline Hack
Darkside[Dustin Vol]
Associated Press (10 May 2021) US invokes emergency powers after cyberattack shuts crucial fuel pipeline
/ref>[Brad D William]
(27 May 2021) DHS Cyber Order Signals Shift To 'Mandatory Measures'
/ref> the energy grid
An electrical grid (or electricity network) is an interconnected network for electricity delivery from producers to consumers. Electrical grids consist of power stations, electrical substations to step voltage up or down, electric power transm ...
,[ Protecting electricity supply. Compromised infrastructure by rival providers.][A probe of the grid was detected by Department of Energy, as reported in April 2019:
*
*
*
* More detail on the cyber attack was reported by North American Electric Reliability Corporation 9 July 2019.] or the GPS
The Global Positioning System (GPS) is a satellite-based hyperbolic navigation system owned by the United States Space Force and operated by Mission Delta 31. It is one of the global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) that provide geol ...
network, or the financial market
A financial market is a market in which people trade financial securities and derivatives at low transaction costs. Some of the securities include stocks and bonds, raw materials and precious metals, which are known in the financial marke ...
s, or confidence in national law and order may be goals for partners, competitors, or adversaries,[Koebler, et. al. ][Kyle Rempfer ]
(20 September 2019) Army's new chief looks to prep the force for large-scale combat
40th CSA mulls deployments for Large-Scale Combat Operations – LSCO[BBC
]
Directed energy attacks on US embassies, and even the White House are cropping up, as reported in April 2021.[Katie Bo Williams and Jeremy Her]
*See Havana syndrome
Havana syndrome, also known as anomalous health incidents (AHIs), is a disputed medical condition. Starting in 2016, U.S. and Canadian government officials and their families reported symptoms of AHIs in about a dozen overseas locations. Repor ...
—[https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/white-house-acknowledges-mysterious-health-attacks-occurred-us/story?id=77562804&cid=clicksource_4380645_1_heads_hero_live_hero_hed Conor Finnegan and Ben Gittleson (May 7, 2021) White House acknowledges mysterious health attacks occurred in US, reviewing intel on incidents][LARA SELIGMAN and ANDREW DESIDERI]
(05/10/2021) Russian spy unit suspected of directed-energy attacks on U.S. personnel
/ref>
Conflicts of belief
A belief is a subjective Attitude (psychology), attitude that something is truth, true or a State of affairs (philosophy), state of affairs is the case. A subjective attitude is a mental state of having some Life stance, stance, take, or opinion ...
, and conflicts of their underlying narratives can lead to social disorder, sometimes resulting in depression or suicide
Suicide is the act of intentionally causing one's own death.
Risk factors for suicide include mental disorders, physical disorders, and substance abuse. Some suicides are impulsive acts driven by stress (such as from financial or ac ...
.[Star, Susan Leigh; Bowker, Geoffrey C.; Neumann, Laura J. (August 1997).]
Transparency At Different Levels of Scale: Convergence between Information Artifacts and Social Worlds
.
Thus, disinformation
Disinformation is misleading content deliberately spread to deceive people, or to secure economic or political gain and which may cause public harm. Disinformation is an orchestrated adversarial activity in which actors employ strategic dece ...
could be a tactic in the spectrum of conflict.[MICHAEL STARR, AARON REICH, REUTERS Jerusalem Pos]
(13 Feb 2022) Ukrainian president clarifies 'ironic' claim that Russia to attack on Wednesday
/ref>Davey Alba
Davey Alba is a technology reporter who covers Big Tech for Bloomberg News, after previously reporting on online disinformation for ''The New York Times''.
Early life and education
Davey Alba was born in Manila, Philippines, and attended De La ...
and Adam Satarian
(26 September 2019) At Least 70 Countries Have Had Disinformation Campaigns, Study Finds
the number of countries with political disinformation campaigns more than doubled to 70 in the last two years"—''The New York Times
''The New York Times'' (''NYT'') is an American daily newspaper based in New York City. ''The New York Times'' covers domestic, national, and international news, and publishes opinion pieces, investigative reports, and reviews. As one of ...
''
*Nataliya Vasilyev
(11 Apr 2022) Russian spy chief 'thrown in jail' as Vladimir Putin 'turns on security officials
150 FSB (successor to KGB) officers have been dismissed[Freedberg-- ]Sun Tzu
Sun Tzu (; zh, t=孫子, s=孙子, first= t, p=Sūnzǐ) may have been a Chinese General, military general, strategist, philosopher, and writer who lived during the Eastern Zhou period (771–256 BC). Sun Tzu is traditionally credited as the au ...
''The Art of War
''The Art of War'' is an ancient Chinese military treatise dating from the late Spring and Autumn period (roughly 5th century BC). The work, which is attributed to the ancient Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu ("Master Sun"), is compos ...
''
Chapter XIII, Commentary on Sun-Tzu's text in ''Small Wars Journal''
''See also the Lionel Giles translation, 191
'
Competition continuum
In 2021, the 40th Chief of Staff of the United States Army identified three dimensions of military competition: 1) narrative
A narrative, story, or tale is any account of a series of related events or experiences, whether non-fictional (memoir, biography, news report, documentary, travel literature, travelogue, etc.) or fictional (fairy tale, fable, legend, thriller ...
, 2) direct (zero-sum
Zero-sum game is a mathematical representation in game theory and economic theory of a situation that involves two competing entities, where the result is an advantage for one side and an equivalent loss for the other. In other words, player on ...
), and 3) indirect ( non-zero sum) competition.protagonist
A protagonist () is the main character of a story. The protagonist makes key decisions that affect the plot, primarily influencing the story and propelling it forward, and is often the character who faces the most significant obstacles. If a ...
. Alternatively, adversaries are deterred from military conflict against the protagonist.[Chief of Staff paper #2 (1 March 2021) The Army in Military Competition]
/ref>
If an adversary persists in direct competition, the protagonist simply continues to advance with direct competition, thereby gaining leverage over the adversary. The protagonist might find it possible only to impede the adversary; in this case, allies and partners may interoperate against the adversary for mutual advantage with the protagonist.[ however, the 40th Chief of Staff notes competition is an infinite game.]
Notes
Footnotes
References
{{Peace
Anthropology
Cognition
Peace and conflict studies