China Shock
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The China shock (or China trade shock) is the impact of rising Chinese exports on manufacturing employment in the United States and Europe after China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001. Studies have estimated that the China trade
shock Shock may refer to: Common uses Healthcare * Acute stress reaction, also known as psychological or mental shock ** Shell shock, soldiers' reaction to battle trauma * Circulatory shock, a medical emergency ** Cardiogenic shock, resulting from ...
reduced U.S. manufacturing employment by 550,000 (explaining about 16% of the total decline in manufacturing employment in the U.S. between 2000 and 2007), 1.8-2.0 million, and 2.0-2.4 million. Losses in manufacturing employment have also been observed in Norway, Spain, Canada, and Germany. Studies have shown that there was "higher unemployment, lower labor force participation, and reduced wages in local labor markets" in U.S. regions that have industries that competed with Chinese industries. A 2023 review of existing economic research concluded that US-China trade since the early 2000s caused aggregate welfare gains in both countries; had winners and losers in the US; and was not a leading cause of manufacturing employment decline in the US. However, economists note that the real harm of the China shock was in the rapid economic changes that came with it for communities and workers. Experts have argued that the China trade shock has ended. In relation to
consumer goods A final good or consumer good is a final product ready for sale that is used by the consumer to satisfy current wants or needs, unlike an intermediate good, which is used to produce other goods. A microwave oven or a bicycle is a final good. W ...
, the China shock largely ended by 2006 or 2007 while indicating that for
capital goods In economics, capital goods or capital are "those durable produced goods that are in turn used as productive inputs for further production" of goods and services. A typical example is the machinery used in a factory. At the macroeconomic level, ...
the effects of Chinese imports to the United States continued up until 2012 and are ongoing in specific product categories. Some politicians have called for protectionism to reverse the China shock, but economists have expressed skepticism that protectionism will bring back manufacturing jobs en masse. Economists have also noted that extreme protectionist measures risks repeating the harms of the China shock by causing rapid economic change for the worse. In 2025, the ''Financial Times'' reported that China was experiencing its own form of a China shock, as employment in labor-intensive manufacturing was declining, as firms were increasingly opting for
automation Automation describes a wide range of technologies that reduce human intervention in processes, mainly by predetermining decision criteria, subprocess relationships, and related actions, as well as embodying those predeterminations in machine ...
or shifting their manufacturing to countries with cheaper labor, such as Vietnam and Indonesia.


Background

In 1991, China only accounted for 1% of total imports to the United States. Innovations in communications and transportation technology in the 1990s made it easier for firms to offshore production to low-wage countries such as China. China's accession to the WTO meant that it had to liberalize its economy, and reduce state interference, which boosted the efficiency of Chinese exporters. As China already had "
most-favored nation In international economic relations and international politics, most favoured nation (MFN) is a status or level of treatment accorded by one state to another in international trade. The term means the country which is the recipient of this treatme ...
" (MFN) status since the 1980s in Europe and the United States, WTO accession did not lead to lower trade barriers. However, China's MFN status had been subject to annual approval by Congress in the United States; research has suggested that this caused uncertainty, and discouraged China-U.S. trade. Economists David Autor, David Dorn and
Gordon H. Hanson Gordon Howard Hanson (born August 5, 1964) is the Peter Wertheim Professor in Urban Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School. Education Hanson received his A.B. from Occidental College in 1986 and his Ph.D. from Massachusetts Institute of Technology ...
, who have extensively studied U.S. labor markets adjustments to trade competition shocks caused by China, supported the
Trans-Pacific Partnership The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), or Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA), was a proposed trade agreement between 12 Pacific Rim countries: Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietn ...
. Autor, Dorn and Hanson argue the adoption of the TPP "would promote trade in knowledge-intensive services in which U.S. companies exert a strong
comparative advantage Comparative advantage in an economic model is the advantage over others in producing a particular Goods (economics), good. A good can be produced at a lower relative opportunity cost or autarky price, i.e. at a lower relative marginal cost prior t ...
" and pressure China to raise regulatory rules and standards to those of TPP members, while "killing the TPP would do little" to bring manufacturing back to the United States.


Economic impact

Studies have shown that while some markets in the United States suffered adverse welfare and labor impacts, American trade led to net gains in employment and welfare over the period 1991–2011. These claims have been disputed by Economists David Autor, David Dorn and
Gordon Hanson Gordon Howard Hanson (born August 5, 1964) is the Peter Wertheim Professor in Urban Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School. Education Hanson received his A.B. from Occidental College in 1986 and his Ph.D. from Massachusetts Institute of Technology ...
, who state that "at the national level, employment has fallen in the US industries more exposed to import competition, as expected, but offsetting employment gains in other industries have yet to materialize." Although Autor, Dorn, and Hanson have documented the adverse effects of Chinese import competition on certain U.S. regions, they have emphasized that these findings reflect the broader impact of economic disruptions, including technological change and recessions, rather than trade alone. They do not dispute the overall economic benefits of free trade. Instead of advocating protectionist measures like
tariffs A tariff or import tax is a duty imposed by a national government, customs territory, or supranational union on imports of goods and is paid by the importer. Exceptionally, an export tax may be levied on exports of goods or raw materials and is ...
, the authors argue that policy responses should focus on helping workers adapt to change. Economist
Douglas Irwin Douglas A. Irwin is the John French Professor of Economics in the Economics Department at Dartmouth College and the author of seven books. He is an expert on both past and present U.S. trade policy, especially policy during the Great Depression. H ...
nuances the paper of Autor, Dorn and Hanson. According to Irwin the China shock was an exceptional and largely one-off event. It coincided with a large-scale shift of labor from agriculture to industry in China, combined with a growing working-age population. Irwin argues that such conditions are unlikely to be repeated, given the slowing pace of urbanization and the now-declining working-age population in China. Moreover, the rise in Chinese imports occurred during a period of falling unemployment in the U.S., which, according to Irwin, indicates that it was not the result of a general demand shortfall. The problem, he contends, lay more in the geographic concentration of manufacturing and the limited ability of workers to move between regions and sectors. Irwin also points to other contributing factors behind the deterioration of the U.S. labor market in the 2000s, including the
2008 financial crisis The 2008 financial crisis, also known as the global financial crisis (GFC), was a major worldwide financial crisis centered in the United States. The causes of the 2008 crisis included excessive speculation on housing values by both homeowners ...
and macroeconomic imbalances such as China's exceptionally high current account surplus. In his view, the China shock does not alter the broad economic consensus that free trade delivers substantial benefits, although it is acknowledged that certain regions or occupational groups can be adversely affected by trade liberalization. In this context, the China shock represents an extreme case. Additional research, including work by Rob Feenstra, highlights the consumer benefits of the China shock, particularly through lower prices that disproportionately benefited low-income households. Part of China's efficiency gains was also due to unilateral reductions in import tariffs on intermediate goods and raw materials, which made Chinese producers more competitive. This development was not the result of U.S. policy, but of internal reforms in China — reforms that Irwin considers positive. A 2017 study found that Germany gained on net from trade with China and Eastern Europe. A 2023 study found that increased wealth in China as a result of trade liberalization boosted the American higher education sector, as more Chinese families sent their children to study at American universities and pay tuition.


Political impact

Studies have linked the effects of the China shock to an increase in populism and a backlash against globalization. Studies have shown that British regions that were more exposed to Chinese import competition were more likely to vote for
Brexit Brexit (, a portmanteau of "Britain" and "Exit") was the Withdrawal from the European Union, withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Brexit officially took place at 23:00 GMT on 31 January 2020 (00:00 1 February ...
in the 2016 referendum. Exposure to the China shock has led to negative views of minorities, in particular among American whites and males. Papers have found that the China shock has contributed to
political polarization Political polarization (spelled ''polarisation'' in British English, Australian English, and New Zealand English) is the divergence of political attitudes away from the center, towards ideological extremes. Scholars distinguish between ideologi ...
. One analysis also found that it contributed to
Donald Trump Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who is the 47th president of the United States. A member of the Republican Party (United States), Republican Party, he served as the 45 ...
's victory in the
2016 presidential election This national electoral calendar for 2016 lists the national/ federal elections held in 2016 in all sovereign states and their dependent territories. By-elections are excluded, though national referendums are included. January *7 January: Kiri ...
: "A counterfactual study of closely contested states suggests that Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania would have elected the Democrat instead of the Republican candidate if, ceteris paribus, the growth in Chinese import penetration had been 50 percent lower than the actual growth during the period of analysis. The Democratic candidate would also have obtained a majority in the electoral college in this counterfactual scenario." In Italy, surges in support for the
Lega Nord Lega Nord (LN; ), whose complete name is (), is a right-wing politics, right-wing, federalism, federalist, populism, populist and conservatism, conservative list of political parties in Italy, political party in Italy. In the run-up to the 201 ...
in the 2010s have been observed in localities where textile mills were undercut by Chinese manufacturers.


Social impact

A 2016 study found that exposure to Chinese import competition led to greater high school graduation rates in the United States. This is possibly because of lower wages and employment opportunities for individuals without high school degrees in regions that competed with China. Economist Samuel Hammond, the director of poverty and welfare policy for the
Niskanen Center The Niskanen Center is an American think tank based in Washington, D.C. that advocates libertarian and market-oriented principles regarding environmentalism, immigration reform, civil liberties, and an effective welfare state. Named after Willi ...
, has argued that the signing into law of
Permanent Normal Trade Relations The status of permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) is a legal designation in the United States for free trade with a foreign state. The designation was changed from ''most favored nation'' (MFN) to ''normal trade relations'' by Section 5003 of ...
(PNTR) with China on October 10, 2000, and the subsequent accession of China to the WTO has had wide reaching social implications. He states that the "PNTR has been implicated in some of the most significant and distressing trends of American life in this century: millions of well-paying manufacturing jobs lost; declining family formation and rising
deaths of despair A disease of despair is one of three classes of behavior-related medical conditions that increase in groups of people who experience despair due to a sense that their long-term social and economic prospects are bleak. The three disease types are ...
; soaring real-estate prices and medieval levels of urban inequality; increased
political polarization Political polarization (spelled ''polarisation'' in British English, Australian English, and New Zealand English) is the divergence of political attitudes away from the center, towards ideological extremes. Scholars distinguish between ideologi ...
and populist movements, left and right; and faltering faith in the power of
liberal democracy Liberal democracy, also called Western-style democracy, or substantive democracy, is a form of government that combines the organization of a democracy with ideas of liberalism, liberal political philosophy. Common elements within a liberal dem ...
to respond to these and related challenges. To pin all this on a single trade agreement would be a step too far, of course. And yet the imprint of what's come to be known as the "China shock" can be seen on all these trends, either through its first-order effects, or its reverberations through the
body politic The body politic is a polity—such as a city, realm, or state—considered metaphorically as a physical body. Historically, the sovereign is typically portrayed as the body's head, and the analogy may also be extended to other anatomical part ...
." According to two studies, trade-related job losses contribute to greater military enlistment in the United States.


See also

*
China and the World Trade Organization China became a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) on 11 December 2001, after the agreement of the Ministerial Conference. The admission was preceded by a lengthy process of negotiations and required significant changes to the Chinese e ...


Further reading

* Caliendo, Lorenzo; Parro, Fernando (2023). " Lessons from US–China Trade Relations". ''Annual Review of Economics''. 15 (1)


References

{{reflist Foreign trade of China World Trade Organization