Coincidence
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A coincidence is a remarkable concurrence of events or circumstances that have no apparent causal connection with one another. The perception of remarkable coincidences may lead to
supernatural Supernatural phenomena or entities are those beyond the Scientific law, laws of nature. The term is derived from Medieval Latin , from Latin 'above, beyond, outside of' + 'nature'. Although the corollary term "nature" has had multiple meanin ...
,
occult The occult () is a category of esoteric or supernatural beliefs and practices which generally fall outside the scope of organized religion and science, encompassing phenomena involving a 'hidden' or 'secret' agency, such as magic and mysti ...
, or paranormal claims, or it may lead to belief in fatalism, which is a doctrine that events will happen in the exact manner of a predetermined plan. In general, the perception of coincidence, for lack of more sophisticated explanations, can serve as a link to
folk psychology Folk psychology, commonsense psychology, or naïve psychology is the ordinary, intuitive, or non-expert understanding, explanation, and rationalization of people's behaviors and Cognitive psychology, mental states. In philosophy of mind and cognit ...
and philosophy. From a
statistical Statistics (from German language, German: ', "description of a State (polity), state, a country") is the discipline that concerns the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data. In applying statistics to a s ...
perspective, coincidences are inevitable and often less remarkable than they may appear intuitively. Usually, coincidences are chance events with underestimated
probability Probability is a branch of mathematics and statistics concerning events and numerical descriptions of how likely they are to occur. The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1; the larger the probability, the more likely an e ...
. An example is the birthday problem, which shows that the
probability Probability is a branch of mathematics and statistics concerning events and numerical descriptions of how likely they are to occur. The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1; the larger the probability, the more likely an e ...
of two persons having the same birthday already exceeds 50% in a group of only 23 persons. Generalizations of the birthday problem are a key tool used for mathematically modelling coincidences.M. Pollanen (2024) ''A Double Birthday Paradox in the Study of Coincidences'',
Mathematics Mathematics is a field of study that discovers and organizes methods, Mathematical theory, theories and theorems that are developed and Mathematical proof, proved for the needs of empirical sciences and mathematics itself. There are many ar ...
23(24), 3882. https://doi.org/10.3390/math12243882


Etymology

The first known usage of the word coincidence is from c. 1605 with the meaning "exact correspondence in substance or nature" from the French ''coincidence'', from ''coincider'', from Medieval Latin ''coincidere''. The definition evolved in the 1640s as "occurrence or existence during the same time". The word was introduced to English readers in the 1650s by Sir Thomas Browne, in ''A Letter to a Friend'' (circa 1656 pub. 1690) and in his discourse '' The Garden of Cyrus'' (1658).


Synchronicity

Swiss psychiatrist Carl Jung developed a theory that states that remarkable coincidences occur because of what he called " synchronicity," which he defined as an "acausal connecting principle." One of Kammerer's passions was collecting coincidences. He published a book titled ''Das Gesetz der Serie'' (''The Law of Series''), which has not been translated into English. In this book, he recounted 100 or so anecdotes of coincidences that led him to formulate his theory of seriality. He postulated that all events are connected by waves of seriality. Kammerer was known to make notes in public parks of how many people were passing by, how many of them carried umbrellas, etc.
Albert Einstein Albert Einstein (14 March 187918 April 1955) was a German-born theoretical physicist who is best known for developing the theory of relativity. Einstein also made important contributions to quantum mechanics. His mass–energy equivalence f ...
called the idea of seriality "interesting and by no means absurd." Carl Jung drew upon Kammerer's work in his book ''Synchronicity''. A coincidence lacks an apparent causal connection. A coincidence may be synchronicity — the experience of events that are causally unrelated — and yet their occurrence together has meaning for the person who observes them. To be counted as synchronicity, the events should be unlikely to occur together by chance, but this is questioned because there is usually a chance, no matter how small and in vast numbers of opportunities such coincidences do happen by chance if it is only non-zero (see law of truly large numbers). Some skeptics (e.g., Georges Charpak and Henri Broch) argue synchronicity is merely an instance of apophenia. They argue that probability and statistical theory (exemplified, e.g., in Littlewood's law) suffice to explain remarkable coincidences. David Lane & Andrea Diem Lane, 2010
Desultory Decussation: Where Littlewood’s Law of Miracles meets Jung’s Synchronicity
www.integralworld.net
Charles Fort also compiled hundreds of accounts of interesting coincidences and strange phenomena.


Causality

Measuring the
probability Probability is a branch of mathematics and statistics concerning events and numerical descriptions of how likely they are to occur. The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1; the larger the probability, the more likely an e ...
of a series of coincidences is the most common method of distinguishing a coincidence from causally connected events. To establish cause and effect (i.e., causality) is notoriously difficult, as is expressed by the commonly heard statement that " correlation does not imply causation." In
statistics Statistics (from German language, German: ', "description of a State (polity), state, a country") is the discipline that concerns the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data. In applying statistics to a s ...
, it is generally accepted that observational studies can give hints but can never establish cause and effect. But, considering the probability paradox (see Koestler's quote above), it appears that the larger the set of coincidences, the more certainty increases, and the more it seems that there is some cause behind a remarkable coincidence.


See also

* Alignments of random points * Bible code *'' Coincidance'' * Confirmation bias * Ideas of reference and delusions of reference * Ley line * Mathematical coincidence * Pareidolia * Post hoc ergo propter hoc * '' The Roots of Coincidence'' * ''Synchronicity'' (book) * Synchronism


References


Bibliography

* David Marks: '' The Psychology of the Psychic''. pp. 227–46 * Joseph Mazur (2016). ''Fluke: The Maths and Myths of Coincidences'', London: Oneworld Publications.


Further reading

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External links

{{Wikiquote, coincidence
Collection of Historical Coincidence
nephiliman.com (web.archive.org)
Unlikely Events and Coincidence
Austin Society to Oppose Pseudoscience
Why coincidences happen
UnderstandingUncertainty.org
The Cambridge Coincidences Collection
University of Cambridge Statslab
The mathematics of coincidental meetings
Causality Concepts in metaphysics Philosophy of physics Philosophy of time Synchronicity Articles containing video clips