Causal layered analysis (CLA) is a
technique used in
strategic planning
Strategic planning is an organization's process of defining its strategy or direction, and making decisions on allocating its resources to attain strategic goals.
It may also extend to control mechanisms for guiding the implementation of the s ...
,
futures studies
Futures studies, futures research, futurism or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social and technological advancement, and other environmental trends, often for the purpose of exploring how people will l ...
and
foresight to more effectively shape the future.
The technique was pioneered by
Sohail Inayatullah, a
Pakistani-Australian futures studies
Futures studies, futures research, futurism or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social and technological advancement, and other environmental trends, often for the purpose of exploring how people will l ...
researcher.
Theory
Causal layered analysis works by identifying many different levels, and attempting to make synchronized changes at all levels to create a coherent new future. Inayatullah's original paper
[ as well as his ]TEDx
TED Conferences, LLC (Technology, Entertainment, Design) is an American-Canadian non-profit media organization that posts international talks online for free distribution under the slogan "ideas worth spreading". TED was founded by Richard Sau ...
talk identify four levels:
# The litany: This includes quantitative trends, often exaggerated and used for political purposes. The result could be a feeling of apathy, helplessness, or projected action. Inayatullah calls this "the conventional level of futures research which can readily create a politics of fear."[
# Social causes, including economic, cultural, political, and historical factors.
# Structure and the discourse that legitimizes and supports the structure.
# Metaphor and myth
]
History of research
CLA was first introduced explicitly as a futures research technique by Sohail Inayatullah in a 1998 article for ''Futures
Futures may mean:
Finance
*Futures contract, a tradable financial derivatives contract
*Futures exchange, a financial market where futures contracts are traded
* ''Futures'' (magazine), an American finance magazine
Music
* ''Futures'' (album), a ...
'' that would come to be widely cited.[ Later, Inayatullah would edit the CLA Reader, that featured chapters from a number of futurists and practitioners describing their experience with CLA.
Inayatullah's work on CLA was examined in a book by Jose W. Ramos in 2003.
A 2008 article by Chris Riedy examined the similarities, differences, and possible combinations of CLA and Ken Wilber's integral theory.
A 2010 article by Gary P. Hampson explored the relationship between integral futures and CLA further, and also considered Richard Slaughter's critique of CLA.
Sohail Inayatullah and Ivana Milojevic have published an update in 2015.]
See also
* Futures techniques
Futures techniques used in the multi-disciplinary field of futurology by futurists in Americas and Australasia, and futurology by futurologists in EU, include a diverse range of forecasting methods, including anticipatory thinking, backcasting, ...
* Backcasting
Backcasting is a planning method that starts with defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify policies and programs that will connect that specified future to the present. The fundamentals of the method were outlined by John B. ...
References
{{reflist
Futures techniques