Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) is a company that develops

weather Weather is the state of the atmosphere, describing for example the degree to which it is hot or cold, wet or dry, calm or stormy, clear or cloud cover, cloudy. On Earth, most weather phenomena occur in the lowest layer of the planet's atmo ...

and

climate Climate is the long-term weather pattern in a region, typically averaged over 30 years. More rigorously, it is the mean and variability of meteorological variables over a time spanning from months to millions of years. Some of the meteoro ...

forecast tools and provides research and consulting services to manage weather and climate risks. CFAN was started in 2006 by

Judith Curry Judith A. Curry (born ) is an American climatologist and former chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology. Her research interests include hurricanes, remote sensing, atmospheric modeling, polar c ...

and Peter Webster in

Georgia Tech The Georgia Institute of Technology (commonly referred to as Georgia Tech, GT, and simply Tech or the Institute) is a public research university and institute of technology in Atlanta, Georgia, United States. Established in 1885, it has the lar ...

’s Enterprise Innovation Institute VentureLab program.

Background

Climate Forecast Applications in Bangladesh was among CFAN's first projects. In 1998, 60% of Bangladesh had floods for over three months as the

Brahmaputra River The Brahmaputra is a trans-boundary river which flows through Southwestern China, Northeastern India, and Bangladesh. It is known as Brahmaputra or Luit in Assamese language, Assamese, Yarlung Tsangpo in Lhasa Tibetan, Tibetan, the Siang/Dihan ...

and

Ganges The Ganges ( ; in India: Ganga, ; in Bangladesh: Padma, ). "The Ganges Basin, known in India as the Ganga and in Bangladesh as the Padma, is an international which goes through India, Bangladesh, Nepal and China." is a trans-boundary rive ...

flooded simultaneously. CFAN developed a 1 to 10 day hydrologic forecast model in 2000, and the model became operational in 2003. The Bangkok, Thailand-based Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES) continues use of the model for Bangladesh. Following three years of summer floods in Pakistan, a model was developed for the Indus Valley but has not been used by Pakistan authorities. CFAN has continued to call for improved weather forecasts for South Asia, particularly following

Cyclone Nargis Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis (; , ) was an extremely destructive and deadly tropical cyclone that caused the worst natural disaster in the recorded history of Myanmar during early May 2008. The cyclone made landfall in Myanmar on Friday ...

's effect on Myanmar and the storm surge from

Super Typhoon Haiyan Typhoon Haiyan, known in the Philippines as Super Typhoon Yolanda, was an extremely powerful and catastrophic tropical cyclone that is among the most powerful tropical cyclones ever recorded. Upon making landfall, Haiyan devastated portions ...

Reception

In ''Global Flood Hazard: Applications in Modeling, Mapping, and Forecasting'', CFAN was called a "notable example" for flood early warning processes, and their system was praised for effectiveness and cost. Their probabilistic forecasts are made available online for customers and can be used for operational and disaster management. In ''Reducing Disaster: Early Warning Systems For Climate Change'', CFAN is cited as an example of "strong institutional networking and commitments" that have facilitated development of flood forecasting schemes and their application, at the international level. In ''Flood Forecasting: A Global Perspective'' CFAN's Bangladesh flood timing and flood risk predictions for the Brahmaputra River were characterized as "skillful" despite the "considerable overestimation or underestimation of peak magnitudes", with predictions for the Ganges being "less skillful".

References

{{Computer modeling Forecasting Forecasting organizations Weather forecasting Weather events in Bangladesh Numerical climate and weather models