Colin J. Campbell (24 July 1931 – 13 November 2022) was a British petroleum geologist who predicted that oil production would

peak Peak or The Peak may refer to: Basic meanings Geology * Mountain peak ** Pyramidal peak, a mountaintop that has been sculpted by erosion to form a point Mathematics * Peak hour or rush hour, in traffic congestion * Peak (geometry), an (''n''-3)-d ...

by 2007. He claimed the consequences of this are uncertain but drastic, due to the world's dependency on

fossil fuel A fossil fuel is a flammable carbon compound- or hydrocarbon-containing material formed naturally in the Earth's crust from the buried remains of prehistoric organisms (animals, plants or microplanktons), a process that occurs within geolog ...

s for the vast majority of its energy. His theories have received wide attention but are disputed and have not significantly changed governmental energy policies at this time. To deal with declining global oil production, he proposed the Rimini protocol. Influential papers by Campbell include ''The Coming Oil Crisis'', written with Jean Laherrère in 1998 and credited with convincing the

International Energy Agency The International Energy Agency (IEA) is a Paris-based autonomous intergovernmental organization, established in 1974, that provides policy recommendations, analysis and data on the global energy sector. The 31 member countries and 13 associatio ...

of the coming peak; and ''The End of Cheap Oil'', published the same year in ''

Scientific American ''Scientific American'', informally abbreviated ''SciAm'' or sometimes ''SA'', is an American popular science magazine. Many scientists, including Albert Einstein and Nikola Tesla, have contributed articles to it, with more than 150 Nobel Pri ...

''. The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, founded by Campbell in 2000, has been gaining recognition in the recent years. The association has organised yearly international conferences since 2002. The most recent conference of the USA chapter (ASPO-USA) was at the University of Texas in Austin, TX on 30 November and 1 December 2012.

Remarks

The most famous

peak oil Peak oil is the point when global oil production reaches its maximum rate, after which it will begin to decline irreversibly. The main concern is that global transportation relies heavily on gasoline and diesel. Adoption of electric vehicles ...

petrogeologist is M. King Hubbert, who predicted in 1956 that oil production would peak in the United States between 1965 and 1970. US oil production peaked in 1970. Hubbert's theories, particularly his evaluation of oil availability in any given area reaching a peak, to be followed by inevitable and sometimes rapid decline, were expounded in his Hubbert peak theory, and became popular during the

1973 energy crisis In October 1973, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) announced that it was implementing a total oil embargo against countries that had supported Israel at any point during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, which began after E ...

, and during the

1979 energy crisis A drop in oil production in the wake of the Iranian revolution led to an energy crisis in 1979. Although the global oil supply only decreased by approximately four percent, the oil markets' reaction raised the price of crude oil drastically ...

when even the

United States Secretary of Energy The United States secretary of energy is the head of the United States Department of Energy, a member of the Cabinet of the United States and fifteenth in the United States presidential line of succession, presidential line of succession. The po ...

, James Schlesinger announced, as he left his post that year, that 'Mid-East production is unlikely to expand much, if at all, and is unlikely to drop below current levels'. (Wall Street Journal 1979). In December 2000 Colin Campbell warned in a public lecture held at the Clausthal University of Technology that

'There is, I think, a strong danger of some ill-considered military intervention to try to secure oil. A stock market crash seems inevitable, as some investment managers are now telling us. The global market may collapse because of high transport costs and global recession. Self-sufficiency will become a priority.'

Current debate

Global oil discovery peaked in 1964, and since the early 1980s oil production has outpaced new discoveries. According to Campbell: * There are no new potential

oil field A petroleum reservoir or oil and gas reservoir is a subsurface accumulation of hydrocarbons contained in porous or fractured rock formations. Such reservoirs form when kerogen (ancient plant matter) is created in surrounding rock by the prese ...

s sufficiently large to reduce this future

energy crisis An energy crisis or energy shortage is any significant Bottleneck (production), bottleneck in the supply of energy resources to an economy. In literature, it often refers to one of the energy sources used at a certain time and place, in particu ...

. * The reported

oil reserves An oil is any chemical polarity, nonpolar chemical substance that is composed primarily of hydrocarbons and is hydrophobe, hydrophobic (does not mix with water) and lipophilicity, lipophilic (mixes with other oils). Oils are usually flammable ...

of many

OPEC The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC ) is an organization enabling the co-operation of leading oil-producing and oil-dependent countries in order to collectively influence the global oil market and maximize Profit (eco ...

countries are inflated, to increase their quotas, or improve their chance of getting a loan from the

World Bank The World Bank is an international financial institution that provides loans and Grant (money), grants to the governments of Least developed countries, low- and Developing country, middle-income countries for the purposes of economic development ...

. * The practice of gradually adding new discoveries to a country's list of ''proven reserves'', instead of all at once, artificially inflates the current rate of discovery. In 1989 Campbell claimed that there would be a shortage towards the late 1990s. In 1990 he claimed that 1998 would represent a "depletion midpoint."C.J. Campbell, ''Evolution of oil assessments''.
/ref> These early assessments were, however, according to Campbell himself, "based on public domain data, before the degree of misreporting by industry and governments was appreciated." A 2007 study of oil depletion by the UK Energy Research Centre stated that Campbell failed to take into account future reserve growth in existing fields. The authors concluded that curve-fitting techniques, such as Campbell's, tended to underestimate ultimate recoverable reserves. The report cited Campbell's record of premature peak predictions, systematically shifting forward over time, as evidence that his methodology was flawed. The US Department of Energy report ''Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management'', often referred to as the ''Hirsch Report'', proposes an urgent mitigation approach to deal with the possibility of oil production going into decline in the immediate future. It states: "The peaking of world oil production presents the US and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking."

Activities

Campbell had over 40 years of experience in the

oil industry The petroleum industry, also known as the oil industry, includes the global processes of exploration, extraction, refining, transportation (often by oil tankers and pipelines), and marketing of petroleum products. The largest volume products ...

. He was educated at St Paul's School and

Wadham College, Oxford Wadham College ( ) is a Colleges of the University of Oxford, constituent college of the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom. It is located in the centre of Oxford, at the intersection of Broad Street, Oxford, Broad Street and Parks Road ...

(BA Geology 1954, MA and DPhil 1957), and worked as a petroleum geologist in the field, as a manager, and as a consultant. He was employed by

Oxford University The University of Oxford is a collegiate research university in Oxford, England. There is evidence of teaching as early as 1096, making it the oldest university in the English-speaking world and the second-oldest continuously operating u ...

Texaco Texaco, Inc. ("The Texas Company") is an American Petroleum, oil brand owned and operated by Chevron Corporation. Its flagship product is its Gasoline, fuel "Texaco with Techron". It also owned the Havoline motor oil brand. Texaco was an Independ ...

British Petroleum BP p.l.c. (formerly The British Petroleum Company p.l.c. and BP Amoco p.l.c.; stylised in all lowercase) is a British multinational oil and gas company headquartered in London, England. It is one of the oil and gas " supermajors" and one of ...

Amoco Amoco ( ) is a brand of filling station, fuel stations operating in the United States and owned by British conglomerate BP since 1998. The Amoco Corporation was an American chemical and petroleum, oil company, founded by Standard Oil Company i ...

, Shenandoah Oil,

Norsk Hydro Norsk Hydro ASA (often referred to as just ''Hydro'') is a Norway, Norwegian aluminium and renewable energy company, headquartered in Oslo. It is one of the largest aluminium companies worldwide. It has operations in some 50 countries around th ...

, and Petrofina, and worked with the Bulgarian and Swedish governments. His writing included two books and more than 150 papers. Later, he founded the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, was affiliated with

Petroconsultants Petroconsultants was an oil and gas exploration and scouting information company formed in 1968 in Geneva to take over the activities of Harry Wassall and Associates, which was founded in Havana in 1956. Petroconsultants collected information about ...

in Geneva, was a trustee of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre in London. He conducted research on the oil peak, and he also tried to build public awareness of the issue, which included lecturing extensively. He addressed a committee of the

British House of Commons The House of Commons is the lower house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom. Like the upper house, the House of Lords, it meets in the Palace of Westminster in London, England. The House of Commons is an elected body consisting of 650 memb ...

, and officials from investment and automotive companies. He appeared in the documentary films '' The End of Suburbia'', '' Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash'', and ''Peak Oil – Imposed by Nature''.

Personal life

Campbell resided in Ballydehob, a small town in South West Cork, Ireland with his wife Bobbins. He died at his home in Ireland on 13 November 2022, at the age of 91.

Quotes

"But this peak has no real great significance, it is the perception and the vision of the long decline that comes into sight on the other side of the peak. That's really what matters." (speaking on the

phenomenon, from ''End of Oil'' (2005)) "It's quite a simple theory and one that any beer drinker understands. The glass starts full and ends empty and the faster you drink it the quicker it's gone." (on peak oil, in 2007)"World oil supplies are set to run out faster than expected, warn scientists", ''The Independent'', 14 June 2007
/ref> "Banks had been lending more than they had on deposit assuming that tomorrow's growth was collateral for today's debt but failing to see that growth depends on growing, cheap, oil-based energy...So in short, Peak Oil means that debt goes bad." (speaking on the 2008 crash at the New Energy Era Forum, 8 May 2012)

References

External links

* Arrival of Peak Oil as an Historic Event: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yaiHXt1AtO0' (Sept. 2009 video interview with Colin Campbell by Dave Bowden, Oil Education TV / SustainableMedia.net) * Peak Oil: Off Limits to Government & Industry: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSrxwO6i0A4' (Sept. 2009 video interview with Colin Campbell by Dave Bowden, Oil Education TV / SustainableMedia.net)

by Dr. Colin J. Campbell, at the Clausthal University of Technology, Dec. 2000.
The Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO)
– official website
ASPO Ireland
(Colin Campbell's Office)
Colin J. Campbell
from the Coming Global Oil Crisis. 2004.
Colin Campbell interviewed
by Julian Darley. Global Public Media, 18 December 2002.
ASPO newsletter
by Dr. Colin J. Campbell.
ASPO depletion profiles by country
by Dr. Colin J. Campbell.

by Dr. Colin J. Campbell.
ASPO Lisbon Conference 2005

Speech by Dr. Colin J. Campbell
at 'Fuelling the Future' conference, in Kinsale, Ireland, June 2005.
Energy Bulletin

Peak Oil – A Turning Point for Mankind
Dr. Colin J. Campbell speaking at the New Energy Era Form, 8 May 2012 {{DEFAULTSORT:Campbell, Colin 1931 births 2022 deaths Alumni of Wadham College, Oxford 20th-century British geologists 21st-century British geologists People in the petroleum industry People educated at St Paul's School, London Scientists from Berlin People from Ballydehob Scientists from County Cork