Climate Change In Africa

Climate change in Africa is an increasingly serious threat as Africa is among the most vulnerable continents to the effects of climate change.Niang, I.; O. C. Ruppel; M. A. Abdrabo; A. Essel; C. Lennard; J. Padgham, and P. Urquhart, 2014: Africa. In: ''Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability''. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change arros, V. R.; C. B. Field; D. J. Dokken et al. (eds.) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1199–1265. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap22_FINAL.pdf Some sources even classify Africa as "the most vulnerable continent on Earth". Climate change and climate variability will likely reduce agricultural production, food security and water security. As a result, there will be negative consequences on people's lives and sustainable development in Africa.

Over the coming decades, warming from climate change is expected across almost all the Earth's surface, and global mean rainfall will increase. Currently, Africa is warming faster than the rest of the world on average. Large portions of the continent may become uninhabitable as a result of the rapid effects of climate change, which would have disastrous effects on human health, food security, and poverty. Regional effects on rainfall in the tropics are expected to be much more spatially variable. The direction of change at any one location is often less certain.

Observed surface temperatures have generally increased by about 1 °C in Africa since the late 19th century to the early 21st century. In the Sahel, the increase has been as much as 3 °C for the minimum temperature at the end of the dry season. Data for temperature and rainfall shows discrepancies from the norm, both in timing and location.

For instance, Kenya has a high vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. The main climate hazards include droughts and floods as rainfall will likely become more intense and less predictable. Climate models predict that temperatures will rise by 0.5 to 2 °C. In the informal urban settlements of Nairobi the urban heat island effect adds to the problem as it creates even warmer ambient temperatures. This is due to home construction materials, lack of ventilation, sparse green space, and poor access to electrical power and other services.

The African Union has put forward 47 goals and corresponding actions in a 2014 draft report to combat and mitigate climate change in Africa. The International Monetary Fund suggested in 2021 that $50 billion might be necessary to cover the costs of climate change adaptation in Africa.

Greenhouse gas emissions

Africa's per person greenhouse gas emissions are low compared to other continents. Emissions from land use change are uncertain, especially in Central Africa. The main source of uncertainty comes from carbon dioxide fluxes in the LULUCF sector (this acronym stands for land use, land-use change, and forestry).

Impacts

Temperature and weather changes

Observed surface temperatures have generally increased over Africa since the late 19th century to the early 21st century by about 1 °C, but locally as much as 3 °C for minimum temperature in the Sahel at the end of the dry season. Observed precipitation trends indicate spatial and temporal discrepancies as expected. The observed changes in temperature and precipitation vary regionally.

Current climate models (as summarised in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report) predict increases in frequency and intensity of drought and heavy rainfall events. Text was copied from this source, which is available under
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
/ref> They also predict decreases in mean precipitation almost everywhere in Africa, with medium to high confidence. However, local rainfall trends and socio-climatic interactions are likely to manifest in mixed patterns. Therefore, the converging impacts of climate change will vary across the continent. In rural areas, rainfall patterns influence water usage.

A study in 2019 predicted increased dry spell length during wet seasons and increased extreme rainfall rates in Africa. In other words: "both ends of Africa's weather extremes will get more severe". The research found that most climate models will not be able to capture the extent of these changes because they are not convection-permitting at their coarse grid scales.

Sea level rise

In Africa, future population growth amplifies risks from sea level rise. Some 54.2 million people lived in the highly exposed low elevation coastal zones (LECZ) around 2000. This number will effectively double to around 110 million people by 2030. By 2060 it will be around 185 to 230 million people, depending on the extent of population growth. The average regional sea level rise will be around 21 cm by 2060. At that point climate change scenarios will make little difference. But local geography and population trends interact to increase the exposure to hazards like 100-year floods in a complex way.

In the near term, some of the largest displacement is projected to occur in the East Africa region. At least 750,000 people there are likely to be displaced from the coasts between 2020 and 2050. Scientific studies estimate that 12 major African cities would collectively sustain cumulative damages of US$65 billion for the "moderate" climate change scenario RCP4.5 by 2050. These cities are Abidjan, Alexandria, Algiers, Cape Town, Casablanca, Dakar, Dar es Salaam, Durban, Lagos, Lomé, Luanda and Maputo. Under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 the damage would amount to US$86.5 billion. The version of the high-emission scenario with additional impacts from high ice sheet instability would involve up to US$137.5 billion in damages. The damage from these three scenarios accounting additionally for "low-probability, high-damage events" would rise to US$187 billion, US$206 billion and US$397 billion respectively. In these estimates, the Egyptian city of Alexandria alone accounts for around half of this figure. Hundreds of thousands of people in its low-lying areas may already need relocation in the coming decade. Across sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, damage from sea level rise could reach 2–4% of GDP by 2050. However this figure depends on the extent of future economic growth and adaptation.Trisos, C. H., I. O. Adelekan, E. Totin, A. Ayanlade, J. Efitre, A. Gemeda, K. Kalaba, C. Lennard, C. Masao, Y. Mgaya, G. Ngaruiya, D. Olago, N. P. Simpson, and S. Zakieldeen 2022
Chapter 9: Africa
I
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E. S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, New York, US, pp. 2043–2121 , doi=10.1017/9781009325844.011.

In the longer term, Egypt, Mozambique and Tanzania are likely to have the largest number of people affected by annual flooding amongst all African countries. This projection assumes global warming will reach 4 °C by the end of the century. That rise is associated with the RCP8.5 scenario. Under RCP8.5, 10 important cultural sites would be at risk of flooding and erosion by the end of the century. These are the Casbah of Algiers, Carthage Archaeological site, Kerkouane, Leptis Magna Archaeological site, Medina of Sousse, Medina of Tunis, Sabratha Archaeological site, Robben Island, Island of Saint-Louis and Tipasa. A total of 15 Ramsar site